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People take cover from gunfire near the National Palace, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti March 21, 2024.
Haitians flee capital en masse
Intense violence in Port-au-Prince led over 33,000 Haitians to flee the city in the last two weeks alone, according to the United Nations.
Gangs attacked two specialized police bases in Port-au-Prince on Saturday and continue to make advances. Over 2,500 people have been killed in the fighting this year. Violence has kept the air and seaports shuttered all month, making it difficult for aid organizations to bring supplies in. The World Food Programme now says Haiti faces a record level of food insecurity.
Small signs of hope. The transitional council meant to replace outgoing Prime Minister Ariel Henry saw a key breakthrough last week when former Senator Jean-Charles Moïse reversed his position and accepted a seat. All seven voting members are now in place, and could name a president as soon as next week.
Progress toward setting up a government could also remove impediments to the Kenyan-led intervention force that has been stalled and delayed for months. We’re watching for who ends up in charge, and whether Haitians buy into this unelected government.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks beside Guyana President Irfaan Ali and Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness as they attend an emergency meeting on Haiti at the Conference of Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) in Kingston, Jamaica, March 11, 2024.
Scrambling for a plan for Haiti
American, Canadian, French, and Caribbean diplomats are in Jamaica this week trying to chart a security plan for Haiti, where a gang leader is poised to control the country’s streets, but so far Haitians can’t agree on a plan.
The Americans and Canadians brought their checkbooks, but neither were likely to send troops to establish order.
On Monday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken committed to spend $100 million more on a security force after the politics are worked out. On Tuesday, Haiti's unelected prime minister, Ariel Henry, agreed to step down, clearing the way for a new governing body.
Kenya, which is ready to send a police force to re-establish order, has said it will not do so unless there is a functioning government.
This has set the stage for wrangling over who will constitute that government, but on Wednesday, several key Haitian political figures said they would not participate, setting the stage for the violence to continue.
Last year, Joe Biden’s government asked Canada to send troops to help stabilize Haiti, but Justin Trudeau declined, citing capacity issues and the mixed results of previous interventions. Canada is instead ready to send Mounties to act as trainers, but none of that can happen until Haitians agree.A woman with a gunshot wound is transported by two men on a motorcycle as Haiti remains in state of emergency due to the violence, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti March 9, 2024.
Haitian Interior Ministry torched in weekend violence
Regional leaders are meeting Monday in Jamaica to discuss Haiti’s political crisis after intense violence in Port-au-Prince saw gangs burn down the country’s Interior Ministry this weekend. They also attacked police stations near the National Palace in offensives that have paralyzed the country. The US Embassy has evacuated non-essential staff.
Washington is pushing for a transitional council to replace unpopular Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who is stuck outside Haiti. He left for Nairobi on Feb. 25 to try to salvage a multinational intervention force to be led by Kenya. The leader of the largest gang coalition, Jimmy Chérizier (aka Barbecue), used Henry’s absence as an opportunity to play for power.
What happens now? Guyanese President Irfaan Ali, the president of regional bloc CARICOM, says he is in talks with Henry and other Haitian power players.
We expect Henry to step down – without support from Haitians, the US, or regional leaders, how can he hang on?
The tricky question is who comes next. Guy Philippe, a convicted drug trafficker who led the 2004 coup, is building support for his “National Awakening” movement, and some Haitians say he is in a position to negotiate with the gangs. But considering he’s fresh out of a US prison, don’t expect Washington to back him.