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Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a joint statement with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
China’s delicate dance on Ukraine
Over 18 months of war, President Xi Jinping’s pledge of “friendship without limits” with Russia has repeatedly been tested. China blames the West for Russia’s invasion and continues to buy Russia’s oil at discount prices, but it has also refused to endorse Russian claims on Ukrainian land and offers itself as a neutral player that wants peace.
Last weekend, Saudi Arabia hosted more than 40 countries for talks on how to end the war. Russia, which was not invited, dismissed the gathering as pointless. But Chinese officials, who did attend, said those present helped to “consolidate international consensus” on peace and signaled a willingness to participate in more such meetings. Ukrainian officials hailed China’s words, the US welcomed its participation, and EU diplomats said China’s presence had underscored Russia’s deepening isolation.
On Monday, China and Russia each announced a phone call between Wang Yi and Sergey Lavrov, their respective foreign ministers. Each side reported that the two men spoke about the war and their common interests. Neither side mentioned the weekend’s talks. China says Wang reiterated China’s intention to “uphold an independent and impartial stance” on the war. Russia says the call “once again confirmed the unity” of Russia and China.
China could lead a credible effort to end the war, but it would have to use its economic and political leverage to persuade both the Russian and Ukrainian governments to make concessions they’re still dead-set against making. It matters that China would show up for talks that its Russian friends weren’t invited to, but Ukraine remains a long way from sustainable peace.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
The Saudis want to be peacemakers in Ukraine
The Ukraine diplomatic sweepstakes continue with representatives from more than 40 countries set to gather this weekend in the Saudi city of Jeddah to try and forge a path towards peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Kyiv will attend the conference, but Russia wasn’t invited – though the Kremlin says it’ll watch the shindig closely.
This event comes after a similar summit was held in Copenhagen in June. So how is this one different?
First, after balking at the Danes’ invite last time, China has now agreed to attend. That’s a big win for Ukraine, which knows that Beijing has Putin’s ear. It’s also a win for the Saudis, who want the conference to be viewed by the West and Russia alike as a serious diplomatic forum.
Given that China continues to buy copious amounts of Russian oil and gas, helping the Russian economy stay afloat despite Western sanctions, having Beiijng be part of a broader peace push is crucial.
“China is the one country that has both the carrots and the sticks that can persuade Putin and Zelensky to accept the tough-to-swallow compromises needed to make peace,” my colleague Willis Sparks recently wrote.
What’s more, a number of so-called non-aligned countries – including India, Brazil and South Africa – that have so far refused to acquiesce to Western demands that they ditch relations with the Kremlin, are also set to participate in the talks. Though they attended the summit in Copenhagen, the contours of this event will no doubt be different given that it’s being hosted by a country with close ties to the Kremlin. (To be sure, Denmark, an EU member state, is hardly a neutral arbiter.)
So, what’s on the agenda? There’s so far no blueprint for these talks, but Kyiv previously handed down a 10-point peace plan, which demands that Russia hand over occupied Ukrainian territory – a clear nonstarter for Moscow. The Ukrainian plan also calls for Russian troops to leave Ukraine before peace talks begin, something the Kremlin does not seem inclined to do.
For Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is trying to rehabilitate his image after years of very bad PR and boost his profile as a legitimate international interlocutor, there’s a lot riding on this summit. Still, for now at least, Ukraine and Russia seem too far apart to imagine any significant progress.
Why Russia is fighting in Ukraine without any allies
When it comes to the war in Ukraine, Russia stands alone.
From the Russian perspective, the Ukraine invasion is a battle for the survival of the country against NATO and the collective West, who, the Russia says, wants to destroy Russia and eliminate its influence around the world. But given the fact that virtually no allies have joined Russia in a fight it views as perfectly legitimate, does the Kremlin need a sense of reality and be more modest about what it thinks it can accomplish in the region?
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, former director of the Carnegie Moscow Center and Kremlin ally, Dmitri Trenin, lays out the Russian view of the war and why the Kremlin feels it is fighting a war of existential importance.
“Russian is being ganged up against because of its determination to protect and defend its own national interest,” Trenin argues, “That’s how it’s seen.”
According to Trenin, Russia had no expectation of its formal allies, like Kazakhstan, picking up arms and fighting in Ukraine. The same goes for China, who Trenin says is major supporter of the Russian economy, but needs to protect its own interests militarily. Despite being increasingly isolated on the national stage, Trenin says that the stakes are so high, Russia will likely keep fighting until the bitter end.
“Either it protects its national security interest in Ukraine and wide in Europe’s east,” Trenin says, “Or the future of Russia will be very bleak.”
Watch the full interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on public television nationwide. Check local listings.
Ukrainian service members fire a mortar towards Russian troops outside the frontline town of Bakhmut, in Donetsk region, Ukraine March 6, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Battle for Bakhmut, Xi’s diplomatic muscle, AUKUS sub deal
The Bakhmut killing field
Bakhmut, home to about 75,000 people before the war, has become an urban killing field. Western intelligence agencies say up to 30,000 Russians have died or been seriously injured in the fight to take this town. Ukrainian casualties, harder to estimate, are also running high.
Russians appear to be fighting mainly to achieve some victory following months of setbacks followed by stalemate. They also hope the eventual capture of this town can boost their chances of advancing on larger cities in other parts of Donetsk province, though some analysts say they won’t have the manpower or firepower to advance beyond Bakhmut anytime soon. Adding to Russia’s complications, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War argues that the country’s defense ministry has likely pushed large numbers of Wagner Group mercenaries to the deadliest sites of fighting in Bakhmut to reduce the Kremlin influence of Wagner chief and frequent critic of the Russian military Yevgeny Prigozhin by thinning out his force.
Though badly outnumbered, Ukrainian forces have been slow to surrender Bakhmut because they want to inflict as much damage as possible on Russian forces ahead of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive in the coming weeks. For now, the killing continues.
Xi’s upcoming Moscow trip
Just weeks after releasing a 12-point peace plan for Ukraine, China’s President Xi Jinping is reportedly set to meet with Vladimir Putin in Moscow as soon as next week. This would be Xi’s second trip outside mainland China since lifting the draconian zero-COVID policy in December.
Xi, a close mate of Putin’s who has benefited from buying up cheap Russian oil and gas since the war broke out, has sought to position himself as a key arbiter between Russia and Ukraine. He is not known to have spoken directly to President Volodymyr Zelensky since Russia’s onslaught began one year ago, but there are reports that Xi and Zelensky could finally connect virtually next week.
Despite maintaining warm relations with Russia and voting against UN measures condemning Moscow’s aggression, Xi isn’t necessarily a fan of the ongoing war, which continues to put pressure on the global economy and fuel inflation, making it harder for poor debtors to repay their loans to Beijing. What’s more, just days after brokering a diplomatic breakthrough between foes Iran and Saudi Arabia, Beijing is likely feeling chuffed at the growing perception of its increasing diplomatic clout … at the US’ expense.
AUKUS phase two
Remember the 2021 AUKUS deal between the US, UK, and Australia? That’s the pact that caused France to temporarily withdraw its ambassadors from Washington and Canberra after the three allies signed a security alliance focused on the Indo-Pacific and ditched plans for Australia to buy French-made submarines.
On Monday, President Joe Biden, UK PM Rishi Sunak, and Australia’s Anthony Albanese met in San Diego and took the agreement to the next level by expanding the arms and tech deal. Australia is now set to buy nuclear-powered submarines from the US, and will co-build a new submarine with the UK as it retires its current fleet over the next decade. This is a huge deal, marking the first time the US will share its nuclear technology for these vessels since it did so with Britain in 1958 as part of a defense pact.
The arming of Australia is yet another signal that Washington is expanding its military presence in the Indo-Pacific and that London is positioning itself on a greater collision course with Beijing going forward. Crucially, because Australia will rely on Washington for tech support in operating the US-made submarines, some have expressed concern that Canberra’s military sovereignty could be at risk.
Indeed, it’s a good time to be in the weapons business: Sunak has announced that the UK will ramp up its defense spending by £5 billion over the next two years to deal with a range of national security threats – code for China and Russia.
An unhappy Beijing hit back Tuesday, accusing the three states of "walking further and further down the path of error and danger."
China-US tensions over COVID origins & Russia's war
But a couple of points here. First, this lab-leak concept was one that would get you banned on social media if you came out with it a year ago. And it just goes to show how you can have a dominant narrative that gets picked up politically and suddenly no one's allowed to ask questions anymore. That doesn't make it a conspiracy theory, it means that people are still trying to understand where it is, what's going on. There was so much that was uncertain about this disease in the early days. One of the things that annoyed me about Fauci, who I've interviewed a couple of times myself, gotten to know him a bit, is the fact that he came out feeling like he was so certain in some of his early communications, on things that he obviously wasn't certain about, and ended up undermining and de-legitimizing science and the medical community in the US in a way that we really cannot afford to do so.
Saying you don't know something is okay. I mean, back last May, I published the fact that I had no idea if it came from a lab or if it came from a wet market. What was clear to me is that it was getting politicized. What was clear from the scientific community is that the disease had not been bioengineered, that it was an accident that it came out. What was also clear is the Chinese lied to their own citizens and internationally, about the virus's origins, when they knew that there was human-human transmission. They lied to the WHO, the World Health Organization, and as a consequence, it was much worse for everyone. And they're still not allowing the WHO or others to investigate appropriately the origins. The fact that the country that the virus came from is not willing to be transparent with the global scientific community. I mean, thankfully there were a bunch of doctors and scientists in China that had humanity and said, "We got to get this out no matter what." Or it would've been even worse.
But it's an enormous problem when politics intervenes in what needs to be just a follow-the-science situation. And that's true on climate, it's true on the pandemic, it's true in so many areas of the world. And in that regard, we haven't changed much at all from today through the beginnings of the pandemic. This, of course, is going to make the Americans feel tougher about relations with China. That is also true on the back of China embracing, welcoming Belarus President/Dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, completely illegitimate leader of that country, using all sorts of repression and force against his own domestic opposition. No free press of course. Again, not surprising for the Chinese at all, but one of Russia's key allies, this on the back of Wang Yi visiting Moscow, and what I expect, relatively soon, will be an announcement that Xi Jinping is going to Moscow. There is a greater comfort of these two countries working more closely together.
Does that mean that the Chinese will provide weapons directly for Russia? I don't think so. I think that's indeed why the Americans put the Chinese on notice. They had intelligence that the Chinese were considering sending drones over. The UK, the NATO Secretary General, also making those statements very strongly. The Europeans and the Americans would have a very different reaction if the Chinese decided to go ahead and put those weapons forward. Now diplomatically, what the Chinese have been saying to the Europeans behind closed doors is, "Look, you guys are providing all these weapons. You're escalating. We are showing restraint." Having said that, if you want to call BS on what the Chinese are saying, you say, "Look, a majority of the world's countries recognize, and have recognized for three straight General Assembly resolutions, that this is an illegal invasion that needs to be condemned and ended immediately. The Chinese have decided that they're going to be neutral and abstain. But most of the world's countries, even the Global South, do not agree with China on this.
That's important, because if the Chinese were to provide weapons to the country that actually invaded, illegally, against the will of the General Assembly, the Chinese are putting themselves in the position of supporting a rogue state. And that is not a position China wants to be in. Not a country that needs economic support and integration from all of the world, not just countries they dominate economically. So I believe that the Chinese may have been fooling around with the idea of providing some weapons to Russia, may have been floating that because they wanted more influence with their own 12-point peace deal. But I would be very surprised if they proceed in providing that support. That's a good thing, in the context of US-China news that right now have very few positive headlines that we're talking about.
So that's it for me. Hope everyone's well, I'll talk to you all real soon.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow.
What’s in China's Ukraine peace plan?
As the world marked one year of war in Ukraine on Friday, China's President Xi Jinping – positioning himself as mediator-in-chief – presented a peace plan for the war-torn country. Beijing, maintaining its self-described neutral status, released a 12-point document calling for both Russia and Ukraine to end hostilities and move towards the negotiating table in hopes of “reach[ing] a comprehensive ceasefire.” To date, Beijing’s support of Russia has mostly been rhetorical and symbolic.
Xi urged the West to stop “unilateral sanctions” and called for “abandoning the Cold War mentality,” likely a reference to the US-led NATO alliance. What's more, the plan also cautioned against expanding the NATO bloc, though most of the principles were presented in general terms. Crucially, in what’s widely perceived as a veiled threat to Moscow, Beijing issued a warning against the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
So, what was the reaction? Ukraine’s top diplomat in China called the paper “a good sign,” while also reiterating Kyiv’s long-held view that Russia should immediately withdraw from Ukrainian territory, a position echoed by President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday in a video marking the anniversary of the war: “We are strong. We are ready for anything,” Zelensky said.
While the light-on-detail Chinese plan is unlikely to be endorsed by the US or EU, particularly after Washington recently warned that Beijing might send heavy weapons to Russia and a new German report found that Russia is in negotiations to buy Chinese drones – the overtures may play very well in the Global South. Indeed, much of the developing world has benefited from Russian and Chinese investment and isn’t on board with the conflict – a fact that was reiterated Thursday when many African and several Asian states abstained from a UN resolution calling for Russian troops to leave Ukraine.
Xi also plans to meet with Vladimir Putin in Russia in the months ahead. We’ll be watching to see whether he applies more pressure for the Kremlin to back down as Beijing seeks to help stabilize the global economy and its domestic economic performance after years of stagnation linked to its zero-COVID policy.
Photo composite of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping
What We’re Watching: China’s budding diplomacy, Biden’s border control, Russia’s big plans
What’s next for Russia & China?
Russia and China broadcast their friendship to the world on Wednesday as the West freaked out about the possibility of Beijing turning to arm Moscow’s troops in Ukraine. After meeting Chinese top diplomat Wang Yi in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin said that strong Russia-China ties are “important for stabilizing the international situation.” (A tad rich coming from the guy who upended geopolitics by invading Ukraine a year ago.) Putin also confirmed that Xi Jinping would visit Moscow for a summit in the coming months. Wang, for his part, clarified that while their famous partnership “without limits” is not directed against any other nation, it certainly should not be subject to external pressure. He said both countries support “multipolarity and democratization of international relations” – in other words, not a US-led liberal international order. Still, no matter what Western governments say, the Chinese are not so willing to break ties with the US and its allies, mainly because Beijing's trade relations are too important. Meanwhile, we wonder whether the current status of the Russia-China relationship — friends with benefits but complicated — will blossom into a marriage (of convenience) or end in a bad breakup. What we know for sure is that China is getting more involved in the Ukraine conflict generally. Learn more here.
Biden’s tough new move on immigration
The Biden administration this week unveiled a new hardline immigration plan that will likely come into effect after the current pandemic-era immigration policy, known as Title 42, lapses on May 11. It would then stay in place for two years. Under the measure, first revealed last month, asylum-seekers who cross the US southern border illegally or who fail to apply for asylum in the first country they cross through will be banned from applying for asylum in America. This comes after Biden’s team last month introduced a new policy, whereby migrants from Nicaragua, Haiti, Cuba, in addition to Venezuela, would be eligible for “parole” – meaning temporary two-year work visas – only if they apply for asylum from outside the US and if they have a US sponsor. The new plan mirrors a similar policy introduced by former President Donald Trump that was ultimately blocked by the courts. Rights groups, citing a potential threat to humanitarian protections, say they will seek legal action again. Biden has been struggling to contain an uptick in migrants arriving at the southern border in recent months – and the subsequent political backlash. But this plan will infuriate the left flank of the Democratic Party whose support Biden needs as the 2024 presidential race gets underway.
Russia looks beyond Ukraine?
Ukraine is not the only piece of former Soviet ground that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin might like to recapture. Belarus, allied with Russia as part of a “union state” since 1999, has seen Kremlin influence within its borders grow since strongman President Aleksandr Lukashenko called on Putin for help with domestic protests that broke out in response to a rigged 2020 election. Lukashenko has so far resisted pressure from Putin to commit Belarusian troops to the war in Ukraine, but he has allowed Russia to use his country as a staging ground for invasion. This week, a consortium of journalists representing Yahoo News, Germany’s Süddeutsche Zeitung, and other media organizations published a document they say was obtained from inside Putin’s government that details a Russian plan to essentially annex Belarus by 2030. The 17-page report, titled "Strategic Goals of the Russian Federation in Belarus" and completed in the summer of 2021, calls for Russian infiltration of Belarus’ politics, economy, and military. Like Ukraine, Belarus is situated on land that has sometimes been ruled by Moscow, and it serves as a forward buffer against further NATO advance toward Russian borders. It’s also consistent with a Kremlin announcement this week that created uncertainty over Russian recognition of the independence of Moldova, another former Soviet Republic. Moldova’s pro-Western President Maia Sandu and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky recently alleged a Russian plan to organize a coup in Moldova.
China to shake up Russia-Ukraine war
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How big of a deal is Russia pulling out of New START?
Well, this is of course is the nuclear agreement that the Americans and others have already been accusing the Russians not of being in compliance with. The nature, of course, of the US-Russia relationship right now is completely broken. There's no high level engagement or diplomacy. It is notable that Putin said in his annual State of the Union speech, the one that he essentially canceled last year, that he is suspending Russian participation in START, but not withdrawing. I don't think it's a nothingburger. I think it matters because generally nuclear temperatures have been going up over the past months, but this is not a particularly large issue.
Is China's potential support of Russia in Ukraine a "red line" for the West?
Yes, this is a much bigger issue. We are talking about a peace deal that the Chinese are saying that they're going to announce in short order. President Xi planning a big speech on February 24th, which is the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion. That's unprecedented for China to suddenly be taking a leadership role, a public leadership role, on an issue that is not of primary national security concern to the Chinese self.
It's not Taiwan, not South China Sea. It's not their backyard. It's between two major combatants, the Russians, the Ukrainians, the Americans, and NATO, of course, being involved by proxy. I think it's a very big deal. If the Chinese were not just to go ahead with their peace deal, which will be seen as performative and won't get any traction from NATO or from Ukraine, but actually do provide weapons to the Russians, we will see secondary sanctions from the West. And the Europeans will not like that, so it could put a lot of pressure on the coalition's unity. We'll see pressure to escalate the weapon systems that the West is putting in place. We'll also see real challenges in US-China relations directly. Secondary sanctions against the Chinese from the US is almost certain, as I said.
Turkey is still facing humanitarian crisis as aftershocks continue to hit the region, are they receiving enough aid?
Another six Turks dead from new aftershocks just in the past hours. They said they need $1.4 billion in immediate support. Total amount committed so far looks to be less than 20% of that. Been a big outpouring internationally, lots of countries participating. That certainly helps in terms of Turkey's geopolitical position. But in terms of helping the people on the ground and quick reconstruction, making the rescue effort works, no, it's not where it should be and that's unfortunate. And almost 50,000 Turks already known to be dead from that devastating, devastating earthquake. The pictures, the videos, have just been absolutely horrifying.
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