Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
U.S. President Donald Trump talks with Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in Doha, Qatar, May 15, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Trump signs security guarantee with Qatar, Papua New Guinea and Australia make defense deal, and Israel intercepts Gaza aid flotilla
Trump signs security guarantee with Qatar
Yesterday, it was made public that Donald Trump signed a NATO-style security pledge with Qatar on Monday, the same day Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the White House. The order upgrades the US’s security obligation to Qatar in the event of a future attack, and is a “compensation” for Israel’s strike last month on Hamas leaders in Doha. While the executive order’s legal weight is questionable, the move is as much about countering Saudi Arabia’s new defense pact with Pakistan as it is about the Israeli strike, underscoring pressure on the US to prove it remains a reliable security guarantor for its Gulf state allies.
Papua New Guinea and Australia to seal defense pact
The cabinet of Papua New Guinea has approved a defense pact with Australia. The move, expected to be approved by both countries’ lawmakers, comes as China broadens its push for influence in the South Pacific. The Solomon Islands, located just east of Papua New Guinea, have been a major focus of Chinese investment and security activity in recent years. (For more see our recent explainer here.) Under the PNG-Australia agreement, the two countries are obligated to come to each other’s defense, but can also maintain alliances with third-parties.
Israel intercepts Gaza aid flotilla
Israeli forces have intercepted 39 boats that were sailing towards the Gaza Strip as part of a flotilla carrying humanitarian aid. Celebrity activist Greta Thunberg was among those arrested, along with several European politicians. Israeli officials indicated one of the boats may still be on its way to Gaza, and would also be stopped if it approaches the war zone.
How can data and AI transform humanitarian action?
As the United Nations turns 80, the urgency to rethink global cooperation has never been greater. In a live broadcast from the UN headquarters and moderated by GZERO Media’s Global Chief Content Officer, Tony Maciulis, an expert panel gathered to discuss if AI and data can reshape a strained multilateral system to meet today’s crises.
The conversation featured top UN officials and global partners reflecting on both the challenges and opportunities ahead. Guy Ryder, Under-Secretary-General for Policy, UN, emphasized that multilateralism remains essential but requires sharper results. Tom Fletcher, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, noted cautious progress in peace diplomacy while warning of extreme strain on humanitarian workers. Ugo Daniels, Deputy Director, International Organization for Migration, highlighted how data can shift focus from temporary relief to durable migration solutions.
The second panel expanded the lens: Dr. Comfort Ero, President & CEO, International Crisis Group, warned that with 62 conflicts worldwide, the UN remains indispensable but must evolve; Dr. Ahmed Ogwell, CEO & President, VillageReach; former head of Africa CDC, urged better crisis preparedness and stronger community engagement with their own data; and Gunn Jorid Roset, Director General, Norad, reaffirmed Norway’s support for reform and evidence-based aid.
Across both panels, one theme resonated: technology alone cannot end wars, heal trauma, or feed the hungry. But combined with reform, political will, and smarter partnerships, better use of data and AI can help the UN deliver solutions.
This livestream, “Rethink, Reset, Deliver Better with Data and AI,” was an event produced in partnership between the Complex Risk Analytics Fund, or CRAF’d, and GZERO Media’s Global Stage series, sponsored by Microsoft.
What (or who) will replace USAID?
As Washington pulls back from its decades-long role as the world’s leading aid donor, the humanitarian system is facing what David Miliband calls a “very big shock.” On GZERO World, the International Rescue Committee president and CEO tells Ian Bremmer that the US has historically been the anchor of the global aid system, contributing nearly $4 out of every $10 aid dollar. But amid the cancellation of USAID and a dramatic pullback in foreign funding, vital programs are now closing and the impacts are being felt all over the world.
Who–or what–could step in to fill the gap? Miliband says China isn’t interested in large-scale humanitarian aid, focused instead on economic development though initiatives like Belt and Road. Europe, meanwhile, is stretched thin by war in Ukraine and pandemic debt. The Gulf States and Japan are debating their role, but the scale of US funding remains unmatched. The result, Miliband argues, is “sucking sound” of money leaving the system, leaving the world’s poorest to pay the price.
“The US was the anchor of the global aid system,” Miliband explains, “When you pull an anchor in choppy waters, the boat rocks and the passengers get seasick. That’s what’s happening at the moment.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
The global refugee crisis is at breaking point
The global refugee population is at historic highs, driven by war in Ukraine, violence in Sudan, state collapse in Venezuela, Taliban rule in Afghanistan, and a worsening humanitarian disaster in Gaza. On GZERO World, David Miliband, president & CEO of the International Rescue Committee joins Ian Bremmer to discuss the refugee crisis, the rise of forcibly displaced people around the world, and the crumbling humanitarian aid system amid the cancellation of USAID. What happens when the poorest countries are left to solve the hardest problems? And who–if anyone–is stepping up to help?
Miliband says that in 20 countries in crisis, there are more than 275 million people in humanitarian need, people that depend on international aid and organizations like the IRC to survive. There have been some recent positive developments—hundreds of thousands of refugees returning to Syria after the fall of the Assad regime, the potential for progress in the Eastern DRC, new technologies improving aid delivery. Still, Miliband says the world is facing a humanitarian crisis of historic proportions and unless the international community steps up, tens of millions will suffer.
“We face a new abnormal. 10 years ago, there were 50 to 60 million internally displaced people and refugees. Now, there's 120 million,” Miliband says, “The scale of impunity, the loss of international engagement is epic.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
The broken system behind the refugee crisis
Who bears the cost of the world’s refugees? As wars, state collapse, and humanitarian crises from Ukraine to Sudan to Gaza drive millions from their homes, the number of forcibly displaced people around the world is at record highs. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the worsening global humanitarian crisis, the broken aid system, and where refugees actually go.
Contrary to widespread opinion in wealthier countries, the vast majority are hosted by low and middle income nations. Millions of forcibly displaced people never cross an international border at all. That imbalance isn’t just unfair—it’s dangerous. What happens when the poorest countries are left to solve the hardest problems?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Ambassador Robert Wood of the US raises his hand to vote against the ceasefire resolution at the United Nations Security Council, on November 20, 2024.
US vetoes Gaza ceasefire resolution
US vetoes Gaza ceasefire resolution
The US on Wednesday cast the lone veto to sink a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate, unconditional ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
Washington said it opposed the measure because of wording that would have allowed Hamas to wait until after a ceasefire to release the roughly 100 remaining hostages that it still holds in Gaza. This is the fourth time the United States has blocked a ceasefire resolution of this kind.
The draft also called for Palestinian civilians in Gaza to be allowed to return to their homes, for the unhindered delivery of humanitarian aid to the strip, and for a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces.
The resolution’s failure comes as the humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to worsen. Earlier this week, unknown armed men looted roughly 100 trucks in a humanitarian convoy, causing food prices in the already-starving enclave to soar. The UN estimates only 16% of the 1.7 million people in central and southern Gaza have received adequate food rations.
Last week a 30 day ultimatum ran out for Israel to improve humanitarian access to the Strip or risk losing some US arms transfers. Washington said Israel had done the bare minimum to satisfy its concerns.
An Israeli protestor points at mounted police officers next to a bonfire on Democracy Square (Kaplan junction) during the demonstration. Over 100,000 of Israelis demonstrated with the hostages families against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, demanding an immediate hostage deal and ceasefire as they set up bonfires on Kaplan Junction.
Israeli war cabinet disbanded amid IDF pauses in Gaza
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dissolved the country’s war cabinet on Monday, one week after archrival Benny Gantz resigned, citing a lack of strategy in the war in Gaza.
Meanwhile, the Israeli military implemented a “tactical pause of military activity” to increase the delivery of humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians but made it clear that this is not a cease-fire. The daily 11-hour pause began early Saturday along a route leading north from the Kerem Shalom crossing, and aid deliveries are being coordinated with the UN and international aid agencies.
Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant were reportedly unaware of the pause before its announcement, with Netanyahu subsequently telling his military secretary that it was “unacceptable.” That said, some analysts believe Netanyahu did approve the plan.
The pause, which came as Israel buried 11 soldiers killed in the war, has exacerbated the rift within the Israeli government. “The person who decided on a ‘tactical pause’ … while the best of our soldiers are being killed in battle is a fool and an imbecile who must not remain in office,” said Internal Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich claimed the pause risked putting “the achievements of the war down the drain.” Both ministers previously threatened to bring down Bibi’s coalition government if he ended the war, and had lobbied to replace Gantz on the war cabinet.
Tens of thousands of Israelis demonstrated in Tel Aviv in favor of a cease-fire on Saturday night, the start of “a week of action” against Netanyahu’s government. We’ll be watching to see how Bibi navigates the tensions with the military, and what dissolving the war cabinet — which was meant to help unify the country’s response to the Oct. 7 attacks — will have.
Palestinian people holding empty bowls try to reach out for food distributed by UNRWA workers at donation point.
UNRWA, explained
UNRWA: What is it?
In the days since Israel accused employees of UNRWA of participating in Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks, the US and at least nine other countries have temporarily suspended funding for the UN agency, which provides humanitarian aid and social services to the roughly 6 million Palestinians classified as refugees in Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon.
What is the origin of UNRWA?
The United Nations Relief Works Agency was created in 1949 by the recently founded United Nations to provide humanitarian aid and economic support to the roughly 700,000 Arabs of Palestine who fled or were driven from their homes during the Arab-Israeli war of 1948.
What does UNRWA do?
It runs schools and health clinics, delivers humanitarian aid, food, and cash assistance to the poor, and runs basic microfinance programs. The agency employs about 20,000 education staff, who run more than 700 schools, and more than 3,000 health staff working at roughly 170 hospitals.
Who funds it?
UN members who donate to its budget. In 2022, the US was the largest single donor country, giving about a third of UNRWA’s $1.2 billion budget, or $343 million. The combined contributions of the EU and its member states amount to about 40% of the budget. Saudi Arabia is the largest Arab donor, coming in with $27 million. Among other leading countries from the Global South, India donated $5 million, Russia gave $2 million, and China just $1 million. You can see the full list here.
How important is Gaza in UNRWA’s work?
About half of the agency’s total staff is employed in Gaza alone, and it is the strip’s largest employer after Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. Since Hamas came to power nearly 20 years ago, a security blockade imposed by Israel and Egypt has kept the enclave largely cut off from the outside world. As a result, UNRWA is a critical source of aid and services for the strip’s roughly 2 million people, 75% of whom are refugees.
How will the funding cutoff affect UNRWA?
UNRWA says that without a resumption of funding, it will be unable to continue functioning in Gaza beyond February and that this could lead to a humanitarian catastrophe. Even before Israel’s recent siege, bombardment, and invasion, between 60% and 80% of Gazans lived in poverty, according to the World Bank and the UN. Since Oct. 7, more than 80% of the population has been displaced. Nearly half are sheltering in UNRWA-run facilities. The UN is warning that if UNRWA’s activity is curtailed, a famine will be “inevitable.”
What are the controversies surrounding UNRWA?
Successive Israeli governments have criticized UNRWA for fomenting anti-Israeli sentiment in its schools, taking a political position in the Israel-Palestine conflict, and lending support to Palestinian militants. On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – who has long called for UNRWA’s dissolution – said the agency is “riddled” with Hamas.
What is the relationship between Hamas and UNRWA?
The militants of Hamas are the governing authority in Gaza, and their movement is deeply rooted in the strip’s religious and social institutions. In principle, this makes it almost impossible for UNRWA to operate without interacting with Hamas or employing its sympathizers.
Abetting or participating in a militant attack, of course, is a different story. UNRWA says it has terminated the employees allegedly involved and opened an investigation into the issue.
What is the relationship between UNRWA and Israel?
Despite its criticisms of UNRWA, Israel relies on UNRWA to distribute aid and provide services in Gaza. If UNRWA were dissolved or incapacitated, Israel’s army would, in principle, have to take on this task itself.