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Demonstrators display images of Mahsa Amini, who died in policy custody in Tehran in Sept. 2022.
Viewpoint: Iran braces for anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s death
This Saturday marks one year since Mahsa Amini’s death at the hands of Iran’s morality police sparked months of protests, and the authorities are taking steps to prevent another massive outbreak of unrest. They have preemptively arrested women’s rights activists, closed public spaces, and bolstered security forces in major cities. Yet public discontent continues to simmer in the Islamic Republic as ordinary people perceive a widening gulf between their hopes and concerns and the interests of the country’s clerical regime.
We asked Eurasia Group expert Gregory Brew if he thinks the authorities will be able to keep a lid on tensions in the coming days.
Do you expect Iranians to take to the streets this weekend?
Anniversaries are important in Iran, particularly those marking the passing of major political figures. The death of the 22-year-old Amini became hugely important for millions of Iranians, both in Iran and among the Iranian global diaspora, so there are bound to be demonstrations to mark the anniversary. They’re unlikely to be very large, however. The regime has been taking steps to deter new protests. Ordinary Iranians are reluctant to take to the streets since the crackdown last year, which saw security forces killing hundreds of protestors while wounding and arresting thousands more. Several high-profile trials and executions of arrested protestors hammered home the repressive message. The legacy of that crackdown will deter people from coming out in large numbers. But there’s sure to be some fireworks, both on 16 September and in subsequent days.
Did last year's protests achieve anything?
It’s true the protests were unsuccessful in forcing political change. Hardliners, led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi, still dominate the system. But it would be wrong to say the protests didn’t have an impact. They revealed the depths of dissatisfaction with the regime and galvanized opposition to hijab rules that require women to wear headscarves in public. So, while they may not have changed the system, the protests made it abundantly clear that ordinary Iranians are fed up with the status quo and are more willing to defy the government.
What is the status of the hijab issue today?
Hijab rules represent the government’s commitment to enforcing a strict form of Islamic law that many Iranians do not subscribe to. So, they’ve always been a source of controversy. Since the protests, the issue has been one of the most salient in Iran’s domestic politics. The government initially eased off enforcing these rules and adopted a carrot-and-stick approach: As the security forces cracked down on demonstrators, they looked the other way when it came to hijab infractions. Though this helped the government avoid more unrest, it left Iran’s hardliner leadership with a huge problem. Millions of Iranian women now see the hijab as a matter of personal choice, rather than state mandate. Non-compliance is commonplace.
Yet the government cannot permanently retreat on the hijab, a key pillar of its ideology. So, in the last few months, there has been a gradual crackdown: The morality police have returned, women are monitored for infractions, and a sweeping new hijab law is set to take effect next year. But ordinary Iranians are likely to resist this enforcement. There’s no putting the genie back in the bottle.
How will these developments affect next year’s elections?
While Iran’s political system is authoritarian, Iranian elections have historically featured high turnout and vigorous participation. That changed in 2020-2021, however, as authorities barred reformists and moderates from participating, clearing the way for hardliner dominance. The result has been a decline in participation. Most Iranians now regard the country’s elections as a sham.
Iran’s leaders want higher participation in elections, since they provide a basis for the government’s claim to legitimacy. But the authorities won’t risk allowing reformists to compete, since doing so could threaten their own position. So, the odds of a more open, permissive election are pretty low. Iranians are unlikely to return to the polls if their only options are more hardliners.
Given broad dissatisfaction and frequent bouts of unrest, is the status quo sustainable?
It’s clear that a majority of Iranians are dissatisfied – corruption, inflation, the effects of climate change, and general oppression all feed into this sentiment. The leadership isn’t capable of solving these problems. That means that it will have to rely on suppressing dissent to remain in power. That’s not sustainable.
The Islamic Republic has a vast capacity for oppression. It has proven, time and again, that it is comfortable killing its own people in large numbers. That explains why there’s been little appetite to return to the streets: Why risk injury, arrest, and possible death if the chances of political change are so small?
That said, it’s important not to lose perspective. Changes to Iran’s political system are possible, particularly in the event of a shift in leadership at the top. Khamenei’s death, which could happen at any time, will lead to a succession crisis that could create space for changes, and possibly reforms, within the system. The Islamic Republic appears resilient, but there are numerous cracks in the façade. And just as the regime has shown its resilience, so too have the Iranian people illustrated a tenacious interest in securing greater freedoms. That’s a struggle that will persist long after the anniversary of Amini’s death.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of Russia's Wagner mercenary force, speaks in Paraskoviivka, Ukraine, in this still image from an undated video released on March 3.
What We’re Watching: Prigozhin’s precarious position, Israeli reservists vs. Bibi, Iran seeks schoolgirl poisoning culprits
The Russian warlord shaking his fist toward Moscow
Yevgeny Prigozhin is angry, and he wants the world to know about it. In a recent video that’s now making international news, the owner of the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary force fighting in Ukraine, complains his men are not receiving ammunition he personally requested from Russian military chief Valery Gerasimov, and that the reason might be “betrayal.” He speculates his men are being “set up” as scapegoats in case Russia loses the war. Whatever the truth, Russian public infighting over the war looks to be intensifying. Russian forces have been “closing in” on Bakhmut for months, and Ukrainian troops still appear to be holding most of their ground. It may be a sign that Russia’s current advance won't accomplish much. According to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, “The Russian offensive to capture Bakhmut will likely culminate whether Russian forces capture the city or not, and the Russian military will likely struggle to maintain any subsequent offensive operations for some months.” Ukraine, meanwhile, continues to gear up for an expected counteroffensive in the coming weeks as Russian forces are depleted and new weapons arrive in Ukrainian hands from Western allies.
Israel’s ‘Mr. Security’ antagonizes the military
There’s growing fear of a trickle-down effect after a group of army reservists opposed to the Netanyahu government’s proposed judicial overhaul said they would boycott training exercises later this week. On Sunday, 37 out of 40 pilots from the Israeli Air Force’s 69th Squadron – responsible for operating the advanced F-15I fighter jets (used in the past to conduct surgical hits on strategic targets inside Syria and Iran) – said that they won’t report for training due to the government's attempt to dilute the power of Israel’s independent judiciary. Crucially, they will report for duty if their service is needed, the group said, though analysts point out that training is crucial to the upkeep of this unit. While some military members have voiced opposition to the government’s judicial play, this move represents the most high-profile defection to date. What’s more, there have been reports that mid-tier pilots currently on active duty might also refuse to serve, which would have significant implications for Israel’s security posture. But PM Benjamin Netanyahu, likely facing pressure from his far-right coalition partners, doesn’t seem keen to lower the temperature, saying on Monday that “conscientious objectors threaten the foundation of our democracy.” Indeed, Netanyahu has long positioned himself as “Mr. Security,” but that’s going to be increasingly hard to do as he picks a fight with swaths of the military.
Who’s behind chemical attacks on Iranian schoolgirls?
The Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Monday finally addressed the spate of chemical attacks that has hospitalized more than 1,000 Iranian schoolgirls since late November. After reports that schools in 21 of Iran’s 30 provinces have been hit, he said the perpetrators must face the “harshest punishment,” while the country's top judicial officer said those responsible would face the death penalty. But who’s behind the attacks? Several government ministers have suggested that radical Islamists opposed to girls’ education are responsible for the poisonings that have sent girls to hospital with symptoms of nausea and vomiting, while others have suggested that the regime could be targeting the girls as a reprisal for the cohort’s participation in recent anti-government protests. Still, the regime has been broadly criticized for failing to address the issue sooner. Meanwhile, parents of poisoned girls protesting in Tehran were beaten by security officials, according to footage shared on social media.
A young woman lies in hospital after reports of poisoning at an unspecified location in Iran in this still image from video from March 2, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Iranian schoolgirls poisoned, Macron declares Françafrique “over,” Biden tries to tackle fraud, a rare miracle in southern Turkey
17: The Iranian government says it’s investigating a spate of alleged poisonings of schoolgirls, with at least 17 hospitalized in Tehran and elsewhere this week, adding to the hundreds of girls hospitalized in recent months. Masih Alinejad, who recently appeared on GZERO World, says that many Iranians believe the Islamic Republic is behind the attacks and is using them to punish school girls who recently came out in droves to protest the government.
4: “The age of Francafrique is well over,” President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday as he began a four-nation tour to Gabon, Angola, the Republic of Congo, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Macron said he’ll continue to pull French troops from the region in the coming months after withdrawing soldiers from Mali and Burkina Faso last year.
1.6 billion: President Joe Biden on Thursday asked Congress to approve $1.6 billion to combat fraud related to pandemic relief programs. The White House faced mounting criticism after swindlers took advantage of its generous $5 trillion COVID-era stimulus.
23: Good news alert! Alex the dog was found alive under rubble in Hatay, Turkey, 23 days after a deadly earthquake decimated southern Turkey and northern Syria. Watching Alex lick the ear of his rescuer is a rare joy.
Women rising up against Iran's regime: journalist and activist Masih Alinejad
Iran is facing the biggest uprising Iran since the so-called "Green Movement" in 2009.
The rallying cry began after a young woman, Mahsa Amini, died after being beaten by cops for not wearing her headscarf properly. Since then, more than 14,000 people have been arrested, at least 326 killed, and one executed.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to Iranian journalist and activist Masih Alinejad, a sworn enemy of the Supreme Leader; it's widely believed that Iranian spies have tried to kidnap and assassinate her in New York.
From Alinejad's perspective, for the first time in Iran's history, people are setting aside long-held sectarian divisions — including toward minority Kurd and coming together to protest the regime.
And many even cheered the national soccer team's elimination at the World Cup because some players were seen as puppets of the regime.
She has a clear message to the West: If you want to help, don't go back to the 2015 nuclear deal and let Iranians bring about regime change on their own.
This interview was featured in a GZERO World episode: "Iran v. the Islamic Republic: Fighting Iran’s gender apartheid regime" on December 12, 2022.
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- Great Satan on the pitch, big troubles at home — Iran's World Cup dilemma ›
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Iranian activists want the West to stop legitimizing Iran's regime
French President Emmanuel Macron recently got flak for shaking the hand of Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi. In part to smooth things over, Macron agreed to meet with dissidents — including journalist and activist Masih Alinejad.
Her message to him and the West in general? Recall your ambassadors from Iran and don't return to the 2015 nuclear deal.
"The only thing can make [the regime] survive [is] the US government and its allies to get back to the deal," Alinejad tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
And let Iranian's take care of the regime change.
"We, the people of Iran, are doing this and I want them to recognize this revolution and stop legitimizing one of the most barbaric regime," she says. "Is that too much to ask?"
Watch the GZERO World episode: Iran v. the Islamic Republic: Fighting Iran’s gender apartheid regime
Masih Alinejad lives in Brooklyn. Iran wants to kill her.
Iranian journalist and activist Masih Alinejad has long been in Tehran's crosshairs, accused of being an agent of the United States.
She denies it. "I'm not an American agent. I have agency," Alinejad tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
But the regime has continued to look for ways to target her, even from her home in Brooklyn.
"In front of the eyes of free world, the Islamic Republic sent people here in New York to kill you, to assassinate you, to kidnap you. This is scary," she says. Alinejad has been living in safe houses, here in New York, for months.
"It seems that even America is not safe."
Watch the GZERO World episode: Iran v. the Islamic Republic: Fighting Iran’s gender apartheid regime
Iran's people vs. hardline rulers
Woman. Life. Freedom.
Those three words have filled the streets of Iran since the women-led protests agains the regime erupted last September.
The rallying cry began after a young woman, Mahsa Amini, died after being beaten by cops for not wearing her headscarf properly.
Since then, more than 14,000 people have been arrested, at least 326 killed, and one executed. It's the biggest uprising Iran has seen since the so-called "Green Movement" in 2009, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.
Until recently, there seemed to be an opening for political reform on women in Iran.
But those hopes were dashed in 2021, when the the Supreme Leader's handpicked candidate won the presidential "election".
It's hard to say what'll happen next, although the regime will likely hang on. But even if the protesters do succeed, it's unclear what "winning" will mean. Or what cost it will exact.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Iran v. the Islamic Republic: Fighting Iran’s gender apartheid regime
How the Iranian regime’s brutality is backfiring
Iran's crackdown on the ongoing women-led protests against the regime has been fierce — but uneven. Protestors in the Kurdish region, for instance, have faced brutal, and frequently fatal backlash from the government.
Yet the people have come out everywhere.
Why? "The more that they kill, the more people get angry to take back to the streets," Iranian activist and journalist Masih Alinejad tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
And the unity, she adds, is scaring the regime. For the first time in Iran's history, Alinejad says, people are setting aside long-held sectarian divisions — including toward minority Kurd and coming together to protest this regime.