Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Anderson Clayton, chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party speaks after Democrat Josh Stein won the North Carolina governor's race, in Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S., November 5, 2024.
Young Democrats look to bulldoze the old guard ahead of the midterms
As the Democrats start plotting their fight back into power in the 2026 midterms, Anderson Clayton has a suggestion about who should lead that fight.
“Young people have the energy and the mobility to reshape the party in ways which older generations, quite frankly, are not interested in.”
Clayton speaks with authority on this matter. At 27 years old, the North Carolina native is the country's youngest state party chair. She won the highest organizational position in the swing-state’s Democratic Party at 25.
And others are looking to follow her lead. In recent weeks, a handful of young Democrats have announced that they will be primarying powerful incumbents like 85-year old former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, 80-year-old Rep. Jan Schakowsky, and 70-year old Rep. Brad Sherman – to name a few. The challengers are former staffers and progressive influencers in their 20s who say the party’s establishment is too old and out of touch to stand up to Donald Trump.
“Donald Trump and Elon Musk are dismantling our country piece by piece, and so many Democrats seem content to sit back and let them,” says 26-year-old Kat Abughazaleh from behind an oversized podcast microphone as she announces her Congressional campaign via TikTok. “It’s time to drop the excuses and grow a f*cking spine.”
There’s a history here, after all. The party still remembers how Joe Biden stayed in the presidential race until just three months before election day, despite concerns about whether his age was an electoral liability. Many young people in the party still aren't convinced that generational change is happening quickly enough.
“Our party’s greatest problem right now is that people aren’t stepping back enough and saying, ‘Maybe it's not my time anymore,’" says Clayton.
She has a point: The average age of Democrats in Congress is 59 – the party’s third oldest cohort since 1789. Despite Millennials and Gen Z emerging as the demographic power center in American politics, Baby Boomers still make up the largest share of representatives in Congress, making up 42.8% of lawmakers on Capitol Hill.
From 2011 to 2024, there have been an average of 50 retirements per cycle. It is still early days, but so far just four members of the Senate and five members of the House of Representatives have announced they would not seek re-election in 2026. Meanwhile, two Democrats died in office in March.
Dr. Elaine Kamarck, senior electoral politics fellow at the Brookings Institution, expects to see a generational shift in 2026, but says that primary upsets might not be the main driver.
“In spite of all the talk, it is very, very, very rare for members of Congress to lose primaries,” she points out. “They almost never do. It's like 2% usually.”
However, she believes many older members are likely to step down of their own accord, especially if it seems like Democrats have a chance to retake control of Congress from Republicans.
“They have been serving for a long time and have a good sense of when it's time to go,” she says. “No one wants to be the next Ruth Bader Ginsburg, there are a lot of people concerned with serving too long and hurting their own party.”
But does age really matter? What’s clear is that young people approach politics differently than older voters. According to Pew Research Center, voters under 35 – who account for roughly 29% of the national electorate – are markedly less partisan than their elders and are broadly disillusioned with both parties.
“I think that we look at issues more than we do party affiliation,” says Clayton. “Painting things with a broad brush anymore isn’t going to get a young person out to the ballot box. It's going to have to be, ‘how are you going to fix this particular issue that's impacting my life?’”
The economy, cost of living, and housing dominated the list of policy concerns for young people in the 2024 election, followed by foreign policy and climate change.
Can the Dems win back young men? Any successful strategy to capture the youth vote will need to have a big focus on young men, 56% of whom voted Trump in 2024 – a 15 point gain from 2020. Clayton says she recalls hearing that young men felt like the only reason to vote Democrat was “because you were an ally to people that were not men,” rather than because the party was interested in their concerns.
Clayton says the Democrats need to rebrand to make young men see they are the “party of raising the minimum wage, and having the right to access housing when you graduate college or high school and not have to go into debt.”
In 2024, young men were significantly more likely than young women to say that economic issues like jobs and inflation were their biggest political issues, as well as immigration and foreign policy.
Potential presidential hopeful and Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer has begun directly appealing to young men, saying in her most recent State of the State address that her speech was directed “to all young people, but especially to our young men.”
While her speech celebrated the strides women have made in recent generations, including outpacing men in educational achievement, college enrollment, and home-buying, she also acknowledged that the flip side of that progress is a “generation of young men falling behind their fathers and grandfathers.”
What’s the missing piece in the Dem’s midterm makeover? National leadership. Many say the party is lacking a clear leader for the party to rally around – regardless of their age.
Currently, the most popular US politician is 83-year-old Bernie Sanders, who’s net favorability rating is +7 points, the highest of any prominent US political figure. In contrast, the party’s most powerful member, Chuck Schumer’s net approval rating stands at an abysmal -33, almost as unpopular as the Democratic Party itself, which stands at -35.
Sanders is currently on a popular cross country speaking tour that even included a gig introducing Grammy-nominated pop star Clairo at the Coachella music festival. Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, who is nearly half a century younger than Sanders, has made frequent appearances at these events too. She is currently polling ahead of Schumer and is allegedly considering challenging him in the primary.
It's too soon to tell whether AOC, Sanders, or another figure will emerge as a new leader of a party badly in need of a rebrand ahead of the 2026 midterms.
But back in North Carolina, Clayton knows what she wants to see.
“What I'm looking for most right now is not the age of the person that does it, but who's willing to step up and really be the fighter that the Democratic Party needs."
Since this piece was published, 80-year-old Sen. Dick Durbin -- a 5 - term Democrat from Illinois -- has announced that he will not seek reelection because of his age.
Trump in front of a downward trending graph and economic indicators.
America is souring on Trumponomics. Trump may not care.
For someone who campaigned on lowering grocery prices on day one and rode widespread economic discontent to the White House, Donald Trump sure seems bent on pursuing policies that will increase that discontent.
If you don’t believe me, take it from the president himself, who refused to rule out a recession last Sunday and acknowledged that his sweeping tariff plans would cause “a little disturbance.” But, he added, “we are okay with that.”
Are we okay with that, though?
From Trump pump to Trump dump
Trump’s election victory unleashed “animal spirits” as many business leaders and investors hoped he’d follow through on his campaign promises to cut red tape and lower taxes while ignoring the more disruptive planks of his economic platform: tariff hikes and immigration restrictions. Surely much of it was posturing and bluffing, they thought, and Trump’s more extreme impulses would be checked by market-friendly advisers like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. In the worst-case scenario, they assumed Trump would course correct when confronted with sliding stock prices or signs of economic cracks.
Slowly but surely, they are starting to realize they got it wrong. Trump meant what he said and is less bound by constraints than during his first term. (I hate to say I told you so, but it wouldn’t have taken them so long to figure this out if they subscribed to this newsletter.)
The S&P500 has dropped by 8% over the last month (so far) as the president’s promised “golden age” of growth collided with the chaotic reality of Trumponomics. American equities are not only lower than they were before Trump’s inauguration but have erased all gains since he became the odds-on favorite to win the race in October. This represents the worst stock market performance in a president’s first 50 days since Barack Obama took office in the midst of the global financial crisis.
But it’s not just Wall Street that’s souring on Trump’s plans. Consumers, small businesses, and CEOs alike are all reporting sharp declines in confidence, largely due to record uncertainty about tariffs. Manufacturing activity is slowing, retail sales and construction spending are falling, and businesses of all kinds are paring back their investment plans as threats to the US outlook mount.
Inflation expectations are on the rise, with 60% of Americans believing Trump isn’t doing enough to bring down inflation and 68% fearing that his tariffs will lead to higher prices. Most Americans think the economy is on the wrong track and disapprove of the president’s handling of it. No wonder Trump’s net approval has taken a quick hit, his honeymoon ending faster than any other president’s save one: Trump 1.0.
It's the economic uncertainty, stupid
Businesses and investors have reason to worry.
In his first six weeks in office, Trump has made it clear that he is dead serious about building a “tariff wall” around America, not as a negotiating tool but to reshape global trade flows. The US effective tariff rate is set to rise to its highest level since the 1940s by the end of the year, raising prices for American consumers and businesses and slowing down growth. Trump has virtually closed the southern border and ramped up the pace of deportations, which will constrain the labor supply and lead to higher prices and lower growth. He has threatened to eliminate government subsidies, contracts, and grants that businesses, universities, and other organizations rely on. And he has empowered Elon Musk’s chaotic effort to purge, downsize, and capture the administrative state, threatening the delivery of critical public services, amplifying these macroeconomic shocks, and destroying US state capacity.
And yet, these first-order consequences of Trump’s policies are not the core reason why traders and boardrooms are freaking out about the outlook for the US economy. Don’t get me wrong, businesses prefer good policies to bad policies. But they can adapt to bad policies. You know what they can’t adapt to? Policies that can turn on a dime based on the president’s whims.
Maybe you agree with Trump that “trade wars are good and easy to win,” or perhaps you believe his policies will cause short-term pain but be worth it in the long run. But whatever you may think of the merits of his agenda, there’s no denying that the constant uncertainty he brings to the table is terrible for business.
Every business decision is a bet about the future. The one non-negotiable before making any investment is a bare minimum of predictability. When the rules of the game can change any day (and when they’re no longer applied impartially), the rational choice is to put off costly long-term investment plans – even if the possible payoffs are high.
That’s why the extreme policy arbitrariness, volatility, and uncertainty that characterizes Trump 2.0 – best exemplified by his on-again, off-again, on-again tariffs – is the ultimate economic dampener. Even if Trump walks back some tariffs or implements his pro-growth promises, uncertainty – by some metrics already higher than it was during the pandemic, the 2008 financial crisis, and 9/11 – will remain near all-time highs for the foreseeable future, discouraging investment, hiring, and consumption, and raising prices. Its chilling effect will compound the direct impact of the administration’s implemented tariffs, deportations, federal layoffs, and so on. As I warned in Eurasia Group’s Top Risks report, “in the long run this will risk undermining the predictability and performance of the world’s most dynamic economy, preeminent investment destination, and issuer of the global reserve currency.”
No more Trump put?
Trump seems to have no intention of backing off his plans or moderating his “move fast and break things” approach, even in the face of economic dislocation. “Markets are going to go up and they’re going to go down, but, you know what, we have to rebuild our country,” he said at the White House yesterday.
This contrasts sharply with his first term, when Trump considered the stock market a barometer of success. Back then, investors and business leaders knew they could count on the “Trump put” – the president’s tendency to curtail his most economically harmful policies when faced with financial turmoil. Now, Trump is openly saying he doesn’t care that investors believe his agenda could cause a recession and raise prices – because it might, and he’s convinced the sacrifice will be worth it for the greater good. “Will there be some pain?” he asked in February. “Maybe (and maybe not!) But we will make America great again, and it will all be worth the price that must be paid.”
So the Trump put either doesn’t exist anymore, or the threshold is significantly higher than it used to be. This makes sense when you consider the president doesn’t have to (read: can’t) run for reelection again. After being twice impeached, convicted, nearly assassinated, and taken for dead politically, the 78-year-old Trump is in a rush to cement his legacy before his “enemies” get another chance to take him down.
True, most presidents – even lame ducks – would consider avoiding a crippling economic meltdown, scoring a decent result in the midterms, and handing the reins to a same-party successor essential to a good legacy. But Trump is no ordinary president. He does not, for example, care much about the Republican Party (after all, he hasn't been a member for long). What he does care about is his own image. In that sense, he is still constrained by public opinion – or rather, his perception of it.
The key question is whether there’s anyone around him who can speak truth to power to a man who has famously little patience for being told he’s wrong. As I wrote in Eurasia Group’s Top Risks report:
Not only does the president-elect have unified government and consolidated control of the Republican Party, but he is building a more personally loyal and ideologically aligned administration than last time. His team will come into office ready to implement – rather than thwart – Trump’s agenda.
If his first 50 days are any indication, the US economy may be in for a lot more trouble until reality pierces his bubble … if it ever does. The beatings will continue until morale improves.
Surprising Midterm Upset, Democratic House, and New Attorney General
Staten Island might've been the most surprising upset of the midterm elections. It's your US Politics in 60 Seconds with Ben White! And go deeper on topics like cybersecurity and artificial intelligence at Microsoft on The Issues.
Midterm Elections 2018
Kentucky's 6th District could be one of the most exciting races to watch on Tuesday night. It's your US Politics in 60 Seconds!
Ready? Let's go!
And go deeper on topics like cybersecurity and artificial intelligence at Microsoft on The Issues.
Will We See a Blue Wave
This week Ian looks ahead to the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, and digs into what’s at stake. Then he’ll talk to a man who’s got plenty of skin in the game: Joaquin Castro, Democratic Congressman from Texas. And of course, we’ve got your Puppet Regime.
Midterms Meddling, Bloomberg, and Facebook's Global Affairs Head
Midterms meddling, Bloomberg's microchip story, and Facebook's new global affairs head. It's Tech in 60 Seconds with Nicholas Thompson!
Ready? Let's go!
And go deeper on topics like cybersecurity and artificial intelligence at Microsoft Today in Technology.