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What (or who) will replace USAID?
As Washington pulls back from its decades-long role as the world’s leading aid donor, the humanitarian system is facing what David Miliband calls a “very big shock.” On GZERO World, the International Rescue Committee president and CEO tells Ian Bremmer that the US has historically been the anchor of the global aid system, contributing nearly $4 out of every $10 aid dollar. But amid the cancellation of USAID and a dramatic pullback in foreign funding, vital programs are now closing and the impacts are being felt all over the world.
Who–or what–could step in to fill the gap? Miliband says China isn’t interested in large-scale humanitarian aid, focused instead on economic development though initiatives like Belt and Road. Europe, meanwhile, is stretched thin by war in Ukraine and pandemic debt. The Gulf States and Japan are debating their role, but the scale of US funding remains unmatched. The result, Miliband argues, is “sucking sound” of money leaving the system, leaving the world’s poorest to pay the price.
“The US was the anchor of the global aid system,” Miliband explains, “When you pull an anchor in choppy waters, the boat rocks and the passengers get seasick. That’s what’s happening at the moment.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
The global refugee crisis is at breaking point
The global refugee population is at historic highs, driven by war in Ukraine, violence in Sudan, state collapse in Venezuela, Taliban rule in Afghanistan, and a worsening humanitarian disaster in Gaza. On GZERO World, David Miliband, president & CEO of the International Rescue Committee joins Ian Bremmer to discuss the refugee crisis, the rise of forcibly displaced people around the world, and the crumbling humanitarian aid system amid the cancellation of USAID. What happens when the poorest countries are left to solve the hardest problems? And who–if anyone–is stepping up to help?
Miliband says that in 20 countries in crisis, there are more than 275 million people in humanitarian need, people that depend on international aid and organizations like the IRC to survive. There have been some recent positive developments—hundreds of thousands of refugees returning to Syria after the fall of the Assad regime, the potential for progress in the Eastern DRC, new technologies improving aid delivery. Still, Miliband says the world is facing a humanitarian crisis of historic proportions and unless the international community steps up, tens of millions will suffer.
“We face a new abnormal. 10 years ago, there were 50 to 60 million internally displaced people and refugees. Now, there's 120 million,” Miliband says, “The scale of impunity, the loss of international engagement is epic.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
The broken system behind the refugee crisis
Who bears the cost of the world’s refugees? As wars, state collapse, and humanitarian crises from Ukraine to Sudan to Gaza drive millions from their homes, the number of forcibly displaced people around the world is at record highs. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the worsening global humanitarian crisis, the broken aid system, and where refugees actually go.
Contrary to widespread opinion in wealthier countries, the vast majority are hosted by low and middle income nations. Millions of forcibly displaced people never cross an international border at all. That imbalance isn’t just unfair—it’s dangerous. What happens when the poorest countries are left to solve the hardest problems?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Rescuers work at the site of a building that collapsed after the strong earthquake in Mandalay, Myanmar, on Sunday, March 30, 2025.
Myanmar struggles to cope with aftermath of quake
The death toll continues to rise in Myanmar after a devastating 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck near the central city of Mandalay on March 28. Approximately 1,700 people are dead and over 3,400 injured, with the US Geological Service estimating that casualties could top 10,000. The quake caused extensive damage to infrastructure, including bridges, roads, and hospitals, and left thousands homeless. Relief operations are further complicated by Myanmar’s ongoing civil war — the opposition said it would commence a two-week ceasefire in earthquake-affected areas, even as the junta reportedly continued bombing civilian areas.
Who’s helping? The international response has been broad and swift. The United Nations allocated $5 million for immediate relief efforts, the EU pledged $2.7 million in emergency aid, and Australia provided AU$2 million through the Red Cross. China, Russia, India, Hong Kong, Thailand, and Singapore have sent rescue and medical teams, while Vietnam, South Korea, New Zealand, and Malaysia are also providing assistance.
What about the US? President Donald Trump has offered help, but former officials with USAID question how cuts to that agency will impact relief efforts. The US pledged $2 million in aid “through Myanmar-based humanitarian assistance organizations” and said in a statement that an emergency response team from USAID is deploying to the country. However, Sarah Charles, a former senior USAID official during the Biden administration, described the agency as “in shambles” and lacking the necessary personnel and resources for disaster relief, such as rescuing survivors trapped in collapsed buildings. We’ll be watching whether America is able to deliver assistance effectively – and how that help is received.The end of US soft power?
The world’s wake-up call came at 3 a.m.
In the early darkness on Saturday, Feb. 1, USAID was suddenly shut down. “This site can’t be reached,” read its homepage. The end of the great age of American soft power began.
It was shocking, but not surprising. When Elon Musk pulled the rip cord of his verbal chainsaw and declared that USAID was a $40 billion “criminal organization” that “must die,” the deep-cut result was inevitable. President Donald Trump agreed, saying the organization was run “by a bunch of lunatics.”
Today, the website message is more stark. “On Friday, February 7, 2025, at 11:59 p.m. (EST) all USAID direct hire personnel will be placed on administrative leave globally, with the exception of designated personnel responsible for mission-critical functions, core leadership and specially designated programs.”
The remnants of USAID will be rolled into the State Department.
Is this really the end of American soft power and, if so, how should allies respond?
Created by President John F. Kennedy back in 1961, USAID was meant to be the bicep in America’s muscular arm of diplomatic power. According to the Congressional Research Service, USAID “provides assistance to strategically important countries and countries in conflict; leads US efforts to alleviate poverty, disease, and humanitarian need; and assists US commercial interests by supporting developing countries’ economic growth and building countries’ capacity to participate in world trade.”
It was a broad mandate covering over 131 countries and hundreds of programs.
What did they do? At its best, USAID helped fight deadly diseases through programs such as the Malaria Council in Uganda, or the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief. It supported NGOs working to stop the spread of Ebola and Marburg virus and to feed hungry people in Sudan.
The hyperpolarized culture wars rang the death knell of proportionality long ago, so when Musk dismissed the entire agency as “a radical left political psy ops” program, it fit the moment. Everything is now either the worst or the best. The middle ground is gone. But for all that, the facts remain and they are worth mentioning.
For example, the White House currently has a website up outlining its claims of waste and abuse at USAID, chronicling things like $70,000 for a DEI musical in Ireland and $32,000 for a “transgender comic book in Peru.” Those are making headlines in the culture war media. There will be other examples of programs the current administration chooses not to fund or accuses of corruption, but how many?
Turns out, the website only gives concrete examples of about $12 million worth of programs they don’t like, along with allegations but no data on “hundreds of millions” of others. Of USAID’s annual budget of $40 billion, that adds up to less than 2%. Is the best answer to a broken toe the complete amputation of a leg? Apparently so.
USAID was an important instrument of what Joseph Nye called “soft power,” achieving national security and goals through attraction, not coercion. “When you can get others to admire your ideals and to want what you want, you do not have to spend as much on sticks and carrots to move them in your direction,” Nye wrote in “Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics” back in 2004.
USAID was just that, projecting the ideals of the US in places where chaos, poverty, and insecurity are fertile grounds for malevolent forces that endanger the United States. It did this by supporting multilateral institutions, such as the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate Agreement. Soft power is a form of security and is supposed to work in conjunction with hard power. But if you think the cost of soft power is high, try the costs of hard power. Americans know that all too well from experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan.
What is striking about all this is that the Trump administration is not just trying to recalibrate US soft power to promote its own agenda. If that were the case, they would simply reform USAID, not kill it. This is radically different. What is now clear is that the Trump administration doesn’t believe in the value of soft power at all. It simply has no use in their political playbook.
There are no countries happier with the retreat of US soft power than China and Russia. Their influence in developing countries will now grow dramatically. Democracies are in retreat all over the world, as the Freedom House map shows, and the sunset of US soft power will make it worse.
But this is not the only example of the twilight of US soft power. The threat of 25% percent tariffs on allies like Canada is another. There is no closer ally to the US than Canada, with a shared border, a free trade deal, and deeply connected cultures. The tariff threat suddenly upended that, leading to scenes I have never witnessed in my lifetime, such as Canadians booing the American national anthem at hockey games.
The northern sense of confusion and betrayal is being amplified by the election cycles in Canada, with politicians now stoking a patriotism that comes at the expense of affection for the US. It is not a good trend but in context, completely understandable.
At this moment, the ubiquitous soft power of American culture has gone from inspiring to infuriating, the American beacon of freedom is now fried up into Canadian bacon. It will take a long time to reestablish trust between the friendliest of all neighbo(u)rs.
Let’s not overstate things. US soft power is not gone; it’s just diminished. American culture, innovation, and institutions remain resilient to challenges and attractive to billions of people. And for all the talk of diversifying trade, Canada will be economically tied to the US forever. There is simply no escaping geography.
But the end of the golden age of American soft power means that hard power options — militarily and economically – are now the most prominent tools on the table. Trump’s repeated claim that Canada should become the 51st state while threatening to economically destroy the country has gone from a bad joke to an ominous warning. How to respond?
As the US abandons its soft power strategy, its allies are having to develop their own versions of it to avoid punishment. Taking on Trump in a hard power fight is, after all, a lose-lose. A trade war may hurt the US, but it would hurt Canada much more.
The strategy now is to use soft power levers to try to convince the US president that what Washington wants, Ottawa wants too, without giving up too much in the process. So spending $1.3 billion at the border to stop illegal immigration and fentanyl is money well spent if it can help stave off tariffs that would likely push Canada into a recession. Of course, the tariffs aren't solely in response to fentanyl and immigration, but those are low-hanging fruit and, so far, addressing those issues has worked.
Then what? What are the rules of soft power in dealing with President Trump? Don’t celebrate and gloat over a win. Stay cool when threats don’t materialize. Don’t make it personal because with the president the personal is political. This is not a strategy of appeasement but simply using carrots, not sticks. To twist an old David Frost saying, soft power is the art of letting someone else have your way.Sudanese Refugees in the Central African Republic
Hard Numbers: The world’s most “neglected crises,” Eurozone inflation dip, ex-Brazilian president behind bars, AfD comeback in Germany, soccer GOAT in the wilderness
7: Seven of the top 10 most “neglected crises” are in Africa, according to a new report released by the Norwegian Refugee Council, a human rights NGO. It lists jihadist-plagued Burkina Faso, where only 42% of international aid requested has been handed down, as the most neglected, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, Colombia, and Sudan. NRC’s criteria are based on the lack of global political will, media coverage, and humanitarian funding.
6.1: Inflation in the Eurozone dropped to 6.1% in May year-on-year, down from 7% the previous month. While this suggests that the European Central Bank’s belt-tightening is indeed working, ECB President Christine Lagarde told Europeans to expect more interest rate hikes, decrying still-too-high inflation.
9: Brazil’s former President Fernando Collor de Mello – the country’s first democratically elected head of state (1989-1992) — has been sentenced to almost 9 years in prison for corruption and money laundering. The charges date back to his time as senator (2010-2014) and relate to the broader “Car Wash” scandal, which also led to the conviction of current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva that was ultimately overturned by the Supreme Court.
18: Germany's far-right AfD party is now polling at 18% nationwide, behind the ruling center-left SPD and centrist FDP but several points ahead of the Greens. The climate-skeptic, pro-nuclear AfD has benefited from fiercely opposing the energy and climate policies of the federal coalition government (formed by the SPD, FDP, and the Greens).
2: Soccer GOAT Leo Messi is reportedly leaving Paris Saint-Germain after two lackluster seasons with the French club. Where will Argentina's World Cup-winning captain go? Most likely, he’ll either return to FC Barcelona or accept an offer from Saudi Arabia — which could open a geopolitical can of worms with the Qatari owners of PSG.
Stopping the debt spiral in the world's poorest nations
"There needs to be a dramatic and deep reduction in the amount of debt on the poorest countries. That's clear." As the world's poorest nations struggle to recover from a devastating pandemic, World Bank President David Malpass argues that freeing them of much of their debt will be key. His conversation with Ian Bremmer is part of the latest episode of GZERO World.