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A miniature statue of US President Donald Trump stands next to a model bunker-buster bomb, with the Iranian national flag in the background, in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada, on June 19, 2025.
What We’re Watching: US’s Iran decision postponed, Court OK’s Trump’s use of the national guard in LA, Rwanda detains top opposition leader
Trump gives himself, and Iran, two weeks
US President Donald Trump said Thursday that he will decide whether to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities “in the next two weeks,” a move that re-opens the door to negotiations, but also gives the US more time to position military forces for an operation (and the expected retaliation). Speaking of negotiations, European leaders were reportedly set to meet with Iranian officials in Geneva today to explore a diplomatic solution to the crisis. Meanwhile the war itself rages on: Tehran struck a hospital in Be’er Sheva in southern Israel on Thursday, while Israeli forces bombed the unfinished nuclear power plant at Arak and struck industrial targets in Northern Iran. And Tehran is now rushing to export as much oil as possible as fears grow that the war could result in closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s biggest oil customer? China.
Court clears Trump’s control of California National Guard
A federal appeals court ruled Thursday that Trump acted legally when he took control of the California National Guard despite objections from the state’s governor. The decision overturns a lower court ruling from last week. Trump “federalized” the National Guard to quell protests and riots against his hardline immigration enforcement. The LA unrest has calmed – Mayor Karen Bass rescinded a curfew on Tuesday – but the court’s ruling sets a precedent Trump can point to in future protests against immigration or other aspects of federal policy.
Rwanda’s opposition leader arrested
Rwandan authorities arrested prominent opposition leader Victoire Ingabire on Thursday, alleging that she created a criminal organization and incited public unrest. Lawyers for Ingabire, who was jailed from 2012 to 2018, say the move is politically motivated. President Paul Kagame, who has ruled Rwanda for three decades since the 1994 Genocide, has won plaudits for resurrecting the economy and keeping the peace. But he brooks no dissent – last year he won the presidential election with 99% of the vote.
Rwanda's incumbent President and presidential candidate for the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) Paul Kagame waves to his supporters as he arrives for his final campaign rally in Gahanga, Kicukiro district in Kigali, Rwanda, July 13, 2024.
Rwanda votes: Kagame looks set to secure fourth term
Rwandans are heading to the polls Monday for a presidential election, and while official results are not expected until next Saturday, President Paul Kagame – who won with a suspicious 98.8% of the vote in 2017 – looks set to secure a fourth term.
Kagame first came to power in 1994, when he led the rebel militia and overthrew the Hutu government responsible for the Rwandan genocide that killed over 800,000 people. He’s been in power for over three decades and oversaw the removal of term limits via referendum in 2015.
Praised for returning stability to the country, and for its emergence as a financial hub, Kagame has also come under increasing international scrutiny for alleged human rights violations and for backing rebel groups in the neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Voter turnout is expected to be high, but against a backdrop of crackdowns on the opposition and political dissent, there are valid questions as to how free and fair the election is. Only two opposition candidates – the same two allowed to face Kagame in 2017 – were cleared by the state-run electoral commission this time. Any candidate who stood even a chance of being competitive against Kagame was barred, imprisoned, or has reportedly since disappeared.
We’ll be watching to see the level of voter turnout and victory and to see how Kagame uses his next term to shape Rwanda’s foreign policy.
Participants hold a candle light night vigil during a commemoration event, known as "Kwibuka" (Remembering), as Rwanda marks the 30th anniversary of the 1994 Genocide, at the BK arena in Kigali, Rwanda April 7, 2024.
30 years since Rwanda’s genocide, ethnic violence continues to plague Central Africa
Rwandan President Paul Kagame led a memorial ceremony on Sunday to mark the 30th anniversary of the genocide that killed more than a million people. Rwanda’s Hutu and Tutsi ethnic groups are no longer in open conflict in the country, but the legacy of the 100 days of slaughter that began on April 7, 1994, carries on in a conflict in the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo.
The background: Conflict between Rwanda’s major ethnic groups dates back to the colonial period, when German and Belgian authorities privileged ethnic Tutsis over Hutus for choice jobs and social status. Hutus dominated government after achieving independence in 1962, leading to a long-running war meant to end with a power-sharing agreement in 1993.
However, the day after Hutu President Juvenal Habyarimana’s plane was shot down on April 6, 1994, Hutu extremists launched a long-planned assault against ethnic Tutsis and moderate Hutus. Over the next 100 days, over a million people were butchered in the violence before an ethnic Tutsi militia, the Rwanda Patriotic Front, invaded and overthrew the genocidaires. The Tutsi victory pushed over two million Hutu civilians into exile in neighboring countries.
The present: One of those neighboring countries was the Democratic Republic of Congo (also home to an indigenous Hutu population). Rwandan Tutsi-led forces invaded their gargantuan neighbor twice to chase down alleged genocidaires between 1994 and 2003.
Now, Rwanda backs the Tutsi-led M23 militia in the DRC, which Kigali allegedly uses to extract valuable mineral resources. Rwanda, in turn, accuses Kinshasa of backing the Hutu-led Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, which seeks to overthrow Kagame. Civilians in the DRC are forced to bear the brunt of it: 250,000 civilians have been displaced in the last month as M23 presses toward the key city of Goma.British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and President of Rwanda, Paul Kagame, meet at 10 Downing Street, London.
UK-Rwanda immigration deal on ice
The UK Court of Appeals in London declared on Thursday that a government plan to send asylum-seekers to Rwanda while their claims are being processed in the UK is unlawful, ruling that Rwanda could not be deemed as a safe third country.
What’s the so-called Rwanda agreement again? Last spring, former PM Boris Johnson announced a migration deal with Rwanda, whereby Kigali would take in tens of thousands of refugees while their asylum claims are being processed in exchange for wads of cash from the British government. This was Johnson’s response to an increase in migrants crossing the English Channel from France.
London has already paid 140 million pounds (US$170 million) to Rwanda even though the plan has so far been halted by legal proceedings, but more is on the way if the deal goes through. PM Rishi Sunak, for his part, has vowed to take the case to the Supreme Court.
Rwanda, which is relying on development cash, hit back, saying that it is “one of the safest countries in the world.” But that flies in the face of the country’s dismal human rights record (it’s not a fun place to be a journalist or an opposition figure challenging President Paul Kagame).
Indeed, this was a big blow to Sunak, who has made this policy one of his top five priorities. What’s more, with the Tories already hemorrhaging support ahead of next year’s general election, the Labour Party and Lib Dems are using the opportunity to draw attention to the hefty cost of relocating migrants under the deal amid a cost-of-living crisis.An elderly woman walks past a poster encouraging seniors to get vaccinated against COVID in Beijing.
What We’re Watching: Beijing vax mandate, DRC-Rwanda tensions
Beijing gets China's first COVID vax mandate
Somewhat late to the party compared to many parts of the world, China introduced on Wednesday its first COVID vaccine mandate in Beijing. Starting next week, residents of the capital will need to show proof of vax to enter most public spaces as authorities scramble to contain a new outbreak of a more infectious omicron subvariant. Oddly enough for an authoritarian state, China shunned mandates early in the pandemic because most people agreed to get vaxxed on their own, which helped keep the virus under control until late 2021. While nearly 90% of the population is fully vaccinated, inoculation rates among the elderly — those most vulnerable to becoming seriously ill or dying from COVID — are lower because many older Chinese adults are wary of getting jabs. What's more, China's vaccines are not as effective as Western mRNA jabs against new variants, so perhaps the goal of Beijing's mandate is to keep the unvaccinated elderly at home without implementing a citywide lockdown like in Shanghai. How will this affect Xi Jinping's zero-COVID policy? If major outbreaks are reported, expect other big Chinese cities to follow Beijing's lead.
DRC & Rwanda go head to head
This week, the Democratic Republic of the Congo President Félix Tshisekedi and his Rwandan counterpart, Paul Kagame, are meeting to discuss rising tensions along their shared border. In the eastern DRC, which borders both Rwanda and the Uganda, the M23 — a DRC rebel group claiming to defend DRC ethnic tutsis that wreaked havoc in the region in 2012 — has gained ground. Things heated up when the DRC recently blamed Rwanda for supporting the M23, which Rwanda denies. But conflict has been a constant in the region since the Rwandan genocide of 1994. Since then, the area has seen two wars, violence by more than 100 militant groups, peacekeeping missions, and humanitarian crises. Still, the eastern DRC remains one of the richest areas in the world for minerals used in technology, so it’s an area ripe for investment — and targeting. In April, the DRC tied itself to the economic interests of other countries in the region by joining the East African Community, which includes both Rwanda and Uganda. We'll keep an eye on how this messy situation plays out as the DRC and Rwandan leaders talk through their issues.Rwanda: The good, the bad, and the ugly
For many, Paul Rusesabagina became a household name after the release of the 2004 tear-jerker film Hotel Rwanda, which was set during the 1994 Rwandan genocide.
Rusesabagina, who used his influence as a hotel manager to save the lives of more than 1,000 Rwandans, has again made headlines in recent weeks after he was reportedly duped into boarding a flight to Kigali, Rwanda's capital, where he was promptly arrested on terrorism, arson, kidnapping and murder charges. Rusesabagina's supporters say he is innocent and that the move is retaliation against the former "hero" for his public criticism of President Paul Kagame, who has ruled the country with a strong hand since ending the civil war in the mid 1990s.
Indeed, this case reflects the full scope of complexities underpinning contemporary Rwandan politics and society.
Paul Kagame: A "benevolent dictator"
Much of Kagame's worldview was formed during his formative years growing up in a Ugandan refugee camp. An ethnic Tutsi, Kagame was one of hundreds of thousands who fled during the country's decades-long civil war to escape violent attacks by the Hutu-led government.
In the waning days of the Rwandan genocide — during which Tutsis were systematically raped, tortured and murdered by their Hutu neighbors, and some 1 million Rwandans were killed — Paul Kagame commanded the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RFP), a Tutsi militia that eventually ended the Hutus' murderous campaign, emerging as the most powerful political force in post-conflict Rwanda. Kagame became president in 2000.
Since then, Kagame has been credited with overseeing a period of stability and economic prosperity after one of the world's bloodiest conflicts, but critics accuse him of widespread human rights abuses.
Internal perceptions
While many Rwandans revere Kagame for his role in ending the conflict and then putting Rwanda on the map as one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa, and one of the best places to do business in the world (in the World Bank's 2019 "Doing Business" report it ranked 29th out of 190 countries), he is also widely viewed as a strongman known for suppressing dissenting views and creating an atmosphere of growing mistrust and fear.
Indeed, politically motivated killings and enforced disappearances of high-profile political opponents in the years since Kagame took power are well documented, while human rights groups have long denounced arbitrary arrests and torture of Rwandans who dare to criticize the government.
Many Rwandans also lament the concentration of power amongst a small group of political elite who are loyal to the president. Kagame's reelection in 2017 — when he claimed to have reaped a fanciful 99 percent of the vote — was seen by many as a sham, reflective of the oppressive political environment the RFP has cultivated. Importantly, this contested election came just two years after Kagame held a referendum overriding term limits that would allow him to stay at the helm until 2034. (Vladimir Putin seemed to find this move inspiring, following suit this year.)
External perceptions
The international development community, and much of the West, have lauded Kagame for steering the country through a period of profound economic growth that's lifted at least 1 million people out of poverty. Meanwhile, Kagame's focus on expanding female representation in politics — over 60 percent of the country's lawmakers are women — has also endeared him to leaders in Europe and the US. (When US President Donald Trump met with his Rwandan counterpart in 2018, he praised Kagame's "absolutely terrific" leadership and said: "It's a great honor to have you as a friend." )
Additionally, the Kagame government's focus on promotion of new technologies and environmental policy (in 2019, Rwanda became the first African country to introduce a complete ban on all single-use plastics) has led to strong partnerships with economic heavyweights like Germany. The two countries recently created a joint pilot project to introduce electric cars to Rwanda, with plans to expand the electronic automotive industry throughout the region.
To be sure, while some Western leaders have condemned Kagame for his human rights record in the past — with Washington going so far as to cut military aid to Rwanda in 2012, citing the government's support for violent militias in the Democratic Republic of the Congo — most have been willing to look the other way because of the country's economic potential. (In the late1990s, leaders including US President Bill Clinton and the UK's Tony Blair repeatedly praised Kagame's leadership as visionary.)
A complex legacy
Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, the Russian writer, philosopher and dissident, once said: "The battle between good and evil runs through the heart of every man." While Paul Kagame has pioneered reforms that have helped stabilize a war-torn country, many believe that his oppressive tactics have led to continued pain and suffering, making it hard for Rwanda's post-genocide society to fully heal.