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FILE PHOTO: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping walk during a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia March 21, 2023.
Putin visits his pal in Beijing
The message is clear: Russia and China stand together, and recent pressure on Beijing to rethink the partnership hasn’t worked. Not that anyone believed US and EU requests to limit the export of goods Russia might use in Ukraine went anywhere but the circular file.
Peek under the hood of the Putin-Xi partnership, however, and you’ll see the gears could use some grease. For instance, Putin would like Xi to commit to the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which would help him deal with Western sanctions. Xi has historically been less enthusiastic about the project (he’s already getting Russian gas at a steep discount, after all).
There’s also North Korea, which has grown considerably closer to Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine. China isn’t thrilled to see Russia butting in on what it considers its sphere of influence but has taken a soft approach thus far. In January, Putin accepted an invitation from Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un to visit, and we’re watching for a stop in Pyongyang, which would likely tweak Xi. Even if it doesn’t happen this time around, Eurasia Group analyst Jeremy Chan says “it's highly likely that Putin will visit North Korea by the end of 2024.”
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives at the Beijing Capital International Airport, in Beijing, China, April 25, 2024.
Blinken meets with Xi, but no breakthroughs
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken brought up concerns over China's support for Russia with his counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing on Friday, before meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Blinken’s visit is largely meant to advance the mutual goal of stabilizing the relationship, and Xi said he wants to be "partners, not rivals" with the United States.
As Blinken landed in Shanghai for the first leg of his trip earlier this week, the Biden administration signed bills providing Taiwan with $8 billion in military aid and starting a process that could result in a ban of the popular video app TikTok in the US unless its Chinese owner, ByteDance, sells. The day before, the State Department released its annual human rights review, which criticized Chinese treatment of Muslim minorities.
Once he landed, Blinken pressed Shanghai Communist Party Secretary Chen Jining on treating US companies fairly. Meanwhile, he told students at NYU’s Shanghai campus that the cultural ties being built between both countries are of utmost importance.
Despite the many possible pratfalls during the first leg, China’s response has been fairly milquetoast. Spokesperson Wang Wenbin said, “We hope that the US side will respect the principle of fair competition, abide by WTO rules, and work with China to create favorable [trade] conditions.” Hardly “Wolf Warrior” stuff, and Wang said Friday that ties are “beginning to stabilize.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Putin-Xi “friendship” threatens Arctic
A new report quoted in the Globe and Mail suggests how Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping’s “friendship without limits” is progressing: Russia is giving very generously in exchange for China buying its oil.
The report by Strider Technologies says China is gaining a major foothold in the Arctic as Russia shifts its defense priorities to the war in Ukraine. Since Putin’s invasion, 234 Chinese-owned companies have registered to operate in the Russian-controlled Arctic, Strider said, an 87% increase on the two years prior. Besides resource exploitation and investment aimed at developing Russia’s Northern Sea shipping route, the two have been deepening security ties in the form of joint exercises in the Bering Sea.
A report by Canada’s Senate Committee on national security, defense, and veterans’ affairs last year noted the worrying implications of increased collaboration in the Arctic by Russia and China.
Canada has committed to spending $38.6 billion over 20 years to modernizing the North American Aerospace Defense Command, or NORAD, including investing in new over-the-horizon radar installations, and infrastructure to house the 88 F-35 Lightning fighter jets it has on order from the US.
In the first of its 23 recommendations, the committee called on the government to include an Arctic section in its imminent defense policy statement that recognizes the situation in the North is deteriorating and offers a plan to deal “on an expeditious basis” with threats that could enter North America through the Arctic.
Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with China Media Group anchor Wang Guan
Putin’s pessimistic prospects in Beijing
President Vladimir Putin – on a rare venture outside Russia – is in China for a forum marking the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative. While Putin hopes to deepen the countries’ “no limits” partnership, what he really wants is Chinese President Xi Jinping’s promise to build the Power of Siberia 2, a massive pipeline project that would transport natural gas from western Siberia to China.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, meanwhile, met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on Monday in Beijing, where the two discussed resolving the war in Ukraine with “political and diplomatic methods” and the war between Israel and Hamas. They didn’t outline any concrete agreements, which may become a theme this week.
The Belt and Road Initiative, so promising a decade ago, is looking worse for wear. At its peak in 2018, Beijing was pumping nearly $60 billion a year into cargo ports, railways, power plants, and much more across Africa, Asia, and Latin America, and even attracting some interest from European economies.
But one global pandemic later, and the picture isn’t so pretty: Beijing is holding a ton of debt from developing nations that look like they may struggle to repay while China faces domestic debt problems. The political dividends in Europe have largely vanished as well, with the only G7 country to sign on to BRI, Italy, now looking for the exit.
As for Putin’s pipeline dream? The Russian leader wants it more than Xi, and China is hardly starved for energy these days. US and European sanctions on Russian oil exports have netted Chinese importers a cool $10 billion in savings thanks to steep discounts. Besides, publicly putting cash in Putin’s pocket would be hard for Xi to explain to US President Joe Biden should they meet as expected in San Francisco next month.
Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a joint statement with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
China’s delicate dance on Ukraine
Over 18 months of war, President Xi Jinping’s pledge of “friendship without limits” with Russia has repeatedly been tested. China blames the West for Russia’s invasion and continues to buy Russia’s oil at discount prices, but it has also refused to endorse Russian claims on Ukrainian land and offers itself as a neutral player that wants peace.
Last weekend, Saudi Arabia hosted more than 40 countries for talks on how to end the war. Russia, which was not invited, dismissed the gathering as pointless. But Chinese officials, who did attend, said those present helped to “consolidate international consensus” on peace and signaled a willingness to participate in more such meetings. Ukrainian officials hailed China’s words, the US welcomed its participation, and EU diplomats said China’s presence had underscored Russia’s deepening isolation.
On Monday, China and Russia each announced a phone call between Wang Yi and Sergey Lavrov, their respective foreign ministers. Each side reported that the two men spoke about the war and their common interests. Neither side mentioned the weekend’s talks. China says Wang reiterated China’s intention to “uphold an independent and impartial stance” on the war. Russia says the call “once again confirmed the unity” of Russia and China.
China could lead a credible effort to end the war, but it would have to use its economic and political leverage to persuade both the Russian and Ukrainian governments to make concessions they’re still dead-set against making. It matters that China would show up for talks that its Russian friends weren’t invited to, but Ukraine remains a long way from sustainable peace.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
The Saudis want to be peacemakers in Ukraine
The Ukraine diplomatic sweepstakes continue with representatives from more than 40 countries set to gather this weekend in the Saudi city of Jeddah to try and forge a path towards peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Kyiv will attend the conference, but Russia wasn’t invited – though the Kremlin says it’ll watch the shindig closely.
This event comes after a similar summit was held in Copenhagen in June. So how is this one different?
First, after balking at the Danes’ invite last time, China has now agreed to attend. That’s a big win for Ukraine, which knows that Beijing has Putin’s ear. It’s also a win for the Saudis, who want the conference to be viewed by the West and Russia alike as a serious diplomatic forum.
Given that China continues to buy copious amounts of Russian oil and gas, helping the Russian economy stay afloat despite Western sanctions, having Beiijng be part of a broader peace push is crucial.
“China is the one country that has both the carrots and the sticks that can persuade Putin and Zelensky to accept the tough-to-swallow compromises needed to make peace,” my colleague Willis Sparks recently wrote.
What’s more, a number of so-called non-aligned countries – including India, Brazil and South Africa – that have so far refused to acquiesce to Western demands that they ditch relations with the Kremlin, are also set to participate in the talks. Though they attended the summit in Copenhagen, the contours of this event will no doubt be different given that it’s being hosted by a country with close ties to the Kremlin. (To be sure, Denmark, an EU member state, is hardly a neutral arbiter.)
So, what’s on the agenda? There’s so far no blueprint for these talks, but Kyiv previously handed down a 10-point peace plan, which demands that Russia hand over occupied Ukrainian territory – a clear nonstarter for Moscow. The Ukrainian plan also calls for Russian troops to leave Ukraine before peace talks begin, something the Kremlin does not seem inclined to do.
For Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is trying to rehabilitate his image after years of very bad PR and boost his profile as a legitimate international interlocutor, there’s a lot riding on this summit. Still, for now at least, Ukraine and Russia seem too far apart to imagine any significant progress.
Why Russia is fighting in Ukraine without any allies
When it comes to the war in Ukraine, Russia stands alone.
From the Russian perspective, the Ukraine invasion is a battle for the survival of the country against NATO and the collective West, who, the Russia says, wants to destroy Russia and eliminate its influence around the world. But given the fact that virtually no allies have joined Russia in a fight it views as perfectly legitimate, does the Kremlin need a sense of reality and be more modest about what it thinks it can accomplish in the region?
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, former director of the Carnegie Moscow Center and Kremlin ally, Dmitri Trenin, lays out the Russian view of the war and why the Kremlin feels it is fighting a war of existential importance.
“Russian is being ganged up against because of its determination to protect and defend its own national interest,” Trenin argues, “That’s how it’s seen.”
According to Trenin, Russia had no expectation of its formal allies, like Kazakhstan, picking up arms and fighting in Ukraine. The same goes for China, who Trenin says is major supporter of the Russian economy, but needs to protect its own interests militarily. Despite being increasingly isolated on the national stage, Trenin says that the stakes are so high, Russia will likely keep fighting until the bitter end.
“Either it protects its national security interest in Ukraine and wide in Europe’s east,” Trenin says, “Or the future of Russia will be very bleak.”
Watch the full interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on public television nationwide. Check local listings.
Ukrainian service members fire a mortar towards Russian troops outside the frontline town of Bakhmut, in Donetsk region, Ukraine March 6, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Battle for Bakhmut, Xi’s diplomatic muscle, AUKUS sub deal
The Bakhmut killing field
Bakhmut, home to about 75,000 people before the war, has become an urban killing field. Western intelligence agencies say up to 30,000 Russians have died or been seriously injured in the fight to take this town. Ukrainian casualties, harder to estimate, are also running high.
Russians appear to be fighting mainly to achieve some victory following months of setbacks followed by stalemate. They also hope the eventual capture of this town can boost their chances of advancing on larger cities in other parts of Donetsk province, though some analysts say they won’t have the manpower or firepower to advance beyond Bakhmut anytime soon. Adding to Russia’s complications, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War argues that the country’s defense ministry has likely pushed large numbers of Wagner Group mercenaries to the deadliest sites of fighting in Bakhmut to reduce the Kremlin influence of Wagner chief and frequent critic of the Russian military Yevgeny Prigozhin by thinning out his force.
Though badly outnumbered, Ukrainian forces have been slow to surrender Bakhmut because they want to inflict as much damage as possible on Russian forces ahead of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive in the coming weeks. For now, the killing continues.
Xi’s upcoming Moscow trip
Just weeks after releasing a 12-point peace plan for Ukraine, China’s President Xi Jinping is reportedly set to meet with Vladimir Putin in Moscow as soon as next week. This would be Xi’s second trip outside mainland China since lifting the draconian zero-COVID policy in December.
Xi, a close mate of Putin’s who has benefited from buying up cheap Russian oil and gas since the war broke out, has sought to position himself as a key arbiter between Russia and Ukraine. He is not known to have spoken directly to President Volodymyr Zelensky since Russia’s onslaught began one year ago, but there are reports that Xi and Zelensky could finally connect virtually next week.
Despite maintaining warm relations with Russia and voting against UN measures condemning Moscow’s aggression, Xi isn’t necessarily a fan of the ongoing war, which continues to put pressure on the global economy and fuel inflation, making it harder for poor debtors to repay their loans to Beijing. What’s more, just days after brokering a diplomatic breakthrough between foes Iran and Saudi Arabia, Beijing is likely feeling chuffed at the growing perception of its increasing diplomatic clout … at the US’ expense.
AUKUS phase two
Remember the 2021 AUKUS deal between the US, UK, and Australia? That’s the pact that caused France to temporarily withdraw its ambassadors from Washington and Canberra after the three allies signed a security alliance focused on the Indo-Pacific and ditched plans for Australia to buy French-made submarines.
On Monday, President Joe Biden, UK PM Rishi Sunak, and Australia’s Anthony Albanese met in San Diego and took the agreement to the next level by expanding the arms and tech deal. Australia is now set to buy nuclear-powered submarines from the US, and will co-build a new submarine with the UK as it retires its current fleet over the next decade. This is a huge deal, marking the first time the US will share its nuclear technology for these vessels since it did so with Britain in 1958 as part of a defense pact.
The arming of Australia is yet another signal that Washington is expanding its military presence in the Indo-Pacific and that London is positioning itself on a greater collision course with Beijing going forward. Crucially, because Australia will rely on Washington for tech support in operating the US-made submarines, some have expressed concern that Canberra’s military sovereignty could be at risk.
Indeed, it’s a good time to be in the weapons business: Sunak has announced that the UK will ramp up its defense spending by £5 billion over the next two years to deal with a range of national security threats – code for China and Russia.
An unhappy Beijing hit back Tuesday, accusing the three states of "walking further and further down the path of error and danger."