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China's President Xi Jinping
China’s leaders head for the beach
If the conversation is free-flowing – or as close to that as the party leadership gets – they’ll have plenty to talk about. China’s post-COVID economy is still stumbling. Its relations with Russia, Europe, and the United States have only become more complicated since last year’s meeting. (Xi is dispatching a special envoy to this weekend’s Ukraine war summit in Saudi Arabia.) A rumored scandal appears to have forced Xi to fire his handpicked foreign minister. He also recently replaced the leaders of the military’s nuclear missile force, a rare and unexplained move. And a typhoon, which created China’s heaviest rainfall in 140 years, has created a flood emergency across much of the country’s north. Tens of thousands near Beidaihe have been evacuated, but the resort itself appears unaffected.
But when discussing these recent events and problems, will President Xi welcome a free exchange of views? This is a leader who has amassed power on a scale China hasn’t seen in half a century. Publicly, any reported news from Beidaihe will be limited to assurances of confidence and unity from the top of China’s pyramid. Any private differences of opinion are almost certain to remain a secret.
A police officer stands at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
China wants ChatCCP, not ChatGPT
China is not immune to fears about the power of artificial intelligence that the launch of ChatGPT sparked around the world. The Chinese Communist Party, in turn, is drafting regulations to enforce AI censorship rules to ensure chatbots don’t undermine its power.
ChatGPT is unavailable in China, so entrepreneurs and investors are racing to develop domestic AI alternatives. But those that have been created so far have failed to live up to the party’s patriotic standards.
Unlike most governments, the CCP is not waiting to see the consequences of AI before drawing stringent red lines. Chatbots will be forbidden from speaking critically of Chinese leaders or against the Party’s version of history and must respect intellectual property. Companies should expect to be held responsible if they fail to follow the proposed regulations, as the government is requiring that chatbot algorithms and their software engineers be registered with the government. While the regulations are not finalized, AI engineers in China are already striving to align their work with them.
But can the rules be obeyed? It may require a level of technical control that developers of the most advanced AI chatbots are struggling to achieve. That said, nobody thought China could have a booming tech industry and strict censorship either.
Ukrainian service members fire a mortar towards Russian troops outside the frontline town of Bakhmut, in Donetsk region, Ukraine March 6, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Battle for Bakhmut, Xi’s diplomatic muscle, AUKUS sub deal
The Bakhmut killing field
Bakhmut, home to about 75,000 people before the war, has become an urban killing field. Western intelligence agencies say up to 30,000 Russians have died or been seriously injured in the fight to take this town. Ukrainian casualties, harder to estimate, are also running high.
Russians appear to be fighting mainly to achieve some victory following months of setbacks followed by stalemate. They also hope the eventual capture of this town can boost their chances of advancing on larger cities in other parts of Donetsk province, though some analysts say they won’t have the manpower or firepower to advance beyond Bakhmut anytime soon. Adding to Russia’s complications, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War argues that the country’s defense ministry has likely pushed large numbers of Wagner Group mercenaries to the deadliest sites of fighting in Bakhmut to reduce the Kremlin influence of Wagner chief and frequent critic of the Russian military Yevgeny Prigozhin by thinning out his force.
Though badly outnumbered, Ukrainian forces have been slow to surrender Bakhmut because they want to inflict as much damage as possible on Russian forces ahead of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive in the coming weeks. For now, the killing continues.
Xi’s upcoming Moscow trip
Just weeks after releasing a 12-point peace plan for Ukraine, China’s President Xi Jinping is reportedly set to meet with Vladimir Putin in Moscow as soon as next week. This would be Xi’s second trip outside mainland China since lifting the draconian zero-COVID policy in December.
Xi, a close mate of Putin’s who has benefited from buying up cheap Russian oil and gas since the war broke out, has sought to position himself as a key arbiter between Russia and Ukraine. He is not known to have spoken directly to President Volodymyr Zelensky since Russia’s onslaught began one year ago, but there are reports that Xi and Zelensky could finally connect virtually next week.
Despite maintaining warm relations with Russia and voting against UN measures condemning Moscow’s aggression, Xi isn’t necessarily a fan of the ongoing war, which continues to put pressure on the global economy and fuel inflation, making it harder for poor debtors to repay their loans to Beijing. What’s more, just days after brokering a diplomatic breakthrough between foes Iran and Saudi Arabia, Beijing is likely feeling chuffed at the growing perception of its increasing diplomatic clout … at the US’ expense.
AUKUS phase two
Remember the 2021 AUKUS deal between the US, UK, and Australia? That’s the pact that caused France to temporarily withdraw its ambassadors from Washington and Canberra after the three allies signed a security alliance focused on the Indo-Pacific and ditched plans for Australia to buy French-made submarines.
On Monday, President Joe Biden, UK PM Rishi Sunak, and Australia’s Anthony Albanese met in San Diego and took the agreement to the next level by expanding the arms and tech deal. Australia is now set to buy nuclear-powered submarines from the US, and will co-build a new submarine with the UK as it retires its current fleet over the next decade. This is a huge deal, marking the first time the US will share its nuclear technology for these vessels since it did so with Britain in 1958 as part of a defense pact.
The arming of Australia is yet another signal that Washington is expanding its military presence in the Indo-Pacific and that London is positioning itself on a greater collision course with Beijing going forward. Crucially, because Australia will rely on Washington for tech support in operating the US-made submarines, some have expressed concern that Canberra’s military sovereignty could be at risk.
Indeed, it’s a good time to be in the weapons business: Sunak has announced that the UK will ramp up its defense spending by £5 billion over the next two years to deal with a range of national security threats – code for China and Russia.
An unhappy Beijing hit back Tuesday, accusing the three states of "walking further and further down the path of error and danger."
U.S. President Joe Biden shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping as they meet on the sidelines of the G20 leaders' summit in Bali.
Biden and Xi’s Bali face-off: Agenda, forecast, and sticking points
On Monday, US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping met for their first face-to-face meeting since Biden was elected in 2020. “I look forward to working with you, Mr. President, to bring China-U.S. relations back to the track of health and stable development for the benefit of our two countries and the world as a whole,” Xi told Biden.
What’s at stake: Stopping the Russia-Ukraine war, Taiwan’s sovereignty and defense, North Korea’s increased weapons testing, battling COVID, resumption of global supply chains, and tackling climate change.
What’s on the agenda: Bringing the relationship back to a functional mode with what the White House calls the establishment of “guardrails” and a “floor.” The US worries about China’s plans for Taiwan and Beijing’s expanding nuclear arsenal. Meanwhile, China criticizes the US for stoking tensions by forming regional blocs like the Quad and AUKUS in its neighborhood, empowering anti-China/pro-independence voices in Taiwan, and politicizing trade with tariffs and export controls.
The venue is important: The meeting takes place on the sidelines of the G-20, where 19 of the world’s richest nations and the European Union are gathering (Russia is a member, but President Vladimir Putin is skipping the event).
While the weather forecast is balmy for the summit in Bali, the political climate is hot. It takes place just months after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei in August prompted China to conduct military exercises showcasing its readiness to cut off or invade Taiwan. And it comes mere weeks after Washington imposed a series of export blocks designed to reduce China’s capacity to produce and access advanced computer chips, which form the technical core of China’s scientific and military industries. The measures enjoyed bipartisan support, a rarity in Washington.
Both leaders are riding high. Xi recently secured a norm-defying third term in office and is more powerful than ever with a Politburo lined exclusively with loyalists. Biden just defied expectations in the midterm elections, with Democrats retaining control of the US Senate and awaiting results for several House races, though odds are slightly in the Republicans’ favor.
But trust is low: While the White House says the two sides will “deepen lines of communication,” neither side has tried to win the other over. Washington claims Xi has done nothing to kick off talks about nuclear weapon containment, which the Chinese president suggested he would do last year. Meanwhile, Biden has antagonized China by publicly declaring four times that the US will come to Taiwan’s defense if China attacks (a point the White House has had to walk back).
Team Biden is in play: Biden’s using the trip to Southeast Asia not just to attend three back-to-back summits over six days but also to shore up America’s regional partners and allies to counter China. He’s signed a strategic partnership to work with ASEAN, the powerful Southeast Asian trading bloc that he’s calling “the heart” of the administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy. He’s reaffirmed the trilateral partnership with Japan and South Korea to secure and denuclearize the Korean peninsula, and he’s warned China that it can help or watch the region further militarize. Biden has also said he will be briefing Taiwan’s leaders about what Xi has to say, much to Beijing’s chagrin.
Biden’s policies aren’t very different from Trump’s, but his methods are. While his Republican predecessor wanted to confront China, slap tariffs, and implement controls on trade (all policies Biden has retained and/or reinforced), he also wanted to tackle China alone. Biden, however, has prioritized working with friends and allies to counter Beijing.
While the White House has warned there will be no clear deliverables from Monday’s meeting, the fact that China changed its position last month from not being interested in the huddle to Xi declaring that Beijing is ready to cooperate is a diplomatic win in itself for Washington. But while Xi has been characteristically mute in the run-up to the meeting, Biden’s been the opposite, managing expectations that he wants “competition, not conflict.” The personal connection between the two leaders will also likely factor into the meeting.
“I know him well. He knows me,” Biden told reporters on Saturday. “We just got to figure out where the red lines are and … what are the most important things to each of us going into the next two years.”
But that in itself is an issue.
Biden and Xi are operating with very different levels of authority. Xi doesn’t have to deal with a two-year horizon like Biden does. He essentially has total control over the world’s second-most powerful country, and after his third five-year term, he might even stick around longer. Plus, he’s got clout in the G-20: While some of the group’s members are America’s allies, many are also among China’s best customers.
Importantly, while Biden may have the wind in his sails following the midterms, experts are warning not to take certain initiatives for granted with the newly elected Congress, regardless of which party retains control. These include the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework that the White House introduced as an alternative to the doomed Trans-Pacific Partnership last summer, and which Biden touted on Sunday with trade partners at the East Asia Summit in Cambodia.
“There are going to be lots of questions [in the new Congress] about what's actually in the IPEF because there hasn't exactly been a ton of information yet, so there'll be questioning,” said Tobias Harris, deputy director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund.
Biden could even come up against opposition from his own party. “Trade is clearly an issue that still cuts across both parties. And people in Congress, like [Democratic Senator] Elizabeth Warren are concerned about how agreements are negotiated, and [about] transparency, and whether we agree to rules that don't help American workers,” Harris added.
Chances for a breakthrough: Biden upped the ante before the talks, saying he would make no “fundamental concessions” to Xi about Taiwan’s defense. Meanwhile, the Chinese have warned that the US needs to “stop politicizing, weaponizing, and ideologizing trade issues.”
But even as he talks big about Taiwan, North Korea, and indeed the region while aiming to set up “guardrails” for stabilizing the world’s most important bilateral relationship, Biden's executive powers to deal with Xi’s China are limited by checks and balances. The same can't be said for President Xi.
This was featured in Signal, the daily politics newsletter of GZERO Media. For smart coverage of global affairs that normal people can understand, subscribe here.
The Graphic Truth: China's "Paramount Leaders"
While two-party and/or multi-party democracies thrive on differing policies being pushed by fresh leadership in regular elections, what happens in the case of one-party rule? In China, the Communist Party changes hands through a selection of its “paramount leader'' who also espouses their own philosophy that evolves along with the Communist party. Still, the essential idea is consistent: preserve the party above all else. We explore the basic tenets of political theories of China’s five “Paramount Leaders.”
This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives for the opening ceremony of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in Beijing.
What We’re Watching: China’s Communist Party Congress kickoff, fire at notorious Iranian prison
Xi’s security signaling
The long-anticipated 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress kicked off Sunday with a two-hour speech by President Xi Jinping, who is all but assured to secure a norm-defying third term that could see him lead the party and the military until at least 2027. At the conclusion of the plenum on Oct. 22, the party will tap a new 200-member central committee, a politburo, and a seven-member Politburo Standing Committee. Xi, who for years placed China’s economic agenda at the heart of public pronouncements, focused much of his address on China’s security standing. Indeed, he doubled down on commitments to reunify Taiwan with the mainland, saying that “resolving the Taiwan issue is the Chinese people’s own matter,” adding that Beijing wouldn’t tolerate “protectionism and bullying” by other nations – widely seen as a nod to Washington. What’s more, Xi called on the Chinese to “be ready to withstand high winds, choppy waters and even dangerous storms,” a reference, some analysts say, to Xi’s anticipation of an eventual military confrontation with Washington over Taiwan. Crucially, Xi also said that he’ll keep in place – at least for now – the zero-COVID policy, which is partly responsible for sending the global economy into a tailspin. Decisions made during the event will tell the world what signal Xi wants to send about his future plans for the country.
Carnage at Iran’s Evin prison
At least eight people were killed and dozens injured when a blaze broke out Saturday at the notorious Evin prison on the outskirts of Tehran (the death toll is expected to rise). Information about the cause of the fire has been scarce, in part due to the government’s internet and telecommunications blackout. Still, witnesses posted videos on social media showing a series of explosions and gunfire around the premises. Evin, which houses thousands of political prisoners, journalists, human rights activists, and students – as well as several dual Iranian-American citizens – has long been subject to American sanctions for “serious human rights abuses.” The Islamic Republic, for its part, said that the blaze erupted after a fight between inmates, and rejected claims that the unrest was related to ongoing protests calling for regime change that have enveloped the country for five weeks. Meanwhile, conflicting accounts on social media said the blaze was a result of an attempted prison break or infiltration from the outside. As news of the fire broke, protesters gathered outside the prison, burning tires and shouting “death to the dictator.” The fire seems to have been put out, but protesters continue to rage.Gasoline pump out of gas following the strike of the employees of the oil refineries in France.
What We’re Watching: French fuel fury, China’s next premier, Putin's offer
France’s striking oil workers
Two weeks into strikes by French oil refinery workers over a pay dispute, the government has ordered some striking employees back to work to get petrol flowing. Workers are demanding wage increases to offset rising inflation, and the strikes have taken more than 60% of the country’s oil capacity offline. While ExxonMobil workers reportedly struck a deal for a 6.5% wage increase plus bonuses, unions representing Total Energies employees are demanding a 10% wage increase. On Wednesday, the unions voted to continue striking, defying the summons. The right to strike is protected in France, but a minimum number of workers needed to maintain a public service can be ordered to return to work … or risk a whopping 10,000 euro fine ($9,700) and time behind bars. Although Macron is keen to avoid further disruptions to the energy sector, he must tread carefully. The price of gas is a sensitive issue in France – fuel costs and economic inequality sparked the Yellow Vest movement that brought the country to a standstill in 2018. The last thing he wants to do is fuel more demonstrations, and there are already protests planned for Sunday in Paris over inflation and proposed pension reforms. Given the global energy crisis, heads of state worldwide will be watching carefully to see how Macron navigates the situation.
China’s next premier?
China’s 20th Party Congress, which kicks off on Sunday, will make history with a definitive break from the model of collective leadership of the past four decades toward a political system in which one man, President Xi Jinping, dominates decision-making. But beneath the banner headline, there will be decisions made during the event that tell the world what signal Xi wants to send about his future plans for the country’s direction. One of the most talked about will be the choice of premier. The current occupant of that seat, Li Keqiang, is expected to retire next March. There appear to be two lead candidates to replace him. The first is Vice Premier Hu Chunhua, a capable party boss trusted more as a political loyalist than as a knowledgeable and talented economic technocrat. Another possibility is Wang Yang, a senior official who observers consider an economic “liberal,” an advocate of free-market reform. Xi will decide China’s policy direction, but the choice of premier might tell us whether he feels more comfortable with a party boss or with a candidate who has his own reputation outside China and who has favored a more open approach to economic policy.
What We’re Ignoring: Putin’s latest offer
President Vladimir Putin announced on Wednesday that Russia is willing to supply gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. That means opening a pipeline Europe has vowed not to use. This offer is the definition of a “non-starter.” From the point of view of Germany and other European importers of Russian energy, Putin has made crystal clear that Russia is not a reliable commercial partner. In addition, European fears of a brutal winter with acute energy shortages have eased as access to non-Russian supplies have already allowed inventories to reach 90% of winter storage capacity. The only outstanding question raised by Putin’s offer is whether he’s simply trolling Europe with an offer he knows they’ll refuse or if he genuinely believes European leaders might suddenly decide that he’s trustworthy.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
Beating China at AI
The US and China compete on many fronts, and one of them is artificial intelligence.
But China has a different set of values, which former Google CEO Eric Schmidt is not a big fan of — especially when those values shape the AI on apps his children use.
"You may not care where your kids are, and TikTok may know where your teenagers are, and that may not bother you," he says. "But you certainly don't want them to be affected by algorithms that are inspired by the Chinese and not by Western values."
For Schmidt, the Chinese government is ensuring that the internet reflects the priorities of the ruling Communist Party.
Watch his interview with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World:Be more worried about artificial intelligence
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