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India’s COVID calamity
India's latest COVID explosion hits home as one Delhi-based journalist speaks with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World about her own father's death from the virus. Barkha Dutt has been reporting on the pandemic in India since it began, but nothing could prepare her for the catastrophic second wave that has hit her country in the last few weeks—and that has now shattered her own family. Would her father have survived if the oxygen tank in his ambulance had been working, or if the ambulance hadn't gotten stuck in Delhi traffic? She asks similar questions of her national government. Why was it caught so unprepared by this second wave, well over a year into the pandemic? Why has India, the largest vaccine manufacturer in the world, been so slow to vaccinate its own citizens? And how much of the blame falls at the feet of Prime Minister Narendra Modi?
US donates vaccines to India; Macron v Le Pen; EU tourism
Ian Bremmer answers this week's questions on the biggest stories in global politics:
The United States says it will now donate 60 million COVID doses. Who are they going to?
Well, they're not COVID doses, because we don't want to give people coronavirus. They're vaccines. It's AstraZeneca, which we don't need in the United States. We haven't even approved yet. They are somewhat less effective than Moderna and Pfizer, but they're damned effective and you should take them, and they're going almost exclusively to India. And that is fully appropriate because India, we know about 350,000 cases a day. In reality, if you look at the positivity rates and level of disclosure, it's probably five to 10x that. This is by far the largest epicenter of the coronavirus crisis to date in the world. But they're not going to be getting these doses until probably June. And meanwhile, they're under very serious trouble right now. And there's a lot of recrimination, central government, local governments. The US has been slow. We should've made this announcement frankly a month ago, but I'm glad we're doing it.
Should Macron be concerned about the rise of the right a year out from election in France?
He should be a little concerned because his approval ratings are horrible on the back of the gilets jaunes crisis, and now you've got the coronavirus crisis and yeah, he's not doing well. But that doesn't mean that he's going to lose. He is behind in polls right now to Marine Le Pen a little bit, but in the second round, everyone that isn't pro Le Pen is against Le Pen, and he gets all of those votes and Le Pen gets the core Le Pen votes and she loses. And that is almost certainly what is going to happen. So I wouldn't be all that worried, even though the far right in France, on the back of a lot of Islamic extremism and recent attacks, a lot more than the United States, is a problem.
Is the EU ready to welcome American tourists back? What will that look like?Well, I mean, they're ready to start opening borders to American tourists. There will be vaccine passports certainly, will require that you show that you've had a vaccine, at the very least, that you have a negative test, and Americans will be able to travel to Europe. And I think that's a big deal. About 80% of the countries in the world right now the US is not recommending travel to, and the developing world, much of it around the world is going to take a lot longer to roll out effective vaccines, and never mind herd immunity, just get to the point that you don't have these massive spikes in cases, South America, South Asia, Southeast Asia, India, as I already mentioned. Europe is about two to three months behind the United States. They need the tourism, they need the money. They're going to open the borders, and Americans will be able to travel, showing that they are either immune through vaccine or have taken a negative test. And so we'll get there, and hopefully we'll get a little closer as a consequence.
When can kids get vaccinated against COVID-19?
When will it be safe for the world's children to be vaccinated against COVID-19? The World Health Organization's chief scientist, Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, says that vaccines are being tested in children down to the age of six or even lower, and promises that data on children will be shared as soon as it's available. She also notes that there are not enough studies on transmission in schools, and the WHO has advised governments to prioritize schools "over other things like shopping malls or cinema halls or pubs." Dr. Swaminathan spoke with Ian Bremmer in an interview on GZERO World, airing on US public television stations starting April 9. Check local listings.
Watch the episode: Vaccine nationalism could prolong the pandemic
Podcast: Vaccine nationalism risks prolonging pandemic, according to Chief Scientist, WHO
Listen: Soumya Swaminathan calls for a massive increase in the global vaccine supply in order to prevent the rise of more dangerous and vaccine-evading super-variants, in a wide-ranging interview with Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World podcast. Dr. Swaminathan, Chief Scientist at the World Health Organization, argues that vaccine nationalism, where countries prioritize their own citizens ahead of the rest of the world, will only prolong the pandemic because a virus does not stop at any national border. She also weighs in on a controversial new WHO report investigating the origins of COVID-19 and discusses when she thinks the world's children should get vaccinated. In addition, she suggests we may see alternative vaccine forms, like nasal sprays, sooner than we think.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.The Graphic Truth: US COVID deaths drop while jabs rise
The United States has the world's highest death toll from COVID-19, which has caused immense pain and suffering. And still, more than a year later, new more contagious variants like B.1.1.7 continue to wreak havoc in some states. But the ramping up of the national vaccine rollout in recent months has begun to smother pockets of the country with immunity, with more than 3.1 million people on average receiving the jab each day over the past week. As the speedy vaccine drive continues, the national death rate is also plummeting. While cases remain high in many places, epidemiologists now say vaccines are efficient and safe enough to make the positive trends last. Here's a look at daily COVID deaths and vaccines administered in the US over the past year.
Women in power — the World Trade Organization's Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
Starting a new job is always daunting. For Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, who just weeks ago started a new stint as director general at the World Trade Organization, the timing could not be more trying: she is taking over the world's largest global trade body amid once-in-a-generation public health and economic crises that have emboldened protectionist inclinations around the world.
Who is Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, and how has her worldview shaped her politics and policymaking?
Nigerian trailblazer. "Investing in women is smart economics, and investing in girls, catching them upstream, is even smarter economics."
As Nigeria's first female finance minister (2003-2006 and 2011-2015) under presidents Olusegun Obasanjo and Goodluck Jonathan, Okonjo-Iweala oversaw sweeping financial reforms that helped stabilize the country's volatile economy. Indeed, her leadership was crucial in ensuring $18 billion in debt forgiveness, helping Nigeria secure its first-ever sovereign debt rating. She also pioneered a program that culled "ghost workers" from the civil service's payroll, saving around 163 billion naira ($398 million) over two years.
Okonjo-Iweala also started the privatization of state sectors like power, though that process has since proven to exacerbate problems, resulting in spotty power supply and price increases for the country of 200 million people. Additionally, though Okonjo-Iweala tackled corruption by making states report their accounts, failed attempts to diversify the country's economy, a stated aim of Okonjo-Iweala and the Jonathan government, has left Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer, vulnerable to the shocks of global oil markets.
Central to her economic outlook is the belief that the political and economic fruition of Nigeria — and that of other African countries — is contingent on better integration of women into all areas of political and economic life. Though many Nigerian women have become influential entrepreneurs, she notes, lack of education opportunities for women and girls in the country's north have impeded development and growth (a crisis exacerbated by the deteriorating security situation in northern Nigeria over the past decade.)
It's worth noting that Okonjo-Iweala paid a personal price for her reforms and crackdown on corruption in the oil industry: In 2012, her 82-year old mother was kidnapped by bandits demanding the finance minister's resignation — and cash. Okonjo-Iweala refused to resign and her mother was eventually released safely (though details remain unclear).
African representation. "The low-income countries in Africa and elsewhere are some of the most rapidly growing economies in the world. These countries ought to be given more of a voice."
In Nigerian politics, as well as during her 25 years at the World Bank (she rose to managing director), and now at the WTO, Okonjo-Iweala has always emphasized that African nations, as well as other emerging markets, are some of the fastest-growing economies in the world. (Before oil prices fell sharply in 2016, Nigeria's economy was growing steadily at 6.3 percent.) Pointing to the fact that many frontier economies in Africa and Asia were the engines of the world's economic revival in the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009, Okonjo-Iweala says that African nations should be given more voice in global forums where important international decisions are made.
It's precisely this outlook that Okonjo-Iweala — who until recently was also chair of the GAVI board which aims to boost vaccine access in the developing world — plans to bring to her tenure at the WTO. In recent months, Okonjo-Iweala has lobbied against "vaccine nationalism," and she's advocated for using WTO intellectual property rules to expand vaccine development and manufacturing in developing countries. She has pointed to licensing deals like the one struck with India's Serum Institute that allows it to produce AstraZeneca's vaccine as a model — a view shared by many leaders, including South Africa's President Cyril Ramphosa who recently said that rich countries were practicing "vaccine apartheid" by blocking emerging markets from manufacturing vaccines on their home turf.
The importance of symbolism. Many media reports have focused on Okonjo-Iweala's bonafides as the first African and first woman to head the WTO after almost seven decades (the WTO emerged from the former General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade). That's a reductive way of looking at Okonjo-Iweala's accomplishments, but her appointment as WTO chief at this tumultuous moment in its history is indeed an historic breakthrough for African women, who see their own social and professional prospects boosted by her accomplishments. As one Nigerian academic recently said, "[Her] achievement is not just a day's work. It's a kind of investment that she has nurtured for a long time."
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Why Europe’s vaccine rollout has been so tortured
The EU acted swiftly, decisively, and effectively to respond to the pandemic's economic fallout. A nearly trillion dollar bailout package, agreed to late last July, has kept much of the continent afloat. But it failed on the public health response, first on testing and then rolling out vaccines. Enrico Letta, Italy's former prime minister, shares his thoughts on the reasons why in a conversation with Ian Bremmer on the latest episode of GZERO World, airing on public television stations nationwide starting this Friday, March 26. Check local listings.
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Dr. Fauci on the world's nightmare year and when the COVID-19 pandemic could end
In the fall of 2019, weeks before the COVID-19 pandemic would change the world, Ian Bremmer asked Dr. Fauci what kept him up at night and he described a "a pandemic-like respiratory infection." Fast-forward to late February 2021 and Dr. Fauci tells Ian, "I think we are living through much of that worst nightmare." Dr. Fauci returns to GZERO World to take stock of the nightmare year and to paint a picture of what the end of the pandemic could look like—and when it could finally arrive.
Catch the full episode of GZERO World, where Dr. Fauci discusses the latest in vaccine roll out, schools re-openings, and plenty more, on US public television stations nationwide, beginning Friday, February 26. Check local listings.