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Putin using Moscow attack as excuse to intensify war on Ukraine
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
A Quick Take to kick off your week. Lots we could be talking about. But I want to go to Russia, where we have had a major terrorist attack with over 130 Russian citizens gunned down, killed by terrorists.
The United States has warned the Russians both publicly so that American citizens would know about the concern, but also with actionable intelligence privately over the past couple of weeks that ISIS was planning an attack on an area with major crowds in Moscow. Putin publicly dismissing that, kind of wish he hadn't, but that we are where we are. And Putin has now spoken to the nation. There have been a number of gunmen that have been rounded up and arrested four, that we know of, Tajik citizens and Putin did not mention that ISIS has taken credit for this terrorist attack, nor that they then released videos of some of the attackers as they were engaging in terrorism inside the rock concert venue.
Instead, he spoke implausibly about links to Ukraine that don't actually exist. Why would ISIS-K do this? I mean, the main reason is because one of their two home bases, Syria and Iraq, in Syria, destroyed by Bashar al-Assad with the direct help from Putin and the Russian military. Nobody else doing that with Assad on the ground. And there have been many terrorist attempts against Russians as a consequence in that regard, but none with spectacular success for them like we've just witnessed.
Why wouldn't Ukraine be responsible? Well, first of all, because they haven't actually been targeting civilians at all. In fact, the one time that they engaged in terrorism and it was terrorism was an attempt to kill an individual, high level Russian extremist, but who was not a political figure. He had been informally an inspiration to the Kremlin and been calling for pogroms against Ukraine, which he said shouldn't exist as a nation. And they didn't get him. Instead, they got his daughter and the United States and other NATO allies were quite angry about the fact that Ukrainians were engaged in that. But aside from that, it's been attacks on critical infrastructure. That's another thing. And certainly, if you want to talk about the Nord Stream pipeline, highly unlikely the Russians would have blown up their pipeline. Much more likely the Ukrainians either by themselves with support would have been responsible for that. The investigations have been inconclusive. That strikes me as not enormously plausible.
Also, Ukraine has been hitting a lot of refineries, Russian refineries, and that's a pretty big deal. About 5% of Russian exports are now offline. Oil exports. That could go up a lot. It could be more than half easily in coming weeks to months of over 3 million barrels a day that the Russians export. If Ukraine starts hitting Black Sea facilities, which they're certainly capable of doing. So global economic impact of this war continues to be very significant. Ability and willingness of the Ukrainians to hit targets inside Russia as well as occupied Crimea, Ukrainian territory, but the Russians annexed it back in 2014 illegally, all of that is certainly par for the course. But the idea that the Ukrainians would be involved in large scale terrorism or support it is not only implausible on the basis of the evidence, but also implausible in terms of what they've been doing historically. But of course, that doesn't matter to Putin, who now intends to use this to drive more military efforts against Ukraine, more civilian casualties.
And that's what we saw in the initial 48 hours after the attack. Unprecedented levels of missiles being sent against the capital, Kyiv, with lots of civilian targets as well as west Ukraine, Lviv in particular. We are seeing that Putin is indifferent to civilian deaths, those of the Ukrainians and, of course, those of his own people. And we probably do now see a much more mobilization from Russia, especially now that the election, the so-called election, is over and more Russian weapons that are going to be used against the Ukrainian people.
The most concerning piece of all of this, I mean, leaving aside the fact that Russia now has a second front they need to fight on, they have, you know, a concern with radical Islamic terrorism that has grown in terms of the capabilities and whether or not Putin says he's going to fight it, he's going to need to fight it. And that's going to take away scarce resources for him and it's going to put more Russian civilians at risk. But the bigger concern, the global concern, of course, is the potential for this war to expand. And there are a couple of incidents that should raise those warning bells. First, the fact that just over this weekend, of all of the missiles that were launched by Russia against Ukraine, one went through Polish airspace for less than a minute, something like 40 seconds, but nonetheless, a Russian missile that actually went through the airspace of a NATO ally. Clearly wasn't targeting that NATO ally.
But Polish and other NATO allied aircraft scrambled. And that is not something we have seen so far since the war started a couple of years ago. Also, the fact that there were a missile explosion targeting Odessa just a couple of weeks ago when President Zelensky was there, in addition to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. And it was literally only a few hundred yards away that this missile exploded while those two men, those two leaders were on the ground and exposed very clearly. I don't believe that Mitsotakis was targeted, but the fact that he could have been hit as an NATO leader would have also put us in unprecedented danger in terms of the geopolitical order.
Certainly since anything we'd seen since 1962, the Cuban Missile Crisis. What's behind that? Well, I mean, I think the most likely thing behind is that Putin doesn't have complete and operational control over everything that's going on on the ground. His military is badly trained and organized. And this was probably a mistake. Woops. But, you know, the fact is that when you have lots of people go into Ukraine and borders, look, you know, they look very defined on a map, but they're very porous in real life. And the potential for mistakes to lead to extraordinary escalation, pretty high. And certainly the willingness to allow for those mistakes to be made is higher than you would like it to be. The checks and balances there don't seem to be all that concerning for the Kremlin or for Vladimir Putin. Of course, a worse explanation would be that Putin actually is prepared to take those risks to brush NATO back. And that, of course, would lead to much more likelihood that we would have escalation that would bring a NATO ally into the war, something that clearly nobody out there wants to see.
But it's worth talking about in the context of all of this, it's much more likely the Ukrainians are now going to get their 60 billion of support. That would be the largest piece of military support so far from the United States, approved likely in mid to late April. They're seeing more ammunition, more economic, more military support from the Europeans, even though the lion share of the military support is from the US and the war continues to be dangerous, continues to be unstable and continues to be no end in sight.
So that's where we are after some very unfortunate headlines and events over the last couple of days. And I'll talk to you all real soon.
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Greece's PM on NATO, Navalny, and the wake-up call to Europe
Greece, the world’s oldest democracy, is undergoing a major digital, economic, and social transformation era. Ian Bremmer sat down with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference to discuss global security, the threat of AI in elections, and Greece’s landmark ruling allowing same-sex couples to marry.
With the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looming large, Mitsotakis stressed the importance of continuing to send financial and military aid to Kyiv and for Europe to increase its own defense spending. NATO allies have committed to spending at least 2% of their GDP on defense, but only 18 of the 31 NATO countries currently meet this goal. Mitsotakis says it’s high time for all NATO countries to step up.“We do our part as Greece, we spend more than 3% of our GDP on defense,” Kyriakos emphasized, “Just taking a look at what's happening in Ukraine, we cannot afford the same risks.”
Kyriakos also explains why it was important for Greece to participate in the unveiling of a major new tech accord aimed at combating AI-generated election misinformation at the conference and why his center-right government pushed hard to pass the recent landmark LGBTQ+ rights bill granting marital and adoption rights to same-sex couples.Watch full episode here: Can Ukraine win the war?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
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How to protect elections in the age of AI
Half of the world’s population will have the chance to head to the polls this year in dozens of critical elections worldwide. These votes, which will shape policy and democracy for years to come, come amid light-speed development in artificial intelligence. As Eurasia Group noted in its 2024 Top Risk entitled “Ungoverned AI,” generative AI could be used by domestic and foreign actors – we’re looking at you, Russia – to impact campaigns and undermine trust in democracy.
To meet the moment, GZERO Media, on the ground at the 2024 Munich Security Conference, held a Global Stage discussion on Feb. 17 entitled “Protecting Elections in the Age of AI.” We spoke with Brad Smith, vice chair and president of Microsoft; Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media; Fiona Hill, senior fellow for the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings; Eva Maydell, an EU parliamentarian and a lead negotiator of the EU Chips Act and Artificial Intelligence Act; Kersti Kaljulaid, the former president of Estonia; with European correspondent Maria Tadeo moderating. The program also featured interviews with Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Greece’s prime minister, and Benedikt Franke, CEO and vice-chair of the Munich Security Conference. These thought leaders and experts discussed the implications of the rapid rise of AI amid this historic election year.
The group started by delving into what Bremmer has referred to as the “Voldemort” of years surrounding elections, to look at how election interference and disinformation have evolved since 2016.
“This is the year that people have been very concerned about, but have kind of hoped that they could push off. It's not just because there are elections all over the world and trust in institutions is deteriorating, it's also because the most powerful country in the world, and it's not becoming less powerful, is also one of the most politically dysfunctional,” says Bremmer, referring to the US.
The 2024 US presidential election “is maximally distrust-laden,” says Bremmer, adding that it’s “really hard to have a free and fair election in the US that all of its population” believes is legitimate.
And the worry is that AI could complicate the landscape even further.
Hill agreed that there’s cause for concern but underscored that people should not “panic” to a point where they’re “paralyzed” and “not taking action.”
“Panic is not an option given the stakes,” says Hill, adding, “There are negative aspects of all of this, but there's also the kind of question that we have to grapple with is how when legitimate competitors or opposition movements that otherwise beleaguered decide to use AI tools, that then also has an impact.”
There’s no doubt that AI can be used for nefarious purposes. Deepfakes can fool even the most discerning eye. Disinformation has already been rampant across the internet in recent election cycles and helped sow major divisions in many countries well before AI tools — far more sophisticated than your average meme — were widely available.
“With new tools and products that use generative AI, including from a company like ours, somebody can create a very realistic video, audio, or image. Just think about the different ways it can be used. Somebody can use it and they can make a video of themself, and they can make clear in the video that this is AI generated. That is one way a political candidate, even one who is in prison can speak,” says Smith, alluding to ex-Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s recent use of AI from behind bars.
Along these lines, there are many serious, valid concerns about the impact AI can have on elections and democracy more generally — particularly at a time when people are exhibiting rising levels of distrust in key institutions.
“It's very important to acknowledge a lot of the important developments that AI and emerging tech can bring to support our economic development,” says Maydell, adding, “but in the same time, especially this year, we need to be very sober about some of those threats that are in a way threatening the very fabric of our democratic societies.
As Maydell noted, this evolving new technology can be harnessed for good and bad. Can AI be used as a tool to protect candidates and the integrity of the electoral process?
A number of major tech companies, including Microsoft, signed an accord at the Munich Security Conference on Friday to help thwart and combat AI-related election interference.
“It's all about trying to put ourselves in a position, not to solve this problem completely, I don't think that's possible, but to manage this new reality in a way that will make a difference,” says Smith. The Microsoft president says the accord brings the tech sector together to preserve the authenticity of content, including by working to detect deepfakes and providing candidates with a mechanism to report any that are created about them.
“We'll work together to promote transparency and public education. This clearly is going to require a lot of work with civil society, with others around the world to help the public be ready,” says Smith.
But is enough being done?
“It's good that both politicians and the companies and society as a whole now has a better understanding where this is all leading us and we are collectively taking actions,” says Kaljulaid, but this is just a “first step” and “next steps need to follow.”
A balance will need to be found between legislating the challenges presented by AI and giving tech companies space to collaborate, innovate and address problems on their own.
“Democracy is always in jeopardy. Every generation has to answer the call to defend it,” says Smith, adding, “Now it's our turn. It's our turn as a generation of people to say that technology always changes, but democracy is a value that we hold timeless. So let's do what it takes to defend it, to preserve and promote it.”
The livestream was part of the Global Stage series, produced by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft. These discussions convene heads of state, business leaders, and technology experts from around the world for critical debate about the geopolitical and technology trends shaping our world.
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Why Greek PM Mitsotakis pushed for same-sex marriage despite strong opposition
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer asked Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis for his reaction to Greece becoming the first Orthodox Christian country to legalize same-sex civil marriage. Greece’s parliament voted 176-76 to approve the legislation, which also legalizes adoption for same-sex families, despite opposition from the influential Greek Orthodox Church and from within Mitsotakis’ own center-right New Democracy party.
“I knew from the beginning that there are a lot of people within my party that did not agree with this,” Mitsotakis tells Bremmer, “But at the end of the day, human rights is about protecting smaller groups. Otherwise, you have the tyranny of the majority.”
Marriage legalization is a watershed moment for Greece’s LGBTQ+ community, which has been fighting for equal rights and recognition for decades. While opinion polls suggest that most Greeks support the new reform by a narrow margin, the conservative Orthodox Church is still a powerful force in Greek society. That, Mitsotakis explained, is why consensus-building was crucial for passing legislation.
“We worked very hard to explain to people what we’re doing, and we fully respected those who disagreed,” Mitsotakis said, “People understand it’s something that helps a few people and doesn’t threaten anyone, that’s why it’s so important.”
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
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Former Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis speaks to supporters outside his New Democracy party's headquarters in Athens.
Mitsotakis wins big in Greece
The ruling center-right New Democracy Party of PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis is projected to win Sunday's second-round Greek election with 40.5% of the vote. That gives Mitsotakis an outright majority of 158 seats in the 300-member parliament, enough to form a government.
The landslide victory is obviously great news for Mitsotakis, who just months ago looked set to lose the top job following first a wire-tapping scandal and then a deadly train crash that many Greeks blamed on poor maintenance. What's more, with his comfortable majority, in his second term the PM will be able to pass significant reforms to the country's famously bloated and outdated public sector.
It's also a boon for the Greek economy, which is one step away from regaining its investment-grade credit rating 12 years after losing it and ultimately being downgraded to junk status over the debt crisis. Now might be a good time to park your disposable cash in Greece.
But the result is pretty bad news if you're on the left side of the political spectrum. The hard-left Syriza Party — which was in power for several years before Mitsotakis and saved Greece from bankruptcy and a eurozone exit — got walloped at the ballot box, while two far-right parties unexpectedly surpassed the 3% of the vote threshold to enter parliament.
"New Democracy’s victory follows the similar experience of other southern EU member states, which are returning to the right having tacked left after the eurozone's debt crisis," tweeted Mij Rahman, Eurasia Group's top Europe expert. "Italy is a case in point.” Expect Spain to continue the trend after the July 23 snap election.
Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis addresses supporters during a pre-election rally by the island of Salamina.
Where We’re Voting: Greece, Guatemala, Sierra Leone
Got any weekend plans? You should be headed to the polls if you live in Greece, Guatemala, or Sierra Leone.
Greece. About a month ago, the ruling center-right New Democracy Party of Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis swept the parliamentary election with a better-than-expected 40+% of the vote. But since it fell just a few seats short of a parliamentary majority, Mitsotakis called a second round, where different rules make it easier for the top finisher to form a government.
New Democracy will probably win a comfortable majority — a remarkable turnaround for the Greek government just months after the twin crises of a wiretapping scandal and a deadly train crash. Don't expect many voters to sour on Mitsotakis even after the recent shipwreck tragedy because most Greeks appreciate his "tough but fair" stance on migrants.
Guatemala. Most Guatemalans are not feeling upbeat about the strength of their democracy. Turnout for the first-round presidential election in the Central American country will probably be very low since many people don't see the point in showing up for a vote pre-rigged by the courts that disqualified the three main opposition candidates.
There are three main contenders to replace term-limited President Alejandro Giammattei: former first lady Sandra Torres, a centrist; Edmond Mulet, a center-right former diplomat; and Zury Ríos, the far-right daughter of former military dictator Efraín Ríos Montt. The three are neck-and-neck in the polls, with Mulet favored to beat Torres in the runoff in a nation whose flawed democracy means many Guatemalans will continue trying to migrate to the US.
Sierra Leone. If you're Sierra Leonean, you don't take elections for granted. After all, this is only the sixth vote since the country ended a bloody civil war 21 years ago. But that doesn't mean things will go smoothly: British actor Idris Elba, whose dad is from Sierra Leone, tweeted a video calling for peace at the polling stations.
The vote will be all about the economy, stupid. Sierra Leoneans are being crushed by sky-high inflation, which in Aug. 2022 triggered social unrest in the capital, Freetown. Still, President Julius Maada Bio will likely win a second and final term against opposition leader Samura Kamara, who Bio already beat (lol) in 2018.Pakistani Hassan Ali shows a photo of his brother who died in a shipwreck off the Greek coast.
Who’s responsible for the Greek migrant tragedy?
Nine alleged people smugglers have been arrested in Greece after hundreds of migrants drowned last week in one of the worst migrant tragedies in Europe in over a decade. The men, all Egyptian nationals, appeared in court Tuesday, while a handful of others were reportedly also arrested in Pakistan, where most of the victims came from.
So far, 81 bodies have been found, and 104 people have been rescued, but it is thought that roughly 750 were on board the rickety fishing boat when it capsized on June 14, having departed Libya bound for Italy.
But there is still much that remains unclear about the series of events. And the Greek Coast Guard, for its part, has come under fire for continuously changing its story, first saying that it was rebuffed when it tried to help the boat and then claiming that there weren’t signs the vessel was in distress for some time. (New reporting, however, suggests that the boat was stuck for seven hours before it sank.)
Right-leaning Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis blamed the smugglers, stopping short of criticizing the Coast Guard. Mitsotakis, for his part, has called his approach to migration “tough but fair,” but he stands accused of overseeing a policy of boat “pushbacks” deemed illegal by international law.
Still, why change if this has been working for him? Mitsotakis’ conservative New Democracy Party reaped 40% of the vote in last month’s general election (second place reaped 20%) and is hoping for an even bigger win when Greeks head to the polls this Sunday for a second round. We’ll be watching to see whether Mitsotakis clinches a parliamentary majority.
Gang members wait to be taken to their cell after 2000 gang members were transferred to the Terrorism Confinement Center, in Tecoluca, El Salvador. Handout distributed March 15, 2023.
What We’re Watching: El Salvador’s lingering state of emergency, Northern Ireland on alert, Alibaba’s breakup, Greek election matters
El Salvador’s state of emergency one year later
This week marks one year since El Salvador’s bullish millennial president, Nayib Bukele, introduced a state of emergency, enabling his government to deal with the scourge of gang violence that has long made his country one of the world’s most dangerous.
Quick recap: To crack down on the country’s 70,000 gang members, Bukele’s government denied alleged criminals the right to know why they were detained and access to legal counsel. The arrest blitz has seen nearly 2% of the adult population locked up.
Despite these draconian measures and Bukele’s efforts to circumvent a one-term limit, he enjoys a staggering 91% approval rating.
Bukele has also sought to distinguish himself as an anti-corruption warrior, which resonates with an electorate disillusioned by years of corrupt politicians (Bukele’s three predecessors have all been charged with corruption. One is in prison; two are on the run.)
Externally, relations with the Biden administration have been icy under Bukele, with San Salvador refusing to back a US-sponsored UN resolution condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine.
What matters most to Salvadorans is the dropping crime rate, which is why Bukele will likely cruise to reelection next year.
Fears of domestic terror attack in Northern Ireland
Britain's MI5 intelligence agency has raised the domestic terror threat in Northern Ireland from “substantial” to “severe” amid fears of an imminent attack in the British-run region. This follows a series of attacks by Irish nationalist groups, mainly against police, in Northern Ireland in recent months.
The New Irish Republican Army, a paramilitary group with roots in the original militant group of the same name, has taken responsibility for a series of crimes against law enforcement and journalists.
For context, the IRA dominant in the 20th century disbanded with the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998 that put an end to decades of violence between pro-British unionists wanting to stay part of the UK, and Irish nationalists calling for the unification of Northern Ireland with Ireland.
This warning comes as US President Joe Biden is preparing to travel to Belfast next month to mark the 25th anniversary of the peace deal, which put an end to the conflict, known as the Troubles.
Indeed, tensions have risen since Brexit, which revived age-old questions about the status of Northern Ireland’s borders. The threat level in Britain, meanwhile, remains “substantial,” meaning that an attack is still a strong possibility, according to authorities.
Alibaba breaks up … itself
Now we know the real reason Alibaba founder Jack Ma resurfaced in China this week. On Tuesday, the Chinese e-commerce giant announced it would spin off its different businesses into six units with separate CEOs under a single holding company. Each unit will be allowed to seek outside capital or go public independently.
Alibaba claims that the Chinese government did not order the restructuring, but it's an open secret that Xi Jinping thought the company had become too rich and powerful. The restructuring plan was unveiled the day after Ma made his first public appearance in the country since late 2020 to boost confidence in the tech company and within the broader sector. (His public criticism of regulators set off a broader crackdown against China's tech sector that hit Alibaba hard.)
Politics aside, Alibaba is just following in the footsteps of its main rivals, Tencent and JD.com, which showed earlier they got the memo from Xi: Break yourself up before you become too big to fail, or it'll be worse if we have to do it for you. The question is, would this ever happen in the US to curb the power of Big Tech?
Greek PM calls spring election
PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis, whose popularity has dipped in the wake of a train disaster last month that killed 57, has called for a general election on May 21. The train crash sparked national protests and strikes as angry Greeks pointed blame at the government for poor transport-sector investment and regulation.
In this election, Greece is transitioning to a proportional representation system, making it harder for any party to enjoy an outright win.
Mitsotakis, whose term was set to end in July, has been dogged by protests and allegations of wiretapping of political opponents by security forces. His reputational dent mixed with his New Democracy Party’s declining numbers – though they remain slightly ahead of the opposition Syriza Party – raise the likelihood of Greece soon being ruled by a coalition.
Syriza, meanwhile, says that even if it wins an outright majority, it will form a "government of cooperation." But the left-wingers have ruled out the possibility of working in a coalition with Mitsotakis’s conservatives.