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An aerial view shows damaged buildings in Gaza, July 28, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Israel advances Gaza City takeover plan, US brokers Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal, Trump’s Russia deadline arrives
Netanyahu plans to conquer Gaza City
Rebuffing warnings from the country’s top military officials, Israel’s Security Cabinet early Friday approved Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan to take over Gaza City, the capital of the Gaza strip. Netanyahu has given the city’s 800,000 residents until Oct. 7 to evacuate, a deadline chosen to mark the two-year anniversary of Hamas’ attack on Israel. Netanyahu’s original plan involved occupying all of Gaza, and this remains possible unless, Israel says, Hamas returns the remaining hostages. The move has angered several Israeli allies, with Germany announcing it will halt military exports to Israel.
Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign historic peace agreement
The two South Caucasus nations will sign a US-brokered agreement at the White House today. They have been in conflict for more than 30 years, mainly over the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian separatist enclave of Azerbaijan. In 2023, Azerbaijan retook full control of it after a decisive military advance. The peace deal reportedly grants the US exclusive rights to develop a transit corridor through the energy rich region, which sits at the crossroads of Russian, Turkish, and Iranian influence. For a brief history of the conflict, see here.
Trump’s Russia deadline arrives
Trump’s deadline for Russia to strike a ceasefire deal with Ukraine, or face sanctions, is today. With the US leader set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the “coming days,” it’s unclear whether he still intends to follow through with the threat – he was evasive when asked about it yesterday, although he has already been hitting at least one of Russia’s main trade partners hard with “secondary measures.” European leaders fear that Putin’s decision to meet with Trump is just another effort to prolong the war and stave off US pressure.People followed by mourners carry the coffins of Azerbaijani brothers Huseyn and Ziyaddin Safarov, who died in Russian police custody, to a cemetery in Hacibedelli, Azerbaijan, on July 1, 2025, in this still image from video.
Hard Numbers: Russia and Azerbaijan tensions rise, Americans hit the road in record numbers, & More
2: Russia-Azerbaijan ties are fraying after the South Caucasus country said two Azeri brothers died last week after being tortured in Russian police custody. In retaliation, Azerbaijan has arrested half a dozen Russian state journalists working in the capital, Baku. The two former-Soviet countries generally get along but have had frictions over Azeri migrant labor in Russia, an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that was shot down over Russian airspace, and Moscow’s backing for Armenia in that country’s decades long conflict with Azerbaijan. The Kremlin said Azerbaijan was being “extremely emotional.”
87.1%: In the latest blow to free movement in Europe, Poland has introduced checks along its borders with Germany and Lithuania, partly a response to the surging number of people seeking first-time asylum in the country – the amount increased 87.1% from 2023 to 2024, more than any other country in Europe. The move is also a tit-for-tat measure, after Berlin introduced its own checks at the Polish-German frontier.
500: The war is going from bad to worse for Ukraine: After Russia launched over 500 drones and other missiles into its cities over the weekend, the United States halted a weapons shipment that was headed to Ukraine. The White House said it was putting its own interests first after lending military support to other countries.
14: With international demand for customer service centers soaring, is Africa ready to answer the call? Experts think so, predicting that the “Business-Process Outsourcing” industry will grow 14% annually on the continent in the coming years, nearly twice the global average. Anglophone African countries are particularly well positioned – the industry is growing nearly 20% per year in Kenya.
72.2 Million: A record 72.2 million Americans are set to travel domestically during the upcoming Fourth of July holiday weekend, according to the AAA, a nationwide motorists’ group. More than 60 million of them will be taking trips by car, driven – as it were – by the lowest summer gas prices since 2021 (and some fight delays).
Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev attend a meeting in Moscow, Russia, April 22, 2024.
Armenia and Azerbaijan move toward peace deal as Russia’s influence dwindles
Armenia and Azerbaijan, historic rivals that have fought several wars since the collapse of the Soviet Union, are finally moving toward a peace settlement.
In a significant concession to Baku, Armenia said late last week it would hand over several border villages it’s controlled since the 1990s. “This is one more positive step toward a broader peace deal likely getting signed before the end of this year,” says Tinatin Japaridze, an expert on the region at Eurasia Group.
But Yerevan also didn’t have much of a choice. Armenia lost much of its leverage last September when Azerbaijan regained full control of the long-disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region — a historically contested enclave that the two countries repeatedly fought over.
This new development is also just one piece of the puzzle and “definitely not the end of the saga,” Japaridze says, as other territorial disputes remain. Not to mention, the government in Armenia is already facing domestic pushback over this new border deal. And even if Baku signs a broader peace agreement, there’s no guarantee that it won’t take military action against Armenia in the future.
Along these lines, getting a final peace deal across the finish line and making sure it sticks will likely require the help of a third party. But in a break from the past, it seems that Russia is less likely to play this role.
Declining Russian influence For years, Armenia, a former Soviet republic, looked to Russia as a key partner. But Armenia felt abandoned by Moscow as it did little to prevent Azerbaijan from seizing Nagorno-Karabakh. Yerevan is increasingly turning to the West in this new era, as Moscow’s influence in the South Caucasus region dwindles while its attention is focused on the war in Ukraine and problems at home.
“Russia is visibly losing some of the clout that it had had after the collapse of the Soviet Union,” says Japaridze. This could provide an opportunity for the EU or Washington to swoop in and boost their influence in the region, though it’s too early to tell.
But Russia is also unlikely to stand on the sidelines if it sees Western adversaries garnering closer ties in its historic neighborhood.
“Armenia is at the top of the list in terms of Moscow maintaining its influence in the South Caucasus. And I think it's an important one for them to have to continue to stay engaged with. But, in terms of the influence, it is certainly dwindling,” says Japaridze.
Two men cast their votes in the early presidential election in the Azerbaijani capital on Wednesday.
Hard Numbers: Azerbaijan “votes” for Aliyev, UN seeks Sudan aid, Marines missing in California, Orcas swim to safety off Japan, Marianne Williamson calls it quits
94: Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev was “reelected” almost unanimously on Wednesday, garnering 94% of the vote to secure his fifth term in office, according to a state media exit poll. Aliyev likely called the snap election to leverage any good feelings he generated with his quick war last September to take control of the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh. While Azerbaijan’s elections are neither free nor fair, it’s a step up from 2013, when the country released election results before the polls opened.
4,100,000,000: Ten months of fighting between the rebel Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Army have left 8 million people in Sudan displaced and 12,000 dead, with some 18 million facing acute hunger. In response, the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, is seeking $4.1 billion in international support for victims of Sudan’s civil war.
5: A US Marine Corps helicopter carrying five troops disappeared early Wednesday, prompting search and rescue efforts. The crew was flying from Creech Air Force Base in Clark County, Nev., to Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego, Calif. The aircraft disappeared near Pine Valley, a mountainous area east of San Diego. Authorities say the helicopter has been found, but the search for the crew members continues.
12: A dozen orcas that were trapped in ice off Japan’s northern island have made it to safety. Fishermen spotted the pod earlier this week, prompting public concern for their welfare. A group of environmentalists even asked Japan’s government to send an ice breaker to free the killer whales, but they seem to have managed an escape on their own. Fun fact: “Killer whale” is a misnomer. Orcas are in the dolphin family, and fishermen originally referred to them as “whale killers” due to their hunting of large marine animals.
2: And then there were two... Marianne Williamson on Wednesday dropped out of the race for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination. This means Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota is President Joe Biden's only remaining challenger, although he has little to no chance of success.
Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev speaks during a military parade of his armed forces in Nagorno-Karabakh region's capital city on November 8, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Azerbaijan targets journalists, Brazil feels the heat, deadly stampede hits the Republic of Congo, flooding kills in Somalia
112.6: It’s dangerously hot in Brazil. The country just recorded its highest temperature ever on Sunday in the southeastern town of Araçuaí: 112.6 degrees Fahrenheit (44.8 degrees Celsius). The heatwave, which has been linked to El Niño, has seemingly contributed to mass faintings at Taylor Swift concerts in the South American country in recent days. One fan at the pop star’s Friday show in Rio de Janeiro on Friday died amid the unbearable temperatures. Meanwhile, scientists continue to ring alarm bells about climate change as average global temperatures enter threatening territory.
37: At least 37 people were killed on Monday in a stampede at a military recruitment event in Brazzaville, the capital of the Republic of Congo. This came after the army announced it was recruiting 1,500 people between 18 to 25, leading droves of young people to flock to recruitment centers in the central African country — where there are few economic opportunities. Youth unemployment in the Republic of Congo stands at roughly 42%, according to the World Bank. After the deadly stampede, which occurred at a stadium, the Congolese Armed Forces Command announced it was suspending recruitment in the nation’s capital.
700,000: Flash flooding in Somalia caused by heavy rains has killed at least 50 people and displaced nearly 700,000, according to comments on Monday from Mohamud Moalim Abdullahi, director of the Somali Disaster Management Agency. The recent torrential rainfall in Somalia has been tied to El Niño, much like the extreme heat in Brazil, and more downpours are expected before the end of the month.
What’s Nakhchivan, and could it spark yet another war in Europe?
OK, you may only recently have learned what “Nagorno-Karabakh” is (and if you didn’t, you can go here.) But when it rains it pours, especially in the Caucasus. So now it’s time to learn about a small exclave that could trigger the region’s next big conflict. Today, we are meeting “Nakhchivan.”
What’s Nakhchivan? Home to about half a million Azerbaijanis, Nakhchivan (pronounced NOCK-chee-vonn) is a part of Azerbaijan that is separated from the rest of the country by a thin sliver of Southern Armenia (see map above). Until 1991, those borders didn’t mean much, as both Armenia and Azerbaijan were glommed together as part of the larger Soviet Union.
But when the USSR collapsed and Armenia and Azerbaijan went to war over Nagorno-Karabakh in the early 1990s, Armenia cut Azerbaijan’s overland ties to Nakhchivan. That forced Azerbaijan to create new routes through neighboring Iran, and to rely more on Turkey, which has a small border with Nakhchivan as well.
Now, Azerbaijan has Nakhchivan in its sights again, perhaps literally. The reconquest of Nagorno-Karabakh means Azeri forces now control all of Azerbaijan’s territory again, right up to the Armenian border region of Syunik, which is all that separates Azerbaijan from the Nakhchivan exclave. It is a distance of barely 20 miles as the Azeri “qarğa” flies.
An emboldened Azerbaijan is now renewing longstanding calls to create an Azeri-controlled “corridor” that would slash across southern Armenia. Turkey — which has always strongly supported its ethnolinguistic cousins, the Azeris — also likes the idea. After all, linking Azerbaijan, Nakhchivan, and Turkey would create a pan-Turkic entity spanning from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean. Just days after retaking Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev met his Turkish counterpart Recep Erdogan in Nakhchivan to push for a new corridor.
The Armenians, not surprisingly, don’t like this at all. But if Azerbaijan moved to create facts on the ground, would anyone come to Armenia’s defense? The outcome of the Nagorno-Karabakh war leaves little reason to think so. Azerbaijan, with Turkish help, is now in a commanding position to dictate what the map of the South Caucasus looks like.
Now that you know what Nakhchivan is … keep an ear out for more news on it in the coming weeks.
Kosovo-Serbia tensions worsen, hurting EU membership hopes
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics - this week from Stockholm.
Are Serbia and Kosovo heading towards a confrontation?
It looks very bad. What happened in northern Kosovo the other day was distinctly bad. A collection of fairly well-armed and well-organized Serb thugs did an operation that was eventually beaten back by Kosovo police. It follows a cycle of escalation that was initiated on the Kosovo side, has to be said, last year, and has not been brought under control by rather intense diplomacy, both by the Europeans and by the Americans. At the moment, things look very bleak. This, of course, is damaging the EU integration prospects for both Serbia and Kosovo. Let's see what happens.
How can the EU react to what's happening in Nagorno-Karabakh?
Well, it was a very blatant military operation by the Azeris that sort of captured, de facto destroyed the autonomous functions of Nagorno-Karabakh. And it has encouraged, or forced, however you want to phrase it, practically all of the Armenians to evacuate in the direction of Armenia. It’s a huge political and humanitarian tragedy. How we can respond remains to be seen at the moment. It's very much a question of trying to alleviate the horrible humanitarian consequences.
Refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh region ride in a truck upon their arrival at the border village of Kornidzor, Armenia, September 27, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Armenians flee Nagorno-Karabakh, GOP debate falls flat, Evergrande stock drops, tragedy strikes Iraqi wedding, Commander strikes again
50,000: A torrent of at least 50,000 ethnic Armenians have fled Nagorno-Karabakh after Azerbaijani forces occupied the hotly contested enclave last week. The refugees constitute approximately one-third of the pre-war Armenian population. Among those fleeing was Russian-Armenian billionaire Ruben Vardanyan, who Azerbaijan’s border guard service said Wednesday it had arrested.
200,000: A 30-second spot at last night’s Republican debate ran advertisers around $200,000 – not cheap, but less than half the $495,000 the same time slot cost during the first debate. The network clearly expected fewer viewers to tune in for the second round, probably because polls show the lion’s share of GOP voters know they will back Donald Trump.
19: Massive Chinese property developer Evergrande saw its stock price fall 19% on reports that its chairman has been placed under police surveillance. The company has lost an astonishing 99.9% of its value since a 2017 peak and is in the midst of a government-supervised restructuring, fueling fears of liquidation.
100: Over 100 people died and scores more were injured late Tuesday when a fire swept through a wedding party in Qaraqosh, a small town in Iraq's Nineveh region. It is just the latest tragedy to strike the tight-knit community of Assyrian Christians — one of the most ancient ethnic groups in Iraq — which was forced to flee between 2014 and 2017 by the Islamic State.
11: President Joe Biden’s dog Commander has bitten yet another Secret Service agent in the 11th known incident in which the canine has harmed people at the White House. Biden’s other dog, Major, was sent to live with friends in Delaware after displaying similar aggression, but he's not the only president to have had a misbehaving pet: America’s most animal-crazy president, Teddy Roosevelt, notoriously had a badger named Josiah who bit legs constantly – “but never faces,” according to the president’s son Archie.