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Moroccan fans gather on the Champs Elysees in Paris to celebrate Morocco s qualification for the semifinals of the World Cup.
What We're Watching: Morocco plays French politics, 11th-hour EU/Hungary deal, big energy milestone
Atlas Lions vs. French far-right
When reigning champion France takes on underdog Morocco in the World Cup semifinals on Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron will be in the stands. And whatever happens on the pitch it’s almost certain to cause tremors for him at home. The “Rocky Balboa” success of Morocco’s “Atlas Lions” – the first Arab or African team ever to make it this far in a World Cup – has struck a chord with millions of first- and second-generation French citizens of Arab and African origin. The worry is that a small minority of those fans may riot in the streets after the match — regardless of whether Morocco wins or loses — as they did last weekend in Paris after first Morocco beat Portugal and then France defeated England in the quarterfinals. Popular far-righters like TV provocateur and former presidential frontrunner Éric Zemmour will surely seize on any unrest to advance their calls for tighter restrictions on immigration. And that will cause a problem for Macron himself, who’s under pressure from the French right to pass a new law targeting illegal immigrants.
Orbán-EU draw
Another round of confrontation between the European Union and perennial EU gadfly Viktor Orbán has concluded. Once again, the Hungarian prime minister and Europe have each made concessions. This is not a surprise. Hungary’s economy and currency are struggling, and the EU has money that Orbán’s government badly needs. But Orbán knows how to pick fights with Brussels that boost his standing at home and force the EU to compromise in order to get his support for urgent European priorities. Late Monday evening, Hungary dropped its objection to an 18 billion euro ($19.15 billion) EU aid package for Ukraine and a 15% minimum tax for big corporations. In return, Hungary will get 5.8 billion euros in badly-needed COVID recovery money, and the European Commission has agreed to unfreeze 1.2 billion euros of the 7.5 billion euros it had previously withheld over concerns about corruption and rule-of-law violations in Hungary. Both sides will claim victory, but the battle will continue: the EU is still demanding reforms in Hungary that would strengthen judicial independence and anti-graft oversight. This ain’t over.
Fusion breakthrough
Well, it lasted only a few trillionths of a second, but what a few trillionths of a second they were. In a historic breakthrough, US government scientists announced they’d successfully carried out a burst of nuclear fusion, a clean energy process that (mindbogglingly) generates more energy than it requires. The long-term implications for energy, climate, and geopolitics are huge. But first, let’s set your mind at ease — after all, “nuclear fusion” sounds scary. Fusion is different than fission. Fission is what powers today’s nuclear reactors (and atomic bombs). It works by splitting atoms in a way that releases huge amounts of energy, but also generates radioactive waste and the occasional nuclear plant meltdown. Fusion, on the other hand, is the opposite: a controlled process of mixing atoms together in to produce energy. No waste. No meltdowns. But also, for now, no guarantee it can replicated at scale outside of a lab. Still, if it could it would open the way to a world-changing source of clean and sustainable energy. China and the US are already locked in a high-stakes race to develop fusion for military and civilian purposes. That viability is decades away, but all decades start with a few trillionths of a second.Natural gas pipeline.
What We're Watching: Russia cuts off gas, EU cuts off Hungary, Erdogan wants to cut Saudi deal
Is Russia’s gas strategy backfiring?
European natural gas prices soared on Wednesday after Russia turned off the gas taps to Bulgaria and Poland. Both countries, which are members of the EU and NATO, had refused to meet Vladimir Putin's recent demand that any countries deemed "unfriendly" to Moscow must pay for Russian gas in rubles. So far, Hungary is the only EU member state willing to do that, but it accounts for just a tiny portion of overall Russian gas sales to Europe. The bigger problem is whether private companies will defy their governments by agreeing to pay in rubles — and at least four have reportedly agreed to do so. For now, larger European countries like Germany have promised they'll share their gas supplies with Bulgaria and Poland so long as the Russian pipes remain closed. If that solidarity holds, and if the EU continues with plans to dramatically reduce its reliance on Russian gas, Moscow's gas leverage over the Europeans might not be as strong as Putin thought. That said, he may be betting that European consumers — read: voters — won't be willing to put up with higher prices indefinitely, particularly once winter rolls around again. Natural gas stories tend to play out over long periods of time — this one will be no exception.
Will the EU cut off Hungary?
The European Union and Hungary have long been at loggerheads over Budapest’s deteriorating democratic track record under PM Viktor Orbán and his right-wing Fidesz Party. Brussels upped the ante this week by triggering a mechanism that would allow it to withhold several billion dollars in funds from Budapest. Though details remain unclear, Brussels said that the move pertains to government corruption and the Hungarian judiciary's failure to crack down on graft. Orban, a right-wing populist who has proudly dubbed Hungary an “illiberal democracy,” recently won reelection, much to the dismay of bureaucrats in Brussels who have long accused his party of diluting judicial independence, cracking down on the press, and gerrymandering. Budapest will now have two months to respond to the motion, which will need a “qualified majority” to pass – meaning it must be backed by 55% of EU countries representing 65% of the bloc’s population. The timing is very bad for Orban, who is trying to prop up Hungary’s sagging economy – which is currently experiencing its highest inflation rate in 15 years – and was relying on EU funds for a post-pandemic boost.
Erdogan visits Saudi Arabia to bolster ties
In the latest sign of an ongoing detente between Ankara and Riyadh, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to visit Saudi Arabia on Thursday to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Relations between the two states have long been strained, in large part because Riyadh accused Turkey of backing terror groups and supporting Qatar in its long-running diplomatic dispute with Saudi Arabia. Turkey-Saudi ties got even worse after journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed by Saudi operatives in Istanbul in 2018, leading to mutual recriminations and Riyadh’s blocking of most Turkish imports. But improving ties with the Gulf states, as well as with Egypt and Israel, has been central to Erdogan’s plan to revitalize his country’s ailing economy (hyperinflation recently surpassed 60%). As part of a detente, Turkey recently acquiesced to Saudi demands, allowing the Khashoggi murder trial to be held in Riyadh (the defendants were being tried in absentia anyway). This irked human rights groups but appears to have paid off for Erdogan: Turkish exports to Saudi increased by 215% in March compared to the same time last year, and economic cooperation between the two regional powers looks likely to expand.
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban
Viktor Orban’s moment of truth
On Sunday, Hungary’s nearly eight million voters will elect 199 members of the country’s National Assembly, which is now dominated by the Fidesz Party and polarizing Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Europeans will watch closely to see if the EU’s longest-serving head of government and no. 1 gadfly can win a fourth consecutive term. Vladimir Putin will watch to see if his most-trusted ally inside the EU can survive his toughest challenge to date.
Orban’s biggest worry is that six opposition parties, which agree on little beyond a common desire to push Orban out of power, have settled on a single candidate to replace him: Peter Marki-Zay, a 49-year-old mayor from a small city in the southeast.
The backdrop for this vote is an economy that’s in bad shape. Inflation is climbing, the currency is unstable, and the EU is withholding billions of euros in COVID relief funds in response to Orban’s violations of EU rules. Brussels says Orban’s government has compromised the independence of courts and the media and refused to respect LGBTQ rights. Orban’s defense of conservative Christian social values and his government’s assault on European standards of governance have defined his years in power.
Orban and his Fidesz Party have important election advantages. He has blown out the government’s budget by increasing pensions and public-sector wages in recent months and offered tax rebates for families. In addition, “the Fidesz government’s overwhelming access to funds, control of most media, and willingness to use loopholes in election laws help account for its lead in recent polls,” says Mujtaba Rahman, a Europe expert at Eurasia Group. Fidesz also stands accused of redrawing Hungary’s electoral map in ways that ensure the opposition must win by three or four percentage points to ensure a parliamentary majority.
“Orban’s deft political handling of the war in neighboring Ukraine has also helped his party,” adds Rahman. Voters who fear Vladimir Putin appreciate that Orban has supported EU sanctions against Russia and welcomed a substantial number of Ukrainian refugees, some of them ethnic Hungarians. But he has also declared his country “neutral” in the fight, refused to send weapons to Ukraine, or to allow others to send weapons there via Hungary. And given his country’s deep dependence on discounted Russian energy, he has rejected talk of any European boycott.
Yet, despite all this, latest polls suggest his party’s election lead remains narrow. In part, that’s because his rivals have put aside their many differences to back Peter Marki-Zay, the self-described conservative Catholic, corruption-fighting mayor of the small city of Hódmezővásárhely. His social values appeal to those socially conservative voters who are tired of Orban-related dramas. His unmistakably pro-EU stance speaks to those who don’t like Orban’s open admiration for Putin. “Orban is betraying Europe, Orban is betraying NATO, Orban is betraying the United States,” Marki-Zay has said.
A Fidesz loss of its parliamentary majority would bring change. Marki-Zay would end the confrontations with the EU over court-packing, media independence, and liberal social values, freeing up the billions of euros in COVID relief funds the EU has withheld from Orban’s government, and he would fully back Ukraine and NATO. But in the more likely event that Fidesz can still form a narrow majority, little will change. “Orban would continue his balancing act, seeking to stay in line with EU condemnation of Russia while doing his best to limit damage to his friend in the Kremlin,” says Rahman.
Finally, the election itself could become a new source of controversy. An election observation mission from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe – just the second time that’s happened for a vote inside the EU – could raise questions about the election’s fairness. That would create a serious political headache at a time when Europe needs to project unity in the face of Russian aggression.