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We should not underestimate Putin, says NATO’s Benedetta Berti | Global Stage | GZERO Media

We should not underestimate Putin, says NATO’s Benedetta Berti

The war in Ukraine may not have gone the way Vladimir Putin expected, but his objectives remain the same.

“I don’t think we underestimated Russia’s strategy and what they were planning in Ukraine … If anything, maybe at the beginning we had overestimated the Russians’ military capabilities,” says Benedetta Berti, NATO’s policy planning chief, during a Global Stage livestream conversation hosted by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft at the Munich Security Conference.

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Russian service members drive tanks during drills held by the armed forces in the Rostov region, Russia.

REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov

What We’re Watching: Launch of Russian offensive, China-Iran talks, Macron’s midnight deadline

The Russian offensive has begun

After much speculation about Russia’s next military steps, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said Monday that Russia has begun a new offensive in Ukraine. "We see how they are sending more troops, more weapons, more capabilities,” he said during a press conference in Brussels. Russia’s immediate goal, according to Eurasia Group analysis, is to gradually overwhelm outnumbered Ukrainian forces and take full control of the so-called Donbas region of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, two of the Ukrainian regions Russia annexed last September. The early timing of this new escalation suggests Russia hopes to make significant gains before powerful new weapons sent by the West arrive in Ukraine. It’s also possible that Ukrainian forces will respond to Russia’s incremental escalation by trying not only to repel Russian attacks but to advance south to cut the land bridge Russian forces established last year between the Donbas region and Crimea. The bottom line: This new Russian offensive will offer the first true test of military strength since Moscow mobilized 300,000 more troops last fall. The world will learn a lot about whether the Russian army has greatly improved its training, weaponry, and ability to coordinate a large-scale operation.

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Former Finnish PM On His Eastern Neighbor | Alexander Stubb | Global Stage | GZERO Media

Putin's tragic genius: war crimes & isolated Russia

In a Global Stage delegate interview, on the ground in Davos, Ian Bremmer speaks to an old friend of the show, former Finnish PM Alexander Stubb. Stubb explains why Crimea is crucial for Ukraine's conception of "victory" against Russia and why Finland views its eastern neighbor with suspicion.

“If you have a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia, you always have be concerned because, as we can see, Russia is quite unpredictable,” he explains.

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The Crimea Problem | GZERO Media

The Crimea problem

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here. And a Quick Take to start off your week. Just back from Davos in New York City, rainy and cold, and Russia, Ukraine is once again in the headlines. It is closing in on a year since the invasion started on February 24th, or for those of you really keeping accurate score, closing in on a decade since the Russians illegally annexed Crimea and sent their little green men in Southeast Ukraine. The Russians and Ukrainians certainly feel like they've been fighting for a decade, but the West recognized it much more recently. Since February 24th, and certainly very clear to me over the last week, we have seen almost consistent escalation from all sides involved, from, of course, the Ukrainians in trying to throw everything they can at getting the Russians out of the territory, at the Russians, from bringing more troops into the field and attacking civilians and broadening their efforts to in inflict pain upon the Ukrainians as their land war has met with significant challenge.

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New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern throws in the towel
Gabrielle Debinski

What We’re Watching: Ardern's shock exit, sights on Crimea, Bibi’s budding crisis, US debt ceiling chaos

New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern throws in the towel

In a shock announcement on Thursday, New Zealand’s PM Jacinda Ardern said she no longer has “enough in the tank” to continue in the top job and will step down on Feb. 7. Ardern, a darling of the center-left who in 2017 became the world’s youngest female head of government, led the nation of 5 million through a host of challenges in recent years, including the horrific massacre at two Christchurch mosques, the pandemic, and a volcanic eruption on Whakaari/White Island that killed 22 people. Like much of the developed world, New Zealand is currently in the throes of an inflationary crisis that’s forced the central bank to aggressively raise interest rates. What’s more, as the cost of living crunch hurts ordinary New Zealanders, Ardern’s Labour Party is falling behind the center-right National Party in the polls ahead of the next general election in Oct. 2023. It’s unclear who will replace her, but Ardern’s deputy, Grant Robertson, already said he does not want the gig. In a rare act of political civility – and yet another reason why we should all move to New Zealand – Ardern’s rival, Christopher Luxon, head of the National Party, thanked Ardern for her service and for giving her all to a "demanding job."
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Putin’s War Crimes Solidify West’s Military Support for Ukraine | Alexander Stubb | GZERO World

Putin’s war crimes solidify West’s military support for Ukraine

For former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb, there is no such thing as a partial victory for the Ukrainians. “Ukraine needs to push as far as it possibly can,” Stubb tells Ian Bremmer on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

And at a time when some might be feeling "war fatigue," it seems that Putin's lack of regard for human rights never fails to rally the cause against him. "As long as he continues this, I think the support of the West and the rest of the world is going to be steadfast," Stubb says.

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Russian State-Sponsored Terrorism | Quick Take | GZERO Media

Russian attacks on Ukraine are state-sponsored terrorism

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here. A Quick Take to kick off your week, and of course we are still talking about the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Almost eight months now of since the initial invasion of Russia into Ukraine. The war continues to get worse. There's more hits on Ukraine. 30% of the country's electricity has been disrupted. More hits on cities focused on civilian casualties over the last week. These are the attacks that we've seen across the country by mostly missile and drone attacks by the Russians. Not even trying to say that these are military targets anymore. It's really state-sponsored terror by the Russian government.

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Putin Bombs Ukraine | Quick Take | GZERO Media

Putin bombs Ukraine

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here. A happy Monday to you. A Quick Take, again, turning to the war in Russia. Lots going on, almost all of it escalatory at this point. Most recent state of play, a spectacular attack by the Ukrainians on the Kerch Bridge, the Crimea bridge that was said by Putin to be impregnable, can't possibly be able to attack it. It was providing a lot of supply chain, military supply chain from Russia sourcing capabilities material into Crimea and the rest of Ukraine, and suddenly significantly disrupted by a Ukrainian truck bomb.

That led Putin to respond in the early hours today, rush hour in Ukraine. Indiscriminate attacks against all of Ukraine's major cities. Nearly 100 bombs, civilian targets, killing lots of Ukrainians. An act of state terrorism on the part of Russia. On the one hand, absolutely horrifying that the Ukrainians are living through the kind of attacks in recent years that we've only seen in Aleppo in Syria, in Grozny, by the Russians in early post-Soviet days, and now seeing it across Ukraine.

War crimes, yet again. Acting with impunity in terms of Russia's complete indifference to how the rest of the world sees him and reacts to him. Having said all of that, part of the reason why we're seeing state terrorism from Putin is because he does not have conventional capabilities to respond to the Ukrainian counter offensive, which continues to eat up territory, Ukrainian territory, that they are retaking from the Russian occupation, significantly in Kherson which is north of Crimea, but if the Ukrainians are able to take it, that would disrupt yet another key supply chain of Russia to Crimea.

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