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Moroccan fans gather on the Champs Elysees in Paris to celebrate Morocco s qualification for the semifinals of the World Cup.
What We're Watching: Morocco plays French politics, 11th-hour EU/Hungary deal, big energy milestone
Atlas Lions vs. French far-right
When reigning champion France takes on underdog Morocco in the World Cup semifinals on Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron will be in the stands. And whatever happens on the pitch it’s almost certain to cause tremors for him at home. The “Rocky Balboa” success of Morocco’s “Atlas Lions” – the first Arab or African team ever to make it this far in a World Cup – has struck a chord with millions of first- and second-generation French citizens of Arab and African origin. The worry is that a small minority of those fans may riot in the streets after the match — regardless of whether Morocco wins or loses — as they did last weekend in Paris after first Morocco beat Portugal and then France defeated England in the quarterfinals. Popular far-righters like TV provocateur and former presidential frontrunner Éric Zemmour will surely seize on any unrest to advance their calls for tighter restrictions on immigration. And that will cause a problem for Macron himself, who’s under pressure from the French right to pass a new law targeting illegal immigrants.
Orbán-EU draw
Another round of confrontation between the European Union and perennial EU gadfly Viktor Orbán has concluded. Once again, the Hungarian prime minister and Europe have each made concessions. This is not a surprise. Hungary’s economy and currency are struggling, and the EU has money that Orbán’s government badly needs. But Orbán knows how to pick fights with Brussels that boost his standing at home and force the EU to compromise in order to get his support for urgent European priorities. Late Monday evening, Hungary dropped its objection to an 18 billion euro ($19.15 billion) EU aid package for Ukraine and a 15% minimum tax for big corporations. In return, Hungary will get 5.8 billion euros in badly-needed COVID recovery money, and the European Commission has agreed to unfreeze 1.2 billion euros of the 7.5 billion euros it had previously withheld over concerns about corruption and rule-of-law violations in Hungary. Both sides will claim victory, but the battle will continue: the EU is still demanding reforms in Hungary that would strengthen judicial independence and anti-graft oversight. This ain’t over.
Fusion breakthrough
Well, it lasted only a few trillionths of a second, but what a few trillionths of a second they were. In a historic breakthrough, US government scientists announced they’d successfully carried out a burst of nuclear fusion, a clean energy process that (mindbogglingly) generates more energy than it requires. The long-term implications for energy, climate, and geopolitics are huge. But first, let’s set your mind at ease — after all, “nuclear fusion” sounds scary. Fusion is different than fission. Fission is what powers today’s nuclear reactors (and atomic bombs). It works by splitting atoms in a way that releases huge amounts of energy, but also generates radioactive waste and the occasional nuclear plant meltdown. Fusion, on the other hand, is the opposite: a controlled process of mixing atoms together in to produce energy. No waste. No meltdowns. But also, for now, no guarantee it can replicated at scale outside of a lab. Still, if it could it would open the way to a world-changing source of clean and sustainable energy. China and the US are already locked in a high-stakes race to develop fusion for military and civilian purposes. That viability is decades away, but all decades start with a few trillionths of a second.Five choices
We have lots of big elections on deck in 2022. Today we’ll preview five that will feature high international stakes and especially colorful candidates.
France (April) — President Emmanuel Macron is expected to seek re-election, and at this early stage he looks likely to win. Marine Le Pen, an anti-EU far-right firebrand, appears set to try to rebrand herself yet again in hopes of earning a second-round rematch with the centrist Macron, who defeated her by nearly 2-1 in their head-to-head battle in 2017. But Le Pen will be elbowed on one side by center-right establishment candidate Valérie Pécresse. On the other, she’ll face constant pressure from France’s new election wildcard, Eric Zemmour, a TV personality who claims left-wing elites want to consolidate power by replacing white French citizens with immigrants from North Africa and the Middle East.
Hungary (April) — Here the outsized personality belongs to incumbent Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister since 2010, who now faces his toughest election challenge to date. Though Orbán insists he wants Hungary to remain within the EU, criticism of the union forms a central part of his appeal to loyal supporters. His moves in recent years to tighten his grip on power, stack the country’s courts with loyalists, silence media critics, close the country’s borders to non-EU migrants, and restrict the rights of LGBT people have earned pushback from the EU. But the big story here is that six opposition parties have joined forces with the single aim of ousting Orbán.
Colombia (May-June) — Colombians will choose a new Congress in March, but it’s the presidential election in May and June that might make history. For now, Senator Gustavo Petro, a former Marxist guerrilla and mayor of Bogotá, is the wildcard to watch — and the favorite to win. He owes part of his popularity to his own formidable political gifts. But he’s also helped by the unpopularity of the incumbent, Iván Duque, and a year of controversy and public frustration over Duque’s botched tax reform and pandemic response plans. (Duque is term-limited, even if he weren’t politically toxic.) A Petro victory would mark a major political turning point in Colombia, traditionally a center-right country in which decades of war with Marxist militants — and the ongoing disaster next door in socialist-led Venezuela — have long stigmatized leftist politics at the national level.
Brazil (October) — Many recent elections around the world have pitted a charismatic populist against a defender of the political establishment. Not so in Brazil next year, where October’s presidential election will feature a battle for the ages between incumbent right-wing lightning-rod Jair Bolsonaro and former president Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva, one of Latin America’s most dynamic left-wing populists. Critics have hammered Bolsonaro for his dismissive attitude toward COVID, and he’s aroused anger by denouncing the integrity of the election itself. Lula is well ahead in early polls, but Bolsonaro’s popularity has risen recently on promises of cash help for the poor, a decidedly off-brand maneuver for a leader who usually dismisses the need for empathy in policymaking. These two brilliant political performance artists will probably deliver the most volatile election of 2022.
US midterms (November) — Much of the US political drama next year will come directly from Donald Trump. The former president and master showman hopes to use November’s midterm congressional elections to tighten his grip on the Republican Party ahead of the 2024 presidential election. In many ways, the hotly contested races for majority control of Congress will be a referendum on increasingly unpopular President Joe Biden, and on Democrats too busy arguing with one another to deliver on some of their grandest campaign promises from 2020. But Trump’s active backing for Republicans who signal personal loyalty to him and his agenda against more independent-minded GOP incumbents makes this set of midterms — as well as state and local elections — less predictable than most.
We’ll also be writing in the coming weeks about upcoming elections in South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, Kenya, and elsewhere.The Graphic Truth: French presidential frontrunners
France's presidential election is only three months away, and it’ll be no snoozer. Although barely one-quarter of French voters back current president Emmanuel Macron, he’s heavily favored to win re-election because he’d almost certainly beat far-right hopefuls Marine Le Pen or Éric Zemmour in a runoff. But the center-right French president now faces an unexpected challenge from the old establishment right: Valerie Pécresse, the nominee of the Les Republicains party, could give Macron a run for his money if she makes it to the second round. We take a look at how the top four French presidential candidates have polled over the past six months.
The French election is getting hot
Germany has been the European center of political attention in recent months, as punk-rock god Angela Merkel exits the stage after almost two decades at the helm. But there’s another big election heating up in Europe. The French will head to the polls in just twelve weeks, and the race has started to get very interesting.
What’s the state of play?
The slate of presidential candidates is now finalized after Les Républicains on Saturday elected Valerie Pécresse to head the ticket. Pécresse, the first woman to head the center-right party of Charles de Gaulle, is hoping to reinvigorate a group that’s been marginalized in French politics in recent years as anti-establishment sentiment has gripped the electorate.
She faces off against incumbent President Emmanuel Macron, a wishy-washy centrist who is not particularly popular and would reap about a quarter of votes if elections were held today.
Trailing Macron in the polls is Marine Le Pen, head of the far-right National Rally party, who in recent years has abandoned part of her populist economic agenda to broaden her appeal. And more recently, far(ther)-right firebrand Éric Zemmour — a media shock jock who likes to say provocative things to get attention — has entered the political fray.
Center right vs right vs far right. The French electorate is now decidedly right-leaning. This is in part because the once-potent French left has imploded since former President François Hollande of the Socialist Party left office in 2017 as one of the country’s most unpopular leaders. The French progressive movement remains split as a result of intra-party infighting and ideological differences. Young progressive voters are disengaged from politics.
As a result, big electoral debates over immigration, law and order, and France’s influence on the world stage are playing out almost entirely on the right. For Macron, who has for years tried to paint himself as a pragmatic, liberal political outsider, this swerve to the right has not been too difficult to navigate. He’s talked tough on immigration and Islamic extremism to appeal to right-leaning voters who have staunch views on security and French identity, while distinguishing himself from his far-right opponents whom he dubs as myopic kooks.
But Pécresse’s entrance into the race indeed throws a spanner in the works. The 54-year-old, who served as budget minister in former President Nicolas Sarkozy’s government and was an advisor to party stalwart Jacques Chirac, is no provocateur à la Zemmour and Le Pen. She's a run-of-the-mill conservative who has vowed to get tough on immigration and rein in big government. Pécresse describes her brand as “one-third Thatcher, two-thirds Merkel.”
This is a somewhat nightmarish situation for Macron. For the French president, it’s easy to play up his sensible middle-of-the-road politics (on the right, that is) when you have Le Pen’s and Zemmour’s respective Wikipedia pages to draw upon. But Pécresse can hardly be branded as a far-right loon. What’s more, as current chief of Paris’ regional government she has experience balancing budgets and overseeing social programs.
France has a runoff presidential voting system — if no one cracks 50 percent in round one, the two top finishers face off in a second bout. A new poll shows that Pécresse would beat Macron in a runoff, while the incumbent would thrash Le Pen or Zemmour.
Does it even matter who wins? Sort of. Pécresse does not have a track record on foreign affairs, and unlike Macron, would be unlikely to advocate for European strategic autonomy or push for France to lead European policymaking.
Zemmour, on the other hand, is avowedly Euroskeptic, while Le Pen doesn’t like Brussels but says breaking away would be too damaging.
Domestically, tightening immigration rules and cracking down on crime will be priorities for all of the presidential candidates given that large swaths of the French electorate support such moves. But passing legislation through the French parliament is going to be hard for whoever wins the race because no party is likely to win a majority.
Looking ahead. Pécresse has quickly risen to third place, and is just two points behind the second-placed candidate. If she makes up the difference over the next few months, all bets are off.
What We're Watching: Who's running for president in France?
France’s right-leaning election. Valérie Pécresse, a minister in former president Nicolas Sarkozy’s government, won a primary on Saturday to lead France’s conservative Les Republicains party in next year’s presidential election. Pécresse is the first woman to head the party of Charles de Gaulle and Jacques Chirac, and is hoping to reinvigorate a party that’s become mostly irrelevant in French politics as anti-establishment sentiment grips the electorate. But Pécresse – a mainstream conservative – has her work cut out for her in an election where far right firebrands Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour are holding their own in the polls. President Emmanuel Macron is still five points ahead of Le Pen, who is currently in second place, and would reap about a quarter of the vote if the April elections were held today. But Pécresse’s entry into the race could cause some trouble for Macron. He has tried to paint himself both as a political outsider and as a middle-of-the-road liberal but he is broadly seen as a wishy-washy ideological chameleon. Macron could now be forced to veer further to the right to attract voters who might resonate with Pécresse’s tough-on-immigration and pro-business agenda, particularly amid fears that the omicron variant could force Macron to re-impose unpopular lockdowns.
What We’re Watching: Zemmour jumps in, Bong bows out, Turks get mad
Zemmour for president. After months of rising in opinion polls, far-right French polemicist Erich Zemmour has made it official: he’s running in next year’s French presidential election. Zemmour, who blames Muslims, liberals, elites, and the EU for what he sees as the decline and emasculation of France, says he is running in order to “prevent our children and our grandchildren from experiencing barbarity.” Could he win? Never say jamais these days, particularly as Zemmour has something of Donald Trump’s provocative star power and media savvy.Still, most polls show that while he could reach a second-round runoff against current President Emmanuel Macron, he would then lose decisively as moderates from across the political spectrum unite behind the incumbent. The more immediate political problem is for far-right stalwart Marine Le Pen who, in trying to broaden her appeal beyond the far right, now finds herself outflanked by the more unapologetically extreme Zemmour.
Bell tolls for Bong in the Philippines. Senator Christopher “Bong” Go, President Rodrigo Duterte’s preferred successor, has dropped out of next year’s presidential race, citing pressure from his family. That means Duterte, who is legally limited to just one term, can now give his (valuable) endorsement to someone else. As things stand, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr — son of the dictator who ran the country until the mid 1980s — is still the clear frontrunner, thanks to his name recognition and strong political alliances in vote-rich regions of the country. But current vice president Leni Robredo is gaining traction, and there is still an outside shot that world-famous boxer Manny Pacquiao, now a senator, could land a punch or two of his own ahead of the vote next May. Duterte’s endorsement could give either of those challengers a big boost, but he’s currently not on great terms with either of them.
In Turkey, prices rise and anger grows. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, like all world leaders, wants a strong economy that can boost his popularity. But Erdogan, unlike other leaders, directly intervenes in the operations of his country’s central bank. By keeping interest rates low, he encourages borrowing that can help boost economic growth. But the constant surge of money into the marketplace also fuels inflation. That’s now happening once again in Turkey, and many consumers are furious. The Turkish lira has lost more than 45 percent of its value this year, and nearly 20 percent just in the past week. Protests are popping up around the country, and police arrested more than 70 protesters in Istanbul last week. Opposition parties are calling for early elections and hoping to organize mass demonstrations. If the unrest grows, Erdogan could declare a state of emergency and grant himself powers more sweeping than those he already has. Turkey looks to be headed for a rough new year.
Eric Zemmour poster pasted sticks on a wall, with the text Zemmour President, in Hautes Alpes, Briancon.
The provocateur who is scrambling France’s election
He has been convicted of inciting racial hatred. He wants to stop immigration and force Muslims to take Christian names. He thinks women wish to be dominated by men. He says France's wartime Nazi collaborators were actually good for the Jews. His name is Éric Zemmour and he is, at the moment, the biggest sensation in French politics.
Over the past several months Zemmour, an outspoken far-right TV personality, has surged in the polls ahead of next April's presidential election. Although Zemmour hasn't formally entered the race, one recent survey placed him second only to beleaguered President Emmanuel Macron, surpassing even Marine Le Pen, stalwart of the French hard right.
So, who is this guy?
Zemmour, the son of Jews from Algeria, is not a politician. He began his career as a journalist and quickly found a perch as a firebrand rightwing provocateur on TV and radio, lamenting what he sees as the decline, Islamization, and emasculation of France.
He is, to borrow a term from American radio, a "shock jock" of the highest order, albeit one who delivers his controversial ideas in a suit and tie, writes them in bestselling books, and wraps them in a smoky air of intellectualism that plays well in France.
And he's having a moment right now — for two important reasons.
For one thing, he is filling a gap left by Le Pen who, after placing second in the last presidential election, is trying (again) to soften her image and broaden her appeal. Zemmour's rise has, polls show, come chiefly at her expense. He speaks to the racial and cultural anxieties of a sizable swath of the French right, and slakes a broader thirst for politicians who don't give a damn about the establishment's high-handed politesse politique.
And the media just can't help itself! As Zemmour's outrages get more attention, he rises in the polls, meriting further coverage. According to a study reported by Politico, he got more than ten times as much TV attention in France as Le Pen did last month. If that perilous feedback loop sounds familiar to veterans of the 2016 US presidential campaign, Zemmour welcomes the comparison with former US president Donald Trump, a man with a similarly uncanny ability to make good use of a hostile media.
With Macron's approval rating languishing in the low 40s, could Zemmour really shake up the presidential race? Yes, but not because he has any serious chance of winning himself. Remember, France has a runoff presidential voting system — if no one cracks 50 percent in round one, the two top finishers face off in a second bout. Most polls show that if either Le Pen or Zemmour make it to the second round, Macron would win handily.
But there is a danger to Macron. First, Zemmour's rise has pulled the focus away from issues Macron is comfortable on — such as managing the pandemic, European leadership, and the economy — and towards issues where he is weaker, such as security, French identity, and culture wars.
Second, and more pressing, if Zemmour and Le Pen — who are already squabbling — split the rightwing vote in round one, that could open the way for a more formidable center-right candidate to challenge Macron in round two. That might be a problem for him.
Although the French left is currently a shambolic circular firing squad, the center-right Les Republicains party has an opening to field a candidate who can give Macron a run for his money next year.
That is, if Les Republicains can agree on a candidate. At the moment, the leading contenders are Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, whom party elites seem to favor, and Xavier Bertrand, the plainspoken president of the Hauts-de-France region in Northern France, who "smashed the jaws" of Le Pen's party in recent regional elections and is already tied with Zemmour in some polls.
Le upshot. Irrespective of whether Zemmour has a chance to win the presidency, his message and his rise have already shaken up the race, and could reshape the French right for years to come.
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article stated that Le Pen had come in second in the last two French presidential elections. This is incorrect. She placed second to Macron in 2017, but in the previous election she did not make it to the final round, which was between Nicolas Sarkozy and the eventual winner, Francois Hollande. We regret the error.