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COP27: Not good enough

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here on a Quick Take to get you kicked off for your week.

I thought I would talk about the Climate Summit, which has just concluded in Sharm El Sheik, the COP27 was not one of the better moments for global climate response. If there was a big win, and I wouldn't call it a big win, but at least it's progress, it's on the establishment of a loss and damage fund and the idea is to use funds from industrialized countries that pay for climate related losses that are already being experienced in the billions and billions of dollars in poorer countries. The developing countries have been demanding the developed world indeed put such a fund together. The problem is of course, that in addition to the reluctance to get it done, just saying that you have such a fund does not have a mechanism for distributing money, a mechanism for raising money, and certainly there is no cash, there's no financing yet. Maybe over time you'll see the private sector make donations into this fund, maybe you'll see some government commitments but for now at least, it's an announcement of intentionality without any there there. That's the big news, right? That's the actual major headline that came out.

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Egypt's Foreign Minister Samih Zhukri (l) speaks during the closing ceremony at the COP27 climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh.

Christophe Gateau/DPA via Reuters

What We’re Watching: Climate comp fund, Malaysian coalition building

COP27 delivers on reparations but fails on fossil fuels

Two days behind schedule, the COP27 climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, finally wrapped up with a historic agreement on Sunday. Wealthy countries will pay poor nations for the economic damage caused by climate change. The so-called "loss and damage fund" will compensate the developing world for impacts like droughts and flooding, which rich nations led by the US had resisted for 30 years. But so far it's only a political statement of intentions with no financial commitment, so it'll be up to future COPs to work out the details. What's more, climate activists' joy over the much-awaited reparations deal was overshadowed by a lack of progress in cutting fossil fuels. Efforts to include stronger language on phasing out oil and natural gas on top of coal were rebuffed by top fossil fuel producers as well as by major guzzlers in the developing world who won't jeopardize their economic growth to embrace renewables. In other words, a victory for climate justice but a painful defeat for clean energy at a COP where expectations were low.

Get more COP27 insights from Eurasia Group analyst Franck Gbaguidi on our Instagram and YouTube channels.

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COP27 Winners & Losers | GZERO Media

COP27 winners and losers

World leaders and climate warriors will soon be departing from the Egyptian resort city of Sharm El-Sheikh, closing out this year’s COP27 climate summit. So what have been the key takeaways from the event?

Eurasia Group’s Franck Gbaguidi sat down with climate expert Alessandro Vitelli to reflect on the central themes they encountered at COP27. For Gbaguidi, it was all about accountability. There was a “focus on breaking down the data, breaking down the figures, giving some of the timeline and checking intermediate milestones,” he said. And because this year’s COP was all about implementing earlier agreements, Vitelli explained, much of the talk focused on process, legalese, and new tech solutions.

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The road to 2030

The past two years have brought devastating setbacks for global development goals including poverty reduction, gender equality, and climate action. GZERO Media will gather an expert panel of leaders from politics, the private sector, and international organizations to discuss how to get back on a path to greater peace and prosperity.

Join us on Thursday, December 15th at 11 am ET / 8 am PT / 5 pm CEST for a Global Stage livestream discussion, presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft. The conversation will be moderated by Julia Chatterley of CNN International, with Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media; Dr. Omnia El Omrani, Youth Envoy for COP27 and SDG Champion; Melissa Fleming, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Global Communications; Hindou Ibrahim, Co-Chair of the International Indigenous Peoples Forum on Climate Change; Khadija Mayman, Whitaker Peace & Development Initiative; and Brad Smith, President and Vice Chair of Microsoft.

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A Republican Led House Will be Tougher On US-China Relations | World In :60 | GZERO Media

US midterms have major global implications

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

Do the US midterms matter to the rest of the world?

Usually, no. This time around, absolutely, yes. In part because of China. A Republican-led House is going to be a lot tougher on US-China relations, export controls, Taiwan trips, capital controls, you name it, capital restrictions. And I suspect that Biden is not going to want to be outdone by the Republicans on this issue. So it will mean a hardening there. But also, just the fact that the US is going to be seen as so much more politically dysfunctional, efforts of investigations and impeachments and the rest against Biden. The administration and the fact that Biden has portrayed this as a loss of democracy makes it harder for the Americans to be consistent and coherent with allies around the world. It doesn't stop US leadership on issues like Russia-Ukraine, but it does actually matter.

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Italian PM Giorgia Meloni during a press conference in Rome.

LaPresse / Roberto Monaldo/Sipa via Reuters Connect

What We’re Watching: Meloni’s migrant moves, a cartel for rainforests, Haiti’s hope for fuel

Meloni draws a line on migrants

Since becoming Italy’s prime minister two weeks ago, Giorgia Meloni has pushed back against media attempts to portray her as a far-right nationalist euro-skeptic troublemaker. Aware that Italy needs cash from the EU, she’s presented her government as ready to negotiate with Brussels on outstanding issues in good faith. She’s made clear her support for Ukraine and NATO. Yet, she does stand ready to strike a harder line on migration policy as asylum-seekers continue to arrive by boat. (Italy has already received 85,000 migrants from across the Mediterranean this year.) On Sunday, two rescue ships that made port in Sicily were told that children and people with medical problems were allowed off the ships, but able-bodied men were not considered “vulnerable” and must remain on board. The ships were then ordered to leave, but their captains refused to budge. Rights groups and Italian opposition politicians say Italy’s decision violates EU law and the Geneva Convention. Meloni knows that many Italians expect a harder line on asylum policy and that greenlighting the entry of all migrants encourages more people to take the risky journey across the Med. This standoff is just the beginning of the Meloni government’s battle with EU officials and aid groups over an issue that provokes strong emotions on both sides.

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An image of Elon Musk is seen on a smartphone placed on printed Twitter logos.

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic

What We're Watching: The end of Twitter (as we know it), climate reparations at COP27

Quo vadis, Elon?

Elon Musk is taking disruption to a whole new level as the CEO of Twitter. After firing half of his staff on Friday, the world's richest man has lit another fire with plans for an $8 subscription service to get verified on the social media platform. Before Musk took over, the coveted blue check was free for public figures, companies, and journalists, but now technically anybody can get it. That raises the stakes for all sorts of misinformation mayhem, though the rollout has now been delayed until after Tuesday's US midterm elections. Major corporate advertisers responded to the brouhaha by pausing their ads, with Musk admitting a big drop in revenue, which he blamed on firms caving to activists' demands. So, what’s next? Ian Bremmer — who tussled with Musk over Russia-Ukraine just weeks before the gazillionaire bought Twitter — hinted that the platform's new boss might have a shorter tenure than disgraced former British PM Liz Truss, who famously lasted less time than a head of lettuce in her last days in office. For Russia, Bremmer noted, "buying a few thousand verified Twitter accounts at $8/pop to promote disinfo feels like a no-brainer."

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Annie Gugliotta & Jess Frampton

Hard Numbers: Wrong way on Paris Accords, Benz is “Audi” from Russia, surge of hate on “Island of Love,” radio silence in Venezuela

10.6: Whoops! To meet the Paris Accord climate commitments, the world still needs to reduce emissions by 43% over the next seven years. But according to the UN, we are actually on track to increase emissions by 10.6% during that period. The report comes two weeks ahead of the UN’s COP27 climate summit in Egypt.

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