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Hard Numbers: Malaysia backs Hamas, Democrats win key races, fighting in Ethiopia's Amhara region, South Africa’s highway terror, Europe invests in space
77 billion: Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim jeopardized his country’s $77 billion trade relationship with the United States this week by coming out hard in support of Hamas, with which Malaysia has long maintained ties. Anwar, who compared the group to Nelson Mandela, could run afoul of the Hamas International Financing Prevention Act and invite US sanctions on his country — but the rise of the Islamist PAS party and the fragility of his multi-ethnic coalition are pushing him to appeal to such sentiment despite his reputation as a liberal reformer.
3: Democrats won three major off-cycle elections in the US last night, taking the Kentucky governorship, keeping the Virginia state senate, and winning a ballot measure in Ohio to protect abortion rights. The wins come despite weak poll numbers for President Joe Biden, and seem to reinforce the view that GOP overreach on abortion helps turn Democrats out on voting day. For more on the long term consequences, read Eurasia Group expert Kylie Milliken's take.
3,000: Fighting between federal troops and local militias in Ethiopia’s Amhara region has displaced 3,000 people in recent months, according to the Ethiopia Human Rights Commission. From 2020-2022, Amharan troops helped the government to put down a rebellion by militants in the Tigray region, but since then they have refused orders to integrate with national security forces. As a result, government forces have begun cracking down on people suspected of supporting the Amharan militias.
280,000: South Africans suffered 280,000 carjackings between April 2022 and March 2023 (the latest period for which statistics are available) amid an epidemic of violent crime on the roadways that recently ensnared the country’s transport minister. More shocking: The figure for 2021/22 was even higher, with carjackings totaling 330,000.
340 million: France, Germany, and Italy agreed to jointly put up €340 million ($365 million) annually for European space exploration company Arianespace to launch its Ariane 6 rocket at least four times per year and another lighter launcher at least three times. The investment is intended to make Europe’s space sector more competitive with American firms like SpaceX.Japan looks south to bolster its security
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is in Manila Friday for a summit with Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. as Tokyo attempts to draw closer to partners in Southeast Asia to hedge against China.
Tokyo already has extensive economic and diplomatic ties to the Philippines, and has strategically cultivated strong relations in Southeast Asia since the late 1970s. However, during this visit, along with a stop in Malaysia this weekend, Kishida hopes to deepen military ties, opening up Japanese defense exports to both countries, and setting up cross-training programs.
Adding a military dimension is an important change for Tokyo. In the wake of World War II, instead of a collective security strategy à la NATO, the United States pursued a “hub and spoke” system in Asia. Countries like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines were all allies of the US, but not of one another, in part to maximize US leverage but also because each country faced diverging threats. What concerned Manila in the 1950s wasn’t necessarily an issue for Tokyo.
Now there’s one problem everyone in the region cares about: the Chinese military. Tokyo is well aware it can no longer rely on technological superiority to protect itself from China — nor can Washington. What it can do is fall back on those longstanding ties and give a boost to partners in Southeast Asia, says Eurasia Group’s Japan Director David Boling.
“Kishida’s visit to the Philippines to strengthen defense cooperation is Japan’s way of reminding China of this: You may be bigger than we are, but we have more friends than you do,” he said.
Hard Numbers: Mass shooter kills in Maine, Mexico slammed by sudden hurricane, UAW makes deal with Ford, South African miners resurface, and Meloni takes a breakup break
16: A man in Lewiston, Maine, killed at least 16 people and injured dozens more in two mass shootings last night at a restaurant and bowling alley. The killer remains at large, and authorities urge all residents to shelter in place.
165: Hurricane Otis barreled into southwestern Mexico on Wednesday with sustained winds of over 165 mph after a sudden intensification overnight transformed it into a Category 5 storm — and left authorities in Guerrero state with virtually no time to respond. Damage is expected to be severe, and experts at the National Hurricane Center said, “There are no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part of Mexico.”
25: United Auto Workers reached a tentative four-year deal with Ford on Wednesday that would, if approved by union members, mean a 25% salary boost in addition to cost-of-living raises. UAW advised members to return to work at Ford, which will pressure the other car brands involved in the six-week strike, GM and Stellantis, to follow suit.
107: More than 100 miners locked in a tense dispute between rival labor unions in South Africa’s Gold One mine have emerged from underground, where they had been trapped since Sunday night. Those who resurfaced confirmed that more of their colleagues are being held against their will by miners associated with the other union and that over a dozen people were injured in scuffles between the groups.
1: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni took a personal day this week following her sudden breakup with television presenter Andrea Giambruno. Her partner of 10 years and the father of her seven-year-old daughter, Giambruno was caught on a hot mic bragging about a workplace affair while trying to pick up a third woman. Calling into a party conference, Meloni reminded Italians that “I, too, am human.”
Hard Numbers: Hip-hop hits half a century, rising death toll from Hawaii fires, Malaysia checks rainbow Swatches, abortion tops US concerns, India passes new data law
50: This Friday marks 50 years since the date commonly recognized as the birthday of hip hop, when Jamaican-born DJ Kool Herc rocked a party at a residential building on Sedgwick Avenue in the Bronx, cutting together drum breaks for people to dance to and throw rhymes over. The New York-born art form — which encompasses MC’ing, DJ’ing, breakdancing, and graffiti — has since spread around the globe to become the single most influential worldwide cultural movement of the past half-century. For a look at what the culture was like in the early days, there’s nothing better than the 1982 cult-classic film “Wild Style.”
55: The death toll from devastating wildfires in Maui, Hawaii, has now risen to 55. Strong winds from Hurricane Dora and dry conditions fueled by climate change contributed to the blazes. But scientists say the growth of a "highly flammable" invasive plant ruining the natural ecosystem is also making it easier for fires to spread.
3: You know what time it is in Malaysia? Time to let you know that the government there on Thursday imposed a 3-year prison sentence for owning or wearing a watch from Swatch’s Pride Collection, which celebrates the LGBTQ+ community. Malaysia still criminalizes same-sex relationships and recentlycanceled a major music festival after the lead singer of British band The 1975 bashed the country’s anti-gay laws and kissed a male bandmate on stage. Here’s a look at the global divide over LGBTQ+ love.
77: As the 2024 presidential election looms, what’s the most important issue for US voters? Abortion, which topped the list for 77% of Americans in a new Economist/YouGov poll. Here’s a GZERO explainer on why the issue is so sensitive in the US.
30 million: India has passed a landmark new data privacy law that imposes fines of up to $30 million for mishandling user data. But critics have focused on a provision in the law that permits the government to block content in the public interest. Given the broader crackdown on independent media in India in recent years, there are concerns the law could be used to stifle criticism of the government.
Hard Numbers: Nashville school shooting, Rohingya flee to Indonesia, Deutsche disruption, America’s tumbling tolerance, white-collar AI wipeout
6: Six people, including three young children and three adults, were killed on Monday at the Covenant School, a private Christian primary school in Nashville, Tenn. Audrey Hale, a former student, was identified as the shooter. The 28-year-old was shot and killed by police during the attack, the 130th mass shooting in the US this year.
184: That’s how many Rohingya refugees landed in Indonesia’s western Aceh province on Monday. Each year, asylum-seekers flee persecution in Myanmar by making the treacherous voyage through the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea to reach Muslim-majority Indonesia or Malaysia.
24: Transportation across Germany ground to a halt Monday in the country’s largest walkout in decades. Unions called a rare 24-hour strike to press for a double-digit rise wage hike amid soaring inflation — partly due to Germany kicking its Russian natural gas habit over the war in Ukraine.
58: So much for loving thy neighbor. A new Wall Street Journal-NORC poll finds that just 58% of Americans believe that tolerance for others is very important, down from 80% four years ago. People in the US now prioritize money more than patriotism and religion. Why? Experts cite the economy, COVID, and fractured politics.
300 million: Generative artificial intelligence systems like ChatGPT — which can create human-like content — could put a whopping 300 million people out of work within a decade in big economies. According to Goldman Sachs, lawyers and administrative staff are the most at risk, and two-thirds of jobs in the US and Europe could be exposed to some form of automation.
What We’re Watching: Climate comp fund, Malaysian coalition building
COP27 delivers on reparations but fails on fossil fuels
Two days behind schedule, the COP27 climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, finally wrapped up with a historic agreement on Sunday. Wealthy countries will pay poor nations for the economic damage caused by climate change. The so-called "loss and damage fund" will compensate the developing world for impacts like droughts and flooding, which rich nations led by the US had resisted for 30 years. But so far it's only a political statement of intentions with no financial commitment, so it'll be up to future COPs to work out the details. What's more, climate activists' joy over the much-awaited reparations deal was overshadowed by a lack of progress in cutting fossil fuels. Efforts to include stronger language on phasing out oil and natural gas on top of coal were rebuffed by top fossil fuel producers as well as by major guzzlers in the developing world who won't jeopardize their economic growth to embrace renewables. In other words, a victory for climate justice but a painful defeat for clean energy at a COP where expectations were low.
Get more COP27 insights from Eurasia Group analyst Franck Gbaguidi on our Instagram and YouTube channels.
Nationalist bloc might take power in Malaysia
As expected, Malaysia's general election on Saturday delivered a hung parliament without a clear winner. But there were plenty of losers. The opposition multiethnic alliance led by former PM Anwar Ibrahim won the most seats (80) but fell far short of a majority in the 222-member parliament, while the once-dominant UMNO party got its worst result ever with only 30. And perhaps the biggest upset was 97-year-old ex-PM Mahathir Mohamad losing his seat — his first election defeat in 53 years. Meanwhile, a Malay-first alliance captained by Muhyiddin Yassin, yet another former PM, overperformed with 73 seats. Muhyiddin is now favored to return to the premiership after clinching the support of two regional parties from Borneo and is wooing UMNO, but Anwar says he should have a go first. Who'll make the call? The current king under Malaysia’s unique rotating monarchy, who has the constitutional power to appoint the next PM and wants a name by Monday.
What We’re Watching: Pelosi’s farewell, #RIPTwitter, Malaysian vote, Iranian rage, UK austerity
Pelosi takes a final bow
Nancy Pelosi is standing down as leader of the Democratic Party in the US House, but she’ll remain in Congress as a representative of San Francisco. She was both the first woman to serve in the ultra-powerful role of House Speaker and a hate figure for many on the right. Pelosi’s personal toughness, Herculean fundraising prowess, and ability to hold together the typically fractious Democratic Party in the House will remain her legacy for Democrats. For Republicans, seeing her pass the gavel to one of their own in January will mark a moment of triumph in an otherwise disappointing midterm performance. In announcing her plans, Pelosi noted that “the hour has come for a new generation to lead the Democratic caucus.” At a moment when both parties are led by politicians of advancing age, that’s a big step – and a trend we’ll be watching closely as a new Congress takes shape and the next race for the White House begins. Eurasia Group US Managing Director Jon Lieber says his bet is on 52-year-old Hakeem Jeffries taking the Democratic reins. If Jeffries gets the job, he'll make history as the first Black politician to lead a party in Congress.
The fate of an endangered bluebird
Are these possibly the final hours for Twitter? Will the social media company, recently purchased and immediately upended by Elon Musk, survive longer than the proverbial head of lettuce? No one really knows now, after the company announced late Thursday that its offices would be closed until Monday as it deals with mass resignations. The wave of departures was triggered by Musk’s hardass demand earlier this week that employees agree to a “hardcore” work environment or take three months of severance and be gone. Hundreds, if not thousands, evidently took option two. Taken alongside an earlier wave of Musk’s planned layoffs, some estimates say as many as three-quarters of the company’s workers could be gone now. Will Musk take the L and backtrack on his “hardcore” demand, or will he double down and try to run the company with a skeleton crew? Regardless, just weeks into the era of Musk, Twitter is looking less like the free speech “town square” that he envisioned and more like the town circus.
Malaysia’s election head-scratcher
Malaysians go to the polls Sunday to vote in their first national election since 2018, when the opposition Patakan Harapan Party ended the Barisan Nasional coalition's 60-year stranglehold on power after then-PM Najib Razak got busted in the billion-dollar 1MDB corruption scandal. Since then, though, Patakan has lost its mojo due to infighting and defections to Najib's own UMNO party, which — we kid you not — is now part of the coalition government. Further complicating things is that Patakan's new leader is Najib's old mentor, former PM Mahathir Mohamad, who's running for a seat in parliament — and perhaps the premiership for the third time — at the ripe young age of ... 97. Meanwhile, Najib is behind bars. Malaysian politics take complicated to a whole new level, but the gist of it is this: It's unlikely any party will get an outright majority, so the most likely outcome is a hung parliament that'll result in another shaky coalition or a fresh election.
Rage fuels Iran protests
“We’ll fight! We’ll die! We’ll take back Iran!” protesters are chanting in Tehran these days. And indeed, many have fought and died. At least 15 were reportedly killed on Wednesday night, including a 9-year-old boy, amid widespread demonstrations against Iran’s repressive regime and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The country has been rocked by protests since mid-September, when 22-year-old Mahsa Amini was beaten to death by cops for wearing her hijab “improperly.” The last couple of days have seen commemorative demonstrations to mark the deadly Nov. 2019 protests that erupted over fuel prices. The Islamic Republic is reportedly growing concerned by the increasing violence involved in demonstrations, with government rhetoric referring to “armed” protesters as “separatists” and even “terrorists.” Thousands have been arrested, and at least four protesters have been sentenced to death. We’ll be watching this weekend with concern for how heated and deadly things get.
Britain braces for economic hardship
2022 has been tough for Brits — and the next 18 months will be even worse. On Thursday, Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt finally unveiled his much-awaited fiscal plan, the first under PM Rishi Sunak, warning families that their living standards could fall by as much as 7% until at least mid-2024. Nixing almost all of the tax-cutting yet free-spending "mini-budget" that cost Liz Truss her premiership a month ago, Hunt confirmed big tax hikes and spending cuts that Downing St. cannot avoid in order to keep the UK's finances in check amid a deep economic crisis and energy crunch. The chancellor's message was dark: Brits will need to tighten their belts to get through this rough patch. Still, how the people cope with austerity could determine Sunak’s political fate. The newly minted PM is not required to call a new election until the end of 2024, but he might not have a choice if voters blame him for their dire straits. And that's just what the opposition Labour Party — now leading the polls by more than 40 points, its biggest margin ever — is waiting for.This was featured in Signal, the daily politics newsletter of GZERO Media. For smart coverage of global affairs that normal people can understand, subscribe here.
Will elections bring more political stability to Malaysia?
Malaysia will hold early elections on Nov. 19, the government announced Thursday. Polls were not due until September 2023, but Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob had come under intense pressure to bring them forward from senior figures in the ruling United Malays National Organization party and its Barisan Nasional partners. Several of these face criminal prosecutions they hope a new government would quash, while others argued elections should be held earlier to deprive the opposition of time to regroup.
Malaysia has gone through significant political instability — and three prime ministers – since the shock 2018 election defeat of UMNO, which had ruled the country since independence. Amid much greater parliamentary fragmentation and shifting political alliances, the country was led by two other coalitions – Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional – until BN returned to power in 2021 with Ismail’s premiership. BN and PN have governed Malaysia together since 2020, but PN was previously the senior partner whereas BN now is.
Will the upcoming polls result in greater political stability? Will they make much difference in the policy outlook? Eurasia Group analysts Peter Mumford and Fadli Yusoff explain.
Who's favored to win?
No one, at least in terms of securing an outright majority. The most likely result is a hung parliament, with none of the coalitions having a simple majority (112 seats or more). But UMNO/BN is likely to emerge from the polls with the most seats and therefore be best placed to form the next government with the support of several small-to-mid sized parties.
UMNO/BN benefits from a much stronger ground operation than other parties/coalitions and has momentum after triumphs in recent state elections. Meanwhile, PN and PH will likely split the anti-UMNO vote, to the benefit of the ruling party.
What will this mean in terms of government policy?
A new UMNO-led government would raise concerns about further entrenching affirmative-action or race-based policies, protectionism in government procurement, and corruption related to UMNO political funding. Yet the more seats UMNO gets, the more stable its government will be, questions over Ismail’s long-term future aside. On fiscal policy, the party would push to raise more revenue, including through the reintroduction of the Goods and Services Tax, which was scrapped by the PH government. And on foreign policy, UMNO tends to favor stronger relations with China but is not anti-US.
Does the opposition led by Anwar Ibrahim have a shot? How could he win?
PH’s longtime leader Anwar Ibrahim has been damaged by repeated failures to seize the top job, either in previous elections or through parliamentary dealmaking. But the opposition may be able to pull off a surprise victory if the majority ethnic Malay vote splits between BN and PN, enabling PH, which has stronger appeal among ethnic Chinese and Indians, to slip through the middle and secure victory. Public discontent over inflation, especially food prices, also remains a key voter concern, though PH has so far failed to capitalize on this.
This election will also be the first since the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18, meaning there will be more than a million new young voters participating. These are more likely to reject BN’s old-style politics and vote for PH. But it is unclear how high turnout will be for this age group, as it seems less engaged in politics.
Former PM Mahathir Mohamad is running to defend his seat at 97. Could he end up serving a third stint in power?
Mahathir will likely retain his seat in Langkawi island (Kedah state), but his small new party, Pejuang, is unlikely to win many others and is not part of a major coalition. The nonagenarian politician will probably not be in the mix for the premiership after the polls, barring extreme scenarios. But never say never in Malaysian politics.
What are the likely campaign issues?
BN will focus on stability after several years of political chaos, reminding voters that the country was more stable and developed rapidly when UMNO dominated government. Opponents will instead focus on inflation — which rose to a 16-month high of 4.7% in August — and corruption. The latter issue has gained prominence since ex-premier and UMNO stalwart Najib Razak’s jailing in August over the billion-dollar 1MDB corruption scandal and a separate military procurement case.
Will the timing of the election near monsoon season have an impact?
Polls will take place on the cusp of the main monsoon period for much of Malaysia, though there is already flooding in some parts of the country. Heavy rains ahead of/during polling day would make it harder for many people to get to voting stations. Lower voter turnout in this scenario would likely help BN as its voter base is more energized, though that must be weighed against a potential public backlash for holding polls at an inconvenient time.