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The global refugee crisis is at breaking point
The global refugee population is at historic highs, driven by war in Ukraine, violence in Sudan, state collapse in Venezuela, Taliban rule in Afghanistan, and a worsening humanitarian disaster in Gaza. On GZERO World, David Miliband, president & CEO of the International Rescue Committee joins Ian Bremmer to discuss the refugee crisis, the rise of forcibly displaced people around the world, and the crumbling humanitarian aid system amid the cancellation of USAID. What happens when the poorest countries are left to solve the hardest problems? And who–if anyone–is stepping up to help?
Miliband says that in 20 countries in crisis, there are more than 275 million people in humanitarian need, people that depend on international aid and organizations like the IRC to survive. There have been some recent positive developments—hundreds of thousands of refugees returning to Syria after the fall of the Assad regime, the potential for progress in the Eastern DRC, new technologies improving aid delivery. Still, Miliband says the world is facing a humanitarian crisis of historic proportions and unless the international community steps up, tens of millions will suffer.
“We face a new abnormal. 10 years ago, there were 50 to 60 million internally displaced people and refugees. Now, there's 120 million,” Miliband says, “The scale of impunity, the loss of international engagement is epic.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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Rethinking the refugee crisis and global aid system, with David Miliband
Listen: The number of people forced to flee their homes because of war, persecution, humanitarian disaster or political collapse topped 123 million people in 2024. That’s double what it was just 10 years ago. Yet just as the need has exploded, the global aid system is unraveling. On the GZERO World Podcast, David Miliband, president & CEO of the International Rescue Committee sits down with Ian Bremmer to discuss the growing crisis as the number of refugees continues to rise and the US, once the anchor of the global aid system, shuts down USAID and drastically pulls back foreign funding.
Miliband says we’re facing “a new abnormal,” with 275 million people facing humanitarian emergencies in 20 countries in crisis. The vast majority of displaced people are hosted in low and middle income countries, meaning the world’s poorest and most under-resourced places are shouldering a disproportionately high share of the burden. Miliband and Bremmer discuss the worsening humanitarian situation in places like Sudan and Gaza, the impact of US aid cuts, whether any nation or group of nations can fill the void, and where Miliband sees glimmers of hope amid so many intractable problems.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're publishedU.S. President Donald Trump speaks with Democratic Republic of the Congo's Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner and Rwanda's Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe on June 27, 2025.
Mining for peace: can a US-brokered deal end the conflict in the DRC?
On June 27, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda signed a US-mediated peace accord in Washington, D.C., to end decades of violence in the DRC’s resource-rich Great Lakes region. The agreement commits both nations to cease hostilities, withdraw troops, and to end support for armed groups operating in eastern Congo within 90 days.
But the deal also includes a critical minerals partnership with the United States, granting it privileged access to the region’s vast cobalt, lithium, tantalum, and coltan reserves. These essential components of electric vehicles, semiconductors, and defense applications have come increasingly under Chinese control due to Beijing’s backing of Rwandan mining and refining operations, something Washington wants to change.
So is this deal about ending conflict – or countering China? Will it hold? And do peace pacts now always come with a price?
A conflict rooted in ethnic strife and resource competition
Tensions between the DRC and Rwanda date back to the 1994 Rwandan genocide, in which the country’s Hutu majority killed as many as 800,000 people in the Tutsi minority. Many of the Hutu militias responsible for those crimes then fled to eastern Congo, sparking regional wars that killed millions more.
In the past year, the M23 militia, a Tutsi-linked group reportedly backed by Rwanda’s current Tutsi-led government, seized key mining territory in the DRC’s North Kivu province, displacing over 450,000 people. The United Nations and human rights groups say Rwanda is using M23 to plunder Congolese minerals, a charge the Rwandan government denies. The conflict has killed thousands and displaced as many as 2 million people.
What’s in the peace deal – and what isn’t
The agreement includes a framework titled “Critical Minerals for Security and Peace,” which allows US companies to invest in Congolese mining and processing under joint governance with Rwanda. The region’s mineral wealth is estimated at $24 trillion.
Human rights watchdogs warn, however, that the deal lacks enforcement and oversight. It also doesn’t include provisions for accountability over war crimes, sexual violence, or illegal mining.
Will the deal last?
There are roadblocks ahead. The M23 group itself was not party to the agreement, and has rejected its terms. And neither Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi nor Rwandan President Paul Kagame were present at the signing ceremony, sending their foreign ministers instead; the two leaders will reportedly meet later with US President Donald Trump. Qatar, which hosted talks between the DRC and M23 in early June, did attend the signing ceremony and has pledged to continue diplomatic efforts in the region.
According to Tresor Kibangula, a political analyst at Congo's Ebuteli research institute, the deal imparts "a strategic message: securing the east also means securing investments.” But in a conflict with such deep roots, he questions whether the “economic logic” alone will suffice to bring a lasting peace.
Members of the M23 rebel group stand guard at the opening ceremony of Caisse Generale d'epargne du Congo (CADECO) which will serve as the bank for the city of Goma where all banks have closed since the city was taken by the M23 rebels, in Goma, North Kivu province in the East of the Democratic Republic of Congo, April 7, 2025.
Does the Congo truce portend peace? Or a potential civil war?
The Democratic Republic of the Congo and an alliance of militias led by the notorious M23 rebels announced a ceasefire on Thursday after talks in Qatar and, after three years of violence, said they would work toward a permanent truce. Meanwhile, Congo will reportedly sign a broad declaration of principles on a minerals deal with Rwanda on Friday in Washington, DC. The UN, US, EU, and other governments accuse Rwanda of using M23 to control valuable mines in Congo, but Washington is in the midst of talks with Congo to secure access to those same minerals, for which a deal with Rwanda is a necessary first step.
M23 recently seized the two principal cities in northeastern Congo, Goma, and Bukavu. At least six previous ceasefires in the long-running conflict have failed, turning hundreds of thousands of people into refugees and exposing them to violence, hunger, lack of shelter, and pervasive sexual exploitation.
Poorly trained and equipped Congolese troops have proven ineffective at fighting the rebels, and UN peacekeepers in the region are widely distrusted — even hated — by locals. A South African-led multinational force that held Goma for over a year was surrounded and pushed back in January; by March, they had completely withdrawn.
With Congo’s military situation in such disarray, a truce may be President Felix Tshisekedi’s only option, but his former ally-turned-archrival Joseph Kabila is proving a thorn in his side. Kabila, who ruled the DRC as president from 2001 to 2019 before going into exile in 2023, has reportedly been spotted in M23-controlled Goma. He has long accused Tshisekedi of mishandling the M23 situation — and we’re watching whether he uses this opportunity to launch a play for power.Democratic Republic of Congo's former President Joseph Kabila briefs the media after talks with South Africa's former President Thabo Mbeki at the Thabo Mbeki Foundation in Johannesburg, South Africa, on March 18, 2025.
DRC suspends ex-president Kabila’s party, charges him with treason
The Democratic Republic of Congo suspended former President Joseph Kabila’s People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy on Saturday, accusing it of complicity with the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels. The government has also charged Kabila with high treason and ordered the seizure of his assets.
Kabila ruled the DRC for 18 years after the assassination of his father Laurent Kabila in 2001 before handing power to Félix Tshisekedi following elections in 2019. The two men fell out in 2020, and Kabila has been living outside the country for the last couple of years. Kabila announced his impending return to the DRC in early April, and he reportedly returned on Friday, landing in the rebel-held eastern town of Goma, “to participate in peace efforts” amid ongoing talks between the DRC and M23. The rebel group has neither confirmed nor denied Kabila’s arrival.
Observers fear that Kabila’s engagement in peace negotiations could inflame tensions. Last year, Tshisekedi accused Kabila of backing the rebels and “preparing an insurrection” with them, a claim he denies.
On Saturday, Kabila’s spokesperson Barbara Nzimbi posted to X that the former president would soon address the nation. We’ll be watching what he says, how Tshisekedi responds, and whether the controversy impedes peace talks with M23.Democratic Republic of Congo's former President Joseph Kabila, attends a memorial service of Sam Nujoma, who became Namibia's first democratically elected president., February 28, 2025.
DRC crisis deepens as former President Kabila reenters the scene
Former Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila has announced his return to the country, vowing to halt the rapid advance of the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels who have seized significant territory in the country’s conflict-ridden east.
Background: Kabila left the DRC in 2018 amid intense public unrest following his refusal to step down at the end of his presidential term. Deadly protests eventually forced his departure, though he negotiated a deal allowing him to retain some influence from abroad, in cooperation with his successor, President Félix Tshisekedi.
Tshisekedi is none too happy about Kabila’s return and has resorted to political mudslinging, accusing the former president of having supported the M23 rebels during their recent capture of Bukavu, the DRC’s second-largest city. What’s more, Kabila has been holding talks with opposition leaders and civil society figures about the country’s political future as public dissatisfaction mounts over Tshisekedi’s response to the rebellion.
Kabila’s return sets the stage for a potential power struggle just as the DRC nears a major deal with the United States — an agreement exchanging access to critical minerals for security support. This deal is seen as crucial to strengthening Kinshasa’s position ahead of peace negotiations with M23, which were scheduled for Wednesday but got postponed.
Protesters hold Democratic Republic of Congo flags during a march to voice concerns about issues regarding the recent conflict in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), outside the parliament in Cape Town, South Africa, February 7, 2025.
Is the DRC on the path to peace?
On Tuesday, Angola offered to mediate an end to the conflict between the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group. Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi traveled to Angola to discuss a potential peace process, announcing that direct negotiations could come within days – something they have been loath to engage in the past. Meanwhile, the DRC is trying to strengthen its position by leveraging critical mineral reserves to secure backing from the Trump administration.
Background: M23 is one of nearly 100 armed groups operating in the mineral-rich DRC, where ongoing violence has created one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, displacing over 7 million people. In a swift three-week offensive last month, M23 seized two major cities and is now advancing across the eastern part of the country. Given the stakes, Tshisekedi hopes to secure US support by offering access to critical minerals in exchange for security.
The DRC holds an estimated $24 trillion in untapped mineral wealth. It is the world’s largest supplier of cobalt — a crucial material for defense, aerospace, and electric vehicle batteries — though most currently goes to China. The country also has significant lithium, tantalum, and uranium reserves, all vital to military technology.
The deal on the table: The DRC’s proposal combines security and minerals, offering the US companies favorable mining access in exchange for equipping Congolese forces and running military bases to protect supply routes. The White House signaled it's open to the offer, but even if they agree, US companies may consider it too risky to do business in the region unless a ceasefire is reached.Health workers bring a patient for surgery, at the CBCA Ndosho Hospital, a few days after the M23 rebel group seized the town of Goma, in Goma, North Kivu province in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, on Feb. 1, 2025.
Rebels advance, diplomacy stalls in the DRC
Is diplomacy an option at all? On Friday, the 16-nation South African Development Community called for a summit with eight member countries of the East African Community to “deliberate on the way forward regarding the security situation in the DRC. Rwandan leader Paul Kagame skipped the virtual meeting but was present at an earlier one on Wednesday, which DRC President Felix Tshisekedi did not attend. While Kigali expressed support for a summit, other states accuse it of backing M23 – something it denies.
How is the international community reacting? Germany has canceled aid discussions with Rwanda, and the United Kingdom is reevaluating its assistance as well. US President Donald Trump described the crisis this week as a “very serious problem,” and the State Department has advised US citizens to evacuate. But Western governments’ long-running support for Rwanda is tempering their response – creating the potential for China and Russia to gain more regional influence.