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Hard Numbers: India & EFTA sign trade deal, Oppenheimer's Oscars, Biden's big haul, Portuguese polls, Irish vote down constitutional change, New hope for Libya
100 billion: India has signed a trade agreement with the four members of the European Free Trade Association — Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland — aimed at integrating supply chains and opening new opportunities for trade and investment. The deal includes a commitment to invest a whopping $100 billion in India over the next 15 years to create 1 million jobs.
7: The big winner at the Oscars on Sunday was "Oppenheimer," director Christopher Nolan's historic drama about the invention of nuclear weapons, which took home seven prizes, including Best Film. The documentary "20 Days in Mariupol" also won Ukraine its first Oscar.
10 million: The Biden campaign says it raised over $10 million in the 24 hours following the State of the Union, which served as a de facto campaign event. It’s the campaign’s largest one-day haul yet. With a long eight-month campaign ahead, the Biden team has been stockpiling a war chest as Trump fought contested primaries (not to mention legal battles).
79: The Portuguese center-right Democratic Alliance took 79 seats in Sunday's elections, ousting the incumbent socialist party but falling well short of the 115 seats it would need for a majority government. The party's leader, however, swore he would not work with the far-right Chega party, which surged in the polls, to establish a majority.
73.93: On Friday, Irish voters rejected proposed constitutional changes concerning the concept of family and care in a nationwide referendum. The first proposal would have recognized “family” as a couple without regard to their sex, while the second aimed to strip reference to the role of women in the home. Well over half, some 67.7% of Irish voters, opposed the first, while 73.93% said no to the second.
3: Progress in Libya’s long conflict may soon be at hand: On Sunday, three leaders agreed on the need to form a new unified government to supervise the country’s long-delayed elections. Elections were due in December 2021, but fell apart owing to disputes over who was eligible to run.On International Women’s Day, Ireland amends sexism in its constitution
Just in time for International Women’s Day, the Republic of Ireland will vote today on whether to change a clause in its constitution that says "the State shall ... endeavor to ensure that mothers shall not be obliged by economic necessity to engage in labor to the neglect of their duties in the home."
In addition to cutting the antiquated language, the country is considering replacing it with a clause about supporting caregivers of any gender and expanding the definition of family to include unmarried couples and single parents.
Supporters say the proposition is the next step for the traditionally Catholic country after it became the first in the world to vote for same-sex marriage in 2015 and overturned its constitutional ban on abortion in 2018.
Critics argue that a constitutional amendment is no substitute for structural changes needed to value unpaid care work, tackle gender inequality in the labor market, and drive deep societal shifts that lead to more male participation in caregiving and housework.
The referendum is expected to pass, but this is not the first time the holiday has coincided with a groundbreaking moment in a country’s history.
International Women’s Day originated in New York City in 1909, when the socialist and suffragist women’s movements met for a joint demonstration. The struggle of working-class women to form trade unions and the upper-class fight for women’s franchises had rarely intersected before. The movement spread to Europe, where it continued to be celebrated through World War I, even as other social movements fizzled.
The movement sparked the Russian Revolution. On March 8, 1917, Russian feminist Alexandra Kollontai brought the holiday to Czarist Russia by calling for a massive demonstration over peace and bread shortages. The protests spread from factory to factory until they sparked the Russian Revolution and led to the abdication of Czar Nicholas II.
Vladimir Lenin declared that International Women’s Day would forever be celebrated on March 8. The start of the Cold War confined it to Communist countries, and the West largely denounced it until the United Nations recognized it as International Women’s Day in 1975.
Northern Ireland names first Sinn Fein leader
After two long years, Northern Ireland once again has a functioning government – and in a historic move, it has named Michelle O’Neill as the first-ever First Minister from Sinn Fein. The party, which served as the political wing of the Irish Republican Army, won a majority of seats in the 2022 election.
The country’s unique “Good Friday Agreement” necessitates that unionists and nationalists share power, but that cooperation collapsed in 2022 over a dispute about post-Brexit trade rules with the EU. O’Neill will share power with Deputy Minister Emma Little-Pengelly, from the Democratic Unionist Party, which had dominated Northern Ireland’s politics for decades.
While the 47-year-old O’Neill favors the unity of the two Irelands, she downplayed that in the days leading to her appointment and pledged to continue “the work of reconciliation between all our people.” O’Neill’s father was imprisoned for IRA membership before transitioning to politics, but O’Neill herself is not an anti-monarchist, notably attending both Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral and the coronation of King Charles III last year.
Her government also has more pressing concerns: health care and cost-of-living issues. Nevertheless, O’Neill’s appointment gives hope to those who would like to one day see the two Irelands united.
Hard Numbers: Dog title temporarily revoked, Young Irish adults live with parents, Russian air travelers live in fear, Houthi strikes crush cargo
⅔: Ireland is suffering from a serious housing crisis. Rents are so high that some two-thirds of Irish young adults live with their parents, which is nearly 20 points higher than the EU average. Experts blame a failure to invest in social housing and an overreliance on market solutions, which created incentives for developers to build luxury or short-term rental properties rather than lower or middle-income housing.
8: Russia’s commercial airline industry is hitting some serious turbulence. In the first eight days of December, according to a new report, Russian civilian airliners suffered at least eight separate serious mechanical failures. The rash of incidents is part of a wider problem: Western sanctions preventing the delivery of parts and service to Western-made aircraft in Russia are causing Russia’s commercial fleets to fall apart,
65: Houthi airstrikes on commercial ships navigating the Red Sea have caused cargo volumes through that waterway to fall 65% from normal levels. On Tuesday, even after two rounds of US-led airstrikes on Houthi targets, a Houthi missile struck a Greek-owned ship off the Yemeni coast. The Houthis say they’ll stop when there’s a cease-fire in Gaza, a call echoed by Qatar’s prime minister on Tuesday at Davos. (See our explainer on why Qatar is a small country with big influence these days.)Hard Numbers: Russian drones, Malagasy election, Ireland's clashes, China's illnesses, breakaway iceberg
75: Russia launched its biggest-ever drone attack on Kyiv on Saturday, firing 75 Iranian-made Shahed drones at the Ukrainian capital, and all but one were shot down. President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the attack, noting that it came on the commemoration of the 1932-1933 Holodomor famine, engineered by Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin, which killed several million Ukrainians.
58.9: Madagascar’s incumbent President Andry Rajoelina is poised for a new term in office after garnering 58.9% of the vote in last week’s elections. Only 46% of voters cast a ballot after 10 of 12 rival parties refused to campaign and called for a boycott. They now refuse to recognize the results, which have to be formally validated by the country’s constitutional court.
34: Thirty-four people have been arrested in Dublin, Ireland, following clashes between right-wing protesters and police that saw widespread looting and rioting. The violence erupted after a man, who was falsely described as a foreign national, was taken into custody following last Thursday's stabbing of three schoolchildren outside a primary school.
13,000: Videos of Chinese hospitals overflowing with parents and children have circulated on social media. Beijing Children’s Hospital was admitting 7,000 patients daily as of late last week, and the largest pediatric hospital in Tianjin broke a record on Saturday, receiving more than 13,000 children. China told the World Health Organization the surge is due to the relaxing of COVID-19 restrictions and an increase in COVID-19, influenza, mycoplasma pneumoniae, and respiratory syncytial virus, not a novel virus.
1,500: One of the world’s largest icebergs is drifting beyond Antarctic waters after being grounded for more than three decades, according to the British Antarctic Survey. The iceberg is three times as large as New York City and over twice as big as Greater London, measuring around 1,500 square miles.Current world leaders who are openly LGBTQ+
As of June 2023, it's still rare for a head of government to be openly LGBTQ+. Here are the four leaders currently in office or elected to the top job.
Edgars Rinkēvičs
Edgars Rinkēvičs.
NATO
Country: Latvia
Position: President-elect
Edgars Rinkēvičs was the first government official to come out in Latvia, tweeting in 2014, "I proudly announce I am gay ... Good luck all of you." When he takes office in July, he will be the first openly gay president in the Baltic nations.
Xavier Bettel
Xavier Bettel
Country: Luxembourg
Position: Prime Minister
Xavier Bettel, Luxembourg's PM since 2013, has said, “Being gay is not a choice, but not accepting it is a choice. Homophobia is a choice, and we have to fight against it!” He married his civil partner in 2015, becoming the first serving leader in the European Union to wed someone of the same sex.
Leo Varadkar
Leo Varadkar
Country: Ireland
Position: Taoiseach (Prime Minister)
Leo Varadkar took office in June 2017, two years after he came out as gay prior to Ireland's referendum legalizing same-sex marriage. He is the first openly gay Irish PM. “I feel privileged to be gay in Ireland. We should not forget that only 30 of the 190 countries in the world have marriage equality. In 70 countries, it’s still criminalized,” says Varadkhar.
Ana Brnabić
Ana Brnabić
Country: Serbia
Position: Prime Minister
When Ana Brnabić took office in June 2017, she became not only Serbia's first gay prime minister but also its first female PM. “Serbia is changing and changing fast, and if you will, I am part of that change, but I do not want to be branded ‘Serbia’s gay PM’. The message we need to send is about competence, professionalism, and trustworthiness,” Brnabić said.
US intel leak shows rising risk of NATO-Russia conflict
Are China's Taiwan war games losing their intimidation power?
No, I wouldn't say that. I would say that the response to a President Tsai meeting with Kevin McCarthy in California where no real news was made as opposed to a trip to Taipei is not as provocative, and so, therefore, China's response is not as provocative, and that was true both militarily, diplomatically, and economically in terms of very limited sanctions. And I think they're hitting the Reagan Library and the Hudson Institute, not a big deal. In other words, not meant to overly escalate, and I think that's good news on both sides, and what's otherwise not a very functional relationship politically right now.
What is the fallout from the Pentagon Intelligence leak?
Well, there's clearly going to be a level of concern on the Ukrainians that they're not as robust militarily, and that there's not as much support for what they can accomplish in their counter offensive as people might think. That's problematic because they'll put more pressure on them to engage diplomatically with the Russians earlier than perhaps they would like, or then Zelensky would be politically prepared to. The thing that I took away from this leak that was most concerning is how close a UK spy plane was to being shot down by the Russians in the Black Sea. Again, we have to understand that this is an environment where Russia is treated as a rogue state run by a war criminal by the United States and by all of NATO. That's a very dangerous place to be. This is a nuclear power with lots of massive military capabilities fighting an active war. And the West isn't in a direct war with them, but they're doing the intel. They're training the troops. They're providing the weapons, and there's lots of ways this could go very, very badly. We need to recognize that we are closer to that kind of a problem than we might otherwise think.
The Good Friday Agreements turned 25 this week. Is Brexit making it harder to achieve peace in Northern Ireland?
Well, I think it was when Brexit was first put into place and because people like Boris Johnson were playing politics around whether or not there would be a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. That has largely been resolved by Rishi Sunak with the EU. And clearly, an enormous amount has been accomplished over the last 25 years. Living in Ireland and Northern Ireland is nothing like it was during the so-called Time of Troubles. And that's a good thing, and I'm glad that we can celebrate that anniversary as opposed to, for example, the anniversary of the war in Iraq, which was devastating for pretty much everyone involved.
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Macron's China visit hasn't moved Xi on Ukraine
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Tabiano Castello, Italy.
What's the fallout from President Macron's visit to China?
That remains to be seen. There is still no sign, really, of him managing to move Xi Jinping on the issue of Russia's aggression against Ukraine. President Xi has not yet made that telephone call to President Zelensky that he said he was going to do. He says he's going to do it at some point in time. But whether some point in time is tomorrow or one year from now is left open, so remains to be seen.
What are the lessons of the Good Friday Agreement 25 years ago?
Well, President Biden now goes to Belfast to be part of the celebrations for the Good Friday Agreement. That's good. I think what we can learn from that is both to understand that conflicts of these sorts have very deep historical roots, and secondly, that it takes time to overcome. There is no violence in Northern Ireland. Brexit has created new problems, but there are still sectarian tensions. But peace agreements of this sort, they should be celebrated, but they require maintenance work over time as well in order to really work.
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