Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
A protester wears a South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol mask while holding a representation of prison bars, during a rally calling for the impeachment of the South Korean President, who declared martial law, which was reversed hours later, in front of the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea, December 11, 2024.
South Korean prosecutors weigh arresting president, police retreat after standoff
In South Korea, President Yoon Suk Yeol’sparty hasturned on him, throwing their support behind attempts to impeach him after last week’s brief declaration of martial law. The flip came moments before Yoon delivered a fiery speech Thursday in which he justified his actions and vowed not to step down.
The lead prosecutor in South Korea’s criminal investigation into Yoon said Wednesday he would arrest the presidentif warranted. Also on Wednesday, police attempted to raid the Yongsan Presidential Office to secure evidence of Yoon’s actions and mindset before and during the martial law order but retreated after an hourslong standoff with presidential security.
Yoon survived an impeachment vote last weekend, but he faces another one on Saturday. The opposition Democratic Party, which controls the National Assembly but falls eight votes short of the bar for impeachment, is far more likely to succeed this time now that Yoon’s People Power Party is backing impeachment.
As GZERO previously reported, PPP’s leader had been pressuring Yoon to step down and avoid impeachment altogether, though perhaps not immediately. They wanted to get Yoon to publicly agree now to resign in, say, February, which would’ve pushed elections even further away, creating space for maneuvering. Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, who is the likely presidential candidate, has his own legal problems that could bar him from standing for office — if courts have enough time to process his case, that is. But with Yoon increasingly defiant, his party has decided to take matters into their own hands.
Can they really arrest the president? Ordinarily no. South Korea’s president enjoys immunity from prosecution — except in the case of insurrection charges. The case looks quite serious, and the former defense minister who allegedly encouraged the coup attempt tried to commit suicide following his arrest. He is now hospitalized, and the heads of the National Police Agency and Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency are also under arrest.
Looking ahead, Eurasia Group expert Jeremy Chan says Yoon’s impeachment is all but assured and that it “will be a positive development for the country because it will strip all presidential duties from Yoon and begin the process of turning the page on his presidency, which is likely to go down in history as the worst of its kind.”
Protesters hold placards during a candlelight vigil to condemn South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's surprise declarations of the failed martial law and to call for his resignation in Seoul, South Korea, December 5, 2024.
Could Yoon declare martial law again?
On Thursday, Han Dong-hoon, the leader of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s party, said he was opposed to impeaching Yoon because it would add to national confusion. By Friday, however, he had changed his mind.
“Should Yoon continue to serve as president,” Han said Friday, "I think there is great risk for extreme actions like this martial-law declaration to happen again."
Now, the clock is ticking: By Saturday, lawmakers will vote on Yoon’s future, and if two-thirds agree to impeach, he will be immediately suspended from office.
Han’s change of heart may be linked to reports that Yoon ordered Han’s arrest when he declared martial law on Tuesday. According to the National Intelligence Service deputy director, Yoon’s arrest list also included the leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, Lee Jae-myung, and three opposition lawmakers. But there is confusion about that, too, because the head of the intelligence service said the opposite — that Yoon had not ordered arrests of the lawmakers.
Details of the chaotic planning “are more damning than initially expected and indicate that South Korea’s political system may have narrowly escaped a far more destabilizing outcome," says Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan.
The opposition controls a majority but falls eight votes short of the two-thirds margin needed to impeach. If Han lends his support to the effort, then Yoon’s goose is likely cooked.
Meanwhile, amid fears that Yoon might try to declare martial law again, South Korea's acting defense chief says he would refuse any such orders.
Watch the streets. Many South Korean voters are outraged by Yoon’s actions, and a failure to remove him from office quickly is likely to cause the modest protests and strikes to grow dramatically. We have our eye on the reaction to the impeachment vote, and to Han’s reversal on fighting it.
South Korean protestors calling for the dismissal and impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol outside the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea, on December 4, 2024. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol briefly declared martial law on December 3, 2024, citing threats to democracy from opposition lawmakers he labeled as pro-North Korea. The decree, which restricted political activities, media, and strikes, was quickly overturned by the National Assembly. The event highlights rising tensions and Yoon’s declining authority following significant opposition victories in recent elections.
South Korean president faces impeachment, treason charges
Soon after South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol lifted his imposition of martial law early Wednesday, opposition parties filed an impeachment bill against him in the National Assembly. Now, the clock is ticking: By Saturday, lawmakers will vote on Yoon’s future, and if two-thirds agree to impeach, he will be immediately suspended from office.
Yoon’s defense minister, chief of staff, and top secretaries have all resigned, and the president faces calls to do the same. South Korea’s largest labor union is calling for mass strikes if Yoon refuses to step down.
The opposition Democratic Party is also drawing up treason charges against Yoon and his defense and interior ministers, which could land them behind bars if convicted. Two presidents from South Korea’s military-rule era, Chun Doo-hwan and Roh Tae-woo, were convicted of treason in 1996.
What happens now? Yoon could resign, but Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says that’s not his usual MO. “He’s a pugilist by nature. I don’t think he will go out without a fight,” he says, though “there is a slim chance that he can secure a deal with [opposition leader Lee Jae-myung] to go quietly and fade into the background in exchange for immunity for him and his wife.”
Still, Yoon’s ouster isn’t guaranteed. The opposition needs to peel off at least eight votes from Yoon’s party for the bill to pass, but given the bipartisan rejection of the coup attempt, that seems feasible.
If the bill passes, it then goes to the Constitutional Court, where at least six of nine justices need to confirm the impeachment before Yoon is removed, a process that could take weeks. There’s a wrinkle here as well, as currently the court has three vacant seats, so the decision needs to be unanimous – or the vote has to await three appointments.
We’re watching how Yoon plays the next few days, and the scramble for position ahead of elections likely to be held in the spring if Yoon is impeached.
Honduras' President Xiomara Castro delivers a speech during a ceremony to commemorate the National Flag Day, in Tegucigalpa, Honduras September 1, 2024.
Honduras rocked by presidential drug scandal
Honduran President Xiomara Castro faced calls to resign on Wednesday after journalists released a video of her brother-in-law negotiating payoffs with convicted drug traffickers. The man in the video, Carlos Zelaya, denied he knew he was taking drug money, but he and his son both resigned from their government positions after the revelation. Carlos’ brother, Manuel “Mel” Zelaya, is Castro’s husband and was president himself before being overthrown in a coup in 2009.
Just before the video broke, Honduras withdrew from its extradition treaty with the United States — not a coincidence. Dozens of accused Honduran drug traffickers have been extradited to face trial and imprisonment in the US, including Castro’s immediate predecessor, Juan Orlando Hernández,whom she accused of running a “narco-dictatorship.” How the tables have turned!
Eurasia Group regional expert Risa Grais-Targow says there’s more to it than simple self-preservation. Castro’s Honduras has been moving further away from the US, for example, by dropping its recognition of Taiwan in favor of the People’s Republic of China, and immediately siding with Venezuelan strongman president Nicolás Maduro in the aftermath of that country’s deeply controversial election.
“All of this pushes Honduras further into that club of countries — Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia — that has a much more contentious relationship with the US than other Latin American countries,” Grais-Targow explained.
FILE PHOTO: Spain's Socialist leader and Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, accompanied by his wife Begona Gomez, applauds as he addresses supporters during the general election, in Madrid, Spain, July 23, 2023.
Spain’s Sanchez surprises with a siesta
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez posted a letter on social media Wednesday announcing he would suspend all his public duties and take a few days to consider resigning. Earlier in the day, a judge opened an investigation into his wife, Begoña Gómez, over corruption surrounding government tenders and subsidies. The court did not give specific details of its allegations.
In his letter, Sánchez accuses “ultraconservative” interests of pursuing a cynical smear campaign against his wife because Spanish voters rejected them at the ballot box last year. Gómez holds no official position and is not a politician, and Sánchez firmly denied there was any case for the court.
Nonetheless, he wrote that his love for her made him question whether it was all worth it. “I sincerely don’t know,” he wrote. “This attack is unprecedented, so serious and so vulgar that I must stop and reflect with my wife.”
Subordinate ministers and political allies are publicly backing Sánchez’s decision, but maybe not purely out of solidarity. The PM is a notorious risk-taker who managed to hold on to power against the odds last year by calling a snap election and then cobbling together a minority coalition. And wouldn’t you know it, there’s a crucial regional election on May 12 in wealthy, often separatist-leaning Catalonia.
A bit of sympathy for the PM’s wife certainly can’t hurt, can it?
Sánchez said he will announce his decision by Monday, April 29.
Haiti's Prime Minister Ariel Henry speaks while addressing the nation, at an unidentified location on a date given as March 11, 2024, in this screengrab obtained from a handout video.
Haiti’s embattled prime minister resigns amid chaos
Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry announced his resignation overnight amid mounting international pressure for him to step down. The move follows weeks of civil unrest and violence by rival gangs in the Caribbean country.
Henry said he would turn over power to a transitional council made up of political leaders, the private sector, civil society, and a religious representative. The handover marks the end of Henry’s unelected term as Haiti’s acting president, a post he has held since President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in 2021.
The precise membership of the transitional council has not been named, but the gangs that now control some 80% of Port-au-Prince, the capital, are now pushing to be included in the political solution. So is convicted drug trafficker Guy Philippe, who says he can bridge between the gangs and ordinary society.
The international community, however, is not eager to invite either to the table and is setting its hopes on a Kenyan-led intervention force to help the Haitian police win back control of the streets. Washington announced it would commit another $100 million to the force and $33 million in humanitarian aid, bringing total US pledges to $333 million.