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A crane moves humanitarian aid for Gaza in a joint mission between NGOs Open Arms and World Central Kitchen at the port of Larnaca, Cyprus, March 8, 2024.
Aid trickles into Gaza – but how’s it getting there?
Amid warnings that close to 600,000 Gazans face famine, the World Food Programme said six of its trucks managed to enter northern Gaza for just the first time in three weeks on Wednesday.
What aid is actually getting into the enclave, and by what routes?
By land: Before the war, an average of 500 aid trucks entered the Gaza strip daily. In the first week of March, the Israeli government, which controls access points into Gaza (see our explainer here), allowed in an average of just 164 per day.
By air: The US, UAE, Jordan, Egypt, and France have all begun airdropping food. But a single truck can deliver ten times as much food as a plane, according to the UN, and people who need food the most might not get any.
By sea: An EU-backed ship is sailing to Gaza from Cyprus now, carrying about ten trucks worth of aid. A US Army team is also sailing from Virginia with equipment to build a floating pier, which could theoretically receive enough food to feed Gaza, but will take at least two months to become operational.Palestinians are carrying injured victims to the hospital following an Israeli airstrike on a residential building in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, on March 7, 2024, as battles continue between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement.
No Gaza truce by Ramadan
The Hamas delegation left Cairo Thursday after four days of fruitless talks that Israel boycotted, meaning there will be no cease-fire in Gaza ahead of Ramadan.
The impediments: Israel boycotted the talks because Hamas refused to provide a list of living hostages in advance. Hamas, for its part, said it could not agree to any cease-fire without Israel committing to withdrawing its troops in a phased pullout.
The nightmare for Gazans: A quarter of the population is reportedly "one step away" from famine conditions — with 575,000 on the verge of starvation.
France, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, the US, and Jordan have airdropped aid, but the trickle won’t suffice. US President Joe Biden is expected to announce the construction of a floating pier off Gaza to take in aid by sea in his State of the Union speech tonight.
What we’re watching: Will Israel go ahead with its threatened invasion of Rafah? Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had set a March 10 deadline for hostages to be returned. A leaked US diplomatic cable this week said that such an invasion could result in “mass civilian casualties, extensive population displacement, and the collapse of the existing humanitarian response.”FILE PHOTO: Palestinians carry bags of flour they grabbed from an aid truck near an Israeli checkpoint, as Gaza residents face crisis levels of hunger, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in Gaza City, February 19, 2024.
As Gazans face starvation, aid organizations struggle to help
The humanitarian crisis in Gaza amid the Israel-Hamas war is dire, and it’s being exacerbated by the convoluted array of logistical and political obstacles that aid organizations are facing.
With nearly two million people displaced from their homes and the specters of starvation and disease looming, here’s a look at the challenges aid organizations face to save lives.
Who’s on the ground in Gaza? Even before Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, the economically-devastating Israeli blockade on Gaza, which is backed by Egypt, left 80% of people in the enclave dependent on international aid, according to the UN.
Between 2014 and 2020, the United Nations spent close to $4.5 billion in Gaza, largely through its agency for Palestinian refugees known as UNRWA. Qatar also provided well over $1 billion in aid to the territory before the war, with Israel’s approval.
The Red Cross, World Food Program (WFP), World Health Organization (WHO), Doctors Without Borders, and the Red Crescent have all also remained active in Gaza during the war in various capacities, but with significant limitations. The WFP, for example, recently announced it is suspending deliveries to north Gaza — where one-in-six children are estimated to be malnourished — due to security concerns such as gunfire and people attempting to break into trucks carrying aid.
A dire situation. As the reported death toll from the fighting in Gaza creeps toward 30,000, an estimated 1.9 million people — over 80% of the territory’s population — have been displaced by the war, more than half of whom are sheltering in the enclave’s south. The UN says the entire population is at risk of famine, while preventable diseases are killing people as the health system collapses.
Israel has placed severe restrictions on the flow of aid into Gaza since the war began, and the military has faced allegations of targeting aid delivery trucks. Prior to the war, roughly 500 trucks entered Gaza per day. From February 1 to 23, an average of 93 trucks per day entered Gaza, and there were seven days when 20 or fewer trucks made it in, according to UNRWA.
“This situation in Gaza is extremely dire because there is no safe place for Gazans to move from — no ‘escape valve,’” says Paul Spiegel, Director of Johns Hopkins Center for Humanitarian Health. “Furthermore, the severe restrictions of basic lifesaving goods into Gaza — fuel, water, food and medicines, combined with the attacks on health facilities — make it very difficult for people to survive.”
Meanwhile, over a dozen countries — including the US — have frozen funding to UNRWA after Israel alleged that 12 of its employees participated in the Oct. 7 attack. UNRWA fired the employees implicated and has launched an inquiry.
Philippe Lazzarini, UNRWA’s commissioner general, on Thursday warned that the agency has reached a “breaking point… at a time of unprecedented humanitarian needs in Gaza.”
If the war in Gaza escalates, more than 85,000 people could die over the next six months on top of the death toll so far, according to projections in a new report from Spiegel and a group of fellow epidemiologists. The report projected that thousands will still die even if a cease-fire is reached.
“UNRWA remains the organization with the biggest footprint and capability to deliver aid in Gaza, by far. If UNRWA reduces its services substantially, many more people will die,” says Spiegel.
FILE PHOTO: Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy shakes hands with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as they attend a joint press conference, in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada September 22, 2023.
Canada shows Kyiv the money
Defense officials say Ottawa will inject CA$30 million into a push to buy ammunition, working with Czechia, aka the Czech Republic, to get artillery shells into the hands of Ukrainian soldiers. Allies are being urged to step up since US funding lapsed – and in the wake of Ukraine’s withdrawal from Avdiivka amid heavy losses.
At the Munich Security Conference, as attendees absorbed news of the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Denmark announced it would send all of its artillery to help the struggling Ukrainians and called on other countries to do more.
Republicans in the US Congress, under the influence of Donald Trump, meanwhile, have blocked aid, and rookie House Speaker Mike Johnsonhas failed to bring a Senate-passed $95-billion aid package for Ukraine and Israel up for a vote. Johnson is under threat from hardline Republicans who may try to oust him if he passes aid for Ukraine. But Democrats are considering taking steps to protect Johnson if he helps them get the package passed.
Unlike the US, Canada’s government has not wavered in its support for Ukraine, although the amounts of money are tiny in comparison. Defense Minister Bill Blair signed a memorandum of understanding with Czechia but has not yet revealed any details.
Canada is also facing intense pressure to boost its defense spending. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenbergsaid Tuesday that Canada needs to set a date to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP, NATO’s guideline for members. Canada spent just 1.38% of GDP on defense in 2023. Meanwhile, only 11 of NATO’s 33 members met the 2% guideline last year, but several European countries have been increasing their spending sparked by fears of Russian aggression.
Sep 21, 2023; Washington, DC, USA; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits President Joe Biden at the White House. Zelenskyy is slated to pitch to lawmakers and President Biden on continuing aid to Ukraine as it battles in an ongoing war from the invasion by Russia.
Ukraine’s about the economy, stupid
Over the past 20 months, Joe Biden has framed US backing for Ukraine as, variously, a struggle for the future of freedom, as a deterrent against Chinese designs on Taiwan, and even as part of a fight to tame inflation.
But as polls show waning interest among US voters for sending weapons to Ukraine, the White House is taking a different tack: job creation?
The US has sent more than $40 billion in weapons to Kyiv, and last week the White House asked Congress for $60 billion more in Ukraine aid, about half of which would be for arms.
The Biden administration is now pushing lawmakers to make the case that this money boosts employment: After all, when Washington sends weapons to Ukraine, they’re made in US factories. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told Fox News that Ukraine aid had created jobs in 38 states.
Earlier this year, reports suggested that the US arms industry, which accounts for 10% of all US factory output, was having trouble finding enough labor to meet the surge in demand.
File Photo: U.S. soldiers stand next to a Patriot anti-missile battery (not seen) west of Jerusalem, during "Austere Challenge 2012", a joint Israeli-hosted exercise October 23, 2012.
Hard Numbers: US prepares troops to support Israel, heartbreak for gay Indians, a massive missing statue, Mexico’s end-run around Panama, Algeria steps up for Palestinian soccer
2,000: The US military has ordered 2,000 soldiers to prepare to be deployed to Israel, where they may provide medical and advisory support to Israeli forces. This potential deployment is in addition to the 2,000-strong force of sailors and Marines the Pentagon said was sailing toward the Eastern Mediterranean on Monday.
5: A five-judge panel of the Indian Supreme Court unanimously declined to legalize same-sex marriage in the world’s largest democracy on Tuesday, referring the issue to Parliament instead. The ruling conservative Bharatiya Janata Party opposes same-sex marriage, and the government’s solicitor Tushar Mehta said such a union is “far removed from the social ethos” of India.
3.5 million: A plaster cast by master sculptor Auguste Rodin worth approximately 3.5 million euros ($3.7 million) has gone missing — or to use the archival euphemism, it’s been “unlocated” — from the collection of the Glasgow Museum in Scotland. If you were holding your breath to see it … well, you are probably dead because the last time it was on display was 1949, and some archivists believe it may have broken while in storage.
2.8 billion: The Mexican government launched a $2.8 billion project to revive a rail corridor along the Isthmus of Tehuantepec that could bring cargo from the Atlantic to the Pacific, bypassing the Panama Canal. The canal is struggling to operate amid drought conditions, with low-water levels leaving container ships waiting for weeks. But experts say it will take years for Mexico to build the infrastructure needed to seriously rival Panama.
3: The Palestinian soccer team could play at least three home matches to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup in Algeria, after the Algerian Football Federation offered to host the team’s “home” games and pay associated costs in an act of solidarity. The Algerians also said they would foot the bill for the “Lions of Canaan” to travel to their away qualifiers and to the Asian Cup in Qatar in January.File Photo: The South Korea and U.S. alliance fired eight combined surface-to-surface missiles ATACMS into the East Sea in response to North Korea multiple ballistic missile (SRBM) provocation from around 4:45 p.m on June 6, 2022.
Did the Ukrainians just use ATACMS?
Ukrainian officials have pleaded with Washington for months to provide its military with so-called Army Tactical Missile Systems, widely known as ATACMS, to hit important Russian targets deep behind enemy lines. It appears the US has now sent a small number of these missiles – and Ukraine claims that it used them on the battlefield on Tuesday to big effect. Its Special Operations Forces say they destroyed nine Russian helicopters, an air defense launcher, and an ammunition depot, with multiple Russian casualties.
Were the weapons they used the sought-after ATACMS? Ukraine isn’t saying, though President Volodymyr Zelensky dropped some not-so-subtle hints following the strike. “I thank those who are destroying at scale the logistics and bases of the occupiers of our land. We have results,” Zelensky said Tuesday. “I thank certain partners of ours: effective weapons, just as we agreed.”
Zelensky has every reason to talk up Ukrainian successes. The counteroffensive has so far fallen well short of the hopes and expectations of allies. The crisis in Israel has distracted the US and Europe and may require military resources that might have gone to Ukraine. Some hard-right Republicans in the US have called for a halt to US help for Kyiv.
It’s also likely that the missiles used in this case were an older version of ATACMS that lack the range of the more modern weapons Ukraine is still hoping for. Most targets inside Crimea, for example, remain out of reach for now.
But this attack reminds us that Washington remains Ukraine’s ally, Ukraine’s military remains a potent fighting force, and much still happens behind the scenes that we become aware of only when something large explodes.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki embrace during a joint news briefing on a day of the first anniversary of Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine February 24, 2023.
Poland’s startling - and deceptive - announcement
Maybe you saw the shock headline – “Poland no longer supplying weapons to Ukraine amid grain row” – and wondered how such close allies had experienced such a significant wartime falling-out.
Early Wednesday, Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced the country had stopped weapons shipments to Ukraine, presumably in response to criticism from Ukraine’s President Zelensky over Poland’s refusal to buy Ukrainian grain diverted by war. But the shocked international response to Morawiecki’s message forced Poland’s government to quickly backtrack/clarify its position.
Here’s the critical context:
· Poland will continue to supply Ukraine with weapons it has already promised to deliver.
· Poland’s stock of excess weapons is currently close to depletion, leaving its government with little more to offer, at least for the moment.
· Poland is, and will remain, the path through which arms shipments from other countries reach Ukraine.
One more point to remember: Poland will hold parliamentary elections on October 15. Prime Minister Morawiecki is well aware the far-right Confederation party can pull votes from his center-right party by criticizing the cost of continuing support for Ukraine. By appearing to punish Poland’s eastern neighbor, Morawiecki can try to protect his vote share.
Bottom-line: Don’t be fooled. Poland remains Ukraine’s staunch ally against Russia.