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An Ethiopian family in search of food from fleeing remote villages where wells have dried up due to drought arrives in Korom, northeast Ethiopia.
Hard Numbers: Ethiopia is starving, US allies killed, Earth’s near miss, Paris parking drama, Myorkas impeachment vote
3,000,000: At least three million Ethiopians are at acute risk of hunger in the north of the country, where the federal government and ethnic Tigrayan separatists fought a grinding war from 2020 to 2022. The UK government says it is setting aside £100 million ($125.4 million) to aid people at risk of starvation in the region.
6: A drone attack early Monday killed six Kurdish fighters allied to the US on a military base housing US troops in Syria. No US deaths or injuries were reported, and the Biden administration says it will continue to target Iranian proxies in the region.
1,700,000: Did you feel that impending sense of doom over the weekend? It wasn’t (only) the Sunday Scaries. A skyscraper-sized meteorite is hurtling toward Earth and will come within just 1.7 million miles of our little blue marble on Friday. Scientists say we’ll be fine … but the asteroid is swinging back around in 2032.
18: The good people of Paris have voted to triple parking fees for SUVs, which will now run you €18 ($19.50) an hour in the city center and €12 further out. Mayor Anne Hidalgo celebrated the measure as an environmentalist victory – but at least one woman in the fashionable 8th arrondissement told Voice of America she’s sick of the mayor’s “diktats.”
2: The House will vote on whether to impeach Alejandro N. Mayorkas, the homeland security secretary, on charges that he has willfully refused to enforce border laws and breached the public trust. The vote marks an escalation of Republicans’ efforts to attack President Joe Biden and Democrats over immigration. Because of the GOP's thin majority, they can only afford to lose 2 lawmakers, but If they succeed, Mayorkas would become the only sitting cabinet member to be impeached in American history.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at Trump Tower, after his indictment by a Manhattan grand jury following a probe into hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels, in New York City, U.S April 3, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Trump’s day in court, Turkey stuffing Sweden, Egypt buddying up
Trump’s arraignment
Donald Trump has a busy day ahead of him Tuesday. He returned to the Big Apple Monday night and, after getting some shut-eye in Trump Tower, the former president will head to the Manhattan courthouse on Tuesday for his indictment. After his court appearance and a quick photo-op, he’ll jet back to Mar-a-Lago before an evening news conference.
Sound like an orchestrated plan? That’s because Trump’s team wants to capitalize on the publicity blitz around his arrest to bolster his bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. There’s reason to believe this is working: Since the news of his indictment dropped, his campaign claims to have raised $7 million, and his polling numbers have soared above other Republican candidates.
On March 30, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg brought the results of his investigation before a Manhattan grand jury, which voted to indict the former president. Trump is expected to plead not guilty on Tuesday.
While the charges against him have not been revealed, they likely involve Trump's reimbursement to his former attorney and “fixer,” Michael Cohen, who paid adult film star Stormy Daniels $130,000 in exchange for her silence ahead of the 2016 election. The Trump Organization then filed Cohen’s $420,000 reimbursement and bonus as a “legal expense.”
Falsifying business records is only a misdemeanor in New York, but if it is done with the intent to commit or cover up another crime – namely, violating campaign finance laws – then Trump could be looking at a Class E felony and a minimum of one year in prison.
Trump will be the first former US president to be indicted on criminal charges. But whether his indictment will push the GOP to jump ship in favor of another candidate, or what it means for the campaign if they don’t, remains unclear.
Turkey keeps stuffing Sweden — why?
On Tuesday, Finland finally joins NATO, lengthening the alliance’s border with Russia by 800 miles and adding to its ranks some of the world’s most fearsome snow snipers. Good work, Mr. Putin!
But remember who isn’t joining the club? Sweden, whose accession bid remains blocked by NATO member Turkey, who says Stockholm still hasn’t done enough to quash Kurdish terrorist groups that are at war with the Turkish government. Note that Turkey dropped similar objections about Finland last week but is still squeezing Sweden.
Why? For one thing, Turkey’s pugnacious President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces a very tough election in May, and flexing against the West like this can stoke nationalist passions in his favor. He may also seek concessions from his Western partners elsewhere, say, on Washington’s refusal to sell him state-of-the-art fighter jets, or its support for Kurdish militias in Syria.
For years, Erdoğan has played a shrewd game – as a NATO member but friend to Putin; a European partner on the migrant crisis but at a price. By greenlighting Finland while holding back on Sweden, he’s showing he’s willing to be reasonable but that he expects his pound of flesh too. Will it work?
A battered Egypt searches for friends
Times are tough – economically speaking – in Egypt, and President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi is looking to mend and shore up relations across the region. On Monday, el-Sissi traveled to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, aka MBS, the country’s de facto leader.
El-Sissi's visit comes as the economy of import-reliant Egypt is reeling as a result of economic mismanagement and Russia’s war in Ukraine. (Egypt has been forced to devalue its currency three times over the past year.)
While Riyadh has long doled out funds to help keep cash-strapped Egypt afloat, it recently said that it will no longer hand out blank checks and that Cairo should implement reforms to receive aid. El-Sissi likely wants to convince MBS that he’s already making some changes as part of a deal with the International Monetary Fund.
Another big topic on the agenda? Reintegrating Syria, deemed a pariah by the West, into the Arab League. This comes just days after Egypt and Syria held high-level talks for the first time in a decade as Cairo looks to reestablish diplomatic ties with Bashar al-Assad. Indeed, Egypt is just the latest Arab country to welcome Syria back in from the cold, with reports that el-Sissi hopes to eventually win lucrative contracts to help rebuild the war-torn country.
People search for survivors following an earthquake in Iskenderun, Turkey.
The politics of recovery in Syria and Turkey
As the death toll mounts from Monday’s 7.8-magnitude earthquake, rescue efforts are intensifying in southern Turkey and northern Syria, with thousands of international aid workers flying in to assist.
The rescue effort, however, is anything but smooth sailing, not least because of frigid weather conditions. (Aid workers say that snow makes debris heavier and increases the risk of more building collapses.) But there are also political factors obstructing the recovery work.
The view from Syria. Most of Syria is now back under the control of President Bashar Assad, who stands accused by the West of using chemical weapons on his own people at least nine times since the civil war broke out in 2011.
Northern Syria, however, is a lawless terrain: The northeast is held by US-backed Kurdish forces that the Pentagon armed in recent years to fight the Assad regime, while the country’s northwest, which has borne the brunt of the earthquake, is held by Turkey as well as a ragtag group of militant outfits. The US, for its part, still has 900 troops on the ground in the north.
Indeed, turf wars and ongoing aerial attacks make a coordinated aid response in Syria almost impossible. While the European Union announced on Wednesday a €3.5 million ($3.7 million) emergency humanitarian package for Syria, it remains unclear how this will be distributed, particularly as the Assad regime demands that all assistance pass through Damascus. This suggests the regime won’t allow deliveries to opposition forces in the north, which Brussels cannot accept. On Thursday, six UN aid trucks entered northwestern Syria bringing in “shelter items ... including blankets and hygiene kits” but no food.
Nodding to Damascus’ broad obstructionism, a spokesperson for the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said on Wednesday: “Our trucks are ready and the willingness is there. We are just waiting for the access to do it.”
The view from Turkey. While Turkey has a sprawling state apparatus capable of coordinating a unified response, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been accused of failing to get operations off the ground fast enough. Erdogan, for his part, condemned the opposition for using the tragedy to score political points and said it is not possible to prepare for such extreme events. But many Turks are asking what happened to the billions of lire raised under a national earthquake levy introduced after the devastating quake in İzmit in 1999 that killed more than 17,000 people.
In a sign that Erdogan is clearly concerned about incoming criticism, Ankara limited access to Twitter after the platform was used to vent frustration with the government’s recovery effort, though access has since been restored. Clamping down on detractors is more important now than ever for Erdogan, who is facing a tough reelection battle on May 14.
What is Turkey thinking?
It’s been over a month since Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO. But despite expectations of a speedy process, the joint bid has been met by an unexpected and troublesome obstacle: Turkey.
Historically, applications to NATO have been very smooth, as with many Eastern European countries in the 2000s; or they can be complicated and unyielding, as with Ukraine. But this time, Helsinki and Stockholm face just one skeptical member armed with a list of demands and that all-important veto power.
From reassurances that it wouldn’t “close the door” to the two Nordic countries joining the alliance, to concession requests, and even threats of delaying the accession for up to a year, Ankara’s foreign policy seems a tad all over the place.
Now, less than a week away from the NATO summit in Madrid — where many believed the Swedes and Finns would formally join the alliance — one can’t help but wonder: what the heck is on Turkey’s mind?
Ankara’s demands. When Turkey first raised its objection, many onlookers assumed it was all about optics, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan playing to his base to rally domestic support ahead of next year’s national election.
But the Turks say they want:
- Sweden and Finland to treat the Kurdistan Worker’s Party like the Islamic State
- For the Finns, Swedes, and a few other European states to lift a 2019 arms embargo over Turkey’s military intervention in northern Syria
- The extradition of some 30 alleged terrorists residing in Sweden
Erdogan’s motives. Really at the heart of what Turkey is asking for are calculations about its strategic and domestic interests, says Emre Peker, a Europe Director at Eurasia Group.
“Any government would push for similar concessions, maybe just in a more diplomatic, behind-closed-doors manner,” Peker says.
Sure, Erdogan wants to win at home, and his grandstanding is part of that push. “But he’s not motivated purely by domestic politics,” Peker says. It’s a reflection of his long-running focus on NATO behavior and security concerns, particularly regarding the Kurdish YPG militia in northern Syria.
While Turkey can’t get the US or French to drop their support for the YPG, Ankara “does have the leverage to push would-be NATO members to accept [its] security concern before joining the alliance.”
But it’s a delicate dance. Although pushing allies to fully consider Turkey’s security contract is one thing, Turkey can’t isolate itself within NATO without suffering “grave security, defense consequences,” Peker adds.
Long-term grievances. Erdogan’s PKK shenanigans have a lot to do with national security. Not only is Turkey hosting 3.6 million Syrian refugees, but the tensions along its shared border and the Kurdish-held region are far from resolved. Just last week, Turkey started planning a military operation in Syria against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.
Possible wins. While the Turkish president can’t really afford a fight, he can certainly use a victory. The self-serving reality of this push could help Erdogan build a success story in foreign policy, framing himself as a negotiator on the world stage.
“Ankara is trying to position itself as a nominally neutral country that can also act as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia,” Peker says.
Possible losses. As the war continues in Ukraine and NATO members grow increasingly frustrated with Turkey blocking accession, Helsinki may find itself being collateral damage.
For now, the Finns are trying to talk things out with the Turks to resolve the situation without delay. But the real beef is with Sweden, which has had a strong bond with the Kurdish cause and is home to a far bigger Kurdish community than Finland.
“The real problem remains between Turkey and Sweden,” says Peker, and it is now up to these two players to “iron out their bilateral issues.” If they don’t, Finland, the country with the most to lose as Russia’s next-door neighbor may be stuck in the crossfire … and outside the alliance.
What We're Watching: Separatists vs far right in Catalonia, US-Turkey row, France's controversial bill
Catalonia's post-election mess: Spain's pro-union Socialist Party (which leads the national coalition government in Spain) won the most votes in Sunday's regional election in Catalonia. But for the first time ever, pro-independence parties collectively came ahead in the popular vote, reaping a majority of seats (though voter turnout was dismal). Separatist forces will now band together to form yet another government in Catalonia that will prioritize breaking away from Spain, and may again try to secede unilaterally. Adding to Catalonia's political polarization, the far-right Vox party won almost 10 percent of the ballots cast with a fiery anti-independence, anti-immigration message that resonated with some unionist Catalans. The result puts Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in a bind: he needs pro-independence parties to get legislation passed in the national parliament, but giving them what they want — a pardon for the Catalan politicians convicted of secession for the events of 2017 and more autonomy for the region — would be immensely unpopular among voters in the rest of the country, and could encourage many of them to gravitate towards Vox. Your move, Don Pedro.
France's anti-separatism bill: The French parliament voted on Tuesday in favor of legislation aimed at curbing what President Emmanuel Macron has called "Islamic-separatism," and strengthening France's secular character. The bill's 51 articles include limits on homeschooling, fines — and even jail time — for doctors that conduct so-called "virginity tests" for Muslim women, as well as harsher penalties for online hate speech. Critics say the new law is discriminatory, unfairly targeting 5.7 million French Muslims, and does not reflect France's contemporary melting-pot culture. But proponents of the bill — among them many imams — argue that the new measures are necessary as France grapples with a resurgence of terrorist attacks by Islamic extremists. Indeed, the gruesome beheading of a teacher outside Paris last fall, followed by a deadly rampage at a church several days later in Nice, sent shockwaves through a country that has lost more of its people to terror attacks in recent years than any other Western country. But there's also a political dimension at play: Macron faces a tough reelection battle in 2022, and currently trails his far-right rival Marine Le Pen in the polls while his own approval rating remains sluggish. Will inching closer to the right help Macron's reelection bid?
Turkey hits US over Kurds: Weeks after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken angered Ankara by saying it wasn't acting like a NATO ally because of its purchase of Russia's S-400 missile defense system, US-Turkey relations have deteriorated further. This time, Turkey has blasted Washington for questioning the reported involvement of Kurdish militants in the execution of 13 Turkish hostages in northern Iraq, summoning the US ambassador for a scolding (Turkey, which considers Kurdish militants to be terrorists, also criticized Washington's ongoing support for the Kurds in Syria). As Turkish journalist İpek Yezdani told GZERO Media last fall, Turkey's pugnacious President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is no fan of US President Joe Biden, who a year ago irked Erdogan by calling for the opposition to beat him in the next election. By contrast, Trump appeased Erdogan by withdrawing US troops from northern Syria. We're watching to see how frosty US-Turkey ties will get in the near term — and if Erdogan and Biden will find any common ground.