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Should we be worried about population decline?
How worried should we be about falling birth rates around the world? For years, experts have been sounding the alarm about overpopulation and the strain on global resources, so why is population decline necessarily a bad thing? On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, demographic expert Jennifer Sciubba, President & CEO of the Population Reference Bureau, warns governments are “decades behind” in preparing for a future that’s certain to come: one where the global population starts decreasing and societies, on average, are much older.
Sciubba says that government policies are too focused on trying to get people to have more babies instead of adjusting their social and economic systems for an aging, smaller population. “If we're thinking geopolitically, who's likely to come out on top,” Sciubba predicts, “It'll be the countries who realize the fastest that they're not going to reverse these population trends and they instead build to deal with it.”
Watch full episode: Why the world is facing a population crisis
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
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Why the world is facing a population crisis
How worried should we be about population collapse? Two-thirds of the people on Earth live in countries with fertility rates below replacement levels of 2.1 children per woman. Experts warn the global population will start falling within 60 years, dramatically impacting the future of work and social security. In the US, Vice President-Elect JD Vance has repeatedly expressed alarm over falling birth rates. Elon Musk has called population decline “a much bigger risk” to civilization than global warming. Places like Japan and Italy are already grappling with shrinking workforces, skyrocketing retirement costs, and healthcare systems stretched to their limits. So, we are heading toward demographic catastrophe, and can governments do anything about it? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits with Jennifer Sciubba, president and CEO of the Population Reference Bureau, to discuss population decline, the global fertility crisis, and why now is the time to reorient our economic and social welfare systems for an aging future.
“The governments that do not adjust their systems to deal with what you actually have, which is an aging smaller population in the future,” Sciubba warns, “They will have a problem."
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Should we rethink the global aging crisis?
The world is quietly being reshaped by a demographic time bomb: Birthrates are plummeting, and the global population is rapidly aging. By 2050, one in six people will be over 65. While the overall population is still increasing—driven by growth in developing countries like Nigeria and Pakistan—experts predict it will peak in about 60 years. The shift to depopulation will have huge implications for the future of work, healthcare, and retirement. So what can we do about it? On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the different strategies governments are using to try to get people to have more kids, particularly in East Asia, where the population crisis is severe. Countries like Japan and South Korea have tried tax incentives, expanded parental leave, subsidized child care, and even matchmaking. But nothing is working. Is a slow-moving crisis inevitable? Or, instead of turning back the demographic clock, is it time to start rethinking the future of aging?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Graphic Truth: From baby boom to baby gloom
Women are having fewer children in the US and Canada, where birth rates have been falling since the 1960s. In 2020, Canada’s fertility rate hit an all-time low of 1.4 children per woman. In the US, the national birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007.
The baby bust is not unique to Canada and the US; the decline is unfolding across the OECD, as women gain increased access to contraception, higher education, and careers, all of which tend to lead to delayed family planning.
High inflation in recent years isn’t helping matters. After all, kids are expensive – from housing to education to health care – which may be enough to deter some couples.
But there is one OECD country where this isn’t the case: Israel. Israeli women have an average of 3.1 children, making Israel the only OECD country where the birth rate is above the replacement level. Experts attribute this to the influence of religion and tradition in the country, as well as social and economic policies that encourage work-family balance.