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Africa’s vaccine cloning gamble
Less than a year after the world started putting COVID vaccines into people's arms, most regions have immunized at least half their populations, but Africa still lags behind. With industrialized nations hoarding jabs and the COVAX facility faltering, barely five percent of the African population is fully vaccinated.
Some enterprising South African scientists are now making a bold bid to change that, with an experiment that could benefit not only Africa's 54 nations and billion people, but the entire world: Afrigen Biologics and Vaccines, a Cape Town-based startup, has developed a plan to reverse-engineer Moderna's mRNA shot and manufacture it for priority distribution on the continent.
How are they going to do it? The ingredients in Moderna's vaccine "recipe" are mostly publicly available — the trick is to figure out what to do with them. It's like having all the ingredients and measurements to bake a cake, but only vague instructions for each step.
Given that the Moderna vaccine was developed with US taxpayer money, lawyers are still figuring out which aspects of the process belong solely to the company. But that may be moot for now: the company says it won't sue, leaving Afrigen apparently in the clear to go ahead.
Cloning an mRNA vaccine would be a huge win for South Africa. It would be the equivalent of the moon landing in terms of accomplishment and prestige for a nation that too often grabs headlines for all the wrong reasons. Moreover, the project is backed and funded by the World Health Organization, so if the code is cracked, the formula would be made available to all as a public good across the whole continent and the wider developing world.
A highly effective yet affordable jab that can be manufactured anywhere could be a game-changer to stop more contagious COVID variants from emerging where the population is still unvaccinated. What's more, the sky's the limit when it comes to mRNA's potential to create vaccines against other diseases endemic to Africa such as Ebola, less infectious but way deadlier than COVID.
But don't get too excited just yet. The startup says it'll take up to a year to reverse-engineer Moderna's jab. Also, getting the formula right is only one piece of the puzzle. Afrigen would then need to figure out how to mass-produce, store, and deliver the vaccine around a continent with often poor infrastructure, not to mention getting raw materials at a moment when global supply chains are already stretched thin.
There's a political angle too. In the US, the Biden administration wants Moderna to sell more vaccines to COVAX at cost, and is facing growing criticism for treating the company with kid gloves after ignoring Biden's call to boost production for low-income countries despite Uncle Sam being Moderna's research sugar daddy.
Meanwhile, public health advocates are urging the National Institutes of Health to force Moderna to give up its secret sauce, and calling out the US government for paying lip service to waiving patents and global vaccine equity while not pushing the drugmakers harder to share their tech or prioritize supply for countries with low vaccination rates.
Technically, the Biden administration has some leverage because the White House bankrolled Moderna's vaccine research through the NIH and Operation Warp Speed. But twisting Moderna's arm would be a hard sell for the US government, traditionally reticent to meddle with Big Pharma and with little to gain (politically at home) from vaccinating other countries.
Moderna, for its part, says that right now it's better for the company to expand production itself than to share its tech because scaling up production in Africa will take too long. More broadly, it's also playing a longer game of aiming to dominate the post-COVID mRNA manufacturing landscape along with Pfizer.
No one knows if reverse-engineering mRNA COVID vaccines will work, but then again no one's tried before. Still, the upshot is that there's a huge opportunity despite uncertainty about the science, the business of producing the jab, and the politics behind it all.
NBA player sparks backlash from China; Bolsonaro's COVID negligence
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at the NBA's latest rift with China, Brazil's Senate investigation, and COVID booster shots.
China wipes Boston Celtics from NBA broadcast after the "Free Tibet" speech from Enes Kanter. Is NBA boxing itself into a corner?
Nice mixed sports metaphor there. NBA has some challenges because they are of course the most progressive on political and social issues in the United States among sports leagues, but not when it comes to China, their most important international market. And you've seen that with LeBron James telling everyone about we need to learn better from the Communist Party on issues like Hong Kong and how Daryl Morey got hammered for taking his stance in favor of Hong Kong democracy. Well, Enes Kanter's doing the same thing and he's a second-string center. Didn't even play yesterday and still the Chinese said that they were not going to air any Boston Celtics games. Why? Because he criticized the Chinese government and had some "Free Tibet" sneakers. This is a real problem for a lot of corporations out there, but particularly publicly, the NBA. Watch for a bunch of American politicians to make it harder for the NBA going forward, saying how dare you kowtow to the Chinese when you're all about "Black Lives Matter" inside the United States. No fun.
Brazil's Senate committee accused President Bolsonaro of crimes against humanity for COVID-19 negligence. What's happening there?
Well, they did actually consider accusing him of genocide. They chose not to do that, probably because someone looked into the definition of genocide and realized that that was really stupid. Certainly this is going to make a lot of headlines in Brazil. It's embarrassing for Bolsonaro. None of it's going to pass into law. None of it's going to lead to him being incarcerated or sent to The Hague, but it is one more thing, along with energy price spikes because of drought and their reliance on hydro, because of the economy not doing very well. His popularity right now is in the toilet. It's around 30% and they've got elections next year. Very unlikely that Bolsonaro is able to win. That's the real importance here, is his days are numbered.
FDA is set to approve the "mix and match" approach for COVID booster shots in the US. Will this deepen global vaccine inequality?
I don't know if it would deepen it, but it's going to extend it in the sense that we in the United States have been saying publicly that the vaccine..., this pandemic is not over anywhere until it's over everywhere, which is a great thing to say. But of course it's not in any way true in terms of the way we act. The way we act is as long as we've got our Moderna, we've got our Pfizer and we've got our boosters, we get to live like normal again. While around the world, most of the lower-developed countries haven't even gotten their first shot yet. That's the reality around the world. And that's driving much greater mistrust between wealthy countries and poor countries. At the same time, we have our own political differences that are growing inside the United States.
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A person holds a placard as supporters of the Economic Freedom Fighters march to demand a rollout of COVID vaccines, in Pretoria, South Africa.
What We’re Watching: African vaccine hub, Russia woos Taliban
Moderna plans African vaccine hub: Vaccine maker Moderna will spend $500 million to build a new facility in Africa that can produce 500 million annual doses of the company's COVID jab, which along with Pfizer, uses complex mRNA technology that can't be easily transferred. (Pfizer is already constructing a similar vaccine hub for local production in South Africa). Indeed, this is great news for the continent, where barely 4 percent of the population has been fully vaccinated, due to lack of supplies coming in from wealthy donor countries and the COVAX facility. What's more, Moderna plans to use its hub to develop other vaccines against other infectious diseases rife across Africa like Zika or regular influenza. Still, the facility won't be ready for at least two more years, so in the near term African countries will continue relying on foreign suppliers to inoculate their populations against COVID, prolonging the pandemic.
GZERO event highlights: IMF chief, G7 vaccine pledges, global health security
For IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva (above), a two-track pandemic means a two-track recovery that'll hurt the entire world in the long run. That's why she anticipates G7 leaders meeting this week will commit to sending about one billion doses of COVID vaccines to the developing world by the end of the year in new financing and shots unused by wealthy nations. Georgieva hopes it'll be a summit that gives all countries "a fair short in the arm, a fair shot at the future."
Georgieva was one of many experts who joined this week's two-part livestream discussion about post-pandemic health security hosted by GZERO Media in partnership with Flagship Pioneering, Beyond the Pandemic: A Radical New Approach to Health Security, presented in partnership with Flagship Pioneering.
This year's G7 meeting comes at the right time for its members to start thinking together about how to prevent the next pandemic, says UK Secretary of State for Health and Social Care Matt Hancock. Part of that conversation, in his view, should focus on how to reform the World Health Organization so it can quickly — and independently — act when the next new pathogen emerges.
G7 Comes at Right Time To Start Talking WHO Reform | UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock | GZERO Mediayoutu.be
Why has the much-touted COVAX global facility failed to deliver on its promise of equitable distribution of COVID vaccines despite big pledges from rich nations and multilateral organizations like the IMF? "Don't commit to what you cannot achieve," says Agnes Binagwaho, Vice Chancellor at the University of Global Health Equity, who calls out top Western donors for often not walking the talk on commitments — unlike China and India.
“Don't Commit to What You Cannot Achieve" — How the West Hurts COVAX | Agnes Binagwaho | GZERO Mediayoutu.be
When will we need COVID vaccine boosters against new variants? Probably before the fall, according to Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel. And what about IP waivers? He says they are not the solution, and could have negative unintended consequences like stifling future investment in innovative technologies that allowed vaccines to be developed in record time.
Moderna CEO on Vaccine Boosters Timeline, IP Waivers | Stephane Bancel | GZERO Mediayoutu.be
Why is the US not investing huge amounts in health security for Americans and the rest of the world? For Ian Bremmer, the government sees value in spending big on national security or tech to counter China, but less so in bolstering our defenses against public health threats. If this continues, he warns, America will be as ill-prepared for the next pandemic as it was for COVID.
Why Doesn't the US Invest More in Health Security? | Ian Bremmer | GZERO Mediayoutu.be
Watch key moments from the first part of this series on June 8, "Beyond the Pandemic: A Radical New Approach to Health Security,"
This live event series is produced by GZERO Media in partnership with Flagship Pioneering. We thank our event partners, Partnership for a Healthier America and Medtronic.
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How will we deal with the next pandemic?
While most of the world is still grappling with COVID, some countries — mostly wealthy ones with early access to vaccines — are thinking about preparing for the next pandemic. This sentiment ties into a wider debate about health security that was missing when the virus hit us all early last year.
Indeed, we should aspire to ensure the health security of our population instead of waiting for it to get sick, Flagship Pioneering CEO Noubar Afeyan said on June 9, during a live discussion,Stronger Partnerships for a Healthier World: Mutually Assured Protection— the second in GZERO Media's two-part discussion, Beyond the Pandemic: A Radical New Approach to Health Security, presented in partnership with Flagship Pioneering.
That'll only be possible with a level of global cooperation that remains absent even during the current pandemic, noted Eurasia Group and GZERO Media President Ian Bremmer. Right now, we seem to have learned nothing from COVID, he explained, citing the example of the US, which is more interested in investing on the tech that's on your smartphone to compete with China than in a system to help keep Americans safe from the next virus.
Also, it's too early to really talk about a global recovery when COVID is still ravaging so many parts of the world. For IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva, "a two-track pandemic means a two-track recovery" which will hold the entire planet back for years. She called for all countries to focus on vaccines as the cornerstone of their economic policies, and for rich nations to realize that helping poor ones recover is in their economic interest.
UK Health Minister Matt Hancock said that this week's G7 meeting comes at the perfect time for the world's wealthiest democracies, alongside a few like-minded friends, to make strong commitments on procuring vaccines for low-income nations and donating those they don't need right now. That's fine, but "don't commit to what you cannot achieve," remarked Agnes Binagwaho, Vice Chancellor at the University of Global Health Equity, who called out rich countries and multilateral organizations like the IMF for often not walking the talk on their pledges to the developing world.
Meanwhile, Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel underscored that his goal is to end the pandemic in 2022, not later, and the best hope for that to happen is for governments to help vaccine makers get hold of scarce raw materials instead of demanding patent waivers. It was capital markets and not governments, he added, that Moderna got the money from to conduct the research into mRNA technology to develop COVID jabs in record time.
Other key moments of the program:
- US Navy Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.) on the importance of using military forces to deploy soft power, for instance on vaccine distribution logistics.
- President of Global Policy & Advocacy at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Gargee Ghosh on how even enemy governments can collaborate on health, like the US and the Soviet Union did on a smallpox vaccine at the height of the Cold War.
- Geoff Martha, chairman and CEO of Medtronic, on whether or not we should nationalize certain parts of global supply chains to better deal with the next public health crisis.
- Procter & Gamble President of Global Home Care Sundar Raman on how experience in corporate partnerships applies to health security.
- Junaid Bajwa, chief medical scientist at Microsoft, on the looming shortage of doctors and other medical professionals that'll severely impact our capacity to respond to a public health crisis like a pandemic 10 years from now.
- Nestlé Health Service CEO Greg Behar on why we need a three-pronged — regulatory, government, and tech — proactive approach on health security partnerships.
- Amitabh Chandra, Director of Health Policy Research at the Harvard Kennedy School, on imagining a "parallel universe" in which Pfizer and Moderna had started developing COVID vaccines when the pandemic started, and why vaccine patent waivers are a "death sentence."
The first day of the series on June 8, Beyond the Pandemic: A Radical New Approach to Health Security, discussed what we could learn from COVID to prevent the next pandemic.
Learning from COVID to Prevent the Next Pandemic | GZERO Media Liveyoutu.be
This 2-day event was produced by GZERO Media in partnership with Flagship Pioneering. We thank our event partners, Partnership for a Healthier America and Medtronic.
Let's learn from COVID to prevent the next pandemic
Days before G7 leaders meet in the UK to talk about how to "build back better" after the pandemic, experts are warning them that they should not lose sight of the opportunity to learn from the experience of COVID to be more prepared when the next public crisis hits. Below are a few insights from a livestream discussion between political leaders, policy makers, health experts and scientists, entitled Beyond the Pandemic: A Radical New Approach to Health Security, hosted by GZERO Media in partnership with Flagship Pioneering.
It's time to not just move on, but rather think carefully about pre-empting future pandemics by bolstering health security, said Noubar Afeyan, co-founder of Modern and CEO of the Flagship Pioneering venture capital firm. That would be the best way, he explained, to do justice to the global calls for "never again." For Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, the window of opportunity to rally the global cooperation that was virtually absent during the worst of the pandemic is closing fast.
Science journalist Laurie Garrett blasted global leadership, especially in countries like Brazil and India, for making the pandemic worse with their politicized responses, and for underplaying the importance of preventive public health. Many governments, she pointed out, obliterated their own public health capacity by putting politics first, for instance in the US by demonizing experts such as Dr. Anthony Fauci and weaponizing the probe into the origins of COVID to blame China.
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis offered the lessons Greece has learned from dealing with a massive public health crisis barely after recovering from an economic depression. Mitsotakis also came out in support of the EU's decision to procure vaccines as a bloc over "solidarity," and anticipated that very soon people who still don't want to get vaccinated will realize their lives will become much easier when they agree to get the jab.
For his part, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla defended his company's opposition to waiving vaccine patents because the doses are for all — rich or poor, east or west — and that the only reason they can't produce more is because not enough raw materials are now available. Pfizer, he added, is looking into expanding mRNA technology to develop better flu vaccines, those that can boost the immune system to fight non-communicable diseases like cancer, and illnesses that stem from genetic mutations.
Other key moments of the program:
- Former US Homeland Security chief Jeh Johnson on a possible COVID commission in the US Congress
- Partners in Health founder Paul Farmer on why only former colonial powers are against lifting vaccine patents,
- Dame Sally Davies, England's former chief medical officer, on why we need to think differently about pandemic data
- Partnership for a Healthier America CEO Nancy Roman on the importance of nutrition in preventing unnecessary deaths in any public health crisis
- Lord Ara Darzi (Flagship Pioneering) on why governments need to take public health threats as seriously as national security
- Lovisa Afzelius (Flagship Pioneering) on why we should care about the Global Pathogen Shield.
Watch the second part of the series, Stronger Partnerships for a Healthier World: Mutually Assured Protection, which was recorded live on Wednesday, June 9.
This live event series was produced by GZERO Media in partnership with Flagship Pioneering. We thank our event partners, Partnership for a Healthier America and Medtronic.
Watch our live event: global health beyond the pandemic
Could the biggest health crisis of our lifetimes actually lead to a healthier world? Watch the second part of our live event series about what public health will look like after the COVID-19 pandemic, presented in partnership with Flagship Pioneering, the bio-platform company that founded Moderna and dozens of other life sciences firms.
Days before world leaders G7 meeting, we will bring political leaders and policy makers together with health experts and scientists to discuss lessons learned from and the latest innovations to preempt both COVID-19 variants and future infectious disease pandemics.
Attendance is free and open to the public. Please register to attend.
The virtual event will be hosted by Noubar Afeyan, founder & CEO of Flagship Pioneering, and Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media.
Tuesday, June 8, 2021 | 11 AM - 12:30 PM ET (recording available)
- Beyond the Pandemic: A Radical New Approach to Health Security: As the world emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic, what are the lessons learned and how can we use them to not only prepare for, but also preempt the next pandemic? On day one, speakers will discuss new and powerful ways to combat the wide range of threats to our health, including preventing variants and future infectious disease pandemics, and tackling 'slow-burn' pandemics such as obesity and chronic disease. CNBC's Meg Tirrell will moderate the conversation.
Wednesday, June 9, 2021 | 11 AM - 12:30 PM ET
- Stronger Partnerships for a Healthier World: Mutually Assured Protection: On day two, we'll focus on the need for greater collaboration between governments, international institutions, and the private sector in order to get beyond sick care and create a world where we secure and protect people's health by postponing if not preventing disease, and by promoting good health and wellbeing. Bloomberg TV anchor Shery Ahn will moderate the conversation.
Speakers include:
Kyriakos Mitsotakis
Prime Minister of Greece
Kristalina Georgieva
Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
Stéphane Bancel
CEO, Moderna Therapeutics
Agnes Binagwaho
Vice Chancellor, University of Global Health Equity
Geoff Martha
Chairman & CEO, Medtronic
Nancy Roman
President and CEO, Partnership for a Healthier America
Paul Farmer
Professor, Harvard Medical School; Co-founder, Partners In Health
Gargee Ghosh
President, Global Policy & Advocacy, Gates Foundation
Amitabh Chandra
Professor, Director of Health Policy Research, Harvard Kennedy School
Sally Davies
GCB DBE, Master of Trinity College
Laurie Garrett
Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist
Jeh Johnson
Partner, Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP; former Secretary of Homeland Security (2013 - 2017)
Albert Bourla
CEO, Pfizer
Noubar Afeyan
President & Founder, Flagship Pioneering
Ian Bremmer
President & Founder, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media
Additional speakers include:
- Junaid Bajwa, Chief Medical Scientist, Microsoft
- Matt Hancock, UK Health Secretary
- James Stavridis, Admiral, USN (Ret), former Supreme Allied Commander at NATO
- Sundar Raman, President, Global Home Care and P&G Professional, Procter & Gamble
- Greg Behar, CEO, Nestle Health Sciences
This event is produced by GZERO Media in partnership with Flagship Pioneering. We thank our event partners, Partnership for a Healthier America and Medtronic.
The race to vaccinate: Dr. Atul Gawande provides perspective
Can the US vaccinate enough of its population to prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths before new and more contagious COVID-19 variants take hold? And will these vaccines even be effective against more adaptable mutations of the virus? Surgeon and public health expert Dr. Atul Gawande, most recently of the Biden/Harris COVID-19 Transition Task Force, joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to discuss the latest in the global effort to vaccinate our way out of this pandemic. He also explains why people should get the Johnson & Johnson vaccine if offered the chance, despite its lower overall efficacy rate compared to the mRNA-based vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna.