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US President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, United States, June 28, 2024.
Biden fights for survival
President Joe Biden is doing his best to discourage expectations he will leave the presidential race. On Monday, he made a surprise appearance (via phone) on TV talk show “Morning Joe.” “I’m getting so frustrated by the elites … the elites in the party who … they know so much more,” Biden complained. “Any of these guys don’t think I should, run against me: Go ahead, challenge me at the convention.”
His reasoning is simple: Voters have his back. “The voters of the Democratic Party have voted. They have chosen me to be the nominee of the party. Do we now just say this process didn’t matter?”
He also signaled his intentions in aletter to Democrats in Congress dated Monday. “I am firmly committed to staying this race, to running this race until the end, and to beating Donald Trump.
For now, Biden is making clear he won’t bow out without a fight, but thepolling isn’t moving in his favor, and anxiety appears to be growing among some Democratic lawmakers and big donors that he has no clear strategy to reverse his slide.
The next few days are shaping up as a war of wills between the president and a growing number of power brokers within his party.
Trump's VP pick: The short list
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics this month. Who Trump picks as his VP.
The big story in US politics this month is going to be the debates which are going to be one of the key moments of the campaign, given the enormous downside risk they present for President Biden due to his age. But the other big event of the summer, other than the conventions, is going to be who Trump picks for his vice presidential candidate. And there's been a number of names floated by the campaign, some more conventional than others. And they each have their own set of strengths.
Some of the more surprising names would be JD Vance, who Trump's family is allegedly pushing for him to pick. Vance is a senator from Ohio and one of the leading lights in the populous Republican movement. Never mind his Yale and venture capital background, he is somebody that claims he's out there fighting for the working class, which could help Trump.
Tim Scott, an African-American senator from South Carolina would help bring diversity to the ticket. Perhaps match up well against Kamala Harris in the debates, and is a pretty telegenic defender of Trump who has been outspoken in his praise for the former president since he was defeated in the primary.
Another potential candidate is Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota, a smaller state. But he's a rich man, a successful business guy who's been a very effective Trump surrogate. And he's emerged as a potential pick in the last few months.
You also have a handful of other senators, like Marco Rubio from Florida, who would put a Hispanic on the ticket, or Tom Cotton, who's been a harsh Trump critic in the past, but would bring a lot of national security credibility to President Trump. There's a couple of House members that are on the short list, unclear if they have the experience or TV presence to be what Trump is looking for.
Typically candidates will choose a vice president based on some political liability that they think they have, whether it's the balance of the ticket in terms of age or gender or racial identity or maybe it's a regional thing. Mike Pence was chosen because he was strong with evangelical voters and Trump was not. It isn't exactly clear what Trump's going for with his VP pick. Probably it's somebody who he thinks is loyal to him, somebody that can defend him well on TV, and probably someone that's not going to show him up too much as an actual vice president. Really any one of the names on this list could achieve those goals, now but what they probably won't do is give Trump a big boost in this campaign, which is going to be about the two headliners, Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
Human rights activists demand the safe return of Ricardo Lagunes and Antonio Díaz, community defenders who disappeared on January 15. Mexico City, Mexico, January 22, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Environmentalists targeted, World Bank outlook improves, mass shooting in Louisville, fiery cocktails in Northern Ireland, Winnie-the-Pooh gets punched
24: This year alone, at least two dozen environmental activists have already been murdered or disappeared in Mexico and Central America, according to an investigation by The Guardian. Many are from indigenous communities protesting against mining activities on their traditional lands.
2: Outgoing World Bank President David Malpass revised the international lender’s 2023 global growth outlook on Monday, bumping it from 1.7% to 2%. He credited China’s improved economic trajectory for the change. Malpass, who plans to step down in June, kicked off his final World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings with the news.
145: The mass shooting at a bank in Louisville, Kentucky, on Monday was at least the 145th incident of its kind in the United States since the start of this year, according to the Gun Violence Archive. Five people – including a close friend of the state governor – were killed and nine injured when a disgruntled bank employee opened fire.
4: On the eve of President Biden’s trip to Northern Ireland to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, at least four men were spotted hurling petrol bombs at police. The incident occurred during a parade organized by people who oppose the agreement, which ended decades of conflict between Irish nationalists and the British government. For more on the contentious history, read our primer here.
300: A wildly popular new patch worn by Taiwanese fighter pilots shows a native Formosan black bear punching Winnie-the-Pooh – a common satirical stand-in for Chinese president Xi Jinping – in the face. The patch has been around for a year, but orders blew up this weekend after China conducted its mock invasion of Taiwan. A little e-commerce research shows that you too can own one of these patches for a mere 300 NT$ (about US $9.60).
U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank in Washington, D.C., March 13, 2023.
SVB collapse: Don’t say the B-word
US President Joe Biden on Monday addressed the nation to assure Americans that, whatever the fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, their deposits and the entire banking industry are both "safe."
US markets responded with mixed signals to Biden's speech. On the one hand, stocks initially tumbled over fears that other regional banks might soon crumble too (banks in general took a hit because high-interest rates are really hurting their bottom line). On the other, non-bank stocks closed in the black due to growing chatter that next week the Fed might hold off on further rate hikes to give the financial sector some breathing room.
The situation remains fluid, and it's still too early to say whether the so-called "backstop" measures taken by US authorities will be enough to stop the risk of SVB's insolvency infecting other regional banks.
For more on how we got here, read our explainer Q&A with Eurasia Group’s Celeste Tambaro here.
Meanwhile, the more uncertainty, the louder the calls will get for Biden to do something more. Perhaps even (gasp!) the B-word: bailout. That would be very bad news for the president, who knows that bailouts are politically toxic. So toxic, in fact, that opposition to them brings together odd bedfellows like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) on the democratic-socialist left and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) on the libertarian right.
For Sanders, SVB's collapse is a direct result of the Trump administration's 2018 push to deregulate smaller banks, as if we had learned nothing from 2008 — not to mention the savings and loan crisis of the 1990s. For Massie, the culprit is the Fed for keeping interest rates too low for too long, which spurred the rise of piggy banks for venture capitalists like SVB, and then for raising rates to tame inflation.
Sanders and Massie agree that bailouts create a moral hazard by encouraging banks to gamble with people's money. In this case, though, what US regulators have done is bend the rules for SVB depositors, including many tech companies.
Yet, what if the Biden administration needs to consider a bailout to prevent a financial meltdown? It's pretty clear how Sanders and Massie will vote, but other lawmakers might need to make a tough choice. And if both parties are too scared of their flanks, political paralysis is all but assured.
What do you think? Let us know here and we might include your response in an upcoming edition.Israelis demonstrate during "Day of Resistance" as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's nationalist coalition government presses on with its contentious judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel.
What We’re Watching: Chaos in Israel, Franco-British thaw, Trump's deepening legal woes, Biden’s budget battle
Israel’s unraveling
The situation in Israel continued to unravel on Thursday when protesters against the government’s planned judicial overhaul took to the streets in a national “day of resistance.” In a bid to create a balagan (state of chaos), Israelis blocked the Ayalon Highway, a main artery leading to Tel Aviv’s international airport, to try to disrupt PM Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu’s planned trip to Rome (he got out)! Indeed, footage shows police using heavy-handed tactics to break up the crowds, but that didn’t appear tough enough for far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who proceeded to fire the Tel Aviv district commander, decrying police for “not fulfilling my orders.” Israel's attorney general has since ordered the freezing of the police chief's ouster, citing legal concerns. Meanwhile, in a very rare emotional speech, President Isaac Herzog – who holds a mostly ceremonial position and remains above the fray of day-to-day politics – urged the government to ditch the judicial reforms. Crucially, things took a turn for the worse Thursday night when a Palestinian gunman opened fire on gatherers in central Tel Aviv, wounding at least three people. With deepening twin crises at home – a constitutional catastrophe and deteriorating security situation – Bibi is going to have a harder time than ever keeping his discordant far-right coalition intact.
Are French-UK relations back on track?
After years of tension, UK-France relations appear to be on the mend! British PM Rishi Sunak travelled to France on Friday to meet with President Emmanuel Macron for the first summit between the countries in … five years. “It’s the beginning of a beautiful, renewed friendship,” a French diplomat said, which was presumably a dig at former PM Boris Johnson, who butted heads with Macron. What's on the agenda? Maintaining a united front against Russia, post-Brexit fishing rights in the English Channel (see this explainer on the great roe row here) and climate change mitigation. Crucially, they are also focusing on how to tackle an influx of migrants arriving by boat through the English Channel. After Sunak this week unveiled fresh legislation that would ban migrants who enter illegally from applying for asylum, a move broadly condemned as a violation of international law, London confirmed Friday that it will offer Paris a lot of cash to help patrol French beaches, which is where most small boats headed for the UK come from. While this meeting is mostly about showing the world that relations are warm and fuzzy, the timing is still a bit awkward: On Monday, Sunak will appear in San Diego along with President Joe Biden and Australian PM Anthony Albanese to unveil the next stage of the AUKUS agreement, the trilateral security pact that incensed the French who were pushed to the side.
Trump may soon face criminal charges
Is an indictment looming? Manhattan prosecutors offered former President Donald Trump the opportunity to testify before a grand jury that’s looking into his business dealings, including alleged payment of hush money to adult film star Stormy Daniels. The offer to testify – most potential defendants decline – usually signals that an indictment is about to drop. Trump is expected to steer clear of the grand jury, but his lawyers will be fighting in his corner and meeting with the District Attorney’s office in a bid to dodge criminal charges. If they fail, Trump may become the first former US president to face indictment – and the NY-based case could be just the start. District Attorney prosecutors in Georgia are also investigating and expected to bring charges against Trump for alleged interference in the 2020 election, while federal prosecutors are investigating his bid to undermine the election outcome. Whatever happens, No. 45 says he will stay in the 2024 presidential race, and experts say there’s nothing legally barring him from running, even if he’s convicted.
Biden’s budget blast
The US president on Thursday unveiled a $6.8 trillion budget proposal that would beef up the military, protect and expand social programs, and slash the deficit by $3 trillion over the next decade. How? By raising a slew of taxes on wealthier Americans (those who make more than $400 grand a year) and slapping a 25% tax on the wealth of billionaires. The budget as it currently stands has no chance of passing the GOP-controlled House — Speaker Kevin McCarthy immediately slammed the budget as “unserious” — but Biden knows that. The proposal is an opening salvo in what will be a bruising battle with Republicans, who say they want a balanced budget in order to raise the debt ceiling but have yet to produce a viable plan of their own. As Biden eyes 2024, that fiscal fight — in which he’ll highlight his progressive spending priorities — will be one of the cornerstones of his campaign.A mock 10 baht banknote bearing an illustration of a yellow duck instead of the Thai king or his predecessor is pictured in Bangkok on Nov. 25, 2020.
Hard Numbers: Thai royal canard, Biden’s deficit plan, Japan’s gender pay gap, golden Odin, Greek walkout
2: Prepare to read the next sentence twice. A man in Thailand is facing two years in jail for selling calendars of … rubber ducks. The squeaky fowl has long been a symbol of the country’s pro-democracy movement, and since these birds were dressed in royal regalia, authorities say they insulted the monarchy. The country’s defamation laws have been used to convict 200 people since 2020.
2 trillion: With a partisan battle over the debt ceiling looming, President Joe Biden on Thursday is set to unveil a plan to reduce the federal budget deficit by $2 trillion over the next 10 years. Don’t expect Republicans to jump for joy though – the plan is expected to call for tax increases for the wealthy and corporations but won’t satisfy the GOP’s demands for spending cuts.
75: PM Fumio Kishida vowed yesterday to “work even harder” to tackle the massive gender pay gap in Japan, where women earn 75% of what men do for full-time work. The Land of the Rising Sun has ranked abysmally on the World Economic Forum’s gender parity report despite efforts by successive governments to tackle the issue.
1,500: Historians shouldn’t be too Thor about this. Scientists have uncovered the oldest-known reference to the Norse god Odin on a gold disc dating back 1,500 years. The ornamental pendant is part of a trove of gold found in Denmark in 2020, and its inscription, “He’s Odin’s man,” likely refers to an unknown lord or king.
60,000: At least 60,000 Greeks joined anti-government protests Wednesday, a week after a deadly train crash — blamed on years of underinvestment in infrastructure — killed 57 people. Most protesters were in Athens, where they marched to parliament chanting "murderers” in the biggest challenge to date to PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis.A young woman lies in hospital after reports of poisoning at an unspecified location in Iran in this still image from video from March 2, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Iranian schoolgirls poisoned, Macron declares Françafrique “over,” Biden tries to tackle fraud, a rare miracle in southern Turkey
17: The Iranian government says it’s investigating a spate of alleged poisonings of schoolgirls, with at least 17 hospitalized in Tehran and elsewhere this week, adding to the hundreds of girls hospitalized in recent months. Masih Alinejad, who recently appeared on GZERO World, says that many Iranians believe the Islamic Republic is behind the attacks and is using them to punish school girls who recently came out in droves to protest the government.
4: “The age of Francafrique is well over,” President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday as he began a four-nation tour to Gabon, Angola, the Republic of Congo, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Macron said he’ll continue to pull French troops from the region in the coming months after withdrawing soldiers from Mali and Burkina Faso last year.
1.6 billion: President Joe Biden on Thursday asked Congress to approve $1.6 billion to combat fraud related to pandemic relief programs. The White House faced mounting criticism after swindlers took advantage of its generous $5 trillion COVID-era stimulus.
23: Good news alert! Alex the dog was found alive under rubble in Hatay, Turkey, 23 days after a deadly earthquake decimated southern Turkey and northern Syria. Watching Alex lick the ear of his rescuer is a rare joy.Protestors gather outside the U.S. Supreme Court ahead of the oral arguments in two cases that challenge President Joe Biden's $400 billion student loan forgiveness plan.
What We’re Watching: SCOTUS mulling student debt relief, Blinken visiting Central Asia, Biden's partial TikTok ban, Petro’s post-honeymoon phase
US Supreme Court weighs student loan forgiveness
The US Supreme Court began hearing arguments on Tuesday in a pair of cases that will test the limitations of presidential power and could derail Joe Biden’s plan to forgive $400 billion in student debt. Biden campaigned on debt relief, promising to help families burdened by the pandemic-fueled economic crisis. But now the court will decide whether Biden has the authority to forgive student loans. The White House cites a 2003 law aimed at alleviating hardship suffered by federal student loan recipients following a national emergency, but opponents say debt relief should require congressional approval. Biden hopes to fulfill his campaign promise ahead of next year’s presidential race, and millions of millennials and Gen-Z scholars – many of whom could see up to $20,000 of their federal student loan debt wiped away – will be waiting with bated breath. A decision will drop before the court adjourns in June, but so far, justices in the conservative majority seem critical of Biden’s move.
Blinken’s trip to Central Asia
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday met with foreign ministers from five former Soviet Republics: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Blinken wants to signal solidarity with Russia’s neighbors and try to ensure that trade routes in these countries are not used by Russia to evade Western sanctions. The 'Stans are happy for the support because they have all felt pressure from Moscow to form closer ties with Russia. In particular, Putin has pressed Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, without success, to support Russia’s war in Ukraine. Tokayev has a reason for concern: Putin has cited the defense of persecuted ethnic Russians in Ukraine as a motive for his war, and Kazakhstan is home to the second-largest population of ethnic Russians among former Soviet Republics. These states, faced with varying degrees of economic trouble exacerbated by the food and fuel inflation that followed the invasion of Ukraine, could also use some direct US help. During the visit, Blinken announced $25 million of new funding to support economic growth in the region in addition to $25 million the Biden administration had already pledged.
Will China respond to Biden’s government TikTok ban?
China hit back at the US on Tuesday for joining the European Union in banning TikTok from government devices. China’s foreign ministry said that Washington’s move – which gives government employees 30 days to remove the social app from their phones – is an abuse of “state power.” Canada, for its part, followed up with a similar ban. These developments come amid fears that the app, owned by Chinese company ByteDance but based in Singapore, is being used by China’s Communist Party to gather government data. Will Beijing retaliate? Anna Ashton, a China expert at Eurasia Group, thinks any significant reprisal by Beijing for a partial or even a full TikTok ban in the US is unlikely. “It isn’t clear that Beijing will bear any significant loss if TikTok stops operating in the United States, nor is it clear that there would be any real gain in lashing out over such a ban,” she says, noting that there was no clear retaliation from Beijing when India banned TikTok a few years back. What’s more, Ashton says, “TikTok is a private company, and social media companies (much like online sales platforms) are not strategic priorities in China’s technological development plans.” Meanwhile, Congress will proceed on Wednesday to further a bill that would allow the Biden administration to ban TikTok for America’s 100 million users. Being tough on China is a rare bipartisan policy issue. Still, it’s unclear whether the Democratic-controlled Senate will back the GOP-sponsored legislation.