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The Pentagon is seen from the air in Washington, U.S., March 3, 2022, more than a week after Russia invaded Ukraine.
What We’re Watching: Suspected US intel leaks, peace talks for Yemen, Lula talks trade with Xi
A murky document mystery
Some months ago, mysterious documents began showing up on websites used mainly by online gamers that appear to reveal top-secret US government information on the war in Ukraine and other sensitive topics. In particular, they include what seem to be maps of Ukrainian air defenses and an analysis of a secret plan by US ally South Korea to covertly deliver 330,000 rounds of ammunition to Ukraine to boost its widely expected spring counteroffensive.
Once noticed, copies of the documents made their way into mainstream media and triggered investigations by the Pentagon and the US Justice Department over possible leaks. Ukrainian officials say the documents may have come from Russian spies. Others say someone inside the US intel community must have leaked them. Some experts warn the documents may be fakes.
Given the stakes for Ukraine and for US relations with allies, this isn’t a story anyone should ignore. But the most important questions – Who did this? Why? Are the documents real? Will they change the war? If so, how? – can’t yet be answered. And like the mystery surrounding the explosion that damaged the Nord Stream pipeline last September, they may never be answered. We’ll keep watching.
Will peace finally come to Yemen?
A Saudi delegation is visiting Sanaa, Yemen’s capital, for talks with Iran-backed Houthi rebels in hopes of ending the nine-year conflict that’s turned Yemen into one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
The war began in 2014 when Houthis, who are Shiite, overthrew the Saudi-backed Sunni government and took over the capital. Violence has since plagued the country, and the conflict has broadly been seen as a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Fighting has also spilled over into Saudi territory, where rebels have targeted the kingdom’s oil infrastructure.
The talks – mediated by Oman – come after both sides agreed last month to renew a previously expired ceasefire. Still, several thorny issues remain, including how to secure oil fields in rebel-held areas, as well as the easing of blockades on Sanaa’s airport (by the Saudis) and Red Sea ports (by Houthis) that are obstructing the flow of humanitarian aid to 21.6 million people.
Hopes of a resolution in Yemen come after Tehran and Riyadh recently agreed to renew diplomatic ties after a seven-year rupture. Expectations of a cessation of hostilities, however, have been raised and dashed in the past.
Lula to talk trade in China
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva is heading to China on Tuesday for a four-day summit. The trip was originally planned for March but was postponed after Lula contracted pneumonia.
Lula lands in Shanghai before heading to Beijing, where he’ll meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The Brazilian leader is being accompanied by more than 250 business leaders, nearly a third of whom belong to Brazil’s agricultural sector. His entourage tells us that these meetings will be about trade, trade, and more trade. Lula will also invite President Xi to Brazil to view projects for which Brazil is seeking Chinese investment.
After Lula’s last visit to Beijing in 2009, China became Brazil’s top trading partner, causing demand for its soybeans, iron ore, and oil to skyrocket and fueling an economic boom for Brazil. By 2021, Brazil was China’s largest destination for foreign direct investment. Now in his third term, Lula is facing a tough economic and political landscape and hopes to revive his stagnating economy by diversifying Brazil’s trade relationship with China.
The two men will also discuss the war in Ukraine, with Lula believing he can help negotiate peace.
But Brazil is already navigating tensions between the US and China. In February, Lula met with US President Joe Biden to affirm his relationship with Brazil’s most important regional security partner. Meanwhile, China is hoping that by strengthening its relationship with Brazil it can boost its influence in Latin America and weaken Brazil’s ties to the US. The meetings come just days after China and Brazil agreed to ditch the US dollar and exchange their currencies directly. So in China, Lula must tread carefully to stay in both Biden's and Xi’s good graces.
People search for survivors following an earthquake in Iskenderun, Turkey.
The politics of recovery in Syria and Turkey
As the death toll mounts from Monday’s 7.8-magnitude earthquake, rescue efforts are intensifying in southern Turkey and northern Syria, with thousands of international aid workers flying in to assist.
The rescue effort, however, is anything but smooth sailing, not least because of frigid weather conditions. (Aid workers say that snow makes debris heavier and increases the risk of more building collapses.) But there are also political factors obstructing the recovery work.
The view from Syria. Most of Syria is now back under the control of President Bashar Assad, who stands accused by the West of using chemical weapons on his own people at least nine times since the civil war broke out in 2011.
Northern Syria, however, is a lawless terrain: The northeast is held by US-backed Kurdish forces that the Pentagon armed in recent years to fight the Assad regime, while the country’s northwest, which has borne the brunt of the earthquake, is held by Turkey as well as a ragtag group of militant outfits. The US, for its part, still has 900 troops on the ground in the north.
Indeed, turf wars and ongoing aerial attacks make a coordinated aid response in Syria almost impossible. While the European Union announced on Wednesday a €3.5 million ($3.7 million) emergency humanitarian package for Syria, it remains unclear how this will be distributed, particularly as the Assad regime demands that all assistance pass through Damascus. This suggests the regime won’t allow deliveries to opposition forces in the north, which Brussels cannot accept. On Thursday, six UN aid trucks entered northwestern Syria bringing in “shelter items ... including blankets and hygiene kits” but no food.
Nodding to Damascus’ broad obstructionism, a spokesperson for the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said on Wednesday: “Our trucks are ready and the willingness is there. We are just waiting for the access to do it.”
The view from Turkey. While Turkey has a sprawling state apparatus capable of coordinating a unified response, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been accused of failing to get operations off the ground fast enough. Erdogan, for his part, condemned the opposition for using the tragedy to score political points and said it is not possible to prepare for such extreme events. But many Turks are asking what happened to the billions of lire raised under a national earthquake levy introduced after the devastating quake in İzmit in 1999 that killed more than 17,000 people.
In a sign that Erdogan is clearly concerned about incoming criticism, Ankara limited access to Twitter after the platform was used to vent frustration with the government’s recovery effort, though access has since been restored. Clamping down on detractors is more important now than ever for Erdogan, who is facing a tough reelection battle on May 14.
US Afghanistan withdrawal: a “digital Dunkirk”
Could the US have done a better job at getting out of Afghanistan?
Certainly, says former US marine and CIA officer Elliot Ackerman, who recalls how calls for an evacuation plan fell on deaf ears in the Pentagon and the White House. Expediting the Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) program for Afghan allies could have been handled better as well.
The problem, he tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, is that America thought it'd have a bit of time before the Taliban took over. That was the wrong call.
And now it's much harder to get Afghans out with no presence or networks inside the country.
Watch the GZERO World episode: The fallout from US Afghanistan withdrawal: a Marine's perspective
- Afghanistan: Four key failures - GZERO Media ›
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- The Graphic Truth: Who controls Afghanistan? - GZERO Media ›
China is considering cutting off the export of rare earths to the US. What are they, and why does this matter for everything from fighter jets to the device you're reading on right now?
China takes a “rare” swipe at the US
China now controls more than 80 percent of the world's supply of something that surrounds you all day, every day. And, according to the Financial Times [paywall], Beijing is threatening to cut the supply of that thing to the US. What are we talking about? Rare earths metals.
What are rare earth metals and why should you care about them? Rare earth metals are critical for manufacturing just about every electronic device that you, and all of the world's modern militaries, use every day. They're essential for making screens, hard drives, and precision glass.
Without rare earths, you can't use a cell phone, save a document, watch a Netflix series, drive a new car, take a digital photograph, fly a drone, target a missile, or build a fighter jet. You wouldn't even be able to read Signal — though we promise to make hard copies available if it comes to that.
It just so happens that China has a near-monopoly on the business of refining these metals for use in manufacturing. Since the 1990s, when environmental regulations in the US made it cheaper to refine rare earths in China, Beijing's share of the industry has risen from about 30 percent to more than 80 percent today. With that kind of market power, China can throw its weight around, and the US-China rivalry over technology creates a powerful incentive to do just that.
What is China threatening? According to the Financial Times scoop, China is conducting a fresh study to determine whether cutting off rare earths exports to the US would cripple the US defense industry, which relies on the stuff to make all of its key weapons systems. A single F-35 fighter jet, for example, contains close to 1,000 pounds of rare earths metals, according to a US congressional report.
The Pentagon knows all this, right? Of course. For years, Pentagon planners have been looking for ways to secure more access to rare earths mines, in particular by making inroads in southern African countries that are rich in reserves. And the Trump administration last year issued an emergency order to boost rare earths production in the US.
But the challenge isn't so much in finding rare earths — which are, despite their name, present all over the world, including in the US. It's extracting them and then refining them that costs and pollutes a lot. Private investors haven't been able to make it profitable under US rules, so US agencies and lawmakers have explored subsidizing production or making regulatory changes that make more rare earths available for refining.
But for a Biden administration that has put environmental protection at the center of its agenda, this could mean a tough tradeoff: protect the defense industry and Silicon Valley, or protect the environment.
Would China really do this? Cutting off rare earth supplies to the US would be a huge blow to the US defense industry, and could also complicate things for Silicon Valley, which relies on Chinese rare earths as well — though less so because so much of their manufacturing is actually in China at the moment.
Washington would almost certainly respond with severe sanctions or export limitations of its own. The US has already moved to limit China's ability to buy semiconductors, an area where China is almost entirely dependent on the outside world, in particular on Taiwan.
- Why John Kerry’s trip to China matters for all of us - GZERO Media ›
- The future of the Chinese Communist Party - GZERO Media ›
- Will China's tech sector be held back? - GZERO Media ›
- China and US economic interdependence hasn't lessened - GZERO Media ›
- China and US economic interdependence hasn't lessened - GZERO Media ›
Pentagon criticizes Chinese military drills in disputed South China Sea
WASHINGTON (REUTERS) - The US Defence Department expressed concern on Thursday (July 2) about China holding military exercises in the South China Sea, saying the move will further destabilise the situation in the disputed waters.
What We're Watching: French anti-racism protests, Sudan-Ethiopia border dispute, Pentagon checks Trump
French protests over racial injustice: The George Floyd protests in the United States have sparked solidarity demonstrations around the world, with people flocking to US embassies in Berlin, London and elsewhere to express their outrage. But they have also inspired other countries to reexamine racial justice within their own societies. In France, where street demonstrations are practically a national pastime, thousands of people have gathered in support of the family of Adama Traoré, a 24-year old black man who died in police custody back in 2016. At least 20,000 Parisians demonstrated Wednesday, despite coronavirus bans on public gatherings. Protesters adopted similar language to the Floyd protests, demanding accountability for the officers who violently pinned down Traoré during a dispute over an identity check, leading to his death. Renewed focus on this case, which has become a potent symbol of police brutality in France, comes as coronavirus lockdowns have recently stoked tensions between the police and the mostly-minority residents of Paris' banlieues (low-income suburbs).
Sudan's new defense minister walks into a firestorm: Sudan has sworn in a new defense minister, just days after Sudanese forces clashed with militias from neighboring Ethiopia, sparking a diplomatic standoff between the two states. The two countries have long been locked in a bitter border dispute that's given rise to sporadic bursts of violence. More than 1,700 Ethiopians live on Sudanese farmland, a source of tension that the two sides had hoped to settle as part of a border demarcation process to be completed in March 2021. But tensions have resurfaced during thorny negotiations over Ethiopia's planned construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The hydropower project, which would draw waters from the Nile, is largely opposed by both Egypt and Sudan, which are downstream from Addis Ababa.
The Pentagon checks Trump: President Trump has repeatedly threatened to deploy the US military to quell unrest in American cities, after 10-days of both peaceful anti-racism protests and some riots. In recent days, however, pushback against the president's proposal has come from a powerful source: the Pentagon itself. After Trump floated using the Insurrection Act, which allows the US president to use active-duty troops domestically, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper distanced himself from his boss, saying that such a move would be misguided as anything but a far-off last resort – a position also supported by the current chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and many of the nation's governors. Meanwhile, Esper's predecessor, retired general Jim Mattis, who has refrained from weighing in on politics since leaving the Pentagon 18-months ago, penned a searing op-ed Wednesday, where he warned that calling in US troops would cause "chaos" and accused President Trump of trying "to divide us." The ensuing debate over the army's proper role in American politics has exposed a growing rift between the White House and the Pentagon, as an increasing number of armed forces personnel accuse the president of politicizing the military.
China working on third aircraft carrier
HONG KONG/BEIJING • Construction of China's first full-sized aircraft carrier is well under way, according to satellite images obtained and analysed by a US think-tank.
All the President's Generals
President Trump used to love a man in uniform but these days he's soured on his generals. This week, Ian looks at how the President's cooling relationship with his top brass has affected U.S. foreign policy and then he'll talk to Michèle Flournoy, who was the highest-ranking woman at the Pentagon. And on Puppet Regime we find out what keeps Trump up at night.