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Biden isn't going anywhere for now
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week. The topic everyone is discussing, of course, is what is the state of play in the US election for President Biden's reelection campaign in particular? What's going to happen? What are the outcomes?
Well, what's going to happen at least for the near term, is that Biden isn't going anywhere. He would have to decide, to stand down. He certainly is not prepared to do that. His team would have to tell him strongly that they feel like he's making a mistake. They're not prepared to do that, either. And this is something we've seen on a few occasions. Remember, Biden has been serving at high levels in Foreign Office for decades as vice president for eight years, in addition to president for almost four and senator including running the Foreign Relations Committee for decades and decades. And so the people around him, they are very loyal. They have a lot of experience. And they've been on and committed to Team Biden for a very long time. They absolutely are willing to give him advice. And they execute as well as they can, on his directives. But they are very unwilling to challenge him, particularly when he feels strongly about an outcome.
And we've seen this play out on Russia-Ukraine, Biden was unwilling to talk about moving towards a negotiated settlement as the Ukrainians were doing better and better. They were kicking it down the road. They weren't having the difficult decision because no one was willing to really challenge it. And then the situation for the Ukrainians started getting worse, and it was “they'll manage reasonably well,” the tactical on the day to day. And you have a strong coalition that the Americans are leading. But at no point are you making the big sudden change. It's very cautious. It's very conservative. and it tends to kick the can on big, controversial potential decisions.
I've seen the same thing in the war in the Middle East. A lot of people feeling like Biden should have been tougher and stronger against Prime Minister Netanyahu much earlier, especially as he was taking his own whacks against Biden. Biden unwilling to do that. They kept kicking the can. And so you got incremental decision making, very cautious, very risk averse, very conservative. Every one of the tactical decisions were pretty well executed.
But willingness to take big bets and risks, much much less so. And now we see the same thing playing out on the election. For the last year, it's been very clear to anyone that has met with Biden. And I've said this, certainly publicly, and I've heard it from all sorts of leaders, whether it's CEOs or leaders of the G7 or the G20 or the big multilateral organizations, that Biden is not someone that is capable of strongly leading the country for another four years through 86. The age of 86, too frail, too slow, losing a number of steps, since he was running back in 2020. But at no point was someone around Biden willing to have the tough conversation. And Biden himself, wasn't willing to hear it. And so you kick the can, you kick the can, you continue to manage it until it becomes a bigger problem. And that's where we are, right now. And it is certainly true that the leadership of the Democratic Party, and the top leaders of the House and Senate and the top governors, none of them are straying from the party line.
They are rallying around the president and saying, “yeah, he had a bad debate, but he can still do this.” But there are a lot of people, that certainly matter, for the president, in terms of the mainstream media, as well as in terms of senior leaders in the former Obama camp that are saying that this guy needs to step down. And I do think it matters when the paper of record for the center left, The New York Times, has not just their individual columnist, but the editorial board writing that he needs to stand down. And I think it matters when respected advisers to Obama, like Axelrod, Favreau and a number of others are saying you need to step down. Now, Biden doesn't trust those people. In terms of the Obama folks, he thinks that they're the ones that gave it to Clinton as an opportunity, when it should have been his, passed him over. If Obama said that to him personally and strongly directly, it would be taken differently. But certainly, Biden and his senior team won't accept a recommendation for them, and they won't accept a recommendation from the mainstream media.
I mean, if you look at the seven stages of grief, they are through shock. They're through denial. They're roughly in the anger phase. But they're not yet in depression. And they certainly aren't engaging in bargaining. So, I think we're very far from Biden actually stepping down. Now, having said that, there's still five months before the election, and that's a long time for an 81-year-old that has bad days. And, you know, the fact that you now do have, for the first time, some damaging information from inside the administration, for example, the Axios piece that said that he's pretty strong, and being able to engage from 10 am to 4 pm. That's an indictment for someone at 81 that would need to govern until he's 86. And that's the kind of thing that would not have been shared with the media six months ago. And now it is. And when you see members of the family and senior friends and formal advisers to Biden blaming the senior team of staffers for not prepping him well during the debate, that again, we haven't seen that kind of internal animosity.
And if you start to see senior members of the team turning out against either anonymously or not, Biden sticking around because they think he can't win, that becomes much more dangerous. So I think this gets harder to manage. It's easy to manage right after the debate when everyone recognizes that he's not prepared to step down. But as this story continues to play, and yes, they can try to manage him and limit the time that he spends with the public. But this is going to be the focus for all of the media going forward over the coming months, and of course, is a very easy thing for the Trump team to run on running against Biden, as opposed to running on Trump's deficiencies, is a much better place for them to be. We are in a horrible place in terms of the state of this US election.
I'm sure many of you have seen the CBS YouGov poll over the weekend that shows that over 70% of registered voters believe that Biden is not cognitively capable to stand, and run the country for four years. They think he should stand down. 50% of registered voters believe the same about Trump. That number is way too high. It's too high for Biden. It's too high for Trump. We have never been in an environment where the American people feel so badly about both candidates. And yes, of course, there is an enthusiasm gap and Trump supporters are much more willing to forgive Trump's unfitness or even to paint Trump's unfitness as a positive, than team, than the people around Biden.
And that is a problem. You're more likely to see a bumper sticker, or a cap for Trump among his supporters than for Biden among his supporters. And in an election where turnout matters, the fact that large numbers of Democrats are now questioning the fitness for office of their own candidate, I think does make it more likely that Trump is going to win. I had very, very low confidence going into the debate about what the outcome of the election would be. I still have low confidence, but it is higher than it was before the debate. This is a major inflection point in my view. And it makes it more likely that Trump is going to win. And it would put more pressure on the Biden team to consider alternatives.
I do believe that if they wanted to go the alternative route, alternatives exist. First of all, at this stage, given Biden's age and given the way he is likely to appear over the coming five months, I don't think that Kamala Harris is a worse choice, is less likely to win than Biden. So simply stepping back, continuing to campaign. But Kamala becomes the candidate, I would say at this point, and I wouldn't have said that six months ago, she is likely to take the election as Biden would be, both in my view, on balance, likely to lose. But I also think that the potential of bringing in somebody else in the convention, and there are a lot of strong candidates out there.
Gina Raimondo would be certainly towards the top, especially because she is actively a very trusted part of the Biden cabinet. So it's less of a transition. Pete Buttigieg, outside, Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, Jared Polis, there are a number, that are strong that is also, of course, a big risk because here, not only are you pushing aside Kamala Harris, which will antagonize a lot of her supporters, and there are many, but also would be putting up someone who does not have a significant track record in national politics. And that reminds me of Ron DeSantis. So many anti-Trump Republicans were all in for DeSantis. This guy was going to be the golden child for the Republican Party, take out Trump. And he was an absolute nothing lightweight on the national stage and got pasted by Trump. And that, of course, is a danger. So I understand that tactically, when you have a team that is oriented towards consensus around Biden, that on any given day, putting your head up and saying, “I think it's time for you to go, sir,” is not a great strategy.
And of course, that leads to many, many, many, many days of kicking the can until the point when it is a lot harder and the dangers are a lot greater than they were if you had had that conversation, say, a year ago. Also keep in mind that when Biden first won the election in 2020, became president 2021, literally no one around him thought he was going to run again. So, I mean, they did think this is a one term president. He trounced Trump. there'll be somebody else on the Republican side, probably because he's too old too, Trump is unfit. And Biden will have one term and then it'll go on to somebody else. But of course, if you're unwilling to make those plans on any given day, you end up in a non-optimal place.
And that is where the Democrats are right now. The Republicans are in a non-optimal place for very different reasons. They're also facing someone who they certainly would much rather be running with someone else because they'd have a much higher chance of winning if this were Biden at this age versus Nikki Haley, the likelihood Haley would win would be, I think, a layup or a slam dunk. It's not where we are, even now with Trump, because so many people think that Trump is problematic and for very good reason, to run. But the likelihood that Trump, of course, will be removed, zero. Despite all of that, and he does control the Republican Party to a much greater degree than Biden controls the Democratic Party. And you can say, well, that's unfair. And they aren't the same standards, but, you know, what you would like to happen is not where we are. Where we are, is that Biden is the one that has to make this decision. And it's going to get harder for him over the course of the coming months.
That's it for me. And I'll talk to you all real soon.
The hunt for the killer clip
Happy debate night as we all hunker down for the face-to-face rematch in Atlanta of the Age vs. Rage election, now just hours away.
More than anything else tonight at the presidential debate, Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be hunting for the one viral video clip that will define their opponent and frame the campaign. For the first time in close to four years, they will share a stage, and millions of people across blue and red states will finally exit their bias-affirming bubbles and tune in collectively to a single program. Just that fact alone — that it’s a moment when tens of millions of people across the hyper-fractured country gather for a common, shared political reality — makes tonight critical.
The three big factors: Age, Rage, and what happens on Stage. Make no mistake, policies and issues are critical and should be the main course tonight. Immigration, inflation, taxes, foreign affairs, abortion stance, and those pesky 34 felonies … all those matter and will be the focus of the moderators' agenda, according to CNN. But since the 1960 Nixon-Kennedy faceoff through today’s hyper-accelerated, viral social media culture, the impact of presidential debates has moved from policy to personality, from ideas to image. It is all about “the clip.”
There are different kinds of clips.
The Stumble Clip: Biden is much more vulnerable here because the consensus narrative around him is that, at 81, he’s simply too old for the job. One verbal trip, a name mix-up, a fumble, or one inopportune freeze will have exponentially outsized impact. The worst stumble clip might well be when former Texas Gov. Rick Perry ran for the Republican nomination in 2011 and famously forgot which government agency he promised to cut. “It is three agencies of government that are gone when I get there," he thundered on live TV. “Commerce, education, and … umm … uh, the, uh … what’s the third one there … let’s see …” He started to fumble desperately and, pressed to name the agency by the moderator, he checked his notes for a lifeline. Only there was nothing there. Perry’s blank space went viral long before Taylor Swift’s, and he finally petered out, mumbling the politically radioactive word: “Oops.” It was over. Biden cannot have a Perry moment.
Even at his best, Biden speaks in a slow, raspy drawl, like the sludge-filled tributaries of the Lackawanna River, which cuts through his hometown of Scranton, Pennsylvania. Between awkward pauses, Biden often punctuates his words with sock-hop-era words like “malarkey,” which adds sepia tones to his already vintage vibe struggling to find a place in a hi-def world.
Trump will try to interrupt, even if they mute his mic, to throw Biden off, while attacking the president on the border, the Middle East, and inflation. So, more than anything else, Biden needs to look and sound alert, quick on his feet, on top of the details, and strong.
Though Trump also stumbles, makes multiple factual errors, and gets names wrong, that’s long been baked into his personality. What’s another 34 untruths or 34 stumbles next to his 34 felonies? None of it sticks. The age-related stumble is not Trump’s worry. He has to watch out for another trap: The Chaos Clip.
The Chaos Clip: Trump is the great conductor of political chaos, culminating in the Jan. 6 attack on the US Capitol. Even fellow Republicans thought that was the end of Trump. It wasn’t. Trump has not only recovered, he’s transformed the Jan. 6 mob into heroes and hostages, a stunning rebranding exercise and one that takes center stage at his rallies. Still, if Trump coughs up a clip about not respecting the election results, lashes out at the justice system to repudiate his 34 felony charges, says he will pull out of NATO, or threatens to drop a nuke on Iran or otherwise destabilize the world order, it could undermine his campaign.
Too much chaos fueled by his bottomless pool of rage and resentment would be deeply damaging. Biden will try to bait him here, and I wonder if he gets so bold as to call Trump a “felon” to his face. Still, Trump loves the stage, doesn’t rely on notes, and if he looks strong, overpowering, and avoids the chaos, it is all upside for him.
The Killer Clip: From Ronald Regan’s famed 1980 zinger, “There you go again” aimed at Jimmy Carter – which 44 years ago seemed nasty and today would barely register – to the 1988 uppercut Lloyd Bentsen landed in the vice presidential debate, telling Dan Quayle “Senator, You are no Jack Kennedy,” this is the sought-after, white whale of political debates. Biden came close in the last debate with his “Will you shut up man,” showing he could punch off the ropes. He will need that again – look for it on Trump’s convictions, abortion, and foreign policy. But no one delivers nastier or more quotable quips than Trump. If he senses Biden is stumbling, he could deliver a killer clip from which Biden might not recover.
So as they hunt for the clip of the night – and as their staff prep as much for the post-debate social media moments as the debate itself – Biden needs to overcome age, Trump needs to contain rage, and both need to avoid a big gaffe on stage.
Can’t wait for 9 p.m. EDT.
We have lots of coverage of the debate for you. Ian Bremmer will be watching, and we will get a video of his insights into a Quick Take video tonight right after the debate, so check our site and social platforms for that. On Friday at 7 a.m., look for GZERO Daily, which will be filled with analysis. At 10 a.m. EDT Friday, I’ll be hosting a live X space with our team and special guests to go over the hits, misses, and the impact of the debate. Join in and it will get spicy.
John Lieber will also have his take on what’s next in our US election video series on Friday. And, oh yes, please play along with our debate bingo, which is a great way to engage with things tonight.
Trump's VP pick: The short list
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics this month. Who Trump picks as his VP.
The big story in US politics this month is going to be the debates which are going to be one of the key moments of the campaign, given the enormous downside risk they present for President Biden due to his age. But the other big event of the summer, other than the conventions, is going to be who Trump picks for his vice presidential candidate. And there's been a number of names floated by the campaign, some more conventional than others. And they each have their own set of strengths.
Some of the more surprising names would be JD Vance, who Trump's family is allegedly pushing for him to pick. Vance is a senator from Ohio and one of the leading lights in the populous Republican movement. Never mind his Yale and venture capital background, he is somebody that claims he's out there fighting for the working class, which could help Trump.
Tim Scott, an African-American senator from South Carolina would help bring diversity to the ticket. Perhaps match up well against Kamala Harris in the debates, and is a pretty telegenic defender of Trump who has been outspoken in his praise for the former president since he was defeated in the primary.
Another potential candidate is Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota, a smaller state. But he's a rich man, a successful business guy who's been a very effective Trump surrogate. And he's emerged as a potential pick in the last few months.
You also have a handful of other senators, like Marco Rubio from Florida, who would put a Hispanic on the ticket, or Tom Cotton, who's been a harsh Trump critic in the past, but would bring a lot of national security credibility to President Trump. There's a couple of House members that are on the short list, unclear if they have the experience or TV presence to be what Trump is looking for.
Typically candidates will choose a vice president based on some political liability that they think they have, whether it's the balance of the ticket in terms of age or gender or racial identity or maybe it's a regional thing. Mike Pence was chosen because he was strong with evangelical voters and Trump was not. It isn't exactly clear what Trump's going for with his VP pick. Probably it's somebody who he thinks is loyal to him, somebody that can defend him well on TV, and probably someone that's not going to show him up too much as an actual vice president. Really any one of the names on this list could achieve those goals, now but what they probably won't do is give Trump a big boost in this campaign, which is going to be about the two headliners, Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
Independent Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced 'No Spoiler' pledge for the upcoming elections at a campaign stop in Brooklyn, NY on May 1, 2024.
Will RFK Jr. make the debate?
Last week, President Joe Biden and Donald Trump agreed to debate on CNN on June 27 and on ABC News on Sept 10. Under the rules laid out by the networks, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could qualify to participate.
History lesson: Only two independent candidates have ever qualified for a general election debate. The last time was Ross Perot in 1992, when he faced off against Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush and saw a boost in thepolls from the spectacle.
Kennedy’s about halfway to qualifying. The rules saycandidates must attract 15% support in four national polls and have ballot access in enough states to theoretically win 270 electoral votes – the minimum to capture the Electoral College.
Kennedy has met the polling requirements in two polls and is close on multiple others. But the ballot requirement could be more complicated. Kennedy is officially on the ballot in five states worth 35 electoral votes. Kennedy’scampaign claims that it has submitted enough signatures to make it in 10 other states worth 166 electoral votes, pending approval by state election officials. He has until June 20 to make up the difference.
Why it matters: Kennedy appearing beside Trump and Biden would further legitimize his campaign. It would also complicate Biden and Trump’s debate strategy – which could prove particularly difficult for Biden, who has stumbled during harder-to-rehearse speaking endeavors in recent months.U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden participate in their first 2020 presidential campaign debate held on the campus of the Cleveland Clinic at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, U.S., September 29, 2020.
Trump vs. Biden: Let’s get ready to rumble
It’s on. We don't mean the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson boxing “match” but an even higher profile smackdown that might not be a whole lot more substantive: President Joe Biden and Donald Trump have agreed to two head-to-head presidential debates.
The first will be hosted by CNN on June 27 – making it the earliest presidential debate in modern history. The second will be run by ABC on Sept. 10. Neither will have a live audience.
Biden had earlier kiboshed any debates hosted by the nonpartisan debate commission, which has run them since the 1980s. Those live-audience faceoffs typically take place in September, after early voting begins.
Why are they doing this? Biden, trailing Trump in the polls, hopes to make his famously erratic opponent sweat, says Clayton Allen, a US expert at Eurasia Group. “He’s betting that Trump, stressed by the criminal trial and maybe facing a guilty verdict, will implode, or look bad in the spotlight.”
Trump, meanwhile, is hoping that in the heat of debate, Biden will have one (or more) of those moments where he looks old, unsteady, or confused. In short, says Allen, he’s betting on “Biden falling asleep.”
One guy might look crazy, the other might look senile – American democracy is truly a city on a hill!