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NATO Summit: Biden's uncertain future worries US allies
NATO Summit: US allies focus on Biden's uncertain political future | World In :60

NATO Summit: Biden's uncertain future worries US allies

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

What are you watching for at the NATO summit?

Well, first and foremost, it's how all of these allies are responding to a very real political crisis in the United States. US, of course, the country they rely on for leading NATO, by far the biggest military power in the world, their principal ally. And they now know that the likelihood that Biden is going to be able to win, is a lot lower than it was the last time they saw him. And they've been seeing him. They saw him at the G7. They saw him in Normandy. They saw him, you know, at the United Nations and some in bunch of bilats and and everyone I've spoken to, says that they're not all confident that he can win. They certainly don't think he can serve out four more years. And they're deeply worried, especially because what a Trump administration might mean for them, with the exception of Viktor Orbán, almost all the NATO allies are very worried. They know that NATO, the EU, the war in Ukraine, all of that much more uncertain if Trump were to come back as president. So that's what I'm watching for and see how that plays out.

How will the UK's new PM, Keir Starmer, lead Britain?

Economically, not all that different. He's focused unusually for labor, focused on a pro-growth policy. He's promised that he isn't going to raise the major taxes like income tax and VAT. And so, he will probably find some more money in things like inheritance tax, he’s going to try to get more private sector investment into the economy. Certainly, wants to have a consistent policy on Ukraine, consistent policy on the United States as the previous conservative governments. Big change will be tried to reestablish stronger relations with the European Union and particularly Ursula von der Leyen, expected to get the nod for another five years running the EU. Keir Starmer spent a lot of personal time working on that over the past months.

As a Russian missile struck a children's hospital in Kyiv is there still no end in sight for the war in Ukraine?

No, no, there's no end in sight. in fact, while that was happening, Narendra Modi, the Indian PM was being quite friendly in Moscow on his visit with Putin. This is a partner of the United States. Putin feels like right now, especially if Trump is elected that his bet on this invasion in Ukraine will work out well for him. And that is not what NATO allies want Putin to be thinking right now. There's been success in getting them a lot of support, the Ukrainians, over the course of the last six months, and certainly they're going to have more money over the next year. But longer term, there's a huge question about how that plays out. And Putin is showing impunity right at the beginning of the NATO summit by sending all those missiles at civilian targets, including sick kids in Ukraine. Not a surprise. but still pretty sickening.

Ian Explains: How political chaos in the UK, France, & Canada impacts the US
How political chaos in the UK, France, & Canada impacts the US | Ian Bremmer Explains | GZERO World

Ian Explains: How political chaos in the UK, France, & Canada impacts the US

Big political changes are coming in Western democracies, is the US ready to deal with the fallout? Voters in the United Kingdom and France will head to the polls in the coming weeks after UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and French President Emmanuel Macron called snap national elections. Both political gambles could have a huge impact on everything from the West’s collective ability to deal with climate change to the AI revolution and countering China’s growing influence.

On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the tumultuous landscapes of French and British politics right now, with an eye on upcoming elections in Canada and the United States.

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FILE PHOTO: Philippine Navy welcomes the arrival of Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force ship for a two-day goodwill visit upon its arrival at the South Harbor in Metro Manila, Philippines April 26, 2018.

REUTERS/Romeo Ranoco

Japan looks south to bolster its security

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is in Manila Friday for a summit with Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. as Tokyo attempts to draw closer to partners in Southeast Asia to hedge against China.

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India-Canada standoff heats up while US seeks a compromise
India-Canada standoff heats up while US seeks a compromise | Quick Take | GZERO Media

India-Canada standoff heats up while US seeks a compromise

Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here. And a Quick Take to kick off your week.

India and Canada. Not the two countries that you expected to be getting into a big public fight. But that is exactly where we are. And the Americans are uncomfortable. And sort of in the middle of it, though I'm about clearly on Canada's side. Give you a little background.

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The Pentagon is seen from the air in Washington, U.S., March 3, 2022, more than a week after Russia invaded Ukraine.

REUTERS/Joshua Roberts

What We’re Watching: Suspected US intel leaks, peace talks for Yemen, Lula talks trade with Xi

A murky document mystery

Some months ago, mysterious documents began showing up on websites used mainly by online gamers that appear to reveal top-secret US government information on the war in Ukraine and other sensitive topics. In particular, they include what seem to be maps of Ukrainian air defenses and an analysis of a secret plan by US ally South Korea to covertly deliver 330,000 rounds of ammunition to Ukraine to boost its widely expected spring counteroffensive.

Once noticed, copies of the documents made their way into mainstream media and triggered investigations by the Pentagon and the US Justice Department over possible leaks. Ukrainian officials say the documents may have come from Russian spies. Others say someone inside the US intel community must have leaked them. Some experts warn the documents may be fakes.

Given the stakes for Ukraine and for US relations with allies, this isn’t a story anyone should ignore. But the most important questions – Who did this? Why? Are the documents real? Will they change the war? If so, how? – can’t yet be answered. And like the mystery surrounding the explosion that damaged the Nord Stream pipeline last September, they may never be answered. We’ll keep watching.

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US & NATO will draw a hard line on Russian aggression in Ukraine – Ian Bremmer
Expect the US and allies to draw a hard line on Ukraine – Ian Bremmer | Global Stage | GZERO Media

US & NATO will draw a hard line on Russian aggression in Ukraine – Ian Bremmer

In recent years, the US has often shown an “unwillingness” to do much in response to states and non-state actors taking swings at values-based norms, GZERO President Ian Bremmer said recently at the Munich Security Conference. We saw that when the US failed to enforce its "red line" in Syria in 2013, when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, as well as when the military junta stole power in Myanmar a year ago, Bremmer says. So will Ukraine be any different? Bremmer thinks it will: it seems there’s been “a decision by the United States and all of its allies that this line is too far. Enough!”

Bremmer spoke with moderator David Sanger in GZERO Media's Global Stage livestream discussion at the Munich Security Conference.

Can Biden gain back the trust of US allies?
Ian Bremmer Explains: Can Biden Gain Back the Trust of US Allies? | GZERO World

Can Biden gain back the trust of US allies?

After four long years of Donald Trump's bull-in-a-china-shop approach to foreign policy, Joe Biden says: America is back. But was it actually true? Some major foreign policy snafus so far have thrown America's renewed global standing into question. The French government had such high hopes for the Biden folks that AUKUS felt like such a betrayal. A botched US withdrawal from Afghanistan facilitated the near-instant Taliban takeover after 20 years of American occupation. The next true test to America's global standing will be COP26 , the most consequential climate summit since Paris in 2015, because leaders are now looking to avoid environmental catastrophe. China, the world's largest carbon emitter, must be on board. Ian Bremmer explores the question: is America's credibility irreparably damaged no matter what Biden, or any future president, says or does?

Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Biden's rocky start on foreign policy

US foreign policy has an identity crisis — journalist Robin Wright
US Foreign Policy Has an Identity Crisis — Journalist Robin Wright | GZERO World

US foreign policy has an identity crisis — journalist Robin Wright

US foreign policy used to be all about defending America and promoting democracy everywhere — sort of. But now, The New Yorker's Robin Wright says "we are not quite so sure about what it is we want." The priority is clearly China, but for Wright US allies are still looking for some direction on what exactly America wants to do to counter the Chinese. Watch her interview with Ian Bremmer on the latest episode of GZERO World.

Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Biden's rocky start on foreign policy

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