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Ahmed Rashid outlines the new political reality in Afghanistan
The Taliban regime is struggling to govern Afghanistan. The country faces potential famine and economic hardship, with a long winter ahead. Many Afghans feel desperate and are likely to flee as refugees or risk their lives in widespread protests. What can we expect to see from the Taliban under these conditions?
Few people know more about the Taliban than journalist and author Ahmed Rashid, who wrote the book on the group — literally. In the months after 9/11, his critically acclaimed 2000 study, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil & Fundamentalism in Central Asia, became a go-to reference as the US geared up to invade Afghanistan and knock the militant group from power. Rashid spoke with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World about the so-called “Taliban 2.0.” How much has the group changed since the days of soccer-stadium executions, television bans, and blowing up world heritage sites?
Watch the GZERO World episode: Taliban 2.0: Afghanistan on the Brink (US AWOL)
How will the Taliban handle ISIS and other terrorist groups?
Though the Taliban is now in control of Afghanistan, terrorist groups still operate freely throughout the country. Among them is ISIS-Khorasan (or ISIS-K), which was created in 2015 by disaffected members of the Taliban who pushed for a more hardline approach to Islam.
Journalist and author Ahmed Rashid wonders whether the Taliban is likely to stop these groups, most of whom previously worked alongside the Taliban to oppose their common enemy, the United States. “What do the Taliban do with these people? Even if they would be willing to wrap them up, what do they do? Do they kill them? Do they put them in jail?” he pointed out in an interview with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Taliban 2.0: Afghanistan on the Brink (US AWOL)
Has the Taliban changed since the 1990’s?
The Taliban regained total control of Afghanistan on August 30, 2021, when the US withdrew after twenty years of war. But the militant group claims to have reformed, and has even tried to show a softer side, perhaps to contrast the barbaric scenes from the last time they were in control from 1996 until 2001.
In the 1990s, women couldn't work, attend school, or leave their homes without a male guardian. They were required to wear burqas in public. Today, the Taliban claims they will respect women’s rights within the confines of their interpretation of Islam. They have also promised to uphold press freedom and adapt to a new, more modern country.
But is “Taliban 2.0” anything more than a clever PR stunt? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer explains why people are skeptical and expect more of the same human rights abuses and repression from the Taliban the world witnessed decades ago.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Taliban 2.0: Afghanistan on the Brink (US AWOL)
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Will any countries recognize the Taliban?
No country is in a big hurry to recognize the Taliban, explains journalist Ahmed Rashid, even those that likely will do so in the future: Pakistan, China, and Russia. “They understand that if they recognize the Taliban, it's going to lead to a major division in the international community,” he told Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Aligning with the broader international community on the recognition process has more pros than cons for all involved, he explained.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Taliban 2.0: Afghanistan on the Brink (US AWOL)
The Taliban has only made “cosmetic changes” since the 1990s, says author Ahmed Rashid
The Taliban may have allowed “cosmetic changes” - like allowing younger fighters to take photos with iPhones – but their governing style hasn’t truly changed, renowned author Ahmed Rashid told Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. In fact, not much about the group has actually reformed since he wrote his groundbreaking book, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia.
“We thought for a long time that the Taliban would be educating and training their younger generation to become bureaucrats and handlers of civil society, but we were wrong,” he said. In fact, the moderate faction of the Taliban have been losing out to the hardliners, which includes members of the Haqqani network, a US-designated terrorist organization.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Taliban 2.0: Afghanistan on the Brink (US AWOL)
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- The Graphic Truth: Opium keeps the Taliban going - GZERO Media ›
Taliban 2.0: Afghanistan on the Brink (US AWOL)
Few people know more about the Taliban than journalist and author Ahmed Rashid, who wrote the book on the group — literally.
In the months after 9/11, his critically acclaimed 2000 study Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil & Fundamentalism in Central Asia became a go-to reference as the US geared up to invade Afghanistan and knock the militant group from power.
Now, twenty years later, with the US out of Afghanistan and the Taliban back in charge, Ian Bremmer sat down with Rashid to learn more about the Taliban today in a GZERO World interview.
How much has the group changed since the days of soccer-stadium executions, television bans, and blowing up world heritage sites? How should the rest of the world deal with them?
Don’t believe the “Taliban 2.0” hype. Rashid says that despite Taliban pledges to moderate their treatment of women, minority groups, and the press, hardliners in the movement are winning out right now. And there’s little chance of the Taliban stamping out other terrorist groups who helped them fight the Americans all these years.
But the deepening humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan means the West has to engage somehow. “It’s important that the West differentiate between recognition, which should not be on the cards for the time being,” he says ”and preventing millions of Afghans from starving to death.” For Rashid that means global donors should step up with money for humanitarian and food relief measures administered through the UN.
If not, a huge new refugee crisis could be brewing. And the timing couldn’t be worse. Afghanistan’s neighbors like Pakistan and Iran are ill-equipped to handle fresh migrant flows, Rashid says, and more distant destinations like the EU are politically hostile to refugees these days.
The US isn’t only gone, it’s AWOL. Amid all of this, Rashid warns, the US doesn’t seem to have a strategy.
- Would you recognize the Taliban? - GZERO Media ›
- The Graphic Truth: How opium kept the Taliban going - GZERO Media ›
- What does a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan actually mean ... ›
- The Taliban are super rich. Is it enough to run a country? - GZERO ... ›
- The Graphic Truth: Opium keeps the Taliban going - GZERO Media ›
Podcast: Don’t believe the “Taliban 2.0” hype, cautions journalist Ahmed Rashid
Listen: With the US gone and the Taliban back in control, Afghanistan faces a long winter. Mounting food insecurity and a crumbling economy have left many Afghans feeling abandoned. The international community could help solve this humanitarian crisis, but can they trust the Taliban?
Ian Bremmer sat down with journalist and author Ahmed Rashid to learn more about the Taliban today. Few people know more about the Taliban than Rashid, who wrote the book on the group — literally. In the months after 9/11, his critically acclaimed 2000 study Taliban became a go-to reference as the US geared up to invade Afghanistan and knock the militant group from power. Twenty years later, how much has the group changed since the days of soccer-stadium executions, television bans, and blowing up world heritage sites?
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.- The Taliban may crack down harder if Afghan people protest, warns ... ›
- Would you recognize the Taliban? - GZERO Media ›
- What does a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan actually mean ... ›
- The Graphic Truth: How opium kept the Taliban going - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: How the US underestimated the Taliban - and who's paying for it one year later - GZERO Media ›
The Taliban may crack down harder if Afghan people protest, warns journalist Ahmed Rashid
Will the Taliban be able to maintain control over the entire country of Afghanistan if the ongoing hunger and economic crisis worsens?
Civil disobedience is likely to expand from women's protests to widespread unrest, said journalist Ahmed Rashid, especially if humanitarian aid only reaches the hands of Taliban loyalists and the country’s urban elites.
“It's going to be much more easy for the opposition to organize unrest in the cities demanding food and services," said Rashid, author of Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil & Fundamentalism in Central Asia.
"The Taliban are going to use probably harsher and harsher methods to deal with that, and that, of course, will create its own snowballing crisis.”
Rashid spoke during an interview with Ian Bremmer for GZERO World.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Taliban 2.0: Afghanistan on the Brink (US AWOL)