We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
“Health is a human right”: How the world can make up progress lost to COVID
The state of public health in the developing world bears some deep scars from the COVID-19 pandemic. Over the past three years, immunization rates have dropped to levels not seen in three decades. 2 billion people are facing "catastrophic or impoverishing" health spending worldwide according to the World Health Organization. And governments in the Global South are taking on more and more debt at the expense of investment in health and social services.
Kate Dodson, the Vice President of Global Health Strategy at the UN Foundation, is on the frontlines of the fight to give the most vulnerable people in the world access to proper healthcare. She works to connect experts and innovators with the UN, and find resources to support their work.
She’s calling on governments to invest in basic elements of public health, including primary care access, and properly remunerating healthcare workers — the majority of whom are women, worldwide. And more fundamentally, she wants leaders to treat health as a human right that all deserve to enjoy.
More from Global Stage: https://www.gzeromedia.com/global-stage/
- Can surveillance prevent the next pandemic? ›
- Highlights from our live discussion on post-pandemic health security ›
- Eris on the rise ahead of predicted fall COVID wave ›
- China's COVID lockdowns made its people depressed and hurt its economy ›
- Ian Explains: Is the world better today thanks to human progress? - GZERO Media ›
- How can the world build back better public health after COVID? - GZERO Media ›
- Is life better than ever for the human race? - GZERO Media ›
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro leaves his home following a search operation in Brasilia.
Bolsonaro’s home raided over alleged COVID vax fraud
Bolsonaro has long maintained that he never got the shot, which he once said could turn people into crocodiles. But late last year, his official status was reportedly changed to “vaccinated,” possibly to facilitate entry to the US, where he spent a few months in South Florida licking his wounds, eating KFC, and hanging with the Trumps after narrowly losing his reelection bid to left-wing nemesis Lula.
Bolsonaro has denied any wrongdoing, but vaccine records seem like a mere foot fault compared to some of the other legal troubles stalking the right-wing firebrand. He’s facing separate probes over allegedly inciting the Jan. 8 riots in Brasilia, illegally profiting by selling jewels gifted to him by Saudi Arabia, and potentially violating the law by seeking to undermine the credibility of the country’s electoral systems last year.
We’re waiting to see what charges are ultimately leveled at Bolsonaro, and we remind you that although he is out of power, his party controls the largest number of seats in Parliament. He’s also the face of the opposition in a deeply polarized country.
What’s next for the WHO?
As the World Health Organization celebrates its 75th anniversary on April 7, it is preparing to put the COVID-19 pandemic behind it by declaring an end to the public health emergency sometime later this year. Yet it won’t be easy for the UN agency to rehabilitate its reputation after the criticism received for its handling of the world’s worst health crisis in 100 years.
We asked Eurasia Group public health expert Laura Yasaitis to provide some perspective on the WHO’s long history and where it goes after COVID.
As it turns 75, what are the WHO's main accomplishments?
Probably the most outstanding was the complete eradication of smallpox, a remarkable example of international coordination to achieve a public health goal. WHO officials worked with countries to encourage widespread vaccination, as well as donations of the vaccine, and the US and the Soviet Union were both major donors. WHO consultants were dispatched around the world to identify and respond to outbreaks quickly, even in war-torn and poverty-stricken locations such as Somalia, which saw the last natural case in 1977.
The WHO’s efforts to improve childhood vaccination around the globe have also brought about the near eradication of polio, while efforts to prevent and treat malaria have helped dramatically reduce the range of the disease and improve outcomes for those infected.
And failures?
As the organization has grown and taken on an expanded mission, it has become overstretched and overly bureaucratic. These shortcomings were blamed for the slow response to the Ebola outbreak that began in West Africa in 2014 and lasted until 2016.
Yet many of the organization’s perceived failures can be traced to the constraints within which it operates. Only 16% of its budget comes in the form of dues. The rest comes from large donors and is earmarked for specific causes, which means the WHO is limited in pursuing its own priorities. Furthermore, it relies on the goodwill of countries to follow its recommendations; even the legally binding International Health Regulations, which require reporting of specific diseases and public health events, are essentially unenforceable.
What did the WHO do well during the pandemic?
The WHO helped coordinate data sharing among countries, providing invaluable information that helped experts to track and better understand the novel virus. Without a central source of trusted scientific information, it may have taken the world far longer to understand what it was up against. The WHO also co-led COVAX, which aimed to equitably distribute COVID vaccines to all countries, rich or poor. While the group fell far short of this goal – largely because wealthy nations hoarded the initial production of most vaccines – the framework it established may provide a model for future pandemics.
What did it not do so well?
The WHO has been faulted – including by an independent committee it established to review its response – for waiting an extra week before declaring a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, the highest level of emergency. Much of the delay was attributed to its regulations on reporting of public health incidents, which forced slow consideration of the data. These regulations also recommend against declarations that could hurt a country’s economic activity. Furthermore, the organization’s messaging – it does not officially define the term “pandemic” and didn’t use the term until two months after a PHEIC was declared – was faulted for its lack of urgency. That may have contributed to inconsistent and ineffective responses at the national level.
What about its relationship with China?
The WHO was accused of unwarranted deference to China early in the pandemic, both in delaying its PHEIC declaration, and in the public praise lavished on the country for its initial response. The most prominent criticism came from Donald Trump, who in July 2020 declared that the US would withdraw from the organization (though US President Joe Biden reversed the decision when he took office). The WHO-China relationship soured somewhat after the first phase of an investigation into the virus’s origins, which included the lab leak theory, even if “extremely unlikely”; China vehemently opposed any mention of the possibility. Then, earlier this year, China refused to release data revealing the scale of a massive outbreak, despite its legally binding commitments to do so. Yet WHO officials praised the limited releases of data, and largely avoided criticizing the country despite what international experts asserted were highly inaccurate official infection and mortality rates.
Will we ever know where the virus came from?
At this point, it’s unlikely, at least with enough certainty to convince the vast majority of skeptics given that the science has become highly politicized. China has stonewalled further WHO-led investigations after the lab-leak theory was included in the phase one report, forcing the WHO to quietly abandon plans for additional study. Other independent research continues; for example, data released last month supported animal-human transmission as the original source. However, given the length of time that has passed, and the many people who have made up their minds on both sides, it’s far more likely that the issue will continue to be a political football.
In light of all this, how is the WHO reforming itself?
There have been many calls for reforming the WHO and its powers to grant it more authority to investigate and respond to disease outbreaks. However, given the importance of assuring member states’ sovereignty, and the political and economic implications of being named the source of a major disease outbreak, establishing an independent, powerful, WHO remains an uphill battle. Nonetheless, some reforms are being pursued that will allow increased independence. It was recently announced that sources of the organization’s funding would shift over time to be at least 50% comprised of membership dues by 2030-2031.
What is the WHO doing to ensure it's better prepared for the next pandemic?
The WHO is trying to learn from the mistakes of the past few years. The most ambitious effort may come in the form of a new legally binding pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response treaty. A draft presented in February lays out a framework to ensure equitable distribution of vaccines and treatments and provide incentives for poor countries to participate in the data sharing that is needed. However, a big question is whether the provisions will be backed by adequate enforcement mechanisms. The WHO’s authority and credibility has been badly damaged by the pandemic, a situation that will need to be rectified if it is to lead a global health response to the next pandemic.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor, Eurasia Group.
An elderly woman walks past a poster encouraging seniors to get vaccinated against COVID in Beijing.
What We’re Watching: Beijing vax mandate, DRC-Rwanda tensions
Beijing gets China's first COVID vax mandate
Somewhat late to the party compared to many parts of the world, China introduced on Wednesday its first COVID vaccine mandate in Beijing. Starting next week, residents of the capital will need to show proof of vax to enter most public spaces as authorities scramble to contain a new outbreak of a more infectious omicron subvariant. Oddly enough for an authoritarian state, China shunned mandates early in the pandemic because most people agreed to get vaxxed on their own, which helped keep the virus under control until late 2021. While nearly 90% of the population is fully vaccinated, inoculation rates among the elderly — those most vulnerable to becoming seriously ill or dying from COVID — are lower because many older Chinese adults are wary of getting jabs. What's more, China's vaccines are not as effective as Western mRNA jabs against new variants, so perhaps the goal of Beijing's mandate is to keep the unvaccinated elderly at home without implementing a citywide lockdown like in Shanghai. How will this affect Xi Jinping's zero-COVID policy? If major outbreaks are reported, expect other big Chinese cities to follow Beijing's lead.
DRC & Rwanda go head to head
This week, the Democratic Republic of the Congo President Félix Tshisekedi and his Rwandan counterpart, Paul Kagame, are meeting to discuss rising tensions along their shared border. In the eastern DRC, which borders both Rwanda and the Uganda, the M23 — a DRC rebel group claiming to defend DRC ethnic tutsis that wreaked havoc in the region in 2012 — has gained ground. Things heated up when the DRC recently blamed Rwanda for supporting the M23, which Rwanda denies. But conflict has been a constant in the region since the Rwandan genocide of 1994. Since then, the area has seen two wars, violence by more than 100 militant groups, peacekeeping missions, and humanitarian crises. Still, the eastern DRC remains one of the richest areas in the world for minerals used in technology, so it’s an area ripe for investment — and targeting. In April, the DRC tied itself to the economic interests of other countries in the region by joining the East African Community, which includes both Rwanda and Uganda. We'll keep an eye on how this messy situation plays out as the DRC and Rwandan leaders talk through their issues.Podcast: How we overcome infectious disease with a public health renaissance
Listen: Former CDC chief Tom Frieden says he's stunned by how infectious COVID is compared to other diseases. The pandemic isn't over yet, he tells Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World podcast, thanks to long COVID plus the fact that we can't predict how the virus will play out in the future. Frieden's advice for everyone is to get vaxxed and boosted, to "keep yourself out of the hospital and, quite frankly, out of the morgue," since new variants could emerge, making the virus more deadly.
He also shares his thoughts on why China needs to transition to "almost" zero-COVID, the post-pandemic need to invest more in public health, and whether we should worry about monkeypox. Until we put more money toward research, he adds, we won't be able to control infectious diseases — rather, they will continue to control us.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.TRANSCRIPT: How we overcome infectious disease with a public health renaissance
Dr Tom Frieden:
We can't predict what will happen next with COVID, but we can predict with absolute certainty that either a new variant of COVID or another virus is going to create another massive threat to world health in the future that we can be much better prepared for.
Ian Bremmer:
Hello, and welcome to the GZERO World Podcast. This is where you'll find extended versions of my interviews on public television. I'm Ian Bremmer, and today between cratering global markets, record-breaking inflation, a war in Ukraine and midterm elections in the United States, there's a lot dominating the headlines these days. But hey, the fact that there is even other news in the papers today is a sign of just how far the world has come since 2020 when a new virus entered our lives. The World Health Organization estimates that more than 15 million people likely died as a result of COVID-19 in the first two years of the pandemic. And while the coronavirus is no longer the only story in town, the global fight against the disease is far from over. This week I speak with Dr. Tom Frieden. He's former director of the Centers for Disease Control for a look at where we are today in our fight against the coronavirus. Let's do this.
Announcer:
The GZERO World Podcast is brought to you by our founding sponsor, First Republic. First Republic, a private bank and wealth management company, places clients needs first by providing responsive, relevant, and customized solutions. Visit firstrepublic.com to learn more.
The GZERO World Podcast is also brought to you by Foreign Policy. The next time you order some calamari, stop for a minute and think, where does this actually come from? In The Catch, a new podcast from our friends at Foreign Policy, get a behind the scenes look at the state of global fishing by tracking squid from the waters off the coast of Peru, to the processing plants, all the way to restaurants and finally, your plate. Follow and listen to The Catch wherever you get your podcasts.
Ian Bremmer:
Dr. Tom Frieden, thanks for joining us on GZERO World.
Dr Tom Frieden:
It's great to be here with you.
Ian Bremmer:
So let me start of course with how you are thinking about the pandemic today because of course you and I were talking about nothing but for just about two years and now we're feeling more comfortable walking around without masks. We're mostly vaccinated, at least those of us that think that's important and we really desperately want this to be in the rearview mirror. Tell us how much that reflects accurately on the state of the pandemic as you see it, at least in the United States, in Europe and the advanced industrial democracies.
Dr Tom Frieden:
In countries where there has been access to vaccination and there's been a lot of exposure already. We're in a different world right now. With the Omicron variants, the COVID virus is not deadlier on a person by person basis than influenza. And although we underreact to influenza every year, the fact is that if you're vaccinated and if you're vulnerable and get sick, you get Paxlovid, you're probably going to do pretty well with two big unknowns. The first is long COVID. Lots of people suffering with long COVID. We don't understand it well. We don't know how to treat it. We don't know what the future will hold for it. So something can be taken seriously. And second, we don't know what the future will hold for COVID. Bottom line, Ian, we can't predict what will happen next with COVID, but we can predict with absolute certainty that either a new variant of COVID or another virus is going to create another massive threat to world health in the future, that we can be much better prepared for.
Ian Bremmer:
We know that the variants continue to change and that as a consequence vaccines that we get today really aren't very great at stopping people from contracting COVID. What does it look like for you going forward? What kind of recommendations do you think are likely about the future of how frequently and what kind of vaccines people will be taking?
Dr Tom Frieden:
The bottom line is that people should get the vaccines that are available now. Now, when they're eligible and recommended to have them. We don't know what the future will hold. It may be that there's an annual vaccination. It may be that the combination of vaccination and prior infection protects you for a few years. It may be that we have what's called a multivalent vaccine against several different strains or even a combination of COVID and influenza vaccines, but that's all speculative about the future. What we know now is that staying up to date with your vaccination is the single most effective thing that you can do to keep yourself out of the hospital, and quite frankly, out of the morgue.
Ian Bremmer:
Now we know that we're seeing continually millions upon millions upon millions of cases all the time. We know how transmissible this disease is. In your view, does that make it much more likely that we are going to see even more transmissible variants? Does it also make it more plausible that we could see variants that could be much more deadly than Omicron?
Dr Tom Frieden:
I have to say, Ian, I've been stunned by how infectious this virus was and has become. It started out really infectious compared to other viruses, and then it became even more infectious and then it became even more infectious still. It's impressive. If we look at the single most infectious virus known, it's probably measles and measles is pretty stunning. Measles will infect essentially everyone in a immune naive population. And yet measles has a doubling time in the population of about 8 to 10 days, Omicron 2 days. So you're seeing just stunningly infectious virus. If you look at December and January, more than a million Americans were getting infected every single day. Now, there's nothing to say that a future highly infectious variant won't be deadlier than Delta, which was quite deadly. That's why we have to be prepared. Anyone who predicts with certainty and confidence, what's going to happen more than about three or four weeks out with COVID, frankly Ian, they don't know what they're talking about.
Ian Bremmer:
So it's completely plausible that we could, in your mind, that in the next six, 12 months really at any time going forward, that we could have a new variant that spreads like wildfire, but is actually much, much more lethal.
Dr Tom Frieden:
Not only is that possible, but it's also possible that that variant would be what's called immune escape. That means that it really doesn't respond very well to our vaccines. Currently our vaccines, although they don't protect against infection beyond a few months, very well, do a great job protecting against severe disease, hospitalization, and death. But it's possible that won't always be the case. Whether or not that happens with a future variant of COVID, we are definitely at risk of that happening with an influenza variant or some other viral disease.
Ian Bremmer:
Now, Tom, you said that you were really surprised by how infectious this disease has become. I'll tell you who else was really surprised, the Chinese government, and I'm wondering what you would advise them to do given what is clearly a failed zero-COVID policy in the face of their existing vaccines and the transmissibility of omicron, but also recognizing how it appears impossible for them to get away from it.
Dr Tom Frieden:
So I think you have to step back and look at how China has done with the virus. Initially, there was a clear failure in recognition and rapid response. Their response after that was stunning, right? And if they had a death rate like most other countries in the world, there would be a million people dead now in China, who are alive today. They have two problems, at least. One of them is that they don't yet have highly effective vaccines available. And second, they, like many countries in the world, including in the US, have a fair amount of vaccine hesitancy or people who are not very willing or not very interested in taking vaccines, particularly among the elderly. And if you look at what happened in Hong Kong, it's just stunning. Many of us thought, oh, Omicron must be a pretty wimpy virus, doesn't cause a lot of illness and death. Well, that was if it affects people who have either been infected before or had vaccination.
Omicron in Hong Kong represented what happens in an immune naive population and it was devastating. And if it's that devastating in all of China, that would be millions of deaths. So they're in a bind, they don't have the most effective vaccines and they don't have the most vulnerable people vaccinated. Those I think, are the two things to focus on. Get effective vaccines to the most vulnerable. And then you'll be able to have a policy that is not zero COVID infections, but aim for zero or close to zero COVID deaths, which is, for example, what Singapore has done.
Ian Bremmer:
So they are, I mean, realistically speaking, even if we don't have any of the downside scenarios for future COVID variants, they are months and months and months away from being able to effectively respond here.
Dr Tom Frieden:
I wouldn't underestimate the capacities of the Chinese government. They test entire cities of 10 million people in a few days. So the ability to get very effective vaccines to those who need it most in a short period of time is certainly within their grasp.
Ian Bremmer:
Do you have any idea why it is that they've refused to, it's the one major country in the world, if they wanted to have vaccine mandates, they could certainly impose them? Is it because they don't have vaccines that are effective yet themselves? Do you have any view on that?
Dr Tom Frieden:
I don't know what their thinking is. Obviously vaccination in China has a long history, and as CDC director, we had a very close partnership with the Chinese government to look at all of their vaccination policies to improve their vaccination standards. Vaccines do require a higher threshold, unlike a medication which you give to someone who's sick, you're giving a vaccination to someone who's not sick. And so you really need to make sure that it's safe and that it's effective.
Ian Bremmer:
So tell me, I mean, now that we've been through a couple years and now that you're saying we can, at least for now in the US start to look at this with some caveats, as a flu. What are the lessons that you think we've learned and that we haven't learned, but we need to learn for this horrible pandemic?
Dr Tom Frieden:
Ian, people always talk about lessons learned. I think we should be talking about lessons that we'd better learn. And I think there are three of them for COVID, I'll call them the three Rs, that we need a renaissance in our public health system. We need a robust primary healthcare system, and we need resilient populations in terms of health resilience and in terms of societal resilience.
And just briefly taking those one by one, our renaissance in public health. We need to invest in public health. We need to make sure state, local, city, county levels are aligned along with global levels. We need to make sure that public health has good engagement with communities, all communities in our society in terms of primary healthcare, unless we have good primary healthcare, and we do not in this country, unless we do, we're not going to be able to detect things promptly. We can't diagnose and treat, use Paxlovid, for example. We can't get people vaccinated effectively. We still have tens of millions of vulnerable people who are not up-to-date with their vaccination. Primary healthcare is so important, but so underfunded in our system.
And third is resilient populations. That means healthier. So chronic diseases in good care, tobacco use decreasing hypertension control, control diabetes in control. That means that if there is an infectious disease shock, we're more likely to be able to withstand it. And resilient in terms of trust. Trust is the one thing that you cannot surge during an emergency. We need to rebuild that. We need to rebuild some of our common platform of understanding. Moynihan used to say you're entitled to your own opinions, but not to your own facts. Now it seems like people feel entitled to their own facts. We need to get back to a world where we can agree on the facts and disagree on things that are not factual.
Ian Bremmer:
Now look, I mean, I saw the movie Contagion and I saw it again right at the beginning of the Pandemic and the CDC, they were heroes in that film. And at the beginning of the pandemic, it certainly looked like people like Dr. Fauci and the CDC were very widely respected in the United States. I don't think you can say that today. And you, you've just kind of in intimated that. Where do you think they've gone wrong and what concretely needs to happen? What could happen that could help to rebuild that trust for the American public?
Dr Tom Frieden:
Well, first, Ian, just about Contagion. It was filmed at CDC. I got to meet Matt Damon, Laurence Fishburne and others, which was pretty exciting. And the movie is pretty accurate. Interestingly, the one thing that many people criticized it for at the time was, "Oh, they'll never produce a vaccine so quickly during a pandemic." And here we are with mRNA Technologies and a stunningly effective vaccine.
In terms of rebuilding trust in the CDC and in government work more widely. It's very important that CDC reestablish its identity in separation from the White House, whoever's in the White House, because if all or most of the CDC press conferences are done as part of the White House, then a big part of the country, whichever side is in charge in the White House, is not going to believe what they say. CDC is in Atlanta, it has advantages and disadvantages, but that separation can be very powerful. Second, CDC needs to follow its own playbook as I think it's been increasingly doing. Be first, be right, be credible, be empathetic, and give people proven, practical things to do, to protect themselves and their family. And third, have some successes. Nothing succeeds like success. And as CDC, which is doing great work, which still has thousands and thousands of people who dedicate their lives to protecting Americans 24/7, as those successes become apparent, I think trust can be rebuilt.
Ian Bremmer:
Now, Tom, you've devoted your career post CDC to trying to advance public policy, understanding and action on the ground in the United States and around the world. I'm wondering, given the target rich environment that you now see what's top of resolves agenda in terms of where you think you can make a difference post-pandemic?
Dr Tom Frieden:
In terms of preventing the next pandemic? I have a concern. There's a lot of global discussion. What's the structure? What are some funding streams? What should WHO do? What should other organizations do? But I'm concerned that we may be losing the focus on countries, making sure that every country in the world is able to find, stop and prevent health threats promptly and having steady progress doing that. And that's where I think we really need to accelerate because we are in a real risk of going headlong into the neglect part of the panic/neglect cycle that we see with infectious disease outbreak, epidemic and pandemic after pandemic.
Ian Bremmer:
So Tom, how can countries know if they're improving along those lines?
Dr Tom Frieden:
What we find is that the key indicator is how quickly you found something and how quickly you stopped it. There's a 7-1-7 target that every outbreak would be found within seven days, reported within one, and all essential control measures in place within seven days. We've been working with half a dozen countries in Africa as well as countries elsewhere in the world. And this kind of an approach for every single outbreak quickly identifies the things that need to be fixed and quickly enables countries to improve their quality. The challenge is getting the resources quickly so that countries can make a difference with faster detection and fast response. And that might be a better lab system, that might be better reporting, that might be better connection between their public health program and their frontline clinicians. And progress is really possible.
We're seeing countries around the world drop the time from recognition from months to week, or weeks to days, or days to hours if they focus on it and continuously improve. And that metric of 7-1-7, which needs to be supported with resources for countries to accelerate progress once they identify the problems, that can be as transformational for global health as another metric, what's called 90-90-90 was for HIV. That HIV metric resulted in millions of additional people, effectively treated, millions of lives saved and reduced spread of HIV. 7-1-7 can do the same thing for deadly pandemics.
Ian Bremmer:
What's the spend priority here? I mean, how much of this is it new data systems? Is it new surveillance capabilities? Is it human capital? I mean, give me the priorities in terms of what you need to allow a sub-Saharan African country that potentially is going to be incubating an awful lot of these new diseases and among the poorest and weakest infrastructure in the world that gets them there.
Dr Tom Frieden:
Fundamentally, we need staff more than we need stuff. We need systems more than we need meetings. And we need to use real life as our drill more than we need tabletop exercises. And that means supporting staff in countries around the world to focus on preparedness day in and day out, and systematically look at each of their outbreaks, routine foodborne outbreaks, measles, yellow fever, there's no shortage unfortunately of outbreaks going on every day that can be used to identify the weak spots in a country's detection response system and then rapidly address those weak spots and improve preparedness. But it does require focus. What we've done at my group Resolve to Save Lives with half a dozen countries around the world is to put in acceleration teams or A teams embedded with the Ministry of Health, that focus just on helping that country become better prepared. And that needs to be the kind of intervention in countries all around the world. And what we find is there are terrific people in these countries. They know what needs to be done, they just don't have the resources and the focused time to enable the rapid progress that will benefit not only their country, but their neighbors and the world.
Ian Bremmer:
From what I remember, the A team that's pretty much the opposite of a tabletop exercise. So I'm I'm very glad to hear that. Tom, I want to ask you, how much unnecessary damage was done on the basis of lockdowns both more broadly, as well as say, for kids, for schools? Looking back on this over the last couple years, where do you think that there was really too much error on the other side?
Dr Tom Frieden:
Well, I was on record throughout of saying I didn't think schools should be closed. We knew from influenza that if you close schools, you're going to close them for a long time. And we knew that that would be devastating for educational outcomes and devastating for the economy. We also knew from the outset that outdoors was not a risk. And so stay at home was a wrong concept. The concept of not having close indoor spaces, I think those were the two biggest challenges in terms of going too far. But Ian, if you step back, fundamentally in the US, at least half of all of the deaths in 2020 could have been prevented by better lockdowns, smarter lockdowns, smarter closures that looked at what was happening. It's kind of like you see a hurricane coming, you need to know what to batten down and what not to, and then when it's gone, you can let up. So in 2020, more than half of all the deaths were from failure to implement public health measures. In 2021 and throughout 2022, more than half of old deaths have been from failure to reach everyone with vaccination.
Ian Bremmer:
Two and a half years of focusing on COVID, on the one hand, lot more money available for pandemic research and a lot going on in terms of mRNA and all of the infrastructure around that. I'm wondering though, when you have this much focus on one disease, are there areas that we've lost focus that we better not?
Dr Tom Frieden:
Absolutely. If you look at Africa, we have a big gap in, for example, tuberculosis diagnosis. And what that means is there are a lot of people out there who had tuberculosis, have tuberculosis, spread it to others, and we may be unfortunately dealing with the ramifications of that for years to come. So it's a big setback in some programs like the tuberculosis control program globally. It's also a setback for a lot of chronic care. One of the things that I think about a lot is high blood pressure. People take for granted that there's a lot of high blood pressure, but actually hypertension is a pandemic and it's deadlier than COVID, and it kills people at a younger age and it's more preventable and more treatable. And yet we're not doing that effectively. In the US We treat people with hypertension effectively only 44% of the time, despite trillions of dollars in healthcare. Globally, it's only 14% of the time, and yet the best healthcare systems are at 90% and the best countries are at 70%. So there are really important health programs that could save lots of lives that have absolutely been set back by the pandemic.
Ian Bremmer:
I really didn't want to hear about another disease that I hadn't heard of before, but monkeypox, there's way too many headlines, it bothers me. Should I care? Does it matter? Or can you at least tell us that this one doesn't matter?
Dr Tom Frieden:
Well, it certainly matters to people who have monkeypox and it matters to the communities in which it's spreading, including in up in many countries, men who have sex with men. It also matters that we don't know what's really happening in Africa with monkeypox because there hasn't been the kind of investment needed. There hasn't been the kind of support for people who've been doing research on monkeypox for 20 years. I traveled more than a decade ago to look at a monkeypox outbreak in DRC. The CDC had developed a new primer that could be used with the gen expert machine that was very effective at identifying monkeypox. But there are a lot of unknowns in how it spreads, where it's spreading, can it be controlled? Should we be using ring vaccination? And because there's a lot we don't know globally, there's a lot we don't know in places that it's spreading newly. We really are connected by the air we breathe, the water we drink, the food we eat, the planes we travel on. Anywhere in the world can connect with anywhere in the world within just a day or two. And unless we invest in better understanding and better control of infectious diseases, they will continue to too great a degree, to control us.
Ian Bremmer:
Okay, darn it, tom. You've convinced me that we need to pay attention to monkeypox. So tell me one big health scare out there that people worry about that we don't need to worry about, that's actually really overstated?
Dr Tom Frieden:
Well, there's a lot of them, right? So let's take coffee. Coffee is not bad for you. So people they go, public health you, you're going to take away all my fun. So there's a lot of things you can do that aren't bad for you. Drink coffee or tea. And by the way, getting physical activity is probably the single best thing you can do for yourself. Regular physical activity, a brisk walk, 30 minutes a day makes a huge difference to your health, mental health, physical health. There are health scares all the time. One of our challenges is that we've kind of lost the trust in the institution to say, this is big, this isn't big. And obviously if there's a problem that affects a few people severely, that is a severe problem for those people. So we never want to minimize something that has devastating personal consequences for some people. But you can still have a great fun life, lot of fun things to do, lot of enjoyable things to do that are healthy and will help you not just live longer, but live healthier, happier, and more fully.
Ian Bremmer:
You heard it from Tom Friedan, scalding hot coffee as much as you want. No problem. Right to it. Tom, thank you so much, man. Enjoyed seeing you and well, I'm sure we'll have you back soon.
Dr Tom Frieden:
Great to see you again, Ian. It's always a pleasure speaking with you.
Announcer 5:
That's it. For today's edition of the GZERO World Podcast, like what you've heard? Come check us out at gzeromedia.com and sign up for our newsletter Signal.
Announcer:
The GZERO World Podcast is brought to you by our founding sponsor, First Republic. First Republic, a private bank and wealth management company, places clients needs first by providing responsive, relevant, and customized solutions. Visit firstrepublic.com to learn more.
The GZERO World Podcast is also brought to you by Foreign Policy. The next time you order some calamari, stop for a minute and think, where does this actually come from? In The Catch, a new podcast from our friends at Foreign Policy, get a behind the scenes look at the state of global fishing by tracking squid from the waters off the coast of Peru, to the processing plants, all the way to restaurants and finally, your plate. Follow and listen to The Catch wherever you get your podcasts.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
- Should we worry about monkeypox? - GZERO Media ›
- The problem with China's Zero COVID strategy | GZERO World ... ›
- Podcast: Journalist Barkha Dutt on India's COVID calamity - GZERO ... ›
- Podcast: The Race to Vaccinate: Dr. Atul Gawande Provides ... ›
- After COVID vaccines, time to use mRNA tech against other ... ›
Ian Bremmer: Zero COVID no longer works, and China will pay a price
For Ian Bremmer, China has the strongest political governance of any major economy today. Sometime that's good, and has allowed China to become the world's second largest economy.
But there's also a downside we're going to see this year, Bremmer said during a livestream conversation to launch Eurasia Group's annual Top Risks report. China's zero-COVID policy, which worked incredibly well in 2020 to respond to the pandemic, no longer works because the virus has changed.
However, Xi Jinping is so invested in his strategy that he'll likely double down on it in 2022 — at the expense of more shutdowns and closures in global supply chains. Xi himself has not left the country since January 2020 — hampering China's own diplomatic ability.
"China cannot move towards living with the virus" until it has its own mRNA vaccines — and that means it'll be a very tough year for the country, and its leader.
Watch the full discussion on Top Risks 2022.
- China’s pandemic playbook will fail with Omicron: Laura Yasaitis - GZERO Media ›
- What is China's zero COVID policy? - GZERO Media ›
- How China decides to handle omicron will have global implications – Yanzhong Huang - GZERO Media ›
- Eastern European leaders visit Kyiv in unprecedented show of support - GZERO Media ›
- Ian Bremmer: power of the "Goldilocks crisis" - GZERO Media ›
- COVID protests spread in China - GZERO Media ›
- Ian Bremmer: A political power vacuum is bad news for the world - GZERO Media ›
- Xi Jinping's zero-COVID reversal | - GZERO Media ›
- The problem with China’s Zero COVID strategy | GZERO World Podcast - GZERO Media ›
A cow, a prostitute, a nose ring: The best vax incentives of 2021
If you were a little hesitant about getting the COVID vaccine, what would it take to change your mind? Cash? Free beer? Tickets to the big game? Doughnuts? A car? A lifetime fishing license? Or is all of that too tame to get you to roll up your sleeve?
Throughout 2021, governments and companies around the world tried all kinds of crazy incentives to get people jabbed. Here are five that we loved — one of which is made up. Can you spot the fake?
Bakas for Vaccines. In the Philippine town of San Luis, the vaccinated are entered in a monthly raffle to win a cow (a “Baka” in Tagalog), delivered to the winner’s door by the mayor himself. Each jab counts as an entry, so the double-vaxxed have twice as big a shot at winning. Still, despite this bovine bonus, the Philippines has one of the lowest vaccination rates in Southeast Asia, at just 44 percent.
Nose ring and a hand-blender anyone? Goldsmiths in the Indian city of Rajkot, in the state of Gujarat, banded together to open a vaccination site that offered free gold nose pins for women who get the jab. The prize for men was a free hand blender! Among the most populous Indian states, Gujarat has the second highest rate of full vaccination, at 86 percent.
Joints for jabs. Back in June, the US state of Washington offered free, pre-rolled marijuana joints to anyone 21 and older who could prove they’d received at least one jab. Washington was the first US state to legalize cannabis, back in 2012, and it ranks an impressive tenth overall in vaccination rates in the US, with 68 percent. But they could surely roll up some more spliffs to get that number even higher.
Rum punches COVID in the face. The Galleon rum distillery in Curaçao is giving out free shots of their stuff to anyone who gets the jab — but that’s just an aperitif. Everyone also enters a raffle where the grand prize is to snorkel for 15 minutes through a gigantic vat that’s filled with Galleon rum and outfitted with an LED-lit “shipwreck” — a replica of one of the famous, treasure-laden galleons that sunk off the nearby Venezuelan coast in the 17th century, giving the distillery its name. If you can survive that, then COVID doesn’t stand a chance — vaxxed or not.
Coitus against COVID. A Viennese brothel is using the world’s oldest profession to encourage uptake of the world’s newest vaccine. The women of Fun Palast (Fun Palace) offer a free 30-minute fling to anyone who gets vaccinated on site. Carnal encouragements notwithstanding, Austria still has one of Western Europe’s lowest vaccination rates.
Subscribers to our daily newsletter,Signal,learnedthe bogus one, as did our Instagram followers. Swipe through here to see if you correctly identified the fake!
Podcast: COVID Vaccine in Record Time - What Now? Moderna Co-Founder Noubar Afeyan
Listen: The pandemic's US death toll shows no signs of abating and the holiday season's spike will likely dwarf any surge that came before it. But in the midst of this dark winter there are glimmers of hope, as the first of the COVID-19 vaccines have nearly arrived (or, depending on when you read this, already have). On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer interviews Noubar Afeyan, the co-founder of a leading vaccine developer Moderna. They'll discuss distribution plans, the revolutionary science behind Moderna's vaccine, and how a company younger than Twitter became a frontrunner in the race to end the pandemic.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.