Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Democratic Republic of Congo's former President Joseph Kabila, attends a memorial service of Sam Nujoma, who became Namibia's first democratically elected president., February 28, 2025.
DRC crisis deepens as former President Kabila reenters the scene
Former Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila has announced his return to the country, vowing to halt the rapid advance of the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels who have seized significant territory in the country’s conflict-ridden east.
Background: Kabila left the DRC in 2018 amid intense public unrest following his refusal to step down at the end of his presidential term. Deadly protests eventually forced his departure, though he negotiated a deal allowing him to retain some influence from abroad, in cooperation with his successor, President Félix Tshisekedi.
Tshisekedi is none too happy about Kabila’s return and has resorted to political mudslinging, accusing the former president of having supported the M23 rebels during their recent capture of Bukavu, the DRC’s second-largest city. What’s more, Kabila has been holding talks with opposition leaders and civil society figures about the country’s political future as public dissatisfaction mounts over Tshisekedi’s response to the rebellion.
Kabila’s return sets the stage for a potential power struggle just as the DRC nears a major deal with the United States — an agreement exchanging access to critical minerals for security support. This deal is seen as crucial to strengthening Kinshasa’s position ahead of peace negotiations with M23, which were scheduled for Wednesday but got postponed.
Protesters hold Democratic Republic of Congo flags during a march to voice concerns about issues regarding the recent conflict in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), outside the parliament in Cape Town, South Africa, February 7, 2025.
Is the DRC on the path to peace?
On Tuesday, Angola offered to mediate an end to the conflict between the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group. Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi traveled to Angola to discuss a potential peace process, announcing that direct negotiations could come within days – something they have been loath to engage in the past. Meanwhile, the DRC is trying to strengthen its position by leveraging critical mineral reserves to secure backing from the Trump administration.
Background: M23 is one of nearly 100 armed groups operating in the mineral-rich DRC, where ongoing violence has created one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, displacing over 7 million people. In a swift three-week offensive last month, M23 seized two major cities and is now advancing across the eastern part of the country. Given the stakes, Tshisekedi hopes to secure US support by offering access to critical minerals in exchange for security.
The DRC holds an estimated $24 trillion in untapped mineral wealth. It is the world’s largest supplier of cobalt — a crucial material for defense, aerospace, and electric vehicle batteries — though most currently goes to China. The country also has significant lithium, tantalum, and uranium reserves, all vital to military technology.
The deal on the table: The DRC’s proposal combines security and minerals, offering the US companies favorable mining access in exchange for equipping Congolese forces and running military bases to protect supply routes. The White House signaled it's open to the offer, but even if they agree, US companies may consider it too risky to do business in the region unless a ceasefire is reached.Health workers bring a patient for surgery, at the CBCA Ndosho Hospital, a few days after the M23 rebel group seized the town of Goma, in Goma, North Kivu province in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, on Feb. 1, 2025.
Rebels advance, diplomacy stalls in the DRC
Is diplomacy an option at all? On Friday, the 16-nation South African Development Community called for a summit with eight member countries of the East African Community to “deliberate on the way forward regarding the security situation in the DRC. Rwandan leader Paul Kagame skipped the virtual meeting but was present at an earlier one on Wednesday, which DRC President Felix Tshisekedi did not attend. While Kigali expressed support for a summit, other states accuse it of backing M23 – something it denies.
How is the international community reacting? Germany has canceled aid discussions with Rwanda, and the United Kingdom is reevaluating its assistance as well. US President Donald Trump described the crisis this week as a “very serious problem,” and the State Department has advised US citizens to evacuate. But Western governments’ long-running support for Rwanda is tempering their response – creating the potential for China and Russia to gain more regional influence.
A Congolese soldier stands guard as he waits for the ceremony to repatriate the two bodies of South African soldiers killed in the ongoing war between M23 rebels and the Congolese army in Goma, North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo February 20, 2024.
Congo demands world boycott of Rwanda’s mineral exports
The Democratic Republic of Congo has called for a global embargo of mineral exports from Rwanda, which it accuses of backing rebel groups along their shared frontier. Congo says that because Rwanda allegedly uses violent proxies to seize mines in Congo before exporting their products as though they came from Rwanda, all Rwandan ore should be considered “blood minerals.”
Two weeks ago, the M23 rebels, which have strong ties to Rwanda’s ethnic Tutsi elites, seized the mining town of Rubaya, a town in eastern Congo with deposits of the mineral tantalum. Tantalum is used in all sorts of high-tech applications, from the camera in your phone to the semiconductor chips crucial to the AI revolution, but it’s hard to find, and Congo is one of the richest sources in the world. In a letter last month, the Congolese government directly confronted Apple over its alleged use of pilfered tantalum, among other minerals, but the tech giant says an internal review revealed no blood minerals in its supply chains.
The logic of the boycott is simple: If Rwanda cannot profit from its alleged support of armed rebel groups in eastern Congo, it has significantly less incentive to fund the violence there. Nearly 6 million Congolese have already had to flee fighting, with 1.4 million swelling the encircled city of Goma. If the world heeds Congo’s call — and no major economy thus far has assented — it could tackle one of the root causes of this long-running tragedy.Participants hold a candle light night vigil during a commemoration event, known as "Kwibuka" (Remembering), as Rwanda marks the 30th anniversary of the 1994 Genocide, at the BK arena in Kigali, Rwanda April 7, 2024.
30 years since Rwanda’s genocide, ethnic violence continues to plague Central Africa
Rwandan President Paul Kagame led a memorial ceremony on Sunday to mark the 30th anniversary of the genocide that killed more than a million people. Rwanda’s Hutu and Tutsi ethnic groups are no longer in open conflict in the country, but the legacy of the 100 days of slaughter that began on April 7, 1994, carries on in a conflict in the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo.
The background: Conflict between Rwanda’s major ethnic groups dates back to the colonial period, when German and Belgian authorities privileged ethnic Tutsis over Hutus for choice jobs and social status. Hutus dominated government after achieving independence in 1962, leading to a long-running war meant to end with a power-sharing agreement in 1993.
However, the day after Hutu President Juvenal Habyarimana’s plane was shot down on April 6, 1994, Hutu extremists launched a long-planned assault against ethnic Tutsis and moderate Hutus. Over the next 100 days, over a million people were butchered in the violence before an ethnic Tutsi militia, the Rwanda Patriotic Front, invaded and overthrew the genocidaires. The Tutsi victory pushed over two million Hutu civilians into exile in neighboring countries.
The present: One of those neighboring countries was the Democratic Republic of Congo (also home to an indigenous Hutu population). Rwandan Tutsi-led forces invaded their gargantuan neighbor twice to chase down alleged genocidaires between 1994 and 2003.
Now, Rwanda backs the Tutsi-led M23 militia in the DRC, which Kigali allegedly uses to extract valuable mineral resources. Rwanda, in turn, accuses Kinshasa of backing the Hutu-led Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, which seeks to overthrow Kagame. Civilians in the DRC are forced to bear the brunt of it: 250,000 civilians have been displaced in the last month as M23 presses toward the key city of Goma.