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The biggest threats to US national security, foreign and domestic
Less than a month ago, the Biden administration finally dropped its long-anticipated National Security Strategy. The No. 1 external enemy is not Russia but rather China. It also emphasizes the homegrown threat of Americans willing to engage in political violence if their candidate loses at the ballot box.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to New York Times national security correspondent David Sanger about the key national security threats facing the United States right now.
Sanger believes the biggest threat to America's national security right now is an "insider threat" to the stability of the election system coming from Americans willing to engage in political violence. Taiwan's status as a semiconductor superpower may be staving off a Chinese invasion.
On Russia, Sanger believes that Ukraine and the world face the paradox that the better Ukraine gets at resisting Russia, the more likely Putin might launch a tactical nuke. And if he does, he might just get away with it.
This interview was featured in a GZERO World episode: US threat levels from foreign and domestic enemies
What happens if Russia nukes Ukraine?
How should the US respond if Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine?
Unlike strategic ones, tactical nukes are not subject by signed treaties, so all bets are off, New York Times national security correspondent David Sanger tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. Independent agencies don't inspect them so we don't know very much about their size, range, effects, or pre-launch prep.
As for the 'Mutually Assured Destruction' dynamic that held nuclear war at bay for 60 years, including during the Cuban Missile Crisis? Sanger says the dynamics now are "completely different."
Since Ukraine is not a member of NATO, it's not clear if a Russian nuclear attack there would trigger a major US response.
Watch the GZERO World episode: US threat levels from foreign and domestic enemies
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Putin's nuclear calculus and the Ukraine Paradox
Immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine, the odds of Moscow using nuclear weapons were low because it seemed likely they'd overrun the country with conventional weaponry. New York Times national security correspondent David Sanger credits NATO.
"Without the NATO support, I don't think the Ukrainians would have held on," Sanger tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
But now, he warns, we're dealing with the 'Ukraine Paradox': the more successful Ukraine gets, the more likely Vladimir Putin will consider using non-conventional weapons. Will that include nukes? Perhaps.
For Sanger, the risk of Putin going nuclear has gone significantly up since the war began in late February.
Watch the GZERO World episode: US threat levels from foreign and domestic enemies
Top US national security threat: the myth of the stolen election
David Sanger knows a thing or two about national security. After all, it's his beat at the New York Times.
So what does he think is the biggest threat to America's national security right now?
An "insider threat" to the stability of the election system coming not from Russia, not from China, and not from North Korea. The biggest menace is Americans willing to engage in political violence, Sanger tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Watch the GZERO World episode: US threat levels from foreign and domestic enemies
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US threat levels from foreign and domestic enemies
The Biden administration finally released its long-anticipated National Security Strategy, basically America's biggest threats — foreign and domestic.
The No. 1 external enemy is not Russia but rather China. It also emphasizes the homegrown threat of Americans willing to engage in political violence if their candidate loses at the ballot box.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to David Sanger, who knows a thing or two about national security because it's his beat at the New York Times.
His take on China? Taiwan's status as a semiconductor superpower may be staving off a Chinese invasion.
On Russia, Sanger discusses how Kyiv and the world face the paradox that the better Ukraine gets at resisting Russia, the more likely it is that Vladimir Putin will consider launching a tactical nuke. “If the Russians use a tactical nuclear weapon in a conventional war and essentially get away with … then all of a sudden, the taboo about using nuclear weapons in a conventional conflict is gone,” he says.
Meanwhile, America should not lose sight of the "insider threat" to its democracy, particularly with midterms just days away.
Podcast: America at risk: assessing Russia, China, and domestic threats
Listen: From Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to China’s vision for a new global order, there’s plenty keeping President Joe Biden’s national security officials up at night. On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer and New York Times national security correspondent David Sanger break down the top foreign and domestic threats outlined in the Biden administration's recently released National Security Strategy document.
According to the report, the No. 1 external danger is not Russia but rather China. Sanger explains why he believes Taiwan's status as a semiconductor superpower may be staving off a Chinese invasion. As for the Russia-Ukraine war, Sanger talks about the "Ukraine paradox" - the better Ukraine gets at resisting Russia, the more likely Vladimir Putin might launch a tactical nuke (and, Sanger notes, he might just get away with it.)
But the biggest threat to America's national security could well be at home —an “insider threat" to the stability of the election system coming from Americans willing to engage in political violence.
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Taiwan's secret shield against Chinese invasion: its semiconductor industry
The Biden administration has recently doubled down on its efforts to delay China's push to dominate future areas of tech by squeezing the supply of semiconductors Beijing gets from Taiwan.
Why? Because those tiny chips are "the greatest defense we have against Taiwan being invaded," New York Times national security correspondent David Sanger tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
For Sanger, it's about time the US made such a move. America, he points out, was becoming as dependent on Taiwanese-made semiconductors as Europe was on Russian oil and natural gas before Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine.
Still, he believes Biden's move will only buy the US some time if America doesn't build its domestic capacity to make chips.
Ukraine crisis one of many global threats at Munich Security Conference
While Russia’s aggression in Ukraine dominates the headlines, there are many other issues of global concern. In fact, there were so many important crises, according to Benedikt Franke, CEO of the Munich Security Conference, that it was impossible for him and his colleagues to rank them by intensity. There’s a sense of “helplessness,” he said, with the combination of climate change, migration, pandemic, and global hunger “overwhelming” us. So the conference decided not to prioritize global issues based on the level of threat. Instead, they decided to “treat them all the same,” Franke said.
Franke spoke with moderator David Sanger in GZERO Media's Global Stage livestream discussion at the Munich Security Conference.
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