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Damage at the site of the blast in Beirut's port area, Lebanon. Photo taken August 5, 2020
What We’re Watching: Lebanon’s lackluster port probe resumes, Kanye’s troubles Down Under, Rwanda-DRC tensions
Will Lebanese port blast victims ever get justice?
The long-stalled investigation into the July 2020 Beirut port blast that killed at least 218 people got very messy this week. After a 13-month hiatus, the investigation resumed with Judge Tarek Bitar charging three high-ranking officials – including former PM Hassan Diab – with homicide with probable intent. (The charges related to the unsafe storage at a port warehouse of hundreds of tons of ammonium nitrate that ultimately exploded, decimating large parts of the city.) But then, the chief prosecutor (yes, the prosecutor!) announced on Wednesday that he was charging the judge for reopening the case. It’s unclear what the exact charges against him are, but Bitar, the second judge to oversee this investigation, has been subject to intimidation for pursuing the case. Meanwhile, the prosecutor also ordered 17 suspects in pre-trial custody to be released. Indeed, this is the latest sign that a culture of impunity plagues Lebanon. Meanwhile, as the elite continue to line their pockets, Lebanon’s economic situation remains catastrophic. Just this week, the US said it was rerouting aid funds to help cash-strapped Lebanon pay security personnel’s wages over fears that the security situation could spiral.
Will Ye get to “Meet the Parents”?
Kanye “Ye” West isn’t getting much love Down Under these days with a host of politicians and academics calling for the rapper to be denied entry into Australia after his recent antisemitic tirades. (Unless you live in a cave, you’ll remember that several leading brands ditched their partnerships with Ye after he said that he “like[s] Hitler” and repeated classic antisemitic tropes about rich Jews owning the media.) Ye, formerly married to Kimmy K, is hoping to visit Melbourne to meet the parents of his new wife, Bianca Censori, an Aussie designer at Yeezy, his LA-based fashion house. Australian politicians across the political aisle have called on Ye to be banned from the country, and at least one senior minister confirmed that denying the famous American a visa wasn’t out of the question. To ban or not to ban? That’s the question. Let us know what you think the Aussies should do.
DRC-Rwanda on the brink?
Tensions are once again rising between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. On Wednesday, Rwanda's military opened fire on a Congolese fighter jet that the Rwandans claim had violated their airspace. The DRC, of course, denied it and called the shooting "an act of war." The jet landed safely at Goma International Airport in the DRC, but the Rwandans say this was the third time this has happened in recent months. What's more, this latest incident comes just a week before Pope Francis is scheduled to make the first papal visit to the Congolese capital of Kinshasa since 1985. The main goal of his trip is to shine a spotlight on the bloodshed of the conflict in eastern DRC, one of the world's most resource-rich yet conflict-ridden regions. (It's also quite complicated, so if you're interested, read our explainer here.) Why should you care? This is the closest the DRC and Rwanda have come to all-out war in years — the last time Rwandan troops invaded, they sparked the Second Congo War, a regional mega-conflict involving nine countries that killed and displaced millions.A newspaper with a cover picture of Mahsa Amini, a woman who died after being arrested by the Islamic republic's "morality police" is seen in Tehran.
Hard Numbers: Iranians protest Amini death, Ukrainian troops leave… DRC, tumult in Haiti, French spiderman
67: Iranian internet connectivity was curbed to 67% of ordinary levels to limit coordination via social media as protests broke out at the funeral of Mahsa Amini, an Iranian woman reportedly beaten to death in Tehran by the Islamic Republic’s morality police for failing to comply with the regime’s strict head covering requirements. Protesters shouted “death to the dictator” and some tore off their headscarves at the funeral held in the western province of Kurdistan.
250: Around 250 Ukrainian troops with the UN’s peacekeeping mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo are returning home to fight the war against Russia. This is one of the UN’s largest and most expensive peacekeeping missions and has been criticized for failing to root out insurgencies by armed groups vying for power – and access to minerals – in the crisis-ridden country.
100,000: Rioters calling for the resignation of Haiti's interim PM Ariel Henry looted businesses, and the UN Food Programme said that some stormed a warehouse stealing food aid that could feed 100,000 school kids through the end of the year. Thousands of Haitians have taken to the streets to protest the government’s decision to slash fuel price subsidies amid sky-high inflation and economic collapse.
48: A French solo climber – dubbed the French Spiderman – has scaled a 48 story building clad in tight red apparel to mark his 60th birthday. Alain Robert, an avid climber who climbed the building without ropes in one hour, said “I want to send people the message that being 60 is nothing. You can still do sport, be active, and do fabulous things.” Cheers to you, Alain.
A “combustible situation” in the eastern DRC
At least 17 people — including three UN personnel — have died after three days of violent protests against the UN peacekeeping mission in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Demonstrations in the region have now spread to other cities.
On Tuesday afternoon, hundreds of people surrounded and looted the UN base in Goma, demanding its forces withdraw from the eastern DRC. After the Congolese cops were unable to quell the protests, the UN decided to bring its peacekeepers home.
How we got here. The latest iteration of the UN peacekeeping mission in the DRC was established in 2010 to protect civilians in the eastern part of the country. But locals believe the UN peacekeepers have failed to do their job.
Bordering both Rwanda and Uganda, the eastern DRC is one of the most resource-rich yet conflict-ridden regions in sub-Saharan Africa. It suffered the chaotic exodus from the 1994 Rwandan genocide (committed by the majority ethnic Hutus against the minority Tutsis who now run the country), followed by two wars in 1996 and 1998. An estimated 120+ armed groups are now fighting there.
Things have gotten even worse since November 2021, when the M23 — a DRC-based rebel group claiming to defend DRC Tutsis against the Congolese military — began its latest offensive. Many in the DRC blame the M23's recent gains on Rwanda, which has long been accused of supporting the rebels (which the Rwandans deny).
A month ago, the DRC and Rwanda agreed to de-escalate tensions. But the violence persists, and people are getting tired — which in part explains the rage against the (UN) machine.
Why it matters. “Volatility in that region is kind of the executive status quo,” says Eurasia Group analyst Connor Vasey. But “any sort of intensification of that does create issues.”
And perhaps this time what’s happening is more troubling than the violence the region has seen for so many years.
This popular unrest is precisely what we should be watching out for, says Phil Clark, a professor at the SOAS University of London. The M23’s territorial gains have diverted attention away from what’s happening at the local level.
Never before, he explains, has the eastern DRC seen such popular active opposition, directed against several actors — Rwanda, the DRC government, the UN, and Tutsis — all at once.
“The thing that I think is worrying is how organized [it] is,” says Clark. “You’ve got these local leaders at the provincial and the village level very happily on camera, saying — go out and kill the Tutsis.”
If the protests managed to throw the UN out, it might spur more local unrest that could further worsen an already “combustible situation”.
Hard Numbers: Global chips glut, DRC border jam, Amazon deforestation
35: Remember last year's big semiconductor shortage? It's over. High inflation, China's zero-COVID policy, and Russia's war in Ukraine have slashed global demand for chips, with the benchmark Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 35% in 2022.
60: The Democratic Republic of Congo will expand its main border post with Zambia to ease congestion. Trucks loaded with precious minerals like copper are often stuck in lines up to 60 km (37.3 miles) long.
An elderly woman walks past a poster encouraging seniors to get vaccinated against COVID in Beijing.
What We’re Watching: Beijing vax mandate, DRC-Rwanda tensions
Beijing gets China's first COVID vax mandate
Somewhat late to the party compared to many parts of the world, China introduced on Wednesday its first COVID vaccine mandate in Beijing. Starting next week, residents of the capital will need to show proof of vax to enter most public spaces as authorities scramble to contain a new outbreak of a more infectious omicron subvariant. Oddly enough for an authoritarian state, China shunned mandates early in the pandemic because most people agreed to get vaxxed on their own, which helped keep the virus under control until late 2021. While nearly 90% of the population is fully vaccinated, inoculation rates among the elderly — those most vulnerable to becoming seriously ill or dying from COVID — are lower because many older Chinese adults are wary of getting jabs. What's more, China's vaccines are not as effective as Western mRNA jabs against new variants, so perhaps the goal of Beijing's mandate is to keep the unvaccinated elderly at home without implementing a citywide lockdown like in Shanghai. How will this affect Xi Jinping's zero-COVID policy? If major outbreaks are reported, expect other big Chinese cities to follow Beijing's lead.
DRC & Rwanda go head to head
This week, the Democratic Republic of the Congo President Félix Tshisekedi and his Rwandan counterpart, Paul Kagame, are meeting to discuss rising tensions along their shared border. In the eastern DRC, which borders both Rwanda and the Uganda, the M23 — a DRC rebel group claiming to defend DRC ethnic tutsis that wreaked havoc in the region in 2012 — has gained ground. Things heated up when the DRC recently blamed Rwanda for supporting the M23, which Rwanda denies. But conflict has been a constant in the region since the Rwandan genocide of 1994. Since then, the area has seen two wars, violence by more than 100 militant groups, peacekeeping missions, and humanitarian crises. Still, the eastern DRC remains one of the richest areas in the world for minerals used in technology, so it’s an area ripe for investment — and targeting. In April, the DRC tied itself to the economic interests of other countries in the region by joining the East African Community, which includes both Rwanda and Uganda. We'll keep an eye on how this messy situation plays out as the DRC and Rwandan leaders talk through their issues.General view of Severodonetsk from the last floor of a damaged building in the outskirts of the city.
What We’re Watching: Russian progress in Ukraine, gun ban plans in Canada, DRC-Rwanda tensions
Ukraine update: Is the war really shifting?
In recent days, Russian forces have made incremental gains in the Donbas. Vladimir Putin’s military now controls most of Luhansk province, and they are close to taking the strategic city of Severodonetsk, which would open the way to a wider Russian occupation of Donetsk province. Russia has shifted strategy in recent weeks, withdrawing from areas it couldn’t hold around Kyiv and Kharkiv to focus on more limited objectives in the East and South. Some military analysts warn that Russia’s recent gains are still coming at a very high cost in terms of human losses and morale. But even these slight shifts in the winds of war have raised fresh questions in the EU and US about what comes next. Driving Russia out of the east and south does not seem immediately possible. And although Washington continues to send Ukraine advanced weapons, US President Joe Biden on Monday said he would exclude rockets that could strike into Russian territory. After more than three months of war, the Ukrainians are still fighting like hell to defend their country and their democracy, but it’s no clearer yet what a reasonably achievable endgame looks like for Ukraine, for its Western backers, or for Moscow.
Canada’s Trudeau goes after guns
Another mass shooting that killed US schoolchildren in Texas has provided Canada’s Justin Trudeau with a big political opportunity to propose new gun laws. The prime minister has promised stricter gun control, and his government has proposed a ban on the purchase, sale, transfer, or importation of handguns in hopes of freezing the number of personally owned handguns across Canada. Trudeau’s interest in tougher gun laws isn’t new; his government had expanded background checks for firearm purchases and proposed a ban on assault weapons before the latest US shootings. But Ottawa will also have to continue to increase funding for security at the US border to keep smugglers from expanding the black market for weapons and ammunition. Republicans will continue to block tougher gun rules in the United States, but in Canada there are enough votes from Trudeau’s Liberals and the leftist opposition New Democrats to ensure this latest handgun proposal becomes law later this year. How effective will it be in reducing gun violence? It will be years before that question can be answered.
Tensions rising between DRC and Rwanda
The Rwandan genocide ended in 1994, but its ripple effects continue today in the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo. On Monday, hundreds of people took to the streets of the DRC’s capital, Kinshasa, to call out Rwanda for allegedly supporting the notorious M23 rebels. (This armed group is made up of ethnic Tutsis who fled Hutu massacres in Rwanda some 28 years ago, and is currently staging its largest offensive in almost a decade.) The protesters want to kick out the Rwandan ambassador following a recent uptick in M23 violence in the eastern DRC, which has suffered near-constant conflict since Rwandan forces began crossing the border to go after escaped Hutu génocidaires. Rwanda, for its part, denies backing the M23 and on Saturday accused the DRC of being behind the kidnapping of two Rwandan soldiers by the FDLR, an anti-Rwanda Hutu armed group that operates inside the DRC and opposes the M23. If this all was not complicated enough, Ugandan forces recently entered the same region on a joint mission with the Congolese military to fight the Allied Democratic Forces, a jihadist outfit blamed for a string of attacks on civilians. We'll keep an eye on how this very messy situation plays out.
This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Subscribe for your free daily Signal today.
What We're Watching: COVID back in Vietnam, more Scots want independence, DRC violence spikes
Vietnam vs coronavirus (round 2): After going three months with no local transmissions of COVID-19, Vietnam is worried about a resurgence of the disease after a recent outbreak in the coastal city of Da Nang that has already spread to 11 other locations throughout the country. Authorities in Vietnam — widely considered a global success story in handling the pandemic thanks to its aggressive testing, contact-tracing and quarantines — believe the Da Nang outbreak is tied to an influx of domestic tourism there after lockdown restrictions were recently eased by the government. As a precaution, they have converted a 1,000-seat Da Nang sports stadium into a field hospital to treat the sick in case local hospitals become overwhelmed. More than 1,000 medical personnel, assisted by Cuban doctors, have been sent there to screen residents, and the capital Hanoi plans to test 72,000 people who recently returned from Da Nang. Will Vietnam prevail again in its second battle against COVID-19?
Scottish independence pressures: Support for Scottish independence has surged to 53 percent in a new YouGov poll, as nationalists capitalize on what many perceive to be Scotland's much better response to the coronavirus pandemic than that of the UK government in London. Six years ago, a small majority of Scots voted to remain part of the UK in an independence vote that ended 55/45. But even before COVID-19 struck, Brexit — which was unpopular in Scotland — stoked calls for a second referendum. The question now is whether British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will agree to hold another plebiscite on Scottish independence. So far he's rejected the possibility, and his Conservative Party's comfortable majority in parliament means he's under little pressure to change his mind. But if the pro-referendum Scottish National Party sweeps next year's parliamentary election in Scotland (as expected), things could get more interesting.
Violent escalation in the DRC: Over 1,300 people have died in attacks by different armed groups in the resource-rich eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in the first six months of 2020, almost triple the amount of deaths compared with the same period last year. The violence is particularly intense in Ituri, a gold mining region where the Hema ethnic group, who are predominantly herders, are fighting Lendu sedentary farmers (19 civilians were killed in Ituri this past weekend alone). In 2003, a bloody ethnic conflict in Ituri prompted the European Union to deploy its first foreign peacekeeping mission, while the UN has warned that such attacks could be considered crimes against humanity. But such violence is not new for the people of DRC, where dozens of armed militias have been terrorizing local populations for over 30 years and war over control of mining resources has displaced over 5 million people since the early 1990s.
What We're Watching: Hong Kong's end, the Belgian King's "apology," a small swatch of justice for the Rohingya
Hong Kong's end? Last month we mulled the question: is Hong Kong as we know it over? As of yesterday, the answer is: yes. China has now implemented a new national security law for the city, which criminalizes secession and collusion with foreign forces. The law in effect ends the autonomy granted (by international agreement) to Hong Kong when it reverted from British control to Chinese rule in 1997. Critics fear it will be used to stamp out the remnants of the pro-democracy protests that erupted last year in response to a separate attempt by Beijing to expand its writ over the city. We're watching to see what the city's fearless but increasingly encircled protesters do now. And we're also eyeing the reaction from abroad. Washington has begun rescinding Hong Kong's special trade and investment privileges, and will now treat the city the way it treats the rest of China. The move is meant to punish Beijing, but unlike twenty years ago when Hong Kong accounted for a fifth of China's economy, today it's less than four percent. Those who suffer most may be Hong Kongers themselves.
Belgium reckons with racial injustice: Recent protests in the United States have caused countries around the world to take a hard look at racial injustice within their own societies. In Belgium, following anti-racism protests in the capital, King Philippe sent a letter on Tuesday to the Democratic Republic of the Congo acknowledging atrocities committed during Belgium's half century colonial rule there. The letter, sent to Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi on the 60th anniversary of his country's independence, acknowledged Belgium's brutal legacy in the country formerly known as Congo Free State, which has contributed to the country's post-independence conflict and economic stagnation. Belgium's government also pledged to establish a parliamentary commission to scrutinize its colonial past. However, some critics say that the gesture is merely symbolic because the King is not a member of Belgium's government and holds no real power over the country's foreign relations. They also note that it stopped short of issuing a formal apology for crimes committed.
A small step towards justice for the Rohingya: Despite evidence showing that Myanmar's military committed atrocities against the Rohingya Muslim minority in 2017 that caused some 750,000 refugees to flee to neighboring Bangladesh, no one from Myanmar's army has been held accountable for their brutal crimes — until now. In a rare move, a local court martial found three military officers guilty of genocide against the Rohingya in northern Rakhine state, the army announced Tuesday. Both the country's powerful military as well as Aung San Suu Kyi, the now-disgraced Nobel peace prize winner and de facto head of government, have long denied allegations of ethnic cleansing against the Rohingyas. However, after Myanmar faced charges of genocide at the International Court of Justice late last year, the country's leadership flippantly acknowledged "weakness in following instructions" in Rohingya enclaves and set up courts martial to investigate the alleged abuses. However, no details have since been provided on the three perpetrators or their sentences, raising fears that this has been a sham trial and that the officers will continue to evade justice.