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A woman walks past the peace wall that separates neighborhoods of Belfast, United Kingdom, on September 30, 2019.
Twenty years since the IRA put down its guns: What’s changed in Northern Ireland?
Twenty years ago, the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) agreed to lay down its weapons and end the armed campaign to achieve a united Ireland free of British rule. The move came 11 years after an initial ceasefire in Northern Ireland, and seven years after the Good Friday Agreement that brought an end to the Troubles, a decades-long conflict between Irish nationalists and supporters of the union with Great Britain, which killed roughly 3,600 people.
“Dozens, if not hundreds, of people are alive today that perhaps wouldn’t be if this violence had continued,” former US special envoy to Northern Ireland Mitchell Reiss told GZERO.
As other militant groups around the world explore or proceed with disarmament – such as the Kurdish PKK in Turkey or, perhaps one day, Hezbollah in Lebanon – the peace that has held in Northern Ireland ever since the IRA’s disarmament shows what can be achieved if paramilitary groups drop their weapons. However, it also offers a cautionary tale: peace is one thing, but harmony is another.
So how has Northern Ireland fared over the past two decades?
First, the good news. The bloodshed has stopped, even as the PIRA didn’t achieve its goal of uniting the island of Ireland – Northern Ireland remains part of the United Kingdom. While there are regular displays of pride by nationalists, and unionists alike, these events are relatively peaceful. Gone are the car bombings, killings, and abductions that ignited fear across the country throughout the 1970s and 1980s.
What’s happened to the IRA? The Provisional IRA has officially demilitarized and pledged to pursue its aims peacefully, with the help of nationalist political parties like Sinn Fein.
While police believe parts of the armed grouping still exist, their influence, along with that of several other offshoot nationalist paramilitary groups, is limited. They may oppose the “promise of the Good Friday Agreement,” says Reiss, but “the good news is that they are generally small in number. They are marginalized.”
What the disarmament hasn’t achieved. First, Northern Irish society remains deeply divided. If you take a walk down the Shankhill Road in Belfast, you’ll see shopfronts lined with unionist memorabilia and odes to the late Queen. Meanwhile Falls Road, only a few hundred yards away, is still festooned with the Irish tricolor and monuments to slain nationalist fighters. Police still shut off access between the two roads at night as a precaution.
Secondly, while the IRA put down its weapons, the opposing Protestant paramilitary groups – like Ulster Defence Association and the Ulster Volunteer Force – never had to do the same.. Though their influence isn’t as widespread as it was during the height of the Troubles, they continue to function as criminal gangs, exerting a corrosive effect of their own on Northern Irish society.
“For the last eight years, I’ve been talking to these [Protestant paramilitaries],” says Reiss “trying to see if we can achieve the same goal with them that we did with the IRA, that they could put weapons beyond use and commit to a purely political and peaceful way forward.”
Lastly there’s the continued dysfunction of the Northern Irish government. Under the GFA, there has to be a power-sharing agreement between the nationalists and unionists for the Northern Irish Assembly to function. However, the two sides have regularly failed to form a government, with impasses often lasting years.
None of this changes the significance of the achievement. If the number of people killed during the Troubles was projected proportionally onto the United States, the numbers would be akin to the American Civil War, notes Reiss, underlining the hostilities between the nationalist and unionist factions of Northern Ireland, and thus the challenge in achieving peace.
“Is it better than it was? Absolutely. Is progress continuing to be made? Absolutely. Do we need to do more? Absolutely,” says Reiss. “But Northern Ireland is fundamentally transformed from the way it was 20 years ago.”
Taoiseach Micheal Martin visits President Donald Trump at the White House on March 12, 2025.
Trade war update: Canada and EU hit back at Trump
The tits and tats are getting bigger as the US’s various trade wars escalate.
Canada hits back. Ottawa on Tuesday announced a fresh 25% percent tariff on $20 billion worth of annual imports of US metals, computer monitors and servers, sports equipment, and other items. The move came just hours after Trump imposed a 25% duty on all US steel and aluminum imports.
Canada is the largest foreign steel supplier to the US, sending 99% of its exports to Uncle Sam. The White House has said its tariffs on Canada – and those set to come into effect on Mexico in April – are meant to force the two US neighbors to beef up border security.
The EU cocks the hammer too. In April, the Union will raise tariffs on nearly $30 billion in annual imports of US products, including beef, poultry, bourbon, soybeans, motorcycles, peanut butter, and jeans. That seemingly random list aims primarily at industries in GOP-controlled states.
The EU, which made the move in response to the Trump metals tariffs, said it was “open to compromise.” The $1.5 trillion US-EU trade relationship is the world’s largest.
What does Trump want from Europe? The US runs trade deficits with Europe, which Trump has called an “atrocity.” But European officials say they’ve struggled to learn more.
A White House memo in February highlighted EU restrictions on American shellfish and cars. And on Wednesday, Trump blasted Ireland’s low corporate tax rates, which have lured US firms, particularly in pharma, to register themselves in the country.
“I have great respect for Ireland,” Trump said at an Oval Office meeting Wednesday with Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin, “but the United States shouldn’t have let it happen.”- How Europe might respond to Trump's tariffs - GZERO Media ›
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President-elect Donald Trump attends the America First Policy Institute gala at Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, on Nov. 14, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Trump talks tough tariffs, Opposition wins in Uruguay, DHL plane crashes in Lithuania, Israeli drone targeted journalists, Ireland asylum claims spike
25: President-elect Donald Trump took aim at Canada and Mexico via Truth Social on Monday, posting about his plan to charge the countries — currently America’s No. 1 & No. 2 trading partners, — a whopping 25% tariff on all products entering the US. The tariff would be enacted on Jan. 20, 2025, Trump said, and would “remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” He then posted that he would charge China, where the precursor chemicals to fentanyl are made, “an additional 10% tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America.”
49: Uruguay’s left-wing opposition leader Yamandú Orsi won the small South American country’s presidential election with 49% of the vote in a neck-and-neck runoff contest on Sunday. It was yet another rebuke of an incumbent party — the theme of many global elections this year — but not to worry: Uruguay is remarkably stable, and Orsi is a moderate with no radical plans.
1: One crew member died on Monday when a DHL cargo flight crashed during its attempted landing in Vilnius, Lithuania, with surveillance video showing a huge ball of flames as the plane went down. Lithuanian officials said they could not rule out whether Russia played a role in the crash, following months of suspicions over Moscow’s possible role in other cases of sabotage against the German shipping giant. Germany, meanwhile, is sending investigators to Vilnius to aid with the probe.
3: Human Rights Watch has determined that an Israeli drone strike that killed three journalists in Lebanon last month was most likely a deliberate attack on civilians, which is a war crime. More than 3,500 people in Lebanon have died amid Israel’s invasion, and more than 1 million have been displaced from their homes in the 5.3-million-strong country.
300: Asylum applications in Ireland have spiked 300% so far this year – with a fourfold increase from Nigeria – compared to last. The rise has been driven by tougher immigration stances in the UK, including a quixotic plan to house asylum-seekers in Rwanda. The uptick is becoming a political issue in Ireland, with voters increasingly concerned by the impact of increased migration on scarce housing.FILE PHOTO: In the photos taken on January 31, 2024, Ukrainian soldiers are deployed in the middle of the conflict with Russia. Ukrainian Intelligence has stated that Russian forces "have already made use" of some missiles delivered to the country by North Korea as part of the invasion and has stressed that there is "cooperation between the two regimes" at a military and weapons.
Hard Numbers: North Koreans killed in Russia, Ireland approaches crucial vote, Pakistan locks down over Khan, Bitcoin to the moon!
500: Ukrainian media reported Sunday that a strike on North Korean forces operating in the Kursk region of Russia killed at least 500 troops, though Pyongyang has not (and probably won’t) confirm the figures. If true, it would be the first major casualty incident for the Korean People’s Army while fighting Ukraine, and the sheer number of deaths at once may be difficult for Pyongyang to explain at home.
20: The left-leaning Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein is polling at 20% ahead of elections on the Emerald Isle on Friday, neck-and-neck with the ruling Fine Gael party at 22%. Sinn Fein looks likely to be able to block Fine Gael and its coalition partner from forming a majority government, but it would need to majorly outperform polling to take charge of the government itself as other parties have sworn not to cooperate.
150: Pakistan’s government on Sunday blocked expressways leading into the capital, Islamabad, shut down cell phone and internet service, and placed shipping containers across major thoroughfares amid mass protests calling for the release of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The ex-cricket-star-turned-politician is facing 150 criminal charges (all of which he denies) and has been serving a three-year prison sentence since last year.
100,000: The cryptocurrency known as Bitcoin reached a value of $100,000 per token on Friday, a record high fueled by the expectation of a friendlier environment for crypto under the incoming Trump administration. Ten years ago, it was trading for about $350.File Photo: Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Simon Harris speaks to reporters after meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House in Washington, U.S., October 9, 2024.
Ireland preps for an election sprint
Thankfully, not every election campaign lasts for two years. On Tuesday, Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris said he will call a parliamentary election later this week, and the vote will likely be held on or about Nov. 29.
The timing comes as no surprise. Last month, Harris’ government gave voters a package of tax cuts and new spending that totals more than 10 billion euros, and Fine Gael, his center-right party, is now polling in first place. It’s also important that Fianna Fail, his coalition partner, is now polling in second place.
When Irish voters have gone to the polls in recent years, the popularity of Sinn Fein, Ireland’s main opposition and a nationalist party with historic ties to the Irish Republican Army, a terrorist group, has been the focus of poll and election analysis. For now, Sinn Fein is polling in third place, but election campaigns can quickly shake up the political dynamic. In recent years, Sinn Fein’s leadership has played down the issue of reunification with Northern Ireland, part of the United Kingdom, to focus its message instead on economic and healthcare issues.
A laptop keyboard and Google logo displayed on a phone screen are seen in this illustration photo taken in Krakow, Poland on September 9, 2024.
Ireland sniffs around Google’s AI models
Ireland’s data privacy authority has opened an inquiry into Google’s artificial intelligence practices. The country’s Data Protection Commission has become an important data watchdog in the European Union as many of the world’s top tech companies have set up their European operations in Ireland. The DPC is specifically investigating whether Google’s Pathways Language Model 2, or PaLM 2, protected user privacy in accordance with Europe’s General Data Protection Regulation.
PaLM 2 is a foundational model developed by Google AI that’s largely been succeeded by its Gemini model, which launched in December 2023.
Under the GDPR, companies are required to carry out “data protection impact assessments” any time they develop a project that could be considered “high-risk” to citizens’ personal information. The Irish data regulator will look into whether Google improperly skipped this step. GDPR violations are no joke: If found liable, Google could be forced to cough up 4% of their global annual revenue. Google told reporters that it takes its obligations under GDPR seriously and will work with the DPC to answer their questions.
UK Prime Minister Sunak's push for early election will hardly boost his chances
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Halmstad, Sweden.
Does the decision by Norway, Ireland, and Spain to recognize Palestine as an independent state further increase the isolation of Israel?
Not necessarily, but it does further reinforce the determination that is there throughout the international community, I would say, that it's only a two-state solution that over time, can bring peace and stability to the troubled region of the Middle East. In that sense, of course, Prime Minister Netanyahu and his resistance to move towards a two-state solution is increasingly isolated in the global community. And this particular decision is a further sign of that.
Does the decision by the UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, to call an early election increases his possibility to retain his position at Downing Street?
Hardly likely, I would say. There are different theories why he decided to do the gamble. And though, it’s early for an election, it's not quite certain it would have been better to, it could have been equally bad to wait. So, he probably said, “Let's just get over with it.” But the Conservatives are 20% behind in opinion polls. It might not be that bad when it comes to the election. Election campaigns tend to have the effect of changing these particular figures, slightly. But the likelihood of, him still being prime minister of the United Kingdom by the end of July, that is, I have to say, very slim.
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Newly elected Prime Minister Simon Harris leaves the Dail, in Dublin, following the vote by Irish parliamentarians to elect him, making him the youngest taoiseach in Ireland's history.
Who is Ireland’s new prime minister, Simon Harris?
The Emerald Isle has a new leader. Ireland’s parliament on Tuesday elected Simon Harris as the country’s next taoiseach (prime minister) after Leo Varadkar unexpectedly announced his resignation last month.
Harris, 37, is Ireland’s youngest-ever taoiseach. He ran unopposed to replace Varadkar as leader of the center-right Fine Gael Party, which is in a coalition government with Fianna Fáil and the Green Party. Harris served as higher education minister in Varadkar’s government. He was also Ireland’s health minister when it voted to legalize abortion — a move he strongly supported — and at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which boosted his national profile.
What’s on his agenda? Harris faces challenges ranging from a housing crisis to beleaguered health services. He pledged to prioritize housing in a speech on Tuesday.
“Today, I recommit to moving mountains to help build more homes,” Harris said, vowing to “build a new social contract.”
An election looms. The clock is ticking for Harris, given that a general election must be held by March 2025. “Time is short, and there is lots to do,” Harris said Tuesday.
His coalition also faces a challenge from the nationalist, left-wing Sinn Fein Party.
Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Fein’s leader, portrayed Harris as a continuation of the status quo. “Here we go again — pass the parcel with the keys to the taoiseach’s office one more time,” she said.
A recent opinion poll showed Sinn Fein leading Fine Gael, 26% to 21%. Both parties were down a point from the previous poll, which suggests Harris has his work cut out for him.