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Would China really invade Taiwan?

The cover story of The Economist declares that Taiwan is "The most dangerous place on Earth," because China might finally be ready to plan an invasion of the island. But are the consequences of such a move worth the many risks to China and its President Xi Jinping? Ian Bremmer breaks out the Red Pen to to explain why a US-China war over Taiwan is unlikely.

We are taking our red pen to a recent article from The Economist. The Economist, you ask, how could I? I love The Economist, I know, I know. But you'd lose respect if I give this piece a pass. In fact, it was the magazine's cover story this week, so I had no choice. The image and headline say it all. Here it is, Taiwan is now "the most dangerous place on earth" as US/China relations continue to sour in the opening months of President Biden's administration.

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Should the US boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympic Games?

Florida Congressman Mike Waltz has called for a US boycott of the 2022 Olympic Games in Beijing. Waltz, a conservative Republican and Trump supporter, makes his case not for military or economic reasons but for humanitarian grounds: "I don't see how, after unleashing Covid on the world, clearly covering it up, arresting journalists, arresting doctors, refusing to share data, and the ongoing genocide that two Secretaries of State from two different administrations have now agreed is happening, that we reward Beijing with this international platform to whitewash everything that they've done to the world."

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A gentler US approach to China wouldn't fix their relationship

Should the Biden administration "reverse course on China" in the hope of establishing a friendlier relationship, as diplomat Kishore Mahbubani argues in a recent Financial Times op-ed? Ian Bremmer and Eurasia Group analyst Michael Hirson take out the Red Pen to explain why it's not that simple.

And today, we are talking about the United States and China. The relationship between the two most powerful nations in the world is the worst it's been since the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989. Pundits and policymakers alike all around the world are trying to figure out how Washington and Beijing can at least stop the bleeding because a reset is nowhere in the cards.

That's the topic of the op-ed that we are looking at today. It's from the Financial Times, written by Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani, and the title summarizes the key argument: "Biden should summon the courage to reverse course on China." Meaning, he should throw out the Trump era approach and open the door to more cooperation and kinder, gentler relations.

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Israel's highly charged election; EU-China deal at risk over sanctions

Ian Bremmer discusses Israel's election, the EU-China tensions over sanctions, and Putin's jab on this edition of World In 60 Seconds.

Will Israel's fourth election in two years finally provide the country stability?

Well, I mean, to be fair, the country is actually stable. Seven million people rolling out vaccines faster than any other country around the world. I mean, you know, life is relatively normal unless you're in the occupied territories as a Palestinian. But the politics are indeed problematic. It is very close, indeed. It is conceivable that Netanyahu will be able, by the skin of his teeth, to put together a very, very right-wing coalition, that could threaten democracy. It's also conceivable that no one can put together a coalition, it depends on small parties, in which case you could have a fifth election in two years. Yes, that could easily happen. There you go.

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US-China relations can be improved under Biden, but geopolitical rivalry & human rights can't be ignored

In their latest op-ed for Project Syndicate, Javier Solana and Eugenio Bregolat stress the importance of the US and China not becoming staunch enemies - but the piece also avoids some uncomfortable truths about the US-China competition. Ian Bremmer, along with Eurasia Group analysts Michael Hirson and Jeffrey Wright, grabbed The Red Pen to clarify a few points re the US-China relationship.

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China's global ambitions & plummeting relationship with the US

"US/China relations have been plummeting. Pretty much everything is getting worse," Ian Bremmer tells viewers in this week's episode of GZERO World. In this commentary on the current state of play between the two global powerhouses, Bremmer breaks down the chess game that could be leading to a new Cold War: Travel between the two sides is restricted. Trade and tech competition abound. Beijing is consolidating control over Hong Kong and threatening Taiwan, while its internment of Uighurs has grown more severe. Meanwhile, Europe and developing nations alike are left with a very difficult choice.

What We're Watching: Trump and AMLO's rendezvous, and Uighurs seek justice at the ICC

AMLO and Trump: an unlikely duo – When Mexico's populist president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as AMLO, shakes hands with President Trump at the White House on Wednesday to celebrate the new United States-Mexico-Canada trade deal, it will mark AMLO's first foreign trip since he assumed office nearly two years ago. In the run up to the meeting, both Trump and AMLO have boasted of warm personal ties, but the friendship is… an unlikely one. Recall when AMLO was elected in 2018, most analysts predicted that he would clash with Trump over immigration and trade (AMLO had long advocated for Mexicans' right to work in the United States, while Trump infamously referred to Mexican migrants as "criminals" and vowed to abolish NAFTA, the free trade agreement that was a boon for Mexico's economy.) But in endearing himself to Trump, AMLO may have calculated that, from Mexico's standpoint, a revised trade deal is better than no trade deal at all, and has thus been willing to appease the US president on issues like immigration. (As part of an agreement with the Trump administration, for example, AMLO deployed the National Guard to stop Central Americans trying to reach the US via Mexican territory.) Moreover, in flying to Washington now AMLO might also be keen to distract attention from his own poor handling of the coronavirus pandemic, which has seen Mexico's death toll surpass 30,000 in recent days, now one of the highest in the world.

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What We're Watching: Trump and the Uighurs, Maduro tightens his grip, George Floyd's impact in Indonesia

Does Trump support the Uighurs or not? President Trump signed a law Wednesday that would allow the United States to sanction Chinese officials involved in the detainment of that country's Uighur Muslim minority in Xinjiang province, a scheme long deemed to be a gross human rights violation by the United Nations. More than one million Uighurs are believed to have been locked up since 2017 as part of what Beijing describes as a benign "deradicalization campaign," but is widely believed to be a network of internment camps where minorities are held indefinitely without trial. President Trump said the measure is proof that his administration is "tough on China", and Chinese leaders have vowed retaliation. But the signing came on the same day as fresh allegations from former national security adviser John Bolton that Trump had at one point given the green light to Chinese President Xi Jinping to build the Uighur camps and asked for help with his own re-election campaign. The Trump administration says Bolton's claims, which are difficult to prove, are the lies of a "sick puppy."

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