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A soldier takes a photograph of his comrade as he poses beside a destroyed Russian tank and armored vehicles in Bucha, Ukraine.
What We’re Watching: Russian war crimes, Orbán 4.0, Sri Lankan turmoil
EU sanctions loom over alleged Russian war crimes
After Russian forces withdrew from the outskirts of Ukraine's capital, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government on Sunday accused them of committing war crimes by massacring civilians in the Kyiv suburbs of Bucha, Irpin, and Hostomel. Authorities are gathering evidence of the alleged atrocities to build a case against Russian officials at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, and former ICC chief prosecutor Carla del Ponte wants to issue an international arrest warrant for Putin. To convict, Ukrainians would need to show a pattern of deliberate targeting of civilians. Still, the carnage has convinced the EU to act: it is preparing a wave of fresh sanctions against the Kremlin. It's unclear what the new measures will be, but pressure is mounting on the bloc to finally target Russian oil and natural gas, which many EU states depend on for energy. Late Sunday, Zelensky appeared at the Grammys in a pre-taped message. "Our musicians wear body armor instead of tuxedos," he said, asking viewers to support Ukraine any way they can. Meanwhile, Russia-Ukraine peace talks may resume on Monday in Turkey, and Moscow is saying it’s not yet ready for face-to-face talks between Putin and Zelensky.
Orbán wins Hungarian election
Viktor Orbán has won a fourth consecutive term as Hungary’s prime minister after his ruling Fidesz Party captured another super majority in Sunday's parliamentary election. The result was better than expected for Fidesz. "We've won a victory so big ... you can certainly see it from Brussels," Orbán said in his election night speech. He was taking a classic swipe at the EU, which has clashed with the Hungarian government over the independence of courts and the media as well as LGBT rights (which were also on the ballot on Sunday). Brussels likewise resents Orbán's open admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his refusal to send weapons to Ukraine despite (officially) condemning Russia's invasion. Orbán's victory is a big win for Putin, who now knows he'll keep at least one ally in the EU, which otherwise has done its utmost to punish Russia over the war. Looking ahead, Orbán's most immediate challenge will be convincing Brussels to unfreeze billions of euros in pandemic relief money to cover pre-election social spending.
Sri Lanka on the brink
Sri Lankans on Sunday defied a military-enforced state of emergency and a curfew to demand that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa step down amid the worst economic crisis in the country's history. Cops and soldiers fired water cannons and warning shots at protesters, who blame Rajapaksa for running out of foreign exchange reserves to pay for basic imports such as fuel, which recently forced authorities to turn off streetlights to save power. Hours later, the entire government resigned — except for the president and his brother Mahinda, the PM. Sri Lanka’s leader had previously said he's talking to China, India, and the IMF to get some relief for the country's nearly $7 billion in debt obligations for this year alone, but so far he's made little progress. More broadly, the crisis has enraged those already fed up with the concentration of power by Rajapaksa’s family and the wider political class, whom many Sri Lankans feel have done little to improve living standards in the South Asian island nation since the civil war ended in 2009. Will the people rise up to take out the Rajapaksas? If so, they won't be mobilizing on social media, because the government is blocking access to it.
- Russian war crimes push West to escalate sanctions and Ukraine support - GZERO Media ›
- Davos exhibit reveals civilian death toll in Ukraine - GZERO Media ›
- Russian war crimes exhibit at Davos reveals civilian death toll in Ukraine - GZERO Media ›
- Russian war crimes exhibit at Davos reveals civilian toll in Ukraine - GZERO Media ›
EU-China summit affected by Ukraine war
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from outside Helsinki, Finland.
How will the Ukraine war affect the EU-China summit?
Well, obviously quite substantially, because with China not taking a clear position against what is an outright, a very clear cut case of aggression it affects not only the atmospherics of the relationship with China but also the substance. There will be a greater reluctance to go into cooperation with China on different subjects where otherwise there might have been possibilities. So that effect it will have.
What's going to happen in the Hungarian election?
Well elections for elections and that applies to Hungary as well. It's a free election, although not a fair election in terms of the resources. But Prime Minister Orbán has been trying to save himself. Said that he would keep Hungary out of the war while the opposition is, of course, fighting for Europe, fighting for Hungary to be key part of the European and the Western response to the aggression in Ukraine. We'll see what happens.
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban
Viktor Orban’s moment of truth
On Sunday, Hungary’s nearly eight million voters will elect 199 members of the country’s National Assembly, which is now dominated by the Fidesz Party and polarizing Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Europeans will watch closely to see if the EU’s longest-serving head of government and no. 1 gadfly can win a fourth consecutive term. Vladimir Putin will watch to see if his most-trusted ally inside the EU can survive his toughest challenge to date.
Orban’s biggest worry is that six opposition parties, which agree on little beyond a common desire to push Orban out of power, have settled on a single candidate to replace him: Peter Marki-Zay, a 49-year-old mayor from a small city in the southeast.
The backdrop for this vote is an economy that’s in bad shape. Inflation is climbing, the currency is unstable, and the EU is withholding billions of euros in COVID relief funds in response to Orban’s violations of EU rules. Brussels says Orban’s government has compromised the independence of courts and the media and refused to respect LGBTQ rights. Orban’s defense of conservative Christian social values and his government’s assault on European standards of governance have defined his years in power.
Orban and his Fidesz Party have important election advantages. He has blown out the government’s budget by increasing pensions and public-sector wages in recent months and offered tax rebates for families. In addition, “the Fidesz government’s overwhelming access to funds, control of most media, and willingness to use loopholes in election laws help account for its lead in recent polls,” says Mujtaba Rahman, a Europe expert at Eurasia Group. Fidesz also stands accused of redrawing Hungary’s electoral map in ways that ensure the opposition must win by three or four percentage points to ensure a parliamentary majority.
“Orban’s deft political handling of the war in neighboring Ukraine has also helped his party,” adds Rahman. Voters who fear Vladimir Putin appreciate that Orban has supported EU sanctions against Russia and welcomed a substantial number of Ukrainian refugees, some of them ethnic Hungarians. But he has also declared his country “neutral” in the fight, refused to send weapons to Ukraine, or to allow others to send weapons there via Hungary. And given his country’s deep dependence on discounted Russian energy, he has rejected talk of any European boycott.
Yet, despite all this, latest polls suggest his party’s election lead remains narrow. In part, that’s because his rivals have put aside their many differences to back Peter Marki-Zay, the self-described conservative Catholic, corruption-fighting mayor of the small city of Hódmezővásárhely. His social values appeal to those socially conservative voters who are tired of Orban-related dramas. His unmistakably pro-EU stance speaks to those who don’t like Orban’s open admiration for Putin. “Orban is betraying Europe, Orban is betraying NATO, Orban is betraying the United States,” Marki-Zay has said.
A Fidesz loss of its parliamentary majority would bring change. Marki-Zay would end the confrontations with the EU over court-packing, media independence, and liberal social values, freeing up the billions of euros in COVID relief funds the EU has withheld from Orban’s government, and he would fully back Ukraine and NATO. But in the more likely event that Fidesz can still form a narrow majority, little will change. “Orban would continue his balancing act, seeking to stay in line with EU condemnation of Russia while doing his best to limit damage to his friend in the Kremlin,” says Rahman.
Finally, the election itself could become a new source of controversy. An election observation mission from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe – just the second time that’s happened for a vote inside the EU – could raise questions about the election’s fairness. That would create a serious political headache at a time when Europe needs to project unity in the face of Russian aggression.Macron shakes hands with Putin, at the French president's summer retreat.
Putin invades the year’s big elections
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is shifting politics inside every major country in the world. Here are four countries holding big elections this year — with details on how Vladimir Putin’s war is making a difference in Hungary, France, Brazil, and the United States.
Hungary — parliamentary elections on April 3
No EU head of government has friendlier ties with Putin than Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. But Russia’s invasion, says Mujtaba Rahman, head of Eurasia Group’s Europe desk, “is politically problematic for Orbán because it rekindles memories of the 1956 Soviet invasion for both pro- and anti-Orbán voters.” On the eve of what’s expected to be a close election, Hungary’s prime minister has had to strike a delicate balance on the war.
On the one hand, despite Hungary’s energy dependence on Russia, Orbán decided quickly after the invasion to back EU sanctions on Russia. On the other, fear of losing crucial pro-Russia voters to far-right election rivals encouraged him to oppose some EU plans, such as shipments of European weapons to Ukraine’s army.
In the end, Orbán’s dexterity in managing this crisis may boost his party’s chances next month.
France — presidential election on April 10 and April 24
Putin has done France’s President Emmanuel Macron an enormous favor. By starting a war during France’s six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union, he’s handed Macron the chance to play crucial European statesman rather than presidential candidate urgently hustling for votes.
The war has also sucked oxygen from the campaign of his rival, far-right favorite Marine Le Pen, who has “an embarrassing history of admiration for Vladimir Putin,” according to Rahman. In fact, her party courted controversy by borrowing money from a Russian-owned bank in 2014, when the National Rally Party was opposing Western sanctions against Russia over its seizure of Crimea.
Macron has now become a strong favorite to win a second-round victory on April 24.
Brazil — general election on October 2
Further afield, the war in Ukraine creates risks for Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro. Problem one is that he made a considerable show of visiting Putin in Moscow just days before the invasion to express “solidarity with Russia.” For some Brazilian voters, that’s an embarrassing reminder of Bolsonaro’s own controversial military background and hyper-macho political rhetoric. After the invasion, the president insisted that Brazil would remain “neutral,” alienating some voters on both sides.
But the Russian invasion’s biggest impact on Brazilian politics this year will be economic. In presidential polls, Bolsonaro now trails his main rival, former president Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, in part because high inflation (10% in 2021) has taken a toll on the purchasing power of millions of voters. A lasting global inflation shock, exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war, will undermine his chances of catching up.
US — midterm elections on November 6 and the 2024 presidential election
A recent poll found that 74% of American respondents said Russia’s invasion was unjustified, and 76% expressed a negative personal view of Vladimir Putin. But this is a question on which Democrats are far more united than Republicans, casting a shadow over GOP expectations of victory in November.
That vote is still eight months away, and President Biden’s relative unpopularity probably will deliver Congress to the GOP. By summer, Russia’s role in high gasoline prices will matter less than it does today to frustrated consumers.
But what about the 2024 presidential election? Just 3% of that poll’s respondents who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 were willing to say Biden is “doing a better job leading his country” than Putin is. If Trump runs again, his continuing public admiration for Putin — the former president called the Ukraine invasion “genius” — could cost him considerable support. After all, 58% of Republican voters back Ukraine at the moment.
Even if Trump settles for the role of GOP kingmaker, his support of Putin could divide both Republican leaders and voters — and alienate some GOP-leaning independents. Especially in the highly likely event that Russia features prominently in election-year headlines.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán
Orbán fights for his political life
Just six weeks away from a national election, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is facing the political fight of his life. In recent days, the right-wing populist leader, who has proudly dubbed Hungary an “illiberal democracy,” launched his re-election campaign with a speech rallying against war between Russia and Ukraine. He also voiced support for the EU project despite saying that Brussel was waging “jihad” against his country.
What is Orbán’s game plan, and how are things looking for him and his ruling Fidesz Party?
Background: An “anyone but Orbán” election. Opposition groups are working together to try and oust the 58-year-old Orbán, a divisive figure who’s been in power since 2010. During that time, he has been accused of hollowing out Hungary’s governing institutions, undermining democracy, and damaging his country’s standing within the European Union.
United for Hungary – a broad coalition including the far-right Jobbik party as well as the progressive Democratic Coalition – has put partisanship aside in a bid to send Orbán packing. The group of strange bedfellows recently tapped Péter Márki-Zay, a politically conservative small-town mayor from southeastern Hungary, to lead the bloc. This is bad news for Orbán, an arch-conservative with strong support in rural and small-town Hungary, who paints his opponents as progressive shills. That charge doesn’t quite stick to Márki-Zay, a devout Catholic with seven kids. For now, the odds are still in Orbán’s favor.
Spending spree. Orbán has traditionally been fiscally cautious, and he was credited with slashing public debt after the financial crisis and steering the country away from default.
But Orbán has changed tack in recent months. Facing a tight race, he is trying to woo pandemic-weary Hungarians by boosting spending on pensions. In total, new government handouts and tax cuts could cost some 5 billion euros.
The Russian connection. Orbán, who entered politics in 1989 by forming an anti-Soviet youth party, has in recent years cozied up to the Kremlin, a fellow “illiberal” and conservative power center. In recent weeks, as Russia-Ukraine tensions were rising, Orbán – who leads a NATO member state – met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow, where he expressed sympathy for the Kremlin’s position on Ukraine.
Orbán was also trying to shore up natural gas supplies from Russia in order to keep fuel prices down at home – and in the process, was hoping to boost his image as an international statesman. It’s unclear whether he pulled that off.
The Ukraine wildcard. For as chummy as Orbán and Putin are, the Ukraine situation is still a wildcard factor for Hungary’s election. A Russian invasion could drive a major surge of refugees west to the Hungarian border. Orbán has famously opposed immigration from the Middle East and Africa. Would he feel differently about Ukrainians? The last thing he wants is to have to figure that out in the homestretch of a tough reelection fight.
Looking ahead. Orbán has become a populist icon in recent years. Trump enthusiastically endorsed him for reelection, and Fox News personality Tucker Carlson has also showered the Hungarian leader with affection. Orbán’s fate could very well be a bellwether for global populist nationalism in a post-COVID world.
Five choices
We have lots of big elections on deck in 2022. Today we’ll preview five that will feature high international stakes and especially colorful candidates.
France (April) — President Emmanuel Macron is expected to seek re-election, and at this early stage he looks likely to win. Marine Le Pen, an anti-EU far-right firebrand, appears set to try to rebrand herself yet again in hopes of earning a second-round rematch with the centrist Macron, who defeated her by nearly 2-1 in their head-to-head battle in 2017. But Le Pen will be elbowed on one side by center-right establishment candidate Valérie Pécresse. On the other, she’ll face constant pressure from France’s new election wildcard, Eric Zemmour, a TV personality who claims left-wing elites want to consolidate power by replacing white French citizens with immigrants from North Africa and the Middle East.
Hungary (April) — Here the outsized personality belongs to incumbent Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister since 2010, who now faces his toughest election challenge to date. Though Orbán insists he wants Hungary to remain within the EU, criticism of the union forms a central part of his appeal to loyal supporters. His moves in recent years to tighten his grip on power, stack the country’s courts with loyalists, silence media critics, close the country’s borders to non-EU migrants, and restrict the rights of LGBT people have earned pushback from the EU. But the big story here is that six opposition parties have joined forces with the single aim of ousting Orbán.
Colombia (May-June) — Colombians will choose a new Congress in March, but it’s the presidential election in May and June that might make history. For now, Senator Gustavo Petro, a former Marxist guerrilla and mayor of Bogotá, is the wildcard to watch — and the favorite to win. He owes part of his popularity to his own formidable political gifts. But he’s also helped by the unpopularity of the incumbent, Iván Duque, and a year of controversy and public frustration over Duque’s botched tax reform and pandemic response plans. (Duque is term-limited, even if he weren’t politically toxic.) A Petro victory would mark a major political turning point in Colombia, traditionally a center-right country in which decades of war with Marxist militants — and the ongoing disaster next door in socialist-led Venezuela — have long stigmatized leftist politics at the national level.
Brazil (October) — Many recent elections around the world have pitted a charismatic populist against a defender of the political establishment. Not so in Brazil next year, where October’s presidential election will feature a battle for the ages between incumbent right-wing lightning-rod Jair Bolsonaro and former president Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva, one of Latin America’s most dynamic left-wing populists. Critics have hammered Bolsonaro for his dismissive attitude toward COVID, and he’s aroused anger by denouncing the integrity of the election itself. Lula is well ahead in early polls, but Bolsonaro’s popularity has risen recently on promises of cash help for the poor, a decidedly off-brand maneuver for a leader who usually dismisses the need for empathy in policymaking. These two brilliant political performance artists will probably deliver the most volatile election of 2022.
US midterms (November) — Much of the US political drama next year will come directly from Donald Trump. The former president and master showman hopes to use November’s midterm congressional elections to tighten his grip on the Republican Party ahead of the 2024 presidential election. In many ways, the hotly contested races for majority control of Congress will be a referendum on increasingly unpopular President Joe Biden, and on Democrats too busy arguing with one another to deliver on some of their grandest campaign promises from 2020. But Trump’s active backing for Republicans who signal personal loyalty to him and his agenda against more independent-minded GOP incumbents makes this set of midterms — as well as state and local elections — less predictable than most.
We’ll also be writing in the coming weeks about upcoming elections in South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, Kenya, and elsewhere.What We're Watching: Viktor Orbán's rival, Pakistan's Taliban making moves, abducted Americans in Haiti
Can this guy defeat Viktor Orban? Hungary's opposition movement of odd bedfellows has finally settled on the person they think has the best chance of defeating PM Viktor Orbán at the ballot box: Péter Márki-Zay, a politically conservative small-town mayor from southeastern Hungary, who beat out left-leaning European Parliament member Klara Dobrev in a weekend poll. Márki-Zay has a lot going for him: as a devout Catholic and father of seven it will be hard for the ultraconservative Orbán to paint him as a progressive threat, even as Márki-Zay reaches out to reassure left-leaning groups that he will protect LGBTQ rights. What's more, Márki-Zay has little political baggage: until recently he was a marketing executive. But can the relatively inexperienced Márki-Zay keep the various opposition factions happy? The stakes couldn't be higher: since taking power more than a decade ago, Orbán has deliberately made Hungary into an "illiberal" state, cracking down on the press, undermining the rule of law, and clashing with the EU. Bonus: if Márki-Zay stays in the news, you get to say "Hódmezővásárhely" the name of the city he currently runs.
Pakistani Taliban making a move? Emboldened by the triumph of their coreligionists in Afghanistan, Pakistan's Taliban movement — known as Tehrik-e-Taliaban, or TTP — is becoming more active as well. Seven years ago,Pakistan's military crushed the TTP in the regions of Pakistan along the Afghanistan border where they operate. But local reports say that they are coming back now, extorting local businesses, seizing territory, and carrying out terrorist attacks that have killed hundreds of civilians and soldiers. Pakistan, of course, has long-standing ties to the Afghan Taliban, but it's not clear whether that will help them manage growing tensions with the Pakistani Taliban who, for now, want political recognition and control over tribal borderlands. Would it be a mistake for Islamabad to negotiate with the TTP? A poll from last week showed that 55 percent of Pakistanis would welcome a Taliban-style government throughout the country.
Can Biden rescue abducted Americans in Haiti? Crisis-wracked Haiti was rocked by another catastrophe Sunday, when gang members abducted 17 foreign missionary workers (16 Americans and one Canadian national), including five children. It is yet another sign of the deteriorating security situation in the country, where nearly complete lawlessness has reigned since President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in July. Large swaths of the capital Port-au Prince are now dominated by increasingly powerful gangs, who rule by terror and often kidnap civilians for ransom. In recent days, even Prime Minister Ariel Henry himself was forced to flee an official commemoration ceremony in the capital when gangs drove his security detail from the site. The US says it is working closely with the Haitian government to rescue the kidnapped missionaries, but remained mum on details. The Biden administration says it doesn't pay ransoms to terrorist groups or gangs, but we're watching to see whether it caves to the bad guys' demands.