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Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy awards a Ukrainian service member at a position near a frontline, in Donetsk region, Ukraine March 22, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Zelensky’s Bakhmut message, Rishi’s post-Brexit win, Trudeau’s take on Haiti, Ethiopia’s peace progress
Russia and Ukraine score points where they can
Volodymyr Zelensky visited frontline troops in war-ravaged Bakhmut , located in Ukraine’s eastern province of Donetsk, on Wednesday as Russian drones struck across the country. While planning for the trip was surely well underway before Vladimir Putin’s surprise stop in Russian-occupied Mariupol last weekend, the contrast underlined Zelenksy’s signal of defiance.
By appearing in Bakhmut very near the fighting, Zelensky reminded the world that, six months after Putin mobilized 300,000 new Russian soldiers for a deeper advance into Ukraine, even the small city of Bakhmut remains beyond their grasp.
In other war news, Russia has warned it will respond harshly to shipments from the UK to Ukraine of anti-tank munitions made from depleted uranium. Moscow claims this step adds an escalatory nuclear element to the conflict. In response, the UK insists the Russian position is propaganda , that the use of depleted uranium is common in anti-tank weapons, and that it contains nothing that can be used to make nuclear or radiological weapons. Finally, Russia has announced a plan to raise an additional $8 billion in revenue by changing the way oil profits are taxed .
All these stories underscore the reality that, while little has changed on the battlefield, Russians and Ukrainians are still looking for every small advantage they can gain in what looks increasingly like a war of attrition.
Has Brexit got “done” yet?
In a win for PM Rishi Sunak, the British House of Commons on Wednesday passed a reworked post-Brexit deal for Northern Ireland, which was agreed to last month with the European Commission.
Essentially, the proposal known as the Windsor Framework creates two lanes for trade: a faster-flowing green lane for goods transiting only between Britain and Northern Ireland and a red lane with more rigorous customs checks for goods bound for Ireland and elsewhere in the EU. It is unlikely to come into effect for several months as details are ironed out, officials say.
Still, despite the big margin of victory , more than 20 Tories – including Sunak’s two predecessors Liz Truss and Boris Johnson – voted against the measure, with Johnson saying it would mean that the UK won't be able to fully embrace the benefits of Brexit (what benefits, he didn’t say). It also signals that in the run-up to next year’s general election, Sunak will continue to deal with a vocal Euroskeptic wing within his party.
Meanwhile, six representatives from Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party also rejected the vote, suggesting that the DUP would not lift its boycott on the Northern Ireland legislature, which began almost a year ago. The lack of resolution on this front will make for awkward optics as President Joe Biden heads to Belfast next month to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement that ended the Troubles.
Trudeau’s take on Haiti
President Joe Biden heads north on Thursday for his first presidential visit to Canada, where he and PM Justin Trudeau are expected to discuss a variety of issues, from defense and immigration to trade and Ukraine (see our look at likely agenda items here ). But Biden is also expected to make some demands about … Haiti.
The situation in the Caribbean nation has deteriorated in recent months. Police have lost control to local gangs, and more than 200 Haitians were killed in the first half of March alone.
The Biden administration is reluctant to get more involved itself but wants Canada to take the lead in addressing the chaos in Haiti. Why Canada? The country has a long track record as a peacekeeper and has had prior involvement (for better or worse) in Haiti, making it an obvious choice from Washington’s perspective. An uptick in Haitian migrants seeking entry to the US and Canada raises that urgency further.
But Trudeau says that “outside intervention” can’t bring long-term stability to the country, and it’s hard to argue with the historical record on that. Meanwhile, many in Haiti worry that outsiders would merely prop up unelected acting PM Ariel Henry. And it didn’t help that Haiti’s largest newspaper ridiculed the recent deployment of two Canadian ships to patrol the coast.
All of this puts Trudeau in a tough spot: Biden wants him to be a
reliable security partner beyond Ukraine
, but the political fallout from a failed entanglement in Haiti could be disastrous for him. While the Canadian leader will
likely make a commitment
of some sort for Haiti, will it be enough to satisfy Biden or change the dynamics in Haiti itself?
*From trade and migration to defense, culture, and technology, the US and Canada need each other more than ever. To meet the moment, GZERO Media is launching GZERO North , a new weekly newsletter offering an insider’s guide to the very latest political, economic, and cultural news shaping both countries. Subscribe today !
Ethiopia, TPLF take steps in tenuous peace
The Ethiopian government is removing the Tigray People’s Liberation Front from its list of terrorist organizations, part of a peace deal with the rebel group signed last November. The decision moves the country closer to what observers hope is an enduring peace after a brutal two-year civil war that has claimed an estimated 600,000 lives .
The situation is very delicate. The agreements don’t include all of the various combatants and are vague about who controls certain disputed territories. And while all sides reportedly committed war crimes, many Tigrayans believe the deal doesn’t hold the Ethiopian federal government accountable. PM Abiy Ahmed’s resistance to a UN investigation inspires little hope.
Still, the momentum is towards peace, for now. Economic interests are part of the reason why. Ethiopia is in bad shape, as the country is wracked by famine, drought, and an estimated reconstruction price tag of $20 billion . A lasting peace would enable Ethiopia to reopen two-year-old talks with the IMF on a $26 billion loan restructuring plan , which was interrupted by the war. Still, with so much bad blood – will these incentives be enough to bind the former combatants to a durable peace? All parties must still tread very carefully …
Italian PM Giorgia Meloni during a press conference in Rome.
What We’re Watching: Meloni’s migrant moves, a cartel for rainforests, Haiti’s hope for fuel
Meloni draws a line on migrants
Since becoming Italy’s prime minister two weeks ago, Giorgia Meloni has pushed back against media attempts to portray her as a far-right nationalist euro-skeptic troublemaker. Aware that Italy needs cash from the EU, she’s presented her government as ready to negotiate with Brussels on outstanding issues in good faith. She’s made clear her support for Ukraine and NATO. Yet, she does stand ready to strike a harder line on migration policy as asylum-seekers continue to arrive by boat. (Italy has already received 85,000 migrants from across the Mediterranean this year.) On Sunday, two rescue ships that made port in Sicily were told that children and people with medical problems were allowed off the ships, but able-bodied men were not considered “vulnerable” and must remain on board. The ships were then ordered to leave, but their captains refused to budge . Rights groups and Italian opposition politicians say Italy’s decision violates EU law and the Geneva Convention. Meloni knows that many Italians expect a harder line on asylum policy and that greenlighting the entry of all migrants encourages more people to take the risky journey across the Med. This standoff is just the beginning of the Meloni government’s battle with EU officials and aid groups over an issue that provokes strong emotions on both sides.
Rainforest cartel!
Well if the world’s largest oil exporters can form a cartel to influence crude prices, why can’t the world’s largest rainforest superpowers do the same to control deforestation? That’s precisely the idea behind a plan by Brazil, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo to form a new “OPEC of Rainforests.” The three countries are home to more than half of the world’s total tropical forests, which environmentalists say are crucial “ lungs of the earth ” to mitigate the global warming effects of greenhouse gasses. The grouping would coordinate on limiting deforestation while also advancing proposals for developed countries to help finance conservation efforts in the Global South. This issue is a big one at COP27: Developing countries bear the brunt of climate change catastrophes while — with the exception of big polluters China and India — emitting relatively little. One major boon to the Rainforest OPEC idea was the election last week of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as president of Brazil. He has pledged to eliminate Amazon deforestation during his term. That’s a sharp contrast with outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro, whose pro-farmer policies caused a significant uptick in Amazon deforestation in recent years.
Gangster fuel politics rock Haiti
Jimmy Cherizier, a former cop who goes by the name "Barbecue" as Haiti's top gangster, says he's lifted the blockade on the main fuel terminal in the capital, Port-au-Prince. In theory, that should ease a severe shortage that has forced gas stations to close, hospitals to run only essential services amid a cholera outbreak, and banks and grocery stores to open just for a few hours. But there's a problem: While Barbecue — perhaps under pressure from fresh UN sanctions against him — claims that truckers are now free to get fuel, no one knows if any fuel has actually left the terminal or who really controls it. Neither the government nor police have yet to react to Barbecue's announcement, celebrated by some Haitians who now openly call him "Monsieur President." Meanwhile, the UN keeps dragging its feet on holding a vote on deploying foreign troops to end the crisis, which started two months ago when embattled PM Ariel Henry suddenly scrapped much-needed fuel subsidies that made prices skyrocket. And what about ordinary Haitians? They remain cut off from fuel and helpless to do anything amid the ongoing fight between Barbecue and Henry in the perennial failed state .
Hell in Haiti
The Caribbean state of Haiti has been in a persistent state of pandemonium for decades. Yet, what’s happening now on the island nation of 11 million reflects a profound new wave of
instability
that’s threatening to spill over into neighboring countries.
Thousands of Haitians have recently taken to the streets calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Ariel Henry, while large swaths of the capital, Port-au-Prince, are being ruled by rival gangs vying for power. Forget democracy or autocracy – lawlessness is rampant in Haiti.
Backstory
. Dictatorships have long ruled over Haiti, the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere. For almost 30 years until 1986, François and Jean-Claude Duvalier, the autocratic father-son duo known as
Papa Doc
and Baby Doc, led the country with an iron fist. Since then, the country has seen several military coups and a rotating door of leaders, many of whom have mismanaged the economy and lined their own pockets. As a result, poverty and crime plague Haiti, and there’s little hope for economic growth in a country whose
top export
in 2020 was … knitted T-shirts.
But things deteriorated further last summer after President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in a heist-like operation, giving rise to succession disputes and a leadership vacuum that left parliament mostly empty and paved the way for gangs to consolidate power.
Why now? The latest round of anti-government protests exploded after interim PM Henry announced he would slash $400 million in fuel subsidies. Many Haitians consider Henry’s tenure illegitimate because he was neither elected nor formally confirmed by the legislature. They are also fed up with his stalling tactics, having refused to set a date for new elections that have not been held since 2016.
So how bad is this situation? "It’s catastrophic," says Haiti’s former Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive (2009-2011). “I believe Haití has never experienced such chaos even during the 2010 earthquake,” he said. That cataclysmic event resulted in more than 200,000 deaths and decimated homes and infrastructure. (Bellerive was accused of corruption during his time in office.)
The king of Port-au-Prince . Haiti has just 12,800 active police officers, who are significantly outgunned and outnumbered by gang members. Arguably, the most powerful man in Port-au-Prince is a former cop turned gangster called Barbecue (his real name is Jimmy Chérizier). Some say Chérizier earned this nickname because he’s the son of a grilled chicken street vendor; others say it’s because he has a knack for burning alive those who cross him.
Barbecue heads one of Haiti’s most powerful gangs, G9, which rules large swaths of the capital, including coastal areas where shipments of food and fuel enter the country. As a result, wealthy business people who own warehouses and industrial parks have been forced to make deals with the devil to get goods flowing into the capital.
This dynamic, whereby the rich can afford to circumvent the chaos, has fed grievances over classism and inequality, deepening social fissures that gangs have exploited to accumulate more power. What’s more, many government officials have been accused of corruption and – along with elites – reportedly strike mutually beneficial deals with gang members.
The land of scarcity . Most recently, gangs have taken control of one of the country’s largest fuel terminals, exacerbating dire food and fuel shortages. (They already control the main arteries in and out of the capital, dictating what – and who – gets in and out.) Moreover, looting of food storage units is also widespread, leading last month to the loss of at least $6 million of relief assistance, including 2,000 tons of food, according to the World Food Programme.
The situation on the ground is dire, Bellerive says. “Most of the hospitals are closed, schools are yet to reopen, and supermarkets have very short opening times.” The international airport remains open, but “getting there or out of it could be risky.”
Moreover, lack of access to clean water – a scarcity in Haiti – has given rise to a cholera outbreak in a country already traumatized by a 2010 outbreak of the disease brought by UN peacekeepers that killed roughly 10,000. Meanwhile, neighboring countries like the Dominican Republic fear it could spread to their populations.
The timing of this explosion could barely be worse. “At the international level, Haití is clearly not a top priority,” Bellerive says, adding that the message received to date by Haitians has been “grow up and solve your problems.”
“Only because of the fear of massive emigration due to the collapse of the economy and the resurgence of cholera, some attention has recently been given” by the international community.
A plea for help . With the situation spiraling out of control and little hope for a domestic solution, PM Henry this week called for foreign troops to help quell the violence.
UN Secretary General António Guterres, for his part, supports sending in international armed forces, but Haitians on the street responded with a resolute … hell, no! Many Haitians despise the UN after its mission left the country in disgrace in 2017 with its peacekeepers having spread a deadly disease and reportedly raped and impregnated scores of Haitian women and girls .
Washington is unlikely to send in troops given that American voters – Democrats and Republicans – have little appetite for foreign interventions. Indeed, after Moise’s assassination last summer, Biden reiterated that “the idea of sending American forces to Haiti is not on the agenda.” Meanwhile, many Haitians also rallied this week against US boots on the ground, repudiating solutions that are imposed from outside.
There’s no sign that things will improve anytime soon – and Bellerive’s assessment is stark: Haiti has “gone beyond the fragile state characterization to become a chaotic state.”
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