VIDEOSGZERO World with Ian BremmerQuick TakePUPPET REGIMEIan ExplainsGZERO ReportsAsk IanGlobal Stage
Site Navigation
Search
Human content,
AI powered search.
Latest Stories
Start your day right!
Get latest updates and insights delivered to your inbox.
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
A Quick Take to kick off your week. Lots we could be talking about. But I want to go to Russia, where we have had a major terrorist attack with over 130 Russian citizens gunned down, killed by terrorists.
The United States has warned the Russians both publicly so that American citizens would know about the concern, but also with actionable intelligence privately over the past couple of weeks that ISIS was planning an attack on an area with major crowds in Moscow. Putin publicly dismissing that, kind of wish he hadn't, but that we are where we are. And Putin has now spoken to the nation. There have been a number of gunmen that have been rounded up and arrested four, that we know of, Tajik citizens and Putin did not mention that ISIS has taken credit for this terrorist attack, nor that they then released videos of some of the attackers as they were engaging in terrorism inside the rock concert venue.
Instead, he spoke implausibly about links to Ukraine that don't actually exist. Why would ISIS-K do this? I mean, the main reason is because one of their two home bases, Syria and Iraq, in Syria, destroyed by Bashar al-Assad with the direct help from Putin and the Russian military. Nobody else doing that with Assad on the ground. And there have been many terrorist attempts against Russians as a consequence in that regard, but none with spectacular success for them like we've just witnessed.
Why wouldn't Ukraine be responsible? Well, first of all, because they haven't actually been targeting civilians at all. In fact, the one time that they engaged in terrorism and it was terrorism was an attempt to kill an individual, high level Russian extremist, but who was not a political figure. He had been informally an inspiration to the Kremlin and been calling for pogroms against Ukraine, which he said shouldn't exist as a nation. And they didn't get him. Instead, they got his daughter and the United States and other NATO allies were quite angry about the fact that Ukrainians were engaged in that. But aside from that, it's been attacks on critical infrastructure. That's another thing. And certainly, if you want to talk about the Nord Stream pipeline, highly unlikely the Russians would have blown up their pipeline. Much more likely the Ukrainians either by themselves with support would have been responsible for that. The investigations have been inconclusive. That strikes me as not enormously plausible.
Also, Ukraine has been hitting a lot of refineries, Russian refineries, and that's a pretty big deal. About 5% of Russian exports are now offline. Oil exports. That could go up a lot. It could be more than half easily in coming weeks to months of over 3 million barrels a day that the Russians export. If Ukraine starts hitting Black Sea facilities, which they're certainly capable of doing. So global economic impact of this war continues to be very significant. Ability and willingness of the Ukrainians to hit targets inside Russia as well as occupied Crimea, Ukrainian territory, but the Russians annexed it back in 2014 illegally, all of that is certainly par for the course. But the idea that the Ukrainians would be involved in large scale terrorism or support it is not only implausible on the basis of the evidence, but also implausible in terms of what they've been doing historically. But of course, that doesn't matter to Putin, who now intends to use this to drive more military efforts against Ukraine, more civilian casualties.
And that's what we saw in the initial 48 hours after the attack. Unprecedented levels of missiles being sent against the capital, Kyiv, with lots of civilian targets as well as west Ukraine, Lviv in particular. We are seeing that Putin is indifferent to civilian deaths, those of the Ukrainians and, of course, those of his own people. And we probably do now see a much more mobilization from Russia, especially now that the election, the so-called election, is over and more Russian weapons that are going to be used against the Ukrainian people.
The most concerning piece of all of this, I mean, leaving aside the fact that Russia now has a second front they need to fight on, they have, you know, a concern with radical Islamic terrorism that has grown in terms of the capabilities and whether or not Putin says he's going to fight it, he's going to need to fight it. And that's going to take away scarce resources for him and it's going to put more Russian civilians at risk. But the bigger concern, the global concern, of course, is the potential for this war to expand. And there are a couple of incidents that should raise those warning bells. First, the fact that just over this weekend, of all of the missiles that were launched by Russia against Ukraine, one went through Polish airspace for less than a minute, something like 40 seconds, but nonetheless, a Russian missile that actually went through the airspace of a NATO ally. Clearly wasn't targeting that NATO ally.
But Polish and other NATO allied aircraft scrambled. And that is not something we have seen so far since the war started a couple of years ago. Also, the fact that there were a missile explosion targeting Odessa just a couple of weeks ago when President Zelensky was there, in addition to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. And it was literally only a few hundred yards away that this missile exploded while those two men, those two leaders were on the ground and exposed very clearly. I don't believe that Mitsotakis was targeted, but the fact that he could have been hit as an NATO leader would have also put us in unprecedented danger in terms of the geopolitical order.
Certainly since anything we'd seen since 1962, the Cuban Missile Crisis. What's behind that? Well, I mean, I think the most likely thing behind is that Putin doesn't have complete and operational control over everything that's going on on the ground. His military is badly trained and organized. And this was probably a mistake. Woops. But, you know, the fact is that when you have lots of people go into Ukraine and borders, look, you know, they look very defined on a map, but they're very porous in real life. And the potential for mistakes to lead to extraordinary escalation, pretty high. And certainly the willingness to allow for those mistakes to be made is higher than you would like it to be. The checks and balances there don't seem to be all that concerning for the Kremlin or for Vladimir Putin. Of course, a worse explanation would be that Putin actually is prepared to take those risks to brush NATO back. And that, of course, would lead to much more likelihood that we would have escalation that would bring a NATO ally into the war, something that clearly nobody out there wants to see.
But it's worth talking about in the context of all of this, it's much more likely the Ukrainians are now going to get their 60 billion of support. That would be the largest piece of military support so far from the United States, approved likely in mid to late April. They're seeing more ammunition, more economic, more military support from the Europeans, even though the lion share of the military support is from the US and the war continues to be dangerous, continues to be unstable and continues to be no end in sight.
So that's where we are after some very unfortunate headlines and events over the last couple of days. And I'll talk to you all real soon.
Keep reading...Show less
More from Quick Take
Quick Take
Dec 15, 2025
Trump’s new national security strategy targets Europe
December 08, 2025
Trump, Russia, and a deal Ukraine can’t accept
December 02, 2025
Europe divided as US pushes Ukraine-Russia peace deal
November 24, 2025
Trump escalates sanctions against Russia
November 10, 2025
Is Abu Dhabi becoming the global capital of AI development?
November 02, 2025
What the Trump-Xi meeting means for US-China relations
October 30, 2025
Trump’s East Wing demolition, Binance pardon, and tariffs on Canada
October 27, 2025
Trump brokers peace: Hostages freed and guns fall silent in Gaza
October 13, 2025
Trump's role in brokering Israel-Hamas deal
October 09, 2025
America’s short-term wins vs. long-term risks
October 06, 2025
Israel is facing real consequences over Gaza annexation plans
September 29, 2025
Is Israel risking global isolation over Gaza?
September 22, 2025
Charlie Kirk's assassination will make things worse in the US
September 15, 2025
Russia-Ukraine war escalation
September 08, 2025
China’s push for a new world order
September 02, 2025
Is the US preparing to strike Venezuela?
August 27, 2025
Is American capitalism still capitalism?
August 25, 2025
Zelensky, Trump, and NATO: A united front on Ukraine?
August 18, 2025
Trump and Putin to meet in Alaska to discuss Ukraine
August 11, 2025
US government rescinds West Point role for former cyber director
August 04, 2025
US-EU trade deal marks a win for Trump
July 28, 2025
The US, China, and the critical minerals question
July 21, 2025
Epstein conspiracies divide Trump's MAGA base
July 14, 2025
US-Brazil relations in crisis
July 10, 2025
Elon Musk vows to start a new political party
July 07, 2025
What Zohran Mamdani’s win really signals for US politics
June 30, 2025
Iran's retaliation shows strategic weakness
June 23, 2025
US enters war with Iran: What comes next?
June 22, 2025
Iran looks to negotiate ceasefire
June 16, 2025
Elon vs. Trump: Billionaire fallout goes public
June 06, 2025
Elon Musk steps down from Trump administration
May 29, 2025
Trump's weekend of geopolitical success
May 12, 2025
Can Trump and Carney reset US-Canada relations?
May 07, 2025
Trump’s ‘less is more’ message is un-American
May 05, 2025
Ian Bremmer on Trump's first 100 days
April 28, 2025
Trump’s America: A kleptocracy but not a police state
April 23, 2025
Inside the Harvard-Trump showdown
April 21, 2025
Can the US win by undoing globalization?
April 14, 2025
Who benefits from Trump's tariff wall?
April 07, 2025
Trump's tariffs & the end of globalization
April 03, 2025
Leaked Signal chat shows Trump team's mindset
March 26, 2025
What Trump team's war plans leak revealed
March 25, 2025
Is Europe in trouble as the US pulls away?
March 24, 2025
Putin-Trump Ukraine call is a small win for both sides
March 18, 2025
What will Trump offer Putin in Ukraine ceasefire talks?
March 17, 2025
Ukraine ceasefire deal now awaits Putin's response
March 11, 2025
Can Europe broker a Ukraine ceasefire?
March 03, 2025
What Trump-Zelensky fallout means for Ukraine war
March 01, 2025
Why the US-Ukraine minerals deal changed
February 26, 2025
Germany's close election limits its ability to lead Europe
February 24, 2025
Ukraine hopes for Europe's help as US negotiates with Russia
February 18, 2025
JD Vance stuns Munich conference with critique on European democracy
February 14, 2025
Trump-Putin chat over Ukraine "deeply" worries Europe
February 13, 2025
What is Trump's Gaza playbook?
February 10, 2025
Why cutting USAID will hurt American foreign policy
February 05, 2025
Why is Trump starting a trade war with Canada?
February 02, 2025
How Trump's assertive foreign policy impacts international relations
January 27, 2025
Trump's Davos address sets up big shifts in US strategy
January 24, 2025
From Davos: How global leaders are grappling with Trump’s return
January 20, 2025
Ian Bremmer on the forces behind the geopolitical recession
January 17, 2025
What Greenlanders might want from a deal with Trump
January 13, 2025
New Year's Day terror attacks highlight America's divisions
January 03, 2025
GZERO Series
GZERO Daily: our free newsletter about global politics
Keep up with what’s going on around the world - and why it matters.














































































