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Former United States President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro at Mar-a-Lago in 2020.
What We’re Watching: Bolsonaro skipping town, Putin’s New Year’s gift, Vietnam’s growth, a bit of Xi & Putin face time
Bolsonaro takes off, Lula takes charge
On Sunday, left-wing former president Luiz "Lula” Inacio da Silva will once again be sworn in as Brazil’s president, a post he last held from 2003 to 2010. Hundreds of dignitaries will attend the ceremony in Brasilia, save for one very important person: Brazil’s outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro. The right-wing incumbent will be spending New Year’s Eve in Florida with someone who loves him — former US President Donald Trump. What signal does this send? Bolsonaro has suggested that the bitterly fought election against his nemesis Lula was unfair, and he has done little to stop his supporters from protesting to that effect, sometimes violently. Will his decision to skip the festivities quell concerns about a possible January 6 event in Brazil, or will his supporters read his decision to watch from Mar-a-Lago as a signal that the entire inauguration is illegitimate, fueling more anger as Lula takes power? Ever since the election, Bolsonaro and his team have been in close touch with Trump about next steps. On Sunday, we’ll be watching Lula, of course, but we’ll also be watching Bolsonaro’s supporters watching him watching Trump.
Putin tries again to freeze Ukraine over
Russia launched a huge attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure Friday, using cruise missiles and drones to target power stations and other facilities across the country. Although Ukraine said it had managed to shoot down most of the Kremlin’s missiles, a number of facilities still suffered damage. Just days before the New Year’s holiday, Putin is intensifying his strategy of trying to freeze Ukraine into submission (see our recent interview with an undaunted young woman in Kyiv). Meanwhile, to Ukraine’s north, Belarus said it had shot down a Ukrainian air-defense missile that had strayed across the border. Belarusian authorities gave no indication that they considered it an attack on their territory. As Ukraine remains under aerial attack, this is the second time in the past six weeks that a Ukrainian air defense missile has strayed — in mid-November one landed in a Polish border town, killing several people and briefly stoking (unfounded) fears that Russia had deliberately targeted a NATO member.
Vietnam’s GDP boom
While many countries are experiencing growing pains, Vietnam’s gross domestic product rose by 8.02% in 2022, the fastest growth rate in Asia. This was in large part due to a strong performance in the final quarter of the year. For context, GDP growth in China, Japan, and Thailand this year is slated to hit 3%, 1.7%, and 3.2% respectively. While China’s manufacturing capacity was hindered by Beijing’s relentless zero-COVID policy, Vietnam's manufacturing juggernaut has expanded, growing by more than 8.1% year-on-year. Still, as global inflation remains high and fear of recession looms, there are already signs that Vietnam’s export-reliant economy could face tougher times in 2023. While global exports are up in 2022, demand is likely to slump next year as a result of central banks’ belt-tightening. Asian economies, particularly in southeast Asia, have benefited greatly from ongoing tensions between the US and China, with both major economies boosting trade with this bloc since 2018 when the tit-for-tat trade war began.
Xi and Putin’s Friday coping session
“Hey, how’s it going?” “Dunno man, I’ve been better.” “Yeah, I feel you…” That’s about how we expected things to go between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping during their video chat on Friday. It’s been a lousy few weeks for both of the bigtime strongmen, as each grapples with his own grim war of choice: Xi’s with the coronavirus after lifting his quixotic “zero-COVID” policy, and Putin’s with … well you know about that. It’s not clear how much each man can do to help the other right now — Russia doesn’t have enough vaccines ready for China even if Beijing wanted them, and Xi can’t do much more to help Russia’s army or economy without provoking China’s main economic partners in the US and Europe. Still, sometimes it’s nice to have someone to commiserate with — talking is good. We understand the duo discussed strengthening relations.Local woman cries as she prepares to enter an evacuation train from Kherson, Ukraine.
What We’re Watching: Kherson evacuation, China’s flex in Taiwan, botched bomb plot in Brasilia
A bloody few days in Ukraine and Russia
Three Russian service members were killed by what Moscow claimed was falling debris inside Russia on Monday after a Ukrainian drone was shot down over the Engels military base about 400 miles from the Ukrainian border. It’s the second time in a month that Ukraine has targeted that base, which Kyiv says the Kremlin is using as a launching pad for missile attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. The incident is problematic for President Vladimir Putin, who has long tried to reassure Russians that the war won’t be coming home or impacting their everyday lives – a narrative that’s harder to sell when deadly drones are flying inside Russian airspace. The timing was also embarrassing for Putin, who was hosting leaders from former Soviet republics when the attack occurred. While Kyiv has mostly been on a high since President Volodymyr Zelensky’s successful trip to Washington, DC, last week, it was also a bloody weekend for Ukraine: Russia pummeled the southern city of Kherson on Christmas Eve, leading to at least 10 deaths and scores of injuries. Meanwhile, Ukrainian authorities are urging residents to evacuate the city in preparation for what's still to come.
China’s muscle flex in the Taiwan Strait
China sent 71 warplanes and seven ships towards Taiwan in a 24-hour period, marking the largest show of force by Beijing in the Taiwan Strait in months. Taipei claimed that 47 Chinese aircraft crossed the median line, an unofficial buffer between the two states. Analysts say that Beijing’s muscle flex was largely a response to a spending bill passed by the US Congress in recent days, which boosted security assistance for Taiwan, including fast-tracking Taipei’s access to weapons procurement. Beijing was predictably peeved by the development, accusing Washington and Taipei of provocations. In response, Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen announced that mandatory national military service would be increased from four months to one year. Indeed, this was the biggest show of force in the Taiwan Strait by Beijing since US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the disputed island in the summer, prompting an aggressive naval and aerial response from China. Still, the last thing President Xi Jinping wants right now is an escalation with the US, given that he’s grappling with a medical emergency and an overwhelmed healthcare system as his government abandons its zero-COVID policy.
Brasilia bomb plot
Just days out from the inauguration of Brazil’s incoming President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, police in Brasilia found an explosive device attached to a truck tanker outside the capital’s international airport. One person has been arrested in connection with the botched bomb plot (the device reportedly failed to detonate as planned.) A large stash of weapons, ammo, and other explosive devices were also found at the rented apartment of the suspect – a staunch supporter of outgoing far-right President Jair Bolsonaro. In recent weeks, the alleged bomb plotter had traveled from out of town to participate in protests outside the military headquarters in Brasilia in hopes of wreaking havoc and prompting the military to declare a state of emergency that would upend Lula’s swearing-in ceremony on Jan. 1. What’s more, police say this was part of a series of planned attacks around the capital and that other suspects will soon be arrested. While Lula says he is committed to bringing the deeply polarized country together and declared in his victory speech on Oct. 30 that “there are not two Brazils," Bolsonaro supporters are determined to stop left- wing Lula from taking office, going so far as to attempt storming police headquarters in Brasilia in recent weeks. Bolsonaro, for his part, still refuses to concede the election, so we'll be watching to see how high the temperatures rise."Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson - Russia!" A banner on a screen set up ahead of an expected ceremony and concert in Moscow to declare four Ukrainian regions part of Russia.
What We're Watching: Russian annexations, Brazilian election, DeSantis-Biden truce
Bluffs called in Ukraine
On Friday, Vladimir Putin will announce that four regions of Ukraine – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson – have become part of Russia following referenda in those places that virtually no one outside Russia considers legitimate. Russian officials, including Putin himself, have said that Russia will defend its territory by any means necessary, including with nuclear weapons. This warning will have no impact on Ukrainian forces, who appear close to retaking the strategically important city of Lyman in Donetsk as part of its remarkably successful counter-offensive. Nor will it weaken support for Ukraine from America and Europe. So, what happens when Ukrainian soldiers score more victories on land that Putin claims is part of Russia? We’re about to find out.
Brazil’s election: one and done?
This Sunday, voters go to the polls in the most polarized presidential election in the country’s history. The top two vote-getters are certain to be the incumbent, right-winger Jaír Bolsonaro, and his biggest nemesis, leftist former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The only real question is whether Lula, who currently leads Bolsonaro by double digits in some polls, will get more than 50% of the vote, winning the election outright in the first round and avoiding a late October runoff. If so, will Bolsonaro accept the result? He has spent months riling up his supporters with baseless doubts about the credibility of the electoral system. Some even fear a January 6th scenario if he loses. As his communications minister said, ominously, earlier this week: we are now nearing the “moment of truth.”
Hurricane halts DeSantis-Biden feud … for now
Hurricane Ian left more than 2.5 million people without power Thursday after slamming into Florida. Early reports reflect a death toll of 14, which is expected to rise in the coming days. Having already left 11 million Cubans in the dark, the storm is working its way up America’s Eastern Seaboard, raising the risk of floods and outages. President Joe Biden has called it potentially the “deadliest hurricane in Florida history,” while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis described it as a 1-in-500-year event from which the state will struggle to recover. DeSantis, a Republican star who recently grabbed headlines for flying migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, and the president say they’ve set politicking aside amid the disaster. DeSantis accepted federal assistance after speaking with Biden, noting that he was “thankful” for the help. Will the pause in their rivalry last, or will the two soon tussle over the amount of disaster aid Florida will get? Biden is planning to visit the state, so we’ll be watching to see whether DeSantis greets him with open arms … or has somewhere else to be. The closer we get to Election Day, the more DeSantis will want to convince GOP voters he can stand up to Democrats — and therefore should be the Republican presidential nominee in 2024.
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Presidential campaign materials displayed in Rio de Janeiro.
Brazil: “Whoever gets the most votes will win, period.”
Brazil is now just two months away from its most pivotal, polarizing and potentially destabilizing presidential election in decades.
The country’s current far-right president Jair Bolsonaro is likely to face off against his nemesis, the leftist former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Bolsonaro, who trails badly in the polls, has spent months raising baseless doubts about the integrity of Brazil’s centralized electronic voting system. Ominously, some members of the military have echoed those concerns, raising the prospect either of January 6 style violence after the vote, or a move by the military to interfere with the transfer of power. After all, just days ago, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned Brasilia to ensure that the military is fully under control ahead of the Oct. 2 vote.
To better understand what’s at stake and why things feel so on edge in Brazil right now, we sat down with Silvio Cascione, a director in Eurasia Group’s Brazil practice. The interview has been lightly edited for concision and clarity.
Silvio, what do the polls say just two months out from the election?
It’s all about Lula versus Bolsonaro. They are both charismatic leaders – each in their own way – and are known by 100% of the electorate. It’s been very difficult for any alternative candidates to break through. Bolsonaro’s popularity has started to recover from a bad year in 2021, but he’s still trailing Lula by more than 10 percentage points.
What are the main issues or concerns for Brazilian voters at the moment?
Brazilians usually care a lot about the economy, but this is even more true now: inequality has deepened after the COVID crisis. Inflation is high and income is growing at the slowest pace in a decade. Unlike in 2018, when voters also cared a lot about fighting corruption and improving public services, this time around all of their attention is on economic grievances.
We’re hearing concerns about violence surrounding the campaigns, after a local official in Lula’s party was reportedly killed by a Bolsonaro supporter last month – what can you tell us about that? Who is being targeted and why?
It’s not like Brazil never had political violence before. Bolsonaro was stabbed on the campaign trail in 2018, and there were other incidents in the past against sitting officials and candidates. But this is made worse by the very deep polarization between Bolsonaro and Lula’s hardcore supporters. Lula’s party has reported death threats against him, and nobody can rule out another potential attack targeting Bolsonaro, after what happened in 2018. But while there are extremist individuals, there is no evidence of a concerted campaign against either candidate.
Bolsonaro has been casting doubt on the legitimacy of the vote itself for a while now, how worried are you about a contested election?
I’m not worried about election fraud or an institutional collapse. The election system in Brazil has a good international reputation and continues to be endorsed by most Brazilian institutions. Whoever gets more votes will be the president in 2023, period.
But it’s true that Brazilians have lost faith in political institutions for the most part, and this anti-establishment sentiment has led part of the electorate to question the voting system too. It’s never good when you see 20% or 30% of people, depending on the polling institute, saying they don’t trust the electoral system.
There’s no constitutional process to contest electoral results, but you could still see acts of violence or large protests, some of which could even cause economic disruptions, such as trucker strikes. I’m worried about events like that.
Brazil returned to democracy almost 40 years ago now. Is that in peril now?
That would be an overstatement. There are no conditions for an authoritarian regime in such a divided country with this institutional complexity, even more so considering the current international backdrop, which is very different from the 1960’s Cold War.
There will continue to be elections and Brazilian leaders will still be subject to checks and balances from Congress, courts, state governments, media, and other institutions.
But such a deep polarization and this risk of political violence are obviously not good for a healthy democracy. The quality of public debate gets poor, governance takes a hit. This is obviously bad. And, in the long term, the next generation of voters and institutions could be vulnerable to a more dangerous democratic erosion.
How might a contested election affect Brazil’s relations with the rest of the world?
We are seeing representatives of Western democracies warning Brazil about the importance of free and fair elections. There will probably be a lot of international support for Brazil’s institutions and civil society when they come together to defend the electoral results. [Assuming Lula wins] this “alliance” should help Lula in the early days of his potential administration, as he could reinforce his role as a “national unity” leader that can put Brazil back on the international stage.
Lula attends a news conference after meeting with the Rede Sustentabilidade party in Brasilia.
Can Bolsonaro win re-election after all?
With just six months left before Brazil’s presidential election, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially launched his campaign Saturday for the country’s top job. A highly celebrated politician, Lula seeks to lead Latin America’s largest democracy at a tumultuous time amid fears over authoritarianism and a rising cost of living.
Lula leads in the polls, but his bid could get complicated if the conservative incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro, continues to close the gap with policies designed to relieve the economy. Lula has also suffered self-inflicted damage by making controversial statements.
Following two consecutive presidential terms, Lula left office in 2010 with an enviable 80% approval rating. His progressive reforms, a massive welfare program, and infrastructure development (underwritten by a timely surge in Brazilian exports during a commodities boom) helped pull millions out of poverty.
Later convicted of corruption, many discounted Lula’s ability to stage a political comeback. But Brazil’s Supreme Court annulled the conviction in 2021, making his return seem inevitable. By early 2022, the 76-year-old looked unstoppable and was leading the polls by over 20 percentage points.
But Bolsonaro — a divisive, gun-loving, anti-vaccine former army captain — is now closing the gap. Recent polling suggests that Lula is now ahead by only 5 percentage points. Bolsonaro’s uptick is also partially driven by the end of the campaign run for Sergio Moro, a former anti-corruption judge, making this largely a two-horse race.
One school of thought blames Lula’s lapse on his gaffes. Lula’s recent statements have incensed and isolated voters, putting his campaign in trouble. Those statements have been seen as pro-abortion (which is anathema in conservative Brazil), anti-middle class (Brazilians display more wealth than that of the US or Europe, he claims), and anti-cop (Bolsonaro doesn’t care about people, only police officers, Lula says).
But Brazil’s politics are complicated. What look like gaffes and missteps to some are seen by insiders as calibrated moves by Lula to appease his own party.
Rio de Janeiro-based analyst Thomas Traumann, a former communications minister for Lula’s Workers’ Party and author of The Worst Job in the World, believes Lula’s problem is internal, within the Workers’ Party. The more militant left-wing, Traumann explains, was upset by Lula’s choice of his running mate, Geraldo Alckmin, who is seen as too conservative by insiders. Those opposed to Alckmin need to be appeased.
That’s why Lula's proposed measures — to revoke labor legislation reform, end the budget ceiling, establish government control over Petrobras, and push public policy against LGBTQ-phobia — may seem over the top, even by Lula’s own liberal standards, but are designed to cement support internally. Even international optics — like Lula holding Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky equally responsible to President Vladimir Putin for the war in Ukraine — may be designed for the consumption of Brazil’s far left, which still sympathizes with authoritarian regimes, like those in Cuba.
“It is like Lula’s campaign is paying some sort of fine to the left-wing for accommodating Alckmin into the fold,” says Traumann.
The other school of thought says everything hinges on the state of the economy. They believe that while Lula’s bid remains strong, his main opponent, Bolsonaro, is experiencing a surge thanks to recent economic moves, such as increasing the minimum wage and boosting job recovery.
Bolsonaro is “getting closer to Lula due to the partial recovery of income since the beginning of the year,” says Daniela Teles, a Brazil researcher at Eurasia Group. She points to Bolsonaro’s 10% increase in the national minimum wage and the introduction of an extra annual paycheck for pensioners.
Chris Garman, managing director for the Americas at Eurasia Group, agrees that the economic boost has helped Bolsonaro, but he doesn’t think that Lula’s statements are having a negative effect on the front-runner’s campaign.
“I think the press has got all this wrong. The narrative is that the lead is being squandered because Lula is making controversial statements on a range of issues,” he says. “But the key is whether this economic recovery will continue. It has nothing to do with what Lula is saying.”
Lula is still expected to win, and — gaffes or not — that’s true largely due to the forecasted continuation of high inflation. “But if the economy surprises to the upside,” says Garman, “Bolsonaro’s odds would grow.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Brazilian counterpart Jair Bolsonaro attend a news conference following talks in Moscow.
For Latin America, political risks overshadow economic gain from Ukraine crisis
Countries that rely heavily on imported food and energy face the greatest risk of social and economic crises from the disruption caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Yet even those that are themselves big producers of these essential commodities are suffering fallout from the war. Rising prices for basic goods in many parts of Latin America, for example, are testing governments already struggling to manage elevated public frustration caused by pandemic hardships. We asked Eurasia Group expert Yael Sternberg to explain how this is playing out.
What has the initial impact been in the region?
Though countries such as Brazil and Colombia are large food producers, they are now having difficulties obtaining the Russian and Ukrainian fertilizers they have come to rely on. Similarly, though the region has large reserves of crude oil, it obtains much of its supply of diesel, gasoline, and other fuels from European refineries. As these companies shun Russian oil, they have less diesel and gasoline to sell to Latin America. Argentina is already suffering from an acute shortage of diesel, an essential fuel in the transportation and agricultural industries. The same problem is looming for Brazil.
What will the economic and political consequences be?
Latin America is still reeling from the economic hit of the pandemic, which exacerbated inequalities and fueled rapid inflation. The fallout from the Ukraine crisis is ratcheting up inflationary pressures again as higher prices for fertilizers and fuels drive up the cost of food and other goods. Wary of unrest, leaders are offering subsidies for many of these items despite already strained state finances. Many are also backtracking on plans to rein in pandemic-era stimulus programs. Chile and El Salvador have both announced new support plans in recent weeks that include subsidies and tax breaks. The Chilean administration was able to integrate its plan into the framework of its already approved 2022 budget. But El Salvador, which already plans on using a controversial funding strategy of issuing bonds denominated in Bitcoin, will face more difficulties financing the new spending.
Has there been unrest?
Yes. Argentina and Peru have both experienced significant bouts of unrest. Activists camped out recently on Buenos Aires’s main avenue to demand greater social spending, and Argentine truckers led a nationwide strike in response to rising diesel prices. Peru has erupted in even more violent demonstrations across the country over rising inflation, prompting President Pedro Castillo to impose a 24-hour curfew in the capital city of Lima only to revoke it hours later, further evidencing his erratic policymaking tendencies and lack of experience. The crisis comes at a bad time for Castillo, who is struggling to hold on to power after two impeachment attempts.
Is there a silver lining in the rising prices for the commodities the region produces?
Latin America is a big exporter of agricultural goods, oil and many metals, so higher international prices for these items will buoy local producers and generate more tax revenue for governments. Ecuador, for example, has benefited from higher oil revenue. Yet, as mentioned, local consumers will suffer from higher prices, creating pressures on cash-strapped governments to cushion the blow. So, while higher commodity prices have boosted some countries’ revenue, the downside in terms of political risk will be greater.
How are these developments likely to affect upcoming elections?
Like the pandemic, the effects of the Ukraine conflict and resulting inflation shock have exacerbated political headwinds for incumbents and added momentum to a leftward shift in the region’s politics. This means trouble for Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who faces an uphill battle for reelection in October against former leftwing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and an added boost for Colombia’s Gustavo Petro ahead of May elections there. Polling suggests that Petro is on track to become Colombia’s first leftist president.
What are the geopolitical consequences in terms of relations with Russia, China, and the US?
Most countries in the region are aligning with the US, except for those that abstained from March’s UN resolution condemning Russia’s invasion. These included the leftist-run countries Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba, and Nicaragua in addition to an apparent outlier: the populist-run El Salvador. President Nayib Bukele now seems to be orienting himself towards Russia and has taken to social media to attack the US’s credibility on the crisis — potentially in a bid to bolster crypto as a financing prospect and adding to his already confrontational relationship with the Biden administration. Other countries that have maintained good relations with Russia in the past — including Brazil and Argentina — now face pressure to tread carefully if they want to avoid diplomatic and economic repercussions from the US and Europe. Additionally, if Western sanctions push Russia (even) closer to China, Beijing’s interest in solidifying economic ties to Latin America is likely to grow given China’s broad economic diplomacy efforts and attractive financing offers for many leftist leaders in the region.
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Macron shakes hands with Putin, at the French president's summer retreat.
Putin invades the year’s big elections
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is shifting politics inside every major country in the world. Here are four countries holding big elections this year — with details on how Vladimir Putin’s war is making a difference in Hungary, France, Brazil, and the United States.
Hungary — parliamentary elections on April 3
No EU head of government has friendlier ties with Putin than Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. But Russia’s invasion, says Mujtaba Rahman, head of Eurasia Group’s Europe desk, “is politically problematic for Orbán because it rekindles memories of the 1956 Soviet invasion for both pro- and anti-Orbán voters.” On the eve of what’s expected to be a close election, Hungary’s prime minister has had to strike a delicate balance on the war.
On the one hand, despite Hungary’s energy dependence on Russia, Orbán decided quickly after the invasion to back EU sanctions on Russia. On the other, fear of losing crucial pro-Russia voters to far-right election rivals encouraged him to oppose some EU plans, such as shipments of European weapons to Ukraine’s army.
In the end, Orbán’s dexterity in managing this crisis may boost his party’s chances next month.
France — presidential election on April 10 and April 24
Putin has done France’s President Emmanuel Macron an enormous favor. By starting a war during France’s six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union, he’s handed Macron the chance to play crucial European statesman rather than presidential candidate urgently hustling for votes.
The war has also sucked oxygen from the campaign of his rival, far-right favorite Marine Le Pen, who has “an embarrassing history of admiration for Vladimir Putin,” according to Rahman. In fact, her party courted controversy by borrowing money from a Russian-owned bank in 2014, when the National Rally Party was opposing Western sanctions against Russia over its seizure of Crimea.
Macron has now become a strong favorite to win a second-round victory on April 24.
Brazil — general election on October 2
Further afield, the war in Ukraine creates risks for Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro. Problem one is that he made a considerable show of visiting Putin in Moscow just days before the invasion to express “solidarity with Russia.” For some Brazilian voters, that’s an embarrassing reminder of Bolsonaro’s own controversial military background and hyper-macho political rhetoric. After the invasion, the president insisted that Brazil would remain “neutral,” alienating some voters on both sides.
But the Russian invasion’s biggest impact on Brazilian politics this year will be economic. In presidential polls, Bolsonaro now trails his main rival, former president Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, in part because high inflation (10% in 2021) has taken a toll on the purchasing power of millions of voters. A lasting global inflation shock, exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war, will undermine his chances of catching up.
US — midterm elections on November 6 and the 2024 presidential election
A recent poll found that 74% of American respondents said Russia’s invasion was unjustified, and 76% expressed a negative personal view of Vladimir Putin. But this is a question on which Democrats are far more united than Republicans, casting a shadow over GOP expectations of victory in November.
That vote is still eight months away, and President Biden’s relative unpopularity probably will deliver Congress to the GOP. By summer, Russia’s role in high gasoline prices will matter less than it does today to frustrated consumers.
But what about the 2024 presidential election? Just 3% of that poll’s respondents who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 were willing to say Biden is “doing a better job leading his country” than Putin is. If Trump runs again, his continuing public admiration for Putin — the former president called the Ukraine invasion “genius” — could cost him considerable support. After all, 58% of Republican voters back Ukraine at the moment.
Even if Trump settles for the role of GOP kingmaker, his support of Putin could divide both Republican leaders and voters — and alienate some GOP-leaning independents. Especially in the highly likely event that Russia features prominently in election-year headlines.
Five choices
We have lots of big elections on deck in 2022. Today we’ll preview five that will feature high international stakes and especially colorful candidates.
France (April) — President Emmanuel Macron is expected to seek re-election, and at this early stage he looks likely to win. Marine Le Pen, an anti-EU far-right firebrand, appears set to try to rebrand herself yet again in hopes of earning a second-round rematch with the centrist Macron, who defeated her by nearly 2-1 in their head-to-head battle in 2017. But Le Pen will be elbowed on one side by center-right establishment candidate Valérie Pécresse. On the other, she’ll face constant pressure from France’s new election wildcard, Eric Zemmour, a TV personality who claims left-wing elites want to consolidate power by replacing white French citizens with immigrants from North Africa and the Middle East.
Hungary (April) — Here the outsized personality belongs to incumbent Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister since 2010, who now faces his toughest election challenge to date. Though Orbán insists he wants Hungary to remain within the EU, criticism of the union forms a central part of his appeal to loyal supporters. His moves in recent years to tighten his grip on power, stack the country’s courts with loyalists, silence media critics, close the country’s borders to non-EU migrants, and restrict the rights of LGBT people have earned pushback from the EU. But the big story here is that six opposition parties have joined forces with the single aim of ousting Orbán.
Colombia (May-June) — Colombians will choose a new Congress in March, but it’s the presidential election in May and June that might make history. For now, Senator Gustavo Petro, a former Marxist guerrilla and mayor of Bogotá, is the wildcard to watch — and the favorite to win. He owes part of his popularity to his own formidable political gifts. But he’s also helped by the unpopularity of the incumbent, Iván Duque, and a year of controversy and public frustration over Duque’s botched tax reform and pandemic response plans. (Duque is term-limited, even if he weren’t politically toxic.) A Petro victory would mark a major political turning point in Colombia, traditionally a center-right country in which decades of war with Marxist militants — and the ongoing disaster next door in socialist-led Venezuela — have long stigmatized leftist politics at the national level.
Brazil (October) — Many recent elections around the world have pitted a charismatic populist against a defender of the political establishment. Not so in Brazil next year, where October’s presidential election will feature a battle for the ages between incumbent right-wing lightning-rod Jair Bolsonaro and former president Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva, one of Latin America’s most dynamic left-wing populists. Critics have hammered Bolsonaro for his dismissive attitude toward COVID, and he’s aroused anger by denouncing the integrity of the election itself. Lula is well ahead in early polls, but Bolsonaro’s popularity has risen recently on promises of cash help for the poor, a decidedly off-brand maneuver for a leader who usually dismisses the need for empathy in policymaking. These two brilliant political performance artists will probably deliver the most volatile election of 2022.
US midterms (November) — Much of the US political drama next year will come directly from Donald Trump. The former president and master showman hopes to use November’s midterm congressional elections to tighten his grip on the Republican Party ahead of the 2024 presidential election. In many ways, the hotly contested races for majority control of Congress will be a referendum on increasingly unpopular President Joe Biden, and on Democrats too busy arguing with one another to deliver on some of their grandest campaign promises from 2020. But Trump’s active backing for Republicans who signal personal loyalty to him and his agenda against more independent-minded GOP incumbents makes this set of midterms — as well as state and local elections — less predictable than most.
We’ll also be writing in the coming weeks about upcoming elections in South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, Kenya, and elsewhere.