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The Graphic Truth: Who's refusing the COVID vaccine?
Many countries with broad access to COVID shots are grappling with a major problem: despite 18 months of death and destruction, many people still aren't willing to roll up their sleeves. This trend is most pronounced in Russia — despite developing its very own Sputnik V vaccine and using it as a diplomatic tool — and in the US, which has the second highest percentage of vaccine skeptics, in large part because of partisan politics. We take a look at the countries with the highest percentage of people uncertain or unwilling to get the shot to date, as well as their respective (partial) vaccination rates.
Will Joe Manchin thwart Biden's spending? FDA credibility hit
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, shares insights on US politics:
What does the disappointing jobs number mean for the Democrats' agenda?
Well, payroll employment in August came in well under expectations with under 300,000 jobs created. This is in contrast to the last several months, which really saw a torrid pace of job creation as the US started to recover from the pandemic and restrictions were lifted. With new mask mandates and the Delta variant spreading, Americans are slowing down their pace of activity and slowing down spending, which means you could see more economic volatility in the next couple of months. At the same time, Democrats are attempting to find consensus around a major new spending initiative, which would spend up to $3.5 half trillion over the next 10 years. This initiative isn't really about coronavirus pandemic recovery, or even stimulus, it's about expanding the size and scope of government for increased transfer payments and increased subsidies for education services and healthcare and also, of course, on infrastructure. The slowing jobs growth creates more fiscal space for Democrats to borrow more, and that's a real sticking point because you have moderates like Senator Joe Manchin from West Virginia, who says the US is already at their borrowing limit and shouldn't be borrowing more to spend money. This is going to be the major storyline in Washington for the next several months because it's also probably going to be the last big initiative of the Biden administration before the midterm elections next year.
Two top FDA vaccine regulators are about to leave this fall. How will this influence the vaccine rollout?
Well, the FDA has really struggled over the last year with vaccines and with the coronavirus pandemic. There's been mistakes and missteps along the way between the FDA and the Center for Disease Control, both around messaging, the science around the pandemic, and on things like testing kits, where there's been major screw-ups by the federal government. The two top vaccine regulators at the FDA announced they're going to leave, supposedly, according to some reports, because they felt like they were under political pressure to approve booster shots. The White House has said they plan on doing booster shots. They've already authorized them for people who have underlying conditions that make them more vulnerable. These two regulators leaving is just another bump in the road for the FDA. It's going to take a long time for the American health agencies to recover their credibility
Why CIA director Bill Burns met with the Taliban
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on the CIA director's secret meeting with the leader of the Taliban, the G7 emergency meeting on Afghanistan, and the future of vaccine mandates following the FDA's approval of Pfizer's COVID vaccine.
CIA director Bill Burns held a secret meeting with the leader of the Taliban. How will it impact the ongoing evacuations?
Well, at the very least, you have to think that America's top priority, ensuring that all Americans get out of Afghanistan, given that the US controls nothing on the ground but Kabul Airport, will be facilitated. I would think that that was the reason for him to be there, absolute top priority. That has been successful. If it was a failure, we would've heard something about it by now, and the situation on the ground would be quite different. That is very different though than what happens after August 31st, and whether or not all of the Afghan nationals working with the Americans and in physical danger are going to be let out. So far, I haven't heard that from the Taliban. Certainly that will be a big piece of the negotiations. But better that he's there than not.
What do you expect to come from the G7 emergency meeting on Afghanistan on Tuesday?
Well, this is interesting because the Brits, who are chairing the G7 this year, really want to ensure that everyone gets out, and that means all the Afghans that have been working with the coalition forces. That means you have the ability to extend beyond August 31st, which President Biden has certainly not said he's been able to do and the Taliban forces have not said they'd agree to. We'll see where it goes. This is going to be a much more contentious G7 than what we saw in Cornwall a couple of months ago, and it'll be very interesting to see whether we have anything like the kind of statements from the Germans, from the French, the Brits criticizing the Biden administration after today's meeting that we did over the last week on Afghanistan. A lot of damage control will be done by President Biden in today's summit.
With FDA approval, are vaccine mandates imminent?
They're happening, and they will ramp up. There are a lot of companies that are going to feel much more comfortable requiring vaccines now that they've been fully approved. Pfizer Comirnaty, the name of their vaccine now, has been approved by the FDA. I also think that a lot of skeptics in the United States will get more comfortable because this was an emergency authorization before, and now it is a fully-approved vaccination the way others that we take, that our children take, have been for decades and decades. I'm hoping that it means good things for the United States in relatively short order. Certainly the numbers of vaccinations over the last couple days, also driven by Delta variant, also going up.
Biden's speech on Afghanistan ignores serious failures; Afghan refugee crisis
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on President Biden's Afghanistan speech, the Afghan refugee crisis that will follow the Taliban takeover, and booster shots in the US.
What did you think of President Biden's speech on the Afghan withdrawal?
Two things. One, I thought he made a very compelling case for why the United States needed to leave when we did. The reduction in US troops that already happened under Trump, the strengthening of the Taliban, the difficulty of any expansion, I get all of that, but it was, listening to it as if the last 72 hours hadn't happened. He said that, "this is on me, the buck stops with me," but didn't talk really about any of the serious failures and how they could have occurred on the ground in Afghanistan. And there's a lot to answer for there. So I certainly don't give high marks to the speech, if I'm being honest with you. I'm doing my best.
Will the Taliban takeover lead to a refugee crisis?
Yes, it will. We've got some two and a half million Afghan refugees right now, though millions more returned after the Taliban were removed from Afghanistan, from power. Certainly, right now you're seeing I think 30,000 to 50,000 refugees a day, but that is only going to extend as the Taliban start strengthening their grip on power across the country. It's mostly going to be in the region. So it's Pakistan, and it's Iran for the Hazaras, for example. But over time, towards Europe, and that means Turkey, is the country that's going to have a lot of leverage with the Europeans on whether they decide to maintain those refugee flows or try to keep the borders open, let them go into Europe.
With only about 50% of Americans fully vaccinated will booster shots complicate getting the unvaccinated, vaccinated?
Yeah, I think that's probably true because if it's only eight months, a lot of people that are unvaccinated are saying, "Well, one more reason to be skeptical. Doesn't really work. They told me it'd be fine." Again, the science is new, and we're learning about this disease more and more every day. You only have data on how well the vaccines work over time as time passes, because it's the first time anyone's been vaccinated with this stuff. The bigger challenge I see it is that Americans are going to be vaccinating the entire population with boosters before much of the world has gotten a single shot, and that puts the US directly at odds with those governments and with the World Health Organization. This wouldn't be so hard for an America First presidency, but it's a lot harder for Biden who says that we're multilateral and want to work with everybody else.
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Biden expected to announce vaccine mandate for federal workers
Get insights on the latest news in US politics from Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington:
Why can't President Biden order a vaccine mandate for all Americans?
Well, the reason is it's out of his powers. The one of the fundamental challenges in the pandemic is that the federal government has actually been fairly limited in the steps they can take to stop the spread of the virus. So, that's why you've seen President Biden order masks on transit, mass transit, airplanes, and the like. But he can't order masks in workplaces because that's not within his power. That power lies within state governments. State governments and other entities, like employers, can require vaccinations before you come into their buildings, or you come back to school, or you go to work in your office. But the federal government can't do that. What Biden is doing is, allegedly, supposedly going to announce a mandate for federal workers to get vaccinated.
He announced that all healthcare workers at the Veterans administration get vaccinated earlier this week. He could also, in theory, order a vaccine mandate at the military. But the Defense Secretary Austin has suggested he's hesitant to do so until there's full FDA approval of the vaccine. And this is really an ongoing challenge for the president. While he has a lot of ideas about what he wants other people to do, wearing masks and so forth, he can't force them to do it. So, until states pick this up and they probably won't, the vaccine mandates are not going to become a thing and the Delta variant will continue to spread.
Is the Delta variant putting our economy at risk?
The answer is maybe. I think probably the biggest risk to the economy is that people who catch the Delta variant, or people who are scared of catching the Delta variant, don't show up for work. There already are labor shortages across the economy, particularly in the service sector. And if you look around the globe at the supply chains that are heavily integrated into the US economy, Delta variant outbreaks there could mean an increase in shortages of semiconductors or other parts that the US is already short on as the economy roars back to life. Another possible issue is that businesses remain closed because they can't find workers or that parents, don't have child care if their schools close down once again. So, this isn't necessarily going to wreck the US economy or derail the recovery, but it is going to continue to be a drag as long as people are concerned about the spread of the Delta variant.
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COVID vaccine mandates are coming; political instability in Tunisia
Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics this week:
As COVID-19 cases rise, are vaccine mandates coming?
Oh, you just want to get me in more trouble. Yeah, some mandates are coming, but they're not national mandates in the United States. In some cases, you're looking at federal and state employees, in some cases you're looking at lots of individual corporations, universities, and such. I mean I've already been to a number of events where vaccines have been mandated in New York. You've got this Excelsior Pass if you want to go to the Brooklyn Nets games, as I certainly do. You show it off and that gets you in with your vaccine. So I think it's really going to be a decentralized process. But clearly, given Delta variant and the number of people that are getting sick and dying because they're not vaccinated, you're going to see moves towards more mandates, as a consequence.
What's happening in Tunisia and how will it affect the broader region?
Well, massive unlimited employment, lots of corruption from the government and also COVID on top of all of that. And just, remember this was the one country that kind of successfully had a transition during the Arab Spring and didn't revert to authoritarianism. But it's a weak constitution, there's lots of open contestations in terms of what some of these rules really mean, who has power, what the separation of powers look like. And what ended up occurring was the president sacked the prime minister and suspended parliament and used the military in so doing. And it's absolutely unclear he has a constitutional mandate to do so. A lot of people demonstrating saying, this is awesome. A lot of people demonstrating saying this is illegal and a coup. The United States in contact with the president and expressing both concern but also support in this early day. Economically these guys are in a lot of trouble and political stability kind of doesn't exist right now. So look, lots of countries around the world on the back of COVID going to experience much more political instability, Tunisia leading the pack in North Africa right now.
Are you watching the Olympics? What's your favorite event?
I've been watching a little bit of the Olympics, it is in Tokyo. I turned on the NBC coverage late evening the other day. Have to say my favorite event for Summer Olympics has to be the gymnastics. And it's really sad to see the United States unable to pull off the gold to the team that was formerly known as Russia, but has had their name suspended because of all of the doping. And very sad to see Simone Biles who is in a league of her own on planet have to pull out for medical reasons. But still I think the Olympics... I've always been a fan of the Olympics. I like anything that brings the world together and has us root for humanity. That's harder to find these days and any excuse we have, I'm all for it.
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Make the COVID vaccine mandatory
Political division, disinformation and, frankly, stupidity are costing lives. It is not authoritarian to mandate vaccines in America. In fact, there is historical precedent. Making vaccine uptake a requirement will save tens of thousands of lives and maybe many more than that. There really aren't two sides to this argument, there is just the science.
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here. Hope you're having a good week. I wanted to kick it off by talking about vaccines. We all know the recent spike in cases and even hospitalizations that we have experienced in this country over the past couple of weeks. It looks like that's going to continue. It is overwhelmingly because of Delta variant. The hospitalizations and deaths are overwhelmingly because too many people are un-vaccinated.
So, a controversial and unpopular opinion from me, I think we should legally mandate vaccines. Unless you have a legitimate medical reason, let's make it the law. I understand a lot of you are not going to agree with me. I see no one in the government is willing to make this argument right now, Democrat or Republican. But I'm neither, and my mom wouldn't be happy if I was only saying stuff to everybody that you already agree with, so let me try to lay out this argument.
We have tried convincing people. We've tried cajoling, we've tried education campaigns, we've used the media, we've used government, we've used the doctors, we've used the scientists, we've done lotteries, we've done free MetroCards, and still, we're talking about 50% of the country that is fully vaccinated right now. We are awash in vaccines as Africa, a billion plus people, only 1% of the continent has been vaccinated fully. In the United States, people won't take them. We are not where we need to be. Furthermore, we've already been passed in vaccination rates by Canada, by the United Kingdom, and in the next few weeks, we'll be passed by fully vaccinated people in the European Union as well. Despite the fact that the United States has by far the biggest initial advantage in getting these vaccines produced and distributed.
It is political division in this country, it's disinformation, it's stupidity. It's a lot of people saying no and then getting dug in and refusing to listen to facts in an environment that is increasingly tribal. It's us versus them much more so than in any other advanced industrial economy in the world. Big numbers. A majority of people that say that they're not going to get vaccinated at this point in the United States, say that they believe that the vaccine will implant a microchip into your body. This is insanity. This is not something we should be presenting two sides of an argument. There isn't two sides. There's one side and there are a bunch of people that refuse to actually listen to facts.
I think that part of this is because Democrats and Republicans both find it valuable to be sniping at each other on every single issue. Part of it is that a small number of dishonest brokers can make themselves famous and money by pushing conspiracy theories and fake news. And part of it, is the ineffectiveness of social media in taking down this information because it drives more clicks and more eyeballs. The arguments are getting stupider. Mask mandates are getting caught up in all of this as well. I saw Dr. Fauci coming up and saying, "We don't need masks." Initially, because he was worried that there wouldn't be enough for everybody. He lied to the public. Didn't mislead, lied. And he did it for what he thought were good reasons, but undermined the science, undermine his credibility. I personally think that was indefensible by Dr. Fauci at the time. Now I hear him saying, "You're either getting vaccinated or you're going to get the disease, but also that we still need to wear masks." Which is it?
It's increasingly getting impossible to convince people that there is a scientific side of this argument that is correct. The "gotcha" politics have just made people go with their political team, their political side, and increasingly not know who to believe. I have to say, I don't like taking away people's liberties under any circumstances. I support gun rights, I support free speech, I support legalization of marijuana, gay marriage, you name it. But here, we are talking about saving tens of thousands, possibly even hundreds of thousands of additional lives in the United States. We've lost over 600,000 people in large part because we didn't have vaccines.
But going forward, anyone we lose is due to stupidity. It's due to political failure of our government, of our leaders. Not only that, but absent getting vaccines to everybody, millions of livelihoods are going to be affected because you're going to have more social distancing, and you're going to have more calls for a lockdown. You're going to have a stop-start, stop-start economy, which is problematic, particularly for those that are the poorest. Now, I want to be clear. I'm not talking about sending people to jail. A fine would work. It's like buckling up. You do it or you get fined. It's an imposition, yes. It's the government telling you what to do. A lot of people won't feel like it, but most people buckle up as a consequence, even if you think that it's an imposition on your liberties. I do believe that we are so divided right now, that carrots by themselves aren't going to work. We need some level of stick.
Is this authoritarian? Is it one step away from Hitler? I've seen people respond with crazy stuff because of course it's social media, and so that's what you need to do, is respond with crazy stuff. No. No. In fact, vaccine mandates and fines are American history. We've done it before with the smallpox vaccine. It was mandated after an epidemic. And an anti-vaxxer took the US government to court and the Supreme Court ruled on it in 1905. Jacobson vs. Massachusetts and the US Supreme Court, Democratic country, what did it say? It concluded that states can require vaccine via mandate, accompanied by a criminal fine. There you go. This is not something that is a slow step towards authoritarianism.
I also want to say that after 9/11, we took away liberties. We took away a lot of liberties. We spent billions and billions of dollars in the United States. I'm not just talking about the failed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. I, you, can't get on a plane without taking off our shoes, our belt, our outer jacket, get all the metal out of our pockets, a full scan, arms over your head, take a look at us naked! Unless, you want to do a TSA PreCheck that gives all your info to the government, and then you can keep your shoes on. Awesome, right? How about the PATRIOT Act? Huge amounts of intrusion passed after 9/11. Because of national security, we've got all these surveillance laws, and now it's much easier for the government to spy on ordinary Americans by expanding their ability to get phone and email communications, to get your bank and credit card reports. We did that, so that 9/11 wouldn't happen again. We did that to save what we believe would be a few thousand lives in the United States from terrorism.
I understand why we did that at the time, and I understand why the entire country came together to support it, even though I believe that there were excesses, even though I believe that we spent too much, and then we went too far in taking away American liberties at the time. But I understand why we did. Today, this country is so divided that I don't think we could pass a seatbelt law. There's too much stupidity in just the political tribalism.
And so, if no one else is going to say it, I'm going to say it. I believe that saving those tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of lives is worth a vaccine mandate. Let's get it done, and as a consequence, let's save some lives in the United States. Thanks. Sorry to be a little annoying about all of this. We'll see what you have to say. I'll see all of you real soon.
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Bring on the Vaccine Mandate!
Bring on the Vaccine Mandate!
Over the past few weeks, Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations have started to rise yet again in the United States. That looks set to continue, thanks to the Delta variant, which is more transmissible than other variants, and possibly more lethal, too.
Let’s cut to the chase: Unlike before, this is now a pandemic of the unvaccinated. The people being hospitalized and dying are those who haven’t gotten their jabs. These Americans are the reason we’re seeing spikes in states like Mississippi (about 34% vaccinated) while those like Massachusetts (more than 63% vaccinated) aren’t facing the same suffering.
So, here’s my (surely unpopular) opinion: It’s time for the federal government to mandate vaccines. Unless you have a legitimate medical reason to avoid them, you should have to be vaccinated.
Half measures haven’t worked. We’ve tried giving away free stuff, putting famous faces on TV to advertise. New York City has offered free subway passes, which are normally expensive for many people.
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But despite having all the vaccine doses one could hope for, only about 50% of Americans are vaccinated. Canada, whose vaccine program initially lagged, passed us. So has the United Kingdom. The European Union will soon as well, even though the United States has produced and distributed so many of the vaccines they’re using. All the while, Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America are crying out for the doses we can't convince some Americans to take.
That's the root of the problem: Americans don’t trust each other or the government enough to get jabbed. Political division, disinformation, and stupidity made a large segment of Americans unwilling to listen to facts, whether they’re coming from Dr. Anthony Fauci or (now pro-vaccine) Republican House leader Steve Scalise or conservative TV star Sean Hannity.
Instead, Americans find conspiracies online and on television. Some believe the vaccine will implant a microchip into your body, or that it causes infertility (it doesn't do either). Some suggest the vaccine itself might be harmful while ignoring the hundreds of thousands of Americans killed by Covid-19. And dishonest social media or television figures, recognizing the potential to win votes and/or pocket cash, have made themselves rich and famous (and now vaccinated!) by pushing fake news about vaccines. It’s also because social media companies haven’t done enough to take down false information because it drives clicks.
This is not an environment in which enough people will change their minds, because to accept the science now is to admit that you and your favorite information sources have been wrong all along.
We’ve lost 600,000 Americans to this disease, and we’re going to lose more. Clearly, the time for convincing people is over. We’re so close to the finish line in the fight against Covid-19, and I believe a little bit of coercion will get us there.
I almost never support taking away people’s liberties. I support gun rights; free speech; gay marriage, marijuana legalization, you name it. I love freedom. But here and now, we're talking about saving huge numbers of American lives.
Not only will vaccine mandates save lives, but they'll also get our economy back on track. They will put people back to work. If too many people remain unvaccinated, the economy will continuously reopen and close as cases spike. That might be fine for the privileged minority that can work from home, but service workers and others who have to show up in the workplace to make a living—many of them among the unvaccinated—will lose cash they desperately need.
I'm not saying we should send anti-vaxxers to jail. Make them pay a fine. Just as Australia levies a $55 (AUD) penalty against those who don’t vote in elections without a valid reason, so too should the US fine those who do not get vaccinated despite having no reason not to.
Is this a restriction of liberty? Yes it is. But so is forcing motorists to carry a driver’s license and fining those who refuse to buckle up. So is telling an 18-year-old soldier he’s not old enough to drink a beer.
After 9/11, we took away a whole host of other liberties. You can’t get on a plane without taking off your shoes or allowing a TSA agent to look at you naked. (Through an x-ray machine, but still!) How about the PATRIOT Act? Thanks to that, the government can read your bank and credit card reports in the name of national security. We did all that to make sure 9/11 didn't happen again—to save a few thousand American lives from terrorism.
A vaccine mandate will save tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of lives. It makes more sense than a lot of the limits we’ve already imposed and is certainly more important to the nation at large. It's hardly a step toward authoritarianism.
I get why people are skittish, and why nobody wants to demand vaccine mandates. But saving that many lives is worth a small compromise of “liberty.”
And as a patriotic American, I believe it’s my duty to give a damn what happens to other Americans—even those who don’t give a damn about me.
That it’s. Now, what do you think? You can really let me have it by commenting below; I'm looking forward to hearing from you.
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