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Beat Box and Balloon
Hard Numbers: Hip-hop hits half a century, rising death toll from Hawaii fires, Malaysia checks rainbow Swatches, abortion tops US concerns, India passes new data law
50: This Friday marks 50 years since the date commonly recognized as the birthday of hip hop, when Jamaican-born DJ Kool Herc rocked a party at a residential building on Sedgwick Avenue in the Bronx, cutting together drum breaks for people to dance to and throw rhymes over. The New York-born art form — which encompasses MC’ing, DJ’ing, breakdancing, and graffiti — has since spread around the globe to become the single most influential worldwide cultural movement of the past half-century. For a look at what the culture was like in the early days, there’s nothing better than the 1982 cult-classic film “Wild Style.”
55: The death toll from devastating wildfires in Maui, Hawaii, has now risen to 55. Strong winds from Hurricane Dora and dry conditions fueled by climate change contributed to the blazes. But scientists say the growth of a "highly flammable" invasive plant ruining the natural ecosystem is also making it easier for fires to spread.
3: You know what time it is in Malaysia? Time to let you know that the government there on Thursday imposed a 3-year prison sentence for owning or wearing a watch from Swatch’s Pride Collection, which celebrates the LGBTQ+ community. Malaysia still criminalizes same-sex relationships and recentlycanceled a major music festival after the lead singer of British band The 1975 bashed the country’s anti-gay laws and kissed a male bandmate on stage. Here’s a look at the global divide over LGBTQ+ love.
77: As the 2024 presidential election looms, what’s the most important issue for US voters? Abortion, which topped the list for 77% of Americans in a new Economist/YouGov poll. Here’s a GZERO explainer on why the issue is so sensitive in the US.
30 million: India has passed a landmark new data privacy law that imposes fines of up to $30 million for mishandling user data. But critics have focused on a provision in the law that permits the government to block content in the public interest. Given the broader crackdown on independent media in India in recent years, there are concerns the law could be used to stifle criticism of the government.
Students from the Covenant School in Nashville, Tenn., hold hands after getting off a bus to meet their parents at the reunification site following a mass shooting.
Hard Numbers: Nashville school shooting, Rohingya flee to Indonesia, Deutsche disruption, America’s tumbling tolerance, white-collar AI wipeout
6: Six people, including three young children and three adults, were killed on Monday at the Covenant School, a private Christian primary school in Nashville, Tenn. Audrey Hale, a former student, was identified as the shooter. The 28-year-old was shot and killed by police during the attack, the 130th mass shooting in the US this year.
184: That’s how many Rohingya refugees landed in Indonesia’s western Aceh province on Monday. Each year, asylum-seekers flee persecution in Myanmar by making the treacherous voyage through the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea to reach Muslim-majority Indonesia or Malaysia.
24: Transportation across Germany ground to a halt Monday in the country’s largest walkout in decades. Unions called a rare 24-hour strike to press for a double-digit rise wage hike amid soaring inflation — partly due to Germany kicking its Russian natural gas habit over the war in Ukraine.
58: So much for loving thy neighbor. A new Wall Street Journal-NORC poll finds that just 58% of Americans believe that tolerance for others is very important, down from 80% four years ago. People in the US now prioritize money more than patriotism and religion. Why? Experts cite the economy, COVID, and fractured politics.
300 million: Generative artificial intelligence systems like ChatGPT — which can create human-like content — could put a whopping 300 million people out of work within a decade in big economies. According to Goldman Sachs, lawyers and administrative staff are the most at risk, and two-thirds of jobs in the US and Europe could be exposed to some form of automation.
Egypt's Foreign Minister Samih Zhukri (l) speaks during the closing ceremony at the COP27 climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh.
What We’re Watching: Climate comp fund, Malaysian coalition building
COP27 delivers on reparations but fails on fossil fuels
Two days behind schedule, the COP27 climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, finally wrapped up with a historic agreement on Sunday. Wealthy countries will pay poor nations for the economic damage caused by climate change. The so-called "loss and damage fund" will compensate the developing world for impacts like droughts and flooding, which rich nations led by the US had resisted for 30 years. But so far it's only a political statement of intentions with no financial commitment, so it'll be up to future COPs to work out the details. What's more, climate activists' joy over the much-awaited reparations deal was overshadowed by a lack of progress in cutting fossil fuels. Efforts to include stronger language on phasing out oil and natural gas on top of coal were rebuffed by top fossil fuel producers as well as by major guzzlers in the developing world who won't jeopardize their economic growth to embrace renewables. In other words, a victory for climate justice but a painful defeat for clean energy at a COP where expectations were low.
Get more COP27 insights from Eurasia Group analyst Franck Gbaguidi on our Instagram and YouTube channels.
Nationalist bloc might take power in Malaysia
As expected, Malaysia's general election on Saturday delivered a hung parliament without a clear winner. But there were plenty of losers. The opposition multiethnic alliance led by former PM Anwar Ibrahim won the most seats (80) but fell far short of a majority in the 222-member parliament, while the once-dominant UMNO party got its worst result ever with only 30. And perhaps the biggest upset was 97-year-old ex-PM Mahathir Mohamad losing his seat — his first election defeat in 53 years. Meanwhile, a Malay-first alliance captained by Muhyiddin Yassin, yet another former PM, overperformed with 73 seats. Muhyiddin is now favored to return to the premiership after clinching the support of two regional parties from Borneo and is wooing UMNO, but Anwar says he should have a go first. Who'll make the call? The current king under Malaysia’s unique rotating monarchy, who has the constitutional power to appoint the next PM and wants a name by Monday.
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) wields the gavel as she presides over the first impeachment of President Donald Trump.
What We’re Watching: Pelosi’s farewell, #RIPTwitter, Malaysian vote, Iranian rage, UK austerity
Pelosi takes a final bow
Nancy Pelosi is standing down as leader of the Democratic Party in the US House, but she’ll remain in Congress as a representative of San Francisco. She was both the first woman to serve in the ultra-powerful role of House Speaker and a hate figure for many on the right. Pelosi’s personal toughness, Herculean fundraising prowess, and ability to hold together the typically fractious Democratic Party in the House will remain her legacy for Democrats. For Republicans, seeing her pass the gavel to one of their own in January will mark a moment of triumph in an otherwise disappointing midterm performance. In announcing her plans, Pelosi noted that “the hour has come for a new generation to lead the Democratic caucus.” At a moment when both parties are led by politicians of advancing age, that’s a big step – and a trend we’ll be watching closely as a new Congress takes shape and the next race for the White House begins. Eurasia Group US Managing Director Jon Lieber says his bet is on 52-year-old Hakeem Jeffries taking the Democratic reins. If Jeffries gets the job, he'll make history as the first Black politician to lead a party in Congress.
The fate of an endangered bluebird
Are these possibly the final hours for Twitter? Will the social media company, recently purchased and immediately upended by Elon Musk, survive longer than the proverbial head of lettuce? No one really knows now, after the company announced late Thursday that its offices would be closed until Monday as it deals with mass resignations. The wave of departures was triggered by Musk’s hardass demand earlier this week that employees agree to a “hardcore” work environment or take three months of severance and be gone. Hundreds, if not thousands, evidently took option two. Taken alongside an earlier wave of Musk’s planned layoffs, some estimates say as many as three-quarters of the company’s workers could be gone now. Will Musk take the L and backtrack on his “hardcore” demand, or will he double down and try to run the company with a skeleton crew? Regardless, just weeks into the era of Musk, Twitter is looking less like the free speech “town square” that he envisioned and more like the town circus.
Malaysia’s election head-scratcher
Malaysians go to the polls Sunday to vote in their first national election since 2018, when the opposition Patakan Harapan Party ended the Barisan Nasional coalition's 60-year stranglehold on power after then-PM Najib Razak got busted in the billion-dollar 1MDB corruption scandal. Since then, though, Patakan has lost its mojo due to infighting and defections to Najib's own UMNO party, which — we kid you not — is now part of the coalition government. Further complicating things is that Patakan's new leader is Najib's old mentor, former PM Mahathir Mohamad, who's running for a seat in parliament — and perhaps the premiership for the third time — at the ripe young age of ... 97. Meanwhile, Najib is behind bars. Malaysian politics take complicated to a whole new level, but the gist of it is this: It's unlikely any party will get an outright majority, so the most likely outcome is a hung parliament that'll result in another shaky coalition or a fresh election.
Rage fuels Iran protests
“We’ll fight! We’ll die! We’ll take back Iran!” protesters are chanting in Tehran these days. And indeed, many have fought and died. At least 15 were reportedly killed on Wednesday night, including a 9-year-old boy, amid widespread demonstrations against Iran’s repressive regime and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The country has been rocked by protests since mid-September, when 22-year-old Mahsa Amini was beaten to death by cops for wearing her hijab “improperly.” The last couple of days have seen commemorative demonstrations to mark the deadly Nov. 2019 protests that erupted over fuel prices. The Islamic Republic is reportedly growing concerned by the increasing violence involved in demonstrations, with government rhetoric referring to “armed” protesters as “separatists” and even “terrorists.” Thousands have been arrested, and at least four protesters have been sentenced to death. We’ll be watching this weekend with concern for how heated and deadly things get.
Britain braces for economic hardship
2022 has been tough for Brits — and the next 18 months will be even worse. On Thursday, Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt finally unveiled his much-awaited fiscal plan, the first under PM Rishi Sunak, warning families that their living standards could fall by as much as 7% until at least mid-2024. Nixing almost all of the tax-cutting yet free-spending "mini-budget" that cost Liz Truss her premiership a month ago, Hunt confirmed big tax hikes and spending cuts that Downing St. cannot avoid in order to keep the UK's finances in check amid a deep economic crisis and energy crunch. The chancellor's message was dark: Brits will need to tighten their belts to get through this rough patch. Still, how the people cope with austerity could determine Sunak’s political fate. The newly minted PM is not required to call a new election until the end of 2024, but he might not have a choice if voters blame him for their dire straits. And that's just what the opposition Labour Party — now leading the polls by more than 40 points, its biggest margin ever — is waiting for.This was featured in Signal, the daily politics newsletter of GZERO Media. For smart coverage of global affairs that normal people can understand, subscribe here.
Malaysians wave flags during the 65th National Day celebrations parade in Kuala Lumpur.
Will elections bring more political stability to Malaysia?
Malaysia will hold early elections on Nov. 19, the government announced Thursday. Polls were not due until September 2023, but Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob had come under intense pressure to bring them forward from senior figures in the ruling United Malays National Organization party and its Barisan Nasional partners. Several of these face criminal prosecutions they hope a new government would quash, while others argued elections should be held earlier to deprive the opposition of time to regroup.
Malaysia has gone through significant political instability — and three prime ministers – since the shock 2018 election defeat of UMNO, which had ruled the country since independence. Amid much greater parliamentary fragmentation and shifting political alliances, the country was led by two other coalitions – Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional – until BN returned to power in 2021 with Ismail’s premiership. BN and PN have governed Malaysia together since 2020, but PN was previously the senior partner whereas BN now is.
Will the upcoming polls result in greater political stability? Will they make much difference in the policy outlook? Eurasia Group analysts Peter Mumford and Fadli Yusoff explain.
Who's favored to win?
No one, at least in terms of securing an outright majority. The most likely result is a hung parliament, with none of the coalitions having a simple majority (112 seats or more). But UMNO/BN is likely to emerge from the polls with the most seats and therefore be best placed to form the next government with the support of several small-to-mid sized parties.
UMNO/BN benefits from a much stronger ground operation than other parties/coalitions and has momentum after triumphs in recent state elections. Meanwhile, PN and PH will likely split the anti-UMNO vote, to the benefit of the ruling party.
What will this mean in terms of government policy?
A new UMNO-led government would raise concerns about further entrenching affirmative-action or race-based policies, protectionism in government procurement, and corruption related to UMNO political funding. Yet the more seats UMNO gets, the more stable its government will be, questions over Ismail’s long-term future aside. On fiscal policy, the party would push to raise more revenue, including through the reintroduction of the Goods and Services Tax, which was scrapped by the PH government. And on foreign policy, UMNO tends to favor stronger relations with China but is not anti-US.
Does the opposition led by Anwar Ibrahim have a shot? How could he win?
PH’s longtime leader Anwar Ibrahim has been damaged by repeated failures to seize the top job, either in previous elections or through parliamentary dealmaking. But the opposition may be able to pull off a surprise victory if the majority ethnic Malay vote splits between BN and PN, enabling PH, which has stronger appeal among ethnic Chinese and Indians, to slip through the middle and secure victory. Public discontent over inflation, especially food prices, also remains a key voter concern, though PH has so far failed to capitalize on this.
This election will also be the first since the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18, meaning there will be more than a million new young voters participating. These are more likely to reject BN’s old-style politics and vote for PH. But it is unclear how high turnout will be for this age group, as it seems less engaged in politics.
Former PM Mahathir Mohamad is running to defend his seat at 97. Could he end up serving a third stint in power?
Mahathir will likely retain his seat in Langkawi island (Kedah state), but his small new party, Pejuang, is unlikely to win many others and is not part of a major coalition. The nonagenarian politician will probably not be in the mix for the premiership after the polls, barring extreme scenarios. But never say never in Malaysian politics.
What are the likely campaign issues?
BN will focus on stability after several years of political chaos, reminding voters that the country was more stable and developed rapidly when UMNO dominated government. Opponents will instead focus on inflation — which rose to a 16-month high of 4.7% in August — and corruption. The latter issue has gained prominence since ex-premier and UMNO stalwart Najib Razak’s jailing in August over the billion-dollar 1MDB corruption scandal and a separate military procurement case.
Will the timing of the election near monsoon season have an impact?
Polls will take place on the cusp of the main monsoon period for much of Malaysia, though there is already flooding in some parts of the country. Heavy rains ahead of/during polling day would make it harder for many people to get to voting stations. Lower voter turnout in this scenario would likely help BN as its voter base is more energized, though that must be weighed against a potential public backlash for holding polls at an inconvenient time.
No feed no chicken
First, it was Indonesia with palm oil, then India with wheat. This week, Malaysia joined a growing list of countries nationalizing food supplies by suspending exports of live chickens to cool down soaring local prices that have skyrocketed since Russia invaded Ukraine.
The ban has ruffled feathers in next-door neighbor Singapore, which buys almost all of its live birds from Malaysia. Notoriously food-snobbish Singaporeans say you cannot prepare Hainanese chicken rice — the country’s beloved de-facto national dish — with frozen hens from Brazil, lah.
It’s gotten political, too. “This time it is chicken, next time it may be something else,” PM Lee Hsieng Loong said in a not-so-thinly-veiled swipe at Malaysia soon after the ban was announced.
How did we get here? Malaysian poultry prices started creeping up in late 2021 due to higher feed costs and a weak ringgit, which makes imports more expensive.
By the time government stepped in, capping prices and removing import duties on feed earlier this year, it was too late. The war had already jacked up the cost of the main ingredient in chicken feed: grains like corn and sunflower.
Malaysia had run out of options, says Yeah Kim Leng, professor of economics at Sunway University in Kuala Lumpur. The rising costs, combined with price controls and hard-to-get subsidies, were simply putting too many chicken growers out of business.
But food protectionism always makes things worse. Export bans, he explains, are "very disruptive and will have long-term implications" — they destroy productive capacity by shutting down farms that become unprofitable, even if the suspension is short-lived, because agribusiness margins are razor-thin, "which is the opposite of what the [Malaysian] government is trying to do."
What's more, Yeah says that hoarding ultimately imperils global food security, as more countries aiming for self-sufficiency make food more expensive for everyone in the long run.
Meanwhile, chicken is getting more expensive everywhere, with no end in sight. UK supermarkets fear that it could soon become more expensive than beef because feed accounts for roughly 70% of the input cost of poultry, making it highly vulnerable to shortages and price swings. The feed itself is in short supply due to a string of bad harvests from climate change-induced droughts and floods, a surge in post-COVID demand, and, of course, the war.
Also, poultry is the low-cost protein staple in many of the world’s poorest countries, where people — unlike wealthy Singaporeans — just can't choose to eat other meats, fish, or tofu when fresh chicken is unavailable.
So, what, if anything, can we do about it? Not much in the near term, says Hilary Ingham, an economics lecturer at Lancaster University. You can make feed from alternative raw materials — including, we kid you not, fish excrements. But none are as good as grains, which means the animals will take longer to fatten up, slashing profit margins for growers and pushing up prices for consumers.
Another way to ease the pain on consumers is to give them cash to offset the higher cost of living, but generous subsidies are out of reach for governments in the developing world. And you can always just grow more of what you need (for instance, the EU is looking to allow farmers to plant crops for livestock feed in fields normally set aside for environmental purposes).
Still, anything that might make a difference will take time, says Ingham — as will fixing global systems exposed as more vulnerable to external shocks than we thought.
Or perhaps we could all just eat less meat. That would definitely free up a lot of the world's cropland, one-third of which is now used to grow food for the animals we eat.
Would you go vegan if chicken becomes a luxury item? Let us know here.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Subscribe for your free daily Signal today.
Malaysia ups palm oil exports, al-Shabab strikes in Somalia, split verdict on marital rape in India, journalist killed in West Bank
Hard Numbers: Malaysia ups palm oil exports, al-Shabab strikes in Somalia, split verdict on marital rape in India, journalist killed in West Bank
162: Indian women’s rights groups are reeling after a New Delhi court failed to deliver a verdict in a case that could have overturned a 162-year-old law permitting marital rape. The Indian Penal Code says sex "by a man with his own wife" does not constitute rape. The case will likely be appealed before the Supreme Court.
40: After Indonesia recently banned palm oil exports amid surging global commodity prices, Malaysia has stepped up its deliveries to try to fill the void. It ramped up deliveries by 40% in the first 10 days of May compared with the same period in April. Still, it won't be able to meet the demand left by Indonesia, which accounts for 60% of global palm oil exports.
4: At least four people were killed in a terror attack near the airport in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu. Al-Shabab, a militant group that has wreaked havoc across the Horn of Africa in recent years, claimed responsibility for the blast, which occurred as candidates were heading to the airport just days before the country’s presidential election.
25: Shireen Abu Akleh, a prominent Palestinian-American journalist who has worked for Al Jazeera for 25 years, was shot and killed while covering an Israeli military operation in the West Bank city of Jenin. The network has blamed Israeli troops, but Israel’s PM Naftali Bennett said she was likely killed by Palestinian gunmen. Israel says it will investigate and hand over its findings to the Qatari government, which owns Al Jazeera.U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken
Hard Numbers: Blinken leads migration summit, Rohingya tragedy in Malaysia, East Timor votes, South African leftists join Eswatini protests
6: Six Rohingya refugees were killed crossing a highway while trying to flee a detention center in northwest Malaysia. The country was once a safe haven for Rohingya fleeing persecution in Myanmar, but in recent years, xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment have led to many refugees being held in unsanitary and oft-dangerous detention centers.
60: With 60% of the vote counted Wednesday, Jose Ramos-Horta looks set to win the presidential runoff in East Timor, Asia’s youngest democracy. Ramos-Horta, an independence fighter during Indonesia’s long occupation of the country and a Nobel laureate, served as president from 2007-2012. He’s vowed to tackle enduring poverty, corruption, and political instability.
36: South Africa’s Economic Freedom Fighters – the country’s third-largest political party with Marxist affiliations – joined protests on the border with Eswatini against King Mswati III, who has led that country’s absolute monarchy with an iron fist for 36 years. Eswatini has been plagued by anti-government protests since an extrajudicial killing by the king’s police last May.