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Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei gives a speech in Buenos Aires on Aug. 7, 2023.
Populism rules the day in Argentina
Far-right eccentric economist Javier Milei surprised everyone in Argentina’s primary election on Sunday. Faced with 116% annual inflation, a 43% poverty rate, a plunging peso, and rising crime, voters responded at the polls by awarding Milei the most votes.
With more than 90% of the ballots counted, Milei has 30% while the conservative opposition bloc has just 28%, and the ruling Peronist coalition has 27%.
Elected to Congress in 2021, the fiery Milei was a television personality and economist before making the leap to politics. Often compared to former US President Donald Trump and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, Milei is known as much for his controversial beliefs (he wants to legalize the sale of human organs, considers climate change a “socialist lie,” and says sex education is a ploy to destroy the family) as his brash style (he belts out rock songs at rallies and claims to have not brushed his hair in decades).
To tackle Argentina’s economic woes, Milei wants to follow Ecuador’s lead and dollarize the economy, implement a “complete reform of the state” by eliminating government ministries, shuttering or privatizing state-run companies, and slashing taxes and cutting spending by 15%.
Sunday’s vote determined which candidates will participate in the first round of voting on October 22 – with those who drew less than 1.5% of the vote ineligible. Analysts say Milei's better-than-expected performance makes him the likely winner of the upcoming election. But it could also lead to higher inflationary and foreign exchange pressures – not only because the government will spend aggressively to reverse results, but also because Milei's victory is the most destabilizing imaginable.
If Milei wins the presidency, however, Eurasia Group analyst Luciano Sigalov says he will face enormous governability challenges as he will lack the majority needed in Congress to pass aggressive pro-market reforms. Strong Peronism and social movements mean he will also find major resistance in the streets.
Can a far-right populist win in Argentina?
For the first time ever, someone unaffiliated with either of Argentina’s two main political blocs is making a serious run at the presidency. In fact, Javier Milei is not a traditional politician but an eccentric economist and TV provocateur who promises radical measures to rescue an economy in shambles and tame an annual inflation rate hovering over 100%. He claims to not have brushed his hair since he was 13 and is famous for antics like auctioning off his paycheck. With six months to go to the Oct. 22 election, Milei's message is resonating especially with young voters fed up with a political establishment that has long been unable to solve the country’s problems. Let's learn more about this guy from Eurasia Group analyst Luciano Sigalov.
Who is Javier Milei?
A former university professor and corporate economist, the 52-year-old Milei first captured the public’s attention as a conservative pundit on television talk shows. His unruly hair, wild eyes, and inflammatory statements – for example, calling politicians “thieves” and “criminals” – made him a charismatic figure. In 2021, Milei won a seat in congress. Now, he is running for president as the head of his Liberty Advances party.
What are Milei’s political views?
His views have a lot in common with those of far-right populists such as Donald Trump and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro. Milei believes politics is a no-holds-barred contest between the “good guys” and the “bad guys,” the latter represented by traditional political parties from the left to the center right of the political spectrum, which he calls the “caste.” He opposes feminism and abortion as part of a crusade against “cultural Marxism” that he believes has awarded minority groups with too many rights, to the detriment of what he considers ordinary people. And he promises a return to an early-20th-century golden era when Argentina was one of the richest countries in the world thanks to its booming agricultural and beef exports.
Milei calls himself an “anarcho-capitalist” – what does that mean?
Anarcho-capitalists seek the dismantling of the state and the creation of a society regulated solely by the free interactions of individuals and their property. But given the impossibility of implementing this vision in the real world, Milei wants to reduce the state’s presence to a bare minimum. He has proposed eliminating several ministries, privatizing state-owned companies, dollarizing the economy, and shuttering the central bank.
Why is Milei so popular?
He is a gifted demagogue who has effectively tapped into a rising tide of antiestablishment sentiment. Opinion surveys show that his popularity is driven more by his vehement criticism of the political elite than by his radical policy proposals and references to economic theories most people have never heard of. Yet the simplicity of the solutions he offers to intractable problems also has appeal for many voters – especially his proposal to replace the country’s currency with the dollar as a remedy for runaway inflation.
What are his main strengths and weaknesses as a candidate?
Novelty is his biggest strength. He has not previously been in government, so he can freely criticize the two main political coalitions, blaming them for all the country’s problems. Yet his rhetoric is too radical to win over many voters, and he lacks an organization capable of conducting an effective national campaign. Nor does he have a team ready to assume office if he wins.
What do the polls say about his chances?
Polls in Argentina do not have a good track record, so they need to be taken with a pinch of salt. The latest polling is tied to the Aug. 13 primaries (everyone running for president in Argentina is required to participate in the primaries, even if they are their parties’ only candidates, as in Milei’s case). Recent surveys show that about 20% of respondents say they would vote for Milei in the primaries, second only to the share supporting Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (25%), who is not running. That said, the two potential candidates for the Together for Change opposition have a combined vote share of about 30%. The ruling Everybody’s Front has about 25%. President Alberto Fernández — no relation to his Veep — is not running for reelection.
The polling suggests that Milei has a good chance of a second-place finish in the Oct. 22 election, which could force a runoff between the top two finishers on Nov. 19. A runoff is required if the election’s winner fails to obtain at least 45% of the vote or 40% of the vote and at least a 10 percentage point lead over the second-place finisher.
What does Milei’s fame tell us about the state of Argentinian politics and the country today?
It reflects the failure of the political class to agree on basic policies to get the country moving again and end an economic crisis that has gone on for far too long. It also shows that, even though memories of the country’s 1976-83 military dictatorship remain fresh, Argentines are not immune to the appeal of far-right populism and politicians of dubious democratic credentials.
Is Milei an authoritarian?
He has made numerous comments that suggest he might not respect the rules of democracy were he to win the election. He has enthusiastically praised leaders such as Trump and Bolsonaro, who sought to undermine the rule of law in their countries, and has said he would resort to popular consultation mechanisms if congress were to reject his reform plans. When talking about Argentina’s golden era, he links its end to the election of Hipólito Yrigoyen as president in the country’s first free and fair vote in 1916. And though Milei condemns the recent military dictatorship, he disputes the official number of 30,000 people killed or kidnapped by the regime.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor, Eurasia Group.
Supporters gather in front of the house of Argentina's Vice-President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner after she was attacked in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
What We’re Watching: Argentine VP assassination attempt, Ethiopian escalation, Zaporizhzhia tour
Argentine VP survives assassination attempt
Argentina's influential VP Cristina Fernández de Kirchner survived an assassination attempt on Thursday night outside her residence in Buenos Aires. A gunman took aim from close range, but his loaded weapon failed to fire. Cops then arrested the man, a Brazilian national with a history of following hate groups on social media. We don’t know the motive and political violence in the country rarely gets bloody, but political tensions have been running very high since last week, when a prosecutor asked for the far-left firebrand VP and former president to be sentenced to 12 years in prison for corruption. Still, her trial will be anything but swift, and Cristina — as she’s universally known — is unlikely to go to jail for charges she calls a "witch hunt." President Alberto Fernández (no relation, nor a big fan of the VP) declared a national holiday on Friday, which the conservative opposition decried as a gambit to turn out crowds in favor of Cristina.
Eritrea jumps back into Ethiopia’s civil war
Eritrean troops have joined Ethiopian government forces in a fresh attack on the Tigray region, according to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. If confirmed independently, this would represent a major (re)escalation in the nearly two-year-long conflict between the Ethiopian government and Tigray militants who are seeking greater autonomy. Last year, Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed admitted Eritrean involvement in the war, after initially denying it. Until the resumption of fighting last week, the front had been largely quiet for months under a tenuous humanitarian truce, and diplomats were working to broker a more durable peace. That path looks closed now as both sides gear up for a full-fledged fight again. The war has already led to a humanitarian catastrophe in Tigray that is spilling into neighboring Sudan, and the UN has accused both sides of grave human rights violations and war crimes.
UN nuclear inspectors assess Zaporizhzhia damage
Arriving hours later than expected, a team of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors on Thursday visited the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine. After touring the facility for the first time, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi tweeted an on-site video vowing to set up shop there. But the last leg of the trip was almost derailed by heavy shelling, which Kyiv and Moscow blamed on each other. The Ukrainians say Russian artillery fire forced them to briefly shut down one of the reactors, while the Russians claim that the Ukrainians tried — and failed — to use the visit as cover for an assault to retake the site. Zaporizhzhia, Europe's largest nuclear power plant, seemed on the brink of disaster after six months of intense fighting near the perimeter, overworked staff, and likely damage to the facility. But the odds of another Chernobyl have now been reduced by the presence of the IAEA team — as long as Russia, keeps its word and lets the foreign scientists stay.
A person wears a cap with images of Argentina's President Alberto Fernández and VP Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.
What We’re Watching: Argentine VP’s legal woes, angry Haitians, Pakistan’s Qatari cash push, Trump’s DOJ suit
Is Argentina's VP on the ropes?
An Argentine prosecutor wants VP Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to spend 12 years behind bars and be disqualified from public office for life for alleged corruption from when her husband was president (2003-2007) and her own two terms in the top job (2007-2015). Cristina — popularly known by her first name — is accused of fixing public works contracts in the southern Patagonia region. The verdict drops in December, but it can be appealed and the process would likely drag on until late 2023 — just in time for the next election. Even if she's convicted, the influential VP is unlikely to see a jail cell. Although she won't have immunity if she loses her Senate seat, the Supreme Court is unlikely to ratify a guilty sentence that would be a political bomb. Still, the trial will have big implications for Cristina and the ruling Peronistas. First, a conviction might compel her to shape the 2023 presidential race by picking a loyal candidate and not the incumbent, Alberto Fernández (no relation), whom Cristina famously doesn't get along with. Second, the legal troubles might help Cristina fire up her base, especially if she decides to run for president. "She views all of this as a conspiracy between the judiciary, businessmen, and the opposition to remove her," says Eurasia Group analyst Luciano Sigalov.
Haitians demand PM’s resignation
Ça suffit! So say thousands of demonstrators in Port-au-Prince. Fed up with sky-high inflation, deepening poverty, and the spread of deadly gang violence, protesters are taking to the streets of Haiti’s capital to demand the resignation of PM and acting President Ariel Henry. Kidnappings and murder are on the rise — more than 200 were killed in just 10 days last month — and Haitians are increasingly worried about their mere survival. Henry has been in power since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021, and many suspect that Henry was somehow behind the hit. At least one protester has reportedly died in this week’s demonstrations, and things could quickly grow worse. Some 50% of Haitians are living in poverty, struggling to keep up with inflation upwards of 30%, and saying: enough is enough.
Pakistani PM in Qatar, hat in hand
What would you do if you were staring down the barrel of default and your sworn enemy – who you’re trying to send to jail – was threatening mass unrest? Get out of Dodge, ask for money, and hope the political drama boils over before you return. That's what embattled Pakistani PM Shebhaz Sharif likely hopes to accomplish this week during his visit to Qatar. In Doha, Sharif will offer deals for Qatar to buy shares in Pakistani state-owned businesses like the national airline and — checks notes — the Roosevelt Hotel in New York City, as well as opportunities to sell Pakistan more energy. More importantly, Sharif's trip comes ahead of next week's big meeting to secure a $1.2 billion IMF bailout negotiated in 2019 by ... his predecessor Imran Khan, Sharif's other big headache. Khan, who was ousted in an April no-confidence vote, has been charged with violating the anti-terror act for threatening the judiciary in a fiery speech. The former PM has been summoned to appear before the court to answer the charge on Aug. 31, and Khan's supporters have responded by surrounding his residence to thwart his potential arrest. If the former cricket star is convicted, he faces a prison term and lifetime disqualification from politics.
Trump sues DOJ over Mar-a-Lago search
Donald Trump is suing the Justice Department in a bid to stop the FBI from looking over documents taken from the former US president’s Mar-a-Lago home earlier this month. The materials were recovered as part of an investigation into whether Trump mishandled them — but he says he’s done nothing wrong and that the documents were declassified. The lawsuit requests that an independent lawyer review the documents to see whether any are protected by executive privilege. Since Trump is a likely presidential candidate for 2024, the suit warns that law enforcement “cannot be used as a weapon for political purposes." DOJ officials say that the search warrant was authorized by a federal court “upon the required finding of probable cause,” and they’ll get their chance to address the lawsuit in court. Meanwhile, the judge who approved the search warrant is still deciding whether to allow the evidence presented as justification for the search to go public.Argentina's VP Cristina Fernández de Kirchner waves at supporters next to President Alberto Fernández at the closing campaign rally before the 2021 midterm elections in Buenos Aires.
War of the Fernandezes in Argentina
Argentina's leftwing government is led by two people named Fernández: President Alberto Fernández and his vice president, the almost equally powerful former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.
The two have always been odd bedfellows, and often clash over policy. But lately their disagreements have reached fever pitch, fueling rumors of a split that could hurt the president's reelection odds next year amid a worsening economic crisis: sky-high inflation, a plummeting peso, capital controls, and Argentina's usual piling debt.
Why don't the president and the VP get along, and what does that mean for Argentina's political future? We get some clarity from Eurasia Group's Daniel Kerner and Luciano Sigalov.
Why was the recent resignation of the economy minister such a big deal?
Fernández had no plan to replace now-former Economy Minister Martin Guzmán when he resigned on 2 July via Twitter, while Cristina — popularly known by her first name in Argentina — was delivering a speech.
Guzmán was one of the president's closest advisers and one of the few officials that still stood with him despite increasing pressures to resign from Cristina and her group. Fernández struggled to find a replacement because nobody wanted to take the post unless guaranteed a strong political backing to conduct needed adjustments, and this, of course, was absent.
Just a few weeks before, Economic Development Minister Matías Kulfas also left the cabinet due to infighting with the VP.
Why have tensions been mounting between the president and the VP?
Cristina has been very critical of the $44 billion debt restructuring deal with the IMF signed earlier this year, arguing that Guzman didn’t negotiate hard enough with the IMF as former President Mauricio Macri did in 2018.
In parallel, she resents Fernández and Guzmán for spending cuts mandated by the IMF that in her view led to the Peronistas losing big in last November's midterm elections. On top of this, Cristina thinks that the president and Guzmán have not been tough enough on the private sector to curb rising inflation and protect dwindling US dollar reserves.
Fernandez's attempts to rebut these criticisms have always resulted in more attacks from Cristina and her allies, generating a vicious cycle of ever-escalating attacks within the ruling coalition. Overall, the VP believes the government should borrow and spend more to boost support for the administration, which is risky given high inflation and lack of resources.
Who’s really calling the shots?
Nobody, and that's the problem. Cristina is by far the most influential figure in the ruling coalition, where she has de-facto veto power. A two-time president (2007-2015), she captained the creation of the Everybody’s Front, and it was her idea to field Fernández against Macri in the 2019 presidential election. But she avoids taking responsibility for policy, so we have a government with no plan and driven mostly by inertia.
Who do you think will prevail in the long run?
Tensions will remain high, and likely unresolved. Fernández is unlikely to resign, as he wants to finish his term, while Cristina doesn't want to cause an even deeper crisis if she becomes president. At this point, it's evident that Cristina is the most relevant stakeholder of the ruling coalition and always ultimately prevails. Therefore, she will become more active in the coming months as she tries to influence policy-making and shape who runs for president in 2023.
What is the outlook for the IMF program?
Guzman's replacement, Silvina Batakis, sent a signal of moderation by reaffirming the government's commitment to the IMF agreement, in an effort to play down the perception that she would cave to pressure from Cristina to drive policy into further interventionism. But this was not enough to calm foreign exchange and local debt markets. For the moment, a full renegotiation of the IMF program looks unlikely, though there might be talks to alter some points of the program (Batakis is meeting IMF officials for the first time on Monday). While Cristina is unlikely to push for a quick break, she will resist adjustments — especially as the presidential race approaches, increasing the likelihood that targets won’t be met. In this scenario of a heightened political crisis and weak economic leadership, going into arrears with the IMF will depend much more on the IMF’s flexibility than on how Argentina implements the deal.
How will the split affect next year's election?
Cristina wants to decide who the candidates will be — of course not Fernández, despite his intention to run for re-election. She will be more active in the coming months as she will attempt to shape the ticket, but there are no seriously competitive Peronista candidates. Also, the VP might think twice before settling on a candidate to avoid repeating her mistake of picking a “traitor” in Fernández.
If Macri, who is as polarizing a figure for the left as Cristina is for the right, decides to run, she could feel compelled to compete herself. Nonetheless, Macri’s candidacy could intensify divisions within the opposition coalition Together for Change.
Overall, the administration’s troubles will benefit the opposition. But the real wildcard is growing discontent with the political class as a whole.