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Members of the M23 rebel group stand guard at the opening ceremony of Caisse Generale d'epargne du Congo (CADECO) which will serve as the bank for the city of Goma where all banks have closed since the city was taken by the M23 rebels, in Goma, North Kivu province in the East of the Democratic Republic of Congo, April 7, 2025.
Does the Congo truce portend peace? Or a potential civil war?
The Democratic Republic of the Congo and an alliance of militias led by the notorious M23 rebels announced a ceasefire on Thursday after talks in Qatar and, after three years of violence, said they would work toward a permanent truce. Meanwhile, Congo will reportedly sign a broad declaration of principles on a minerals deal with Rwanda on Friday in Washington, DC. The UN, US, EU, and other governments accuse Rwanda of using M23 to control valuable mines in Congo, but Washington is in the midst of talks with Congo to secure access to those same minerals, for which a deal with Rwanda is a necessary first step.
M23 recently seized the two principal cities in northeastern Congo, Goma, and Bukavu. At least six previous ceasefires in the long-running conflict have failed, turning hundreds of thousands of people into refugees and exposing them to violence, hunger, lack of shelter, and pervasive sexual exploitation.
Poorly trained and equipped Congolese troops have proven ineffective at fighting the rebels, and UN peacekeepers in the region are widely distrusted — even hated — by locals. A South African-led multinational force that held Goma for over a year was surrounded and pushed back in January; by March, they had completely withdrawn.
With Congo’s military situation in such disarray, a truce may be President Felix Tshisekedi’s only option, but his former ally-turned-archrival Joseph Kabila is proving a thorn in his side. Kabila, who ruled the DRC as president from 2001 to 2019 before going into exile in 2023, has reportedly been spotted in M23-controlled Goma. He has long accused Tshisekedi of mishandling the M23 situation — and we’re watching whether he uses this opportunity to launch a play for power.Democratic Republic of Congo's former President Joseph Kabila briefs the media after talks with South Africa's former President Thabo Mbeki at the Thabo Mbeki Foundation in Johannesburg, South Africa, on March 18, 2025.
DRC suspends ex-president Kabila’s party, charges him with treason
The Democratic Republic of Congo suspended former President Joseph Kabila’s People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy on Saturday, accusing it of complicity with the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels. The government has also charged Kabila with high treason and ordered the seizure of his assets.
Kabila ruled the DRC for 18 years after the assassination of his father Laurent Kabila in 2001 before handing power to Félix Tshisekedi following elections in 2019. The two men fell out in 2020, and Kabila has been living outside the country for the last couple of years. Kabila announced his impending return to the DRC in early April, and he reportedly returned on Friday, landing in the rebel-held eastern town of Goma, “to participate in peace efforts” amid ongoing talks between the DRC and M23. The rebel group has neither confirmed nor denied Kabila’s arrival.
Observers fear that Kabila’s engagement in peace negotiations could inflame tensions. Last year, Tshisekedi accused Kabila of backing the rebels and “preparing an insurrection” with them, a claim he denies.
On Saturday, Kabila’s spokesperson Barbara Nzimbiposted to X that the former president would soon address the nation. We’ll be watching what he says, how Tshisekedi responds, and whether the controversy impedes peace talks with M23.Protesters clash with riot police forces in front of the French Embassy in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, on Jan. 28, 2025.
Goma falls as embassies attacked in Kinshasa
M23 rebels have seized the airport in Goma, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and overrun the city in the worst sectarian violence since 2012. Streets are strewn with bodies, and there are reports of heavy gunfire, rape, and looting. Hospitals are under attack, and an Ebola research lab lost power, putting samples at risk, according to the International Committee of the Red Cross. Should the virus be released among the local population, the agency said the impact would be “unimaginable.”
Rwandan President Paul Kagame denies funding M23 or that Rwandan troops have entered Congo. But in the capital of Kinshasa, protests against alleged Rwandan interference turned violent on Tuesday, as crowds attacked the embassies of Rwanda, Uganda, Belgium, the Netherlands, and the US, accusing them of “complicity” in M23’s assault. Demonstrators also looted the Kenyan Embassy as well as local supermarkets, and set buildings on fire in a scene described as “total chaos.”
What’s the role of the West? The EU signed a strategic minerals deal with Rwanda in 2024 and the country has taken in asylum-seekers from Europe, making sanctions a complicated prospect and fueling accusations that the West is enabling the conflict to continue. France and the European Union condemned the attacks, as did US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a call with DRC President Felix Tshisekedi on Monday, but we’ll be watching what further action Western governments are prepared to take if the violence escalates.FILE PHOTO: Members of Burundi's National Defence Force (FDN), part of the troops of the East African Community Regional Force (EACRF), arrive to their deployment as part of a regional military operation targeting rebels, at the airport in Goma, North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo March 5, 2023.
Burundi detains troops who refused to fight in Congo
The Burundian government has been detaining troops for refusing orders to deploy to the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo, where Burundi is trying to stop the advances of a rebel group backed by Rwanda. The focus now is on the key border city of Goma.
The background: The area around Goma is rich in minerals, which armed groups and their backers have vied to control for years. The Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group began taking territory two years ago and funneling the spoils back to their patrons. UN peacekeepers have been largely unable to stop violence that has pushed hundreds of thousands of people into dangerous refugee camps.
A Kenyan-led intervention force managed to hold Goma last year, but withdrew in November, opening the way for M23. In December, Burundi intervened, but troops say they are fighting blind, hence the desertions. That leaves a South African-led coalition as Goma’s best bet.
What’s next? The fighting will be brutal, with 2 million residents of Goma in the crossfire. M23 is angling to cut the city off from the rest of the DRC. If they succeed, the rebels – and their Rwandan supporters – will be in a commanding position to extract concessions from Kinshasa.