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National flags of BRICS countries.
The BRICS remain a bad bet
Advocates of the BRICS have made this case before – and the return of Donald Trump as US president with the rollout of his trade war on US friends and foes alike has given them new momentum.
But, given their sharply differing political systems and economic models, the BRICS group will never share common views on democracy, free trade, and rule of law as the G7 Group of industrialized countries – the US, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Canada – has done. Nor are their interests aligned. China and India, for example, are more rivals than allies.
This reality will continue to limit the BRICS’ ability and willingness to take on the costs and risks that come with bolstering the international system of security and investment.
In short, Trump’s “America First” foreign and trade policies have created a vacuum in global leadership, but the BRICS remain too internally divided over basic questions to fill it.
Rescue teams work amid rubble in the aftermath of an earthquake in a location given as Shigatse City, Tibet Autonomous Region, China, January 7, 2025, in this screengrab obtained from a handout video.
Hard Numbers: Deadly Tibet earthquake, Laken Riley bill passed, Another BRICS in the wall, Remembering Charlie Hebdo massacre
126: At least 126 people have died following a major 7.1-magnitude earthquake that struck Tibet and parts of Nepal on Tuesday. The exact death toll is still unknown as the rough terrain in the world’s highest mountains makes it difficult to access affected communities. Dozens more people are believed to be trapped in rubble, and China’s government has deployed over 3,000 rescue workers to save as many as possible.
264-159: The US House of Representatives on Tuesday passed the so-called Laken Riley Act mandating the detention of undocumented immigrants accused of certain minor crimes by a margin of 264-159. It had bipartisan support, with 48 Democrats voting for the bill, as the party faces pressure to toughen up on immigration.
10: Indonesia became the 10th member of the BRICS multilateral organization on Tuesday, as new President Prabowo Subianto attempts to position his country as one of the leading emerging economies. He’ll need to watch his step, however, as incoming US President Donald Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on countries that attempt to displace the US dollar, which BRICS has long set as one of its aims.
10: France marked the 10-year anniversary of the brutal terrorist massacre of the staff of Charlie Hebdo magazine by two al-Qaida-linked gunmen on Tuesday. The terrorists killed 12 people in retaliation for the magazine publishing cartoons depicting the Islamic prophet Mohammed, prompting a massive outpouring of support for the slain staff, whom many French and European voters see as having died in the name of freedom of speech and thought.Participants make their way past the Notre-Dame Cathedral as they attend the 13th edition of the stand up Nautic Paddle race on the river Seine in Paris, France, December 1, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Notre Dame’s stones gleam after cleaning, Trump threatens yuge tariffs, Iceland gets new gov, Vaccine promises AIDS end
42,000: Workers restoring Paris’ Notre Dame Cathedral after the fire that ravaged it five years ago had to clean 42,000 square meters of stone. They used special techniques to minimize damage to the original masonry in the process and the results are stunning: See it for yourself: The medieval cathedral reopens to the public on Dec. 8.
100: President-elect Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to impose 100% tariffs on goods imported from BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, as well Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE), should the organization try to issue its own currency or displace the dollar’s place in world trade. It’s an odd threat, as some members – namely Russia and Iran – are already so heavily sanctioned that trade with the US is non-existent, while others – Brazil, Egypt, and the UAE – are major US allies.
15: Iceland’s Social Democrats gained 15 seats in the Althing – one of the world’s oldest parliaments – and will unseat the ruling conservatives after seven years of power following Saturday’s snap election. It’s yet another example of the anti-establishment trend few democracies seem able to escape in this election-studded year.
2: A twice-yearly vaccine against HIV/AIDS has proven 100% effective against contracting the virus, which a UN report for World AIDS Day on Sunday called a “historic crossroads” in the fight to end the epidemic. Generic versions of the drug will be available in 120 low-income countries, mostly in Africa and Asia, but the manufacturer has not approved generic patents for Latin America, which may represent a crucial weak spot in distribution.Graphic Truth: BRICS economies eclipse the G7
In 2001, a Goldman Sachs economist coined an acronym for the four largest and most promising “emerging market” economies: Brazil, Russia, India, and China became known as the “BRIC” countries.
Five years later, reality imitated art when the countries decided to begin meeting regularly at “BRIC summits,” with the latest occurring in Kazan, Russia, this week. The subsequent inclusion of South Africa upgraded the “s” to a capital letter: the BRICS.
The group, which lacks formal treaties or binding obligations, has always been united more by what it opposes — US dominance of global financial systems — than by what it supports.
After all, it’s a hodgepodge: energy exporters (Brazil and Russia) and importers (China and India), democracies (India and Brazil) and non-democracies (China and Russia), allies (Russia ❤️China) and adversaries (India x China).
But the economic clout of the group is, on paper, formidable. With the addition of Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates this year, the BRICS+ economies account for 36% of global GDP – while the G7 group of wealthy democracies amount to just 29%. But, of course, there’s a catch: China and the US each contribute more than half of their respective group’s GDP.
Here’s a look at the economic size, and breakdown, of the BRICS+ and the G7 group it hopes one day to eclipse — not only economically but also geopolitically.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a welcoming ceremony for participants of the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia October 22, 2024.
Another BRIC in Vladimir Putin’s wall
For an “isolated” world leader with a global arrest warrant to his name, Vladimir Putin is throwing a pretty decent party this week. Russia is hosting a summit of the BRICS+, a loose grouping of Global “South” countries led by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
Dozens of nations are set to attend, and Putin will even receive a personal visit from UN chief António Guterres.
The BRICS backstory: It began life in the 2000s as a Wall Street acronym for the four largest emerging market economies. Reality imitated research in 2006 when their governments actually formed the grouping as a basis for alternatives to Euro-Atlantic geopolitical clout.
South Africa joined in 2009. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, and the UAE came along this year. Together, the BRICS account for about 30% of global GDP, slightly more than the G7.
What does it do? It’s a forum to loosely coordinate agendas among members. It has a small multilateral development bank but no binding treaties or security arrangements.
On the agenda this week: Members will sketch out alternatives to the overwhelmingly dollar-dominated global financial systems that give the US outsized power to shape, and sanction, other countries’ economies. Knocking the greenback off its perch as the most-trusted global currency is no easy task.
But the symbolism matters: Putin is showing the world that two years after invading Ukraine, he’s not all that “isolated” after all, and that there is a large – and growing – group of countries seeking alternatives to US and European power.
What Sinwar's death means for the war in Gaza
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
BRICS Summit: A "new world order" or already a relic of the past?
Neither. It's in Kazan in Russia. So, I mean, the big issue is that the fact that Putin is hosting it hasn't stopped people from showing up, and that says a lot about the state of the non-West. If you're not in the G7, you're still finding ways to work with the Russians, and that's not going to change anytime soon. But it is not an alternative to the G7. It's a large grouping, and they have different political, different economic systems. They want to work with everybody. So we're not heading towards a new Cold War, at least not in terms of the big global architecture.
Is Sinwar's death the beginning of the end of the war in Gaza?
I think it is in terms of Israel's military fighting, because they've killed the leadership, they've blown up the tunnels, they've found the arms caches. I mean, there's not much else for them to do. But I mean, the war from the Palestinian perspective is just beginning. They are utterly devastated. They have no ability to have a future for themselves or their kids, and they are going to be fighting for generations. So right now, it doesn't matter much to Israel because they're massively asymmetrically powerful from a military perspective, but long-term this is not something that we're going to be able to forget about.
Yankees versus Shohei Ohtani, I mean Dodgers. Who's winning?
Well, I mean, that is funny of course, because here in Japan everyone has Ohtani fever. You cannot avoid it everywhere you walk. It is pretty exciting. They are the two teams that I wanted to see in the World Series, and I think it's going to be a fascinating week and a half or whatever it is. And I wish... I mean, I tend to root for the Red Sox, which means not rooting for the Yankees. That means I kind of want the Dodgers to win. But at the end of the day, I love sports because a minute after the game is over, I am no longer super excited. And I wish that could be the way that politics work.
Anyway, be good and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Andrei Belousov, Russia's Defence Minister, attends a meeting with Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of China's Central Military Commission, in Beijing, China, in this still image taken from video released on October 15, 2024.
Russia and China put on a brave face in defense meeting
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousovmet with China’s top civilian defense official Zhang Youxia on Tuesday in Beijing, where both sides pledged to “continue working closely” to deepen military relations. However, the “no limits” partnership Beijing and Moscow committed to two years ago is proving unworthy of the moniker.
For one, China has proven reluctant to provide Russia with the weapons and shells it wants to wage war in Ukraine. Even Beijing’s more restrained shipments of “dual use” goods — civilian items with military applications like computer chips, machine components, and navigation equipment — has attracted opprobrium from the US and Europe.
But China isn’t just losing leverage with Russia and the US: North Korea has been happy to step in and send Russia approximately half the shells it uses in Ukraine, and even reportedly deploy troops to the battlefield. Beijing isn’t willing to match Pyongyang — or, evidently, rein them in.
All eyes are now on next week’s BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, where Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin will meet. China would like to show a united front at the big international conference, but the expansion of the group’s membership to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (and also kinda sorta Saudi Arabia) makes it hard to get on the same page about any given geopolitical issue. We’re watching how they talk about Ukraine next week.
Thailand's newly appointed Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa reacts during a family photo session with new cabinet ministers at the Government House in Bangkok, Thailand, May 7, 2024.
US ally Thailand moves forward with BRICS membership
On Sunday, Thailand said Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa had delivered an official letter to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, outlining Bangkok’s intention to join the BRICS alliance, which has gained a reputation as an anti-Western forum in recent years. Thailand holds non-NATO major ally status with the United States, but Maris said it hopes joining the Chinese- and Russian-led group will help it “play a more active role in South-South cooperation.” Things may not come together by the next BRICS summit in October, but Bangkok’s bid is likely to work out.
Is Washington worried? Hardly. For all its ambitions of pushing the dollar out of its dominant trade position and aligning the Global South to mutual political goals, BRICS can’t match actions to rhetoric. The organization doesn’t even have a permanent secretariat to coordinate its activities, and its members often don’t see eye to eye.
Thailand isn’t the first US ally to join (Brazil was), and in January, BRICS expanded to include another major non-NATO ally, Egypt, as well as close US partners Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
So what’s the point? The impotence of BRICS makes joining a low-stakes gambit with some potential upside. It might help Thailand curry favor with China, its largest trade partner and most worrying military threat. But, if not, what has Bangkok really lost?