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How to protect elections in the age of AI
Half of the world’s population will have the chance to head to the polls this year in dozens of critical elections worldwide. These votes, which will shape policy and democracy for years to come, come amid light-speed development in artificial intelligence. As Eurasia Group noted in its 2024 Top Risk entitled “Ungoverned AI,” generative AI could be used by domestic and foreign actors – we’re looking at you, Russia – to impact campaigns and undermine trust in democracy.
To meet the moment, GZERO Media, on the ground at the 2024 Munich Security Conference, held a Global Stage discussion on Feb. 17 entitled “Protecting Elections in the Age of AI.” We spoke with Brad Smith, vice chair and president of Microsoft; Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media; Fiona Hill, senior fellow for the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings; Eva Maydell, an EU parliamentarian and a lead negotiator of the EU Chips Act and Artificial Intelligence Act; Kersti Kaljulaid, the former president of Estonia; with European correspondent Maria Tadeo moderating. The program also featured interviews with Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Greece’s prime minister, and Benedikt Franke, CEO and vice-chair of the Munich Security Conference. These thought leaders and experts discussed the implications of the rapid rise of AI amid this historic election year.
The group started by delving into what Bremmer has referred to as the “Voldemort” of years surrounding elections, to look at how election interference and disinformation have evolved since 2016.
“This is the year that people have been very concerned about, but have kind of hoped that they could push off. It's not just because there are elections all over the world and trust in institutions is deteriorating, it's also because the most powerful country in the world, and it's not becoming less powerful, is also one of the most politically dysfunctional,” says Bremmer, referring to the US.
The 2024 US presidential election “is maximally distrust-laden,” says Bremmer, adding that it’s “really hard to have a free and fair election in the US that all of its population” believes is legitimate.
And the worry is that AI could complicate the landscape even further.
Hill agreed that there’s cause for concern but underscored that people should not “panic” to a point where they’re “paralyzed” and “not taking action.”
“Panic is not an option given the stakes,” says Hill, adding, “There are negative aspects of all of this, but there's also the kind of question that we have to grapple with is how when legitimate competitors or opposition movements that otherwise beleaguered decide to use AI tools, that then also has an impact.”
There’s no doubt that AI can be used for nefarious purposes. Deepfakes can fool even the most discerning eye. Disinformation has already been rampant across the internet in recent election cycles and helped sow major divisions in many countries well before AI tools — far more sophisticated than your average meme — were widely available.
“With new tools and products that use generative AI, including from a company like ours, somebody can create a very realistic video, audio, or image. Just think about the different ways it can be used. Somebody can use it and they can make a video of themself, and they can make clear in the video that this is AI generated. That is one way a political candidate, even one who is in prison can speak,” says Smith, alluding to ex-Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s recent use of AI from behind bars.
Along these lines, there are many serious, valid concerns about the impact AI can have on elections and democracy more generally — particularly at a time when people are exhibiting rising levels of distrust in key institutions.
“It's very important to acknowledge a lot of the important developments that AI and emerging tech can bring to support our economic development,” says Maydell, adding, “but in the same time, especially this year, we need to be very sober about some of those threats that are in a way threatening the very fabric of our democratic societies.
As Maydell noted, this evolving new technology can be harnessed for good and bad. Can AI be used as a tool to protect candidates and the integrity of the electoral process?
A number of major tech companies, including Microsoft, signed an accord at the Munich Security Conference on Friday to help thwart and combat AI-related election interference.
“It's all about trying to put ourselves in a position, not to solve this problem completely, I don't think that's possible, but to manage this new reality in a way that will make a difference,” says Smith. The Microsoft president says the accord brings the tech sector together to preserve the authenticity of content, including by working to detect deepfakes and providing candidates with a mechanism to report any that are created about them.
“We'll work together to promote transparency and public education. This clearly is going to require a lot of work with civil society, with others around the world to help the public be ready,” says Smith.
But is enough being done?
“It's good that both politicians and the companies and society as a whole now has a better understanding where this is all leading us and we are collectively taking actions,” says Kaljulaid, but this is just a “first step” and “next steps need to follow.”
A balance will need to be found between legislating the challenges presented by AI and giving tech companies space to collaborate, innovate and address problems on their own.
“Democracy is always in jeopardy. Every generation has to answer the call to defend it,” says Smith, adding, “Now it's our turn. It's our turn as a generation of people to say that technology always changes, but democracy is a value that we hold timeless. So let's do what it takes to defend it, to preserve and promote it.”
The livestream was part of the Global Stage series, produced by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft. These discussions convene heads of state, business leaders, and technology experts from around the world for critical debate about the geopolitical and technology trends shaping our world.
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At the Munich Security Conference, Trump isn't the only elephant in the room
The Munich Security Conference (MSC) is all about providing a space to address the elephant in the room and fostering discussion on that one big topic people would rather avoid, says Benedikt Franke, the forum’s vice-chairman and CEO. But there’s more than just one elephant this year — a herd.
GZERO’s Tony Maciulis spoke with Franke in the lead-up to the conference about the various “elephants” on the agenda: The war in Gaza, Donald Trump, AI, and the war in Ukraine, to name a few.
They also delve into how the conference has always been defined by turning points for the world, recounting times when the forum collided with major historical moments — or made history itself. The 2024 MSC comes amid a year in which a record number of voters will head to the polls in dozens of critical elections across the globe when many people feel increasingly pessimistic about the future.
Franke says the conference hopes to answer the question of how to inject some optimism back into discourse on the world’s problems. “We don't want this to be a doom and gloom conference, we want to do everything we can to look for the silver lining at the horizon, for the low-hanging fruits, and there are many,” he says.
Join Ian Bremmer and a panel of experts this Saturday, February 17, at 12 pm ET/9 am PT/6 pm CET for our Global Stage discussion at the Munich Security Conference: Protecting Elections in the Age of AI.
Keep up with GZERO's Global Stage coverage of MSC 2024 for more.
Ukraine crisis one of many global threats at Munich Security Conference
While Russia’s aggression in Ukraine dominates the headlines, there are many other issues of global concern. In fact, there were so many important crises, according to Benedikt Franke, CEO of the Munich Security Conference, that it was impossible for him and his colleagues to rank them by intensity. There’s a sense of “helplessness,” he said, with the combination of climate change, migration, pandemic, and global hunger “overwhelming” us. So the conference decided not to prioritize global issues based on the level of threat. Instead, they decided to “treat them all the same,” Franke said.
Franke spoke with moderator David Sanger in GZERO Media's Global Stage livestream discussion at the Munich Security Conference.
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How Russian cyberwarfare could impact Ukraine & NATO response
World leaders were on hand Friday for the start of the Munich Security Conference amid increasing tensions over Ukraine. In a Global Stage livestream conversation in Munich, moderator David Sanger of The New York Times discussed the Russian threat and the need to secure cyberspace with the former president of Estonia, Kersti Kaljulaid, NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană, Benedikt Franke, chief executive officer of the Munich Security Conference, Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of New America, Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, and Brad Smith, president and vice chair of Microsoft.
When world leaders gathered for the Munich Security Conference two years ago — against the backdrop of Brexit and President Donald Trump’s “America First” approach to foreign policy — there was a sense of a lack of cohesion, of “Westlessness” among the allies. This year couldn’t look more different.
With Russia saber-rattling over Ukraine and the threat of military escalation looming, the NATO alliance has been given a fresh lease of life with a reason to unify.
“This is a uniquely coherent and cohesive Munich Security Conference, because every NATO ally is completely convinced of the importance of the mission … of the shared values,“ said Bremmer as he described the tone among conference-goers.
Everyone on hand, of course, would prefer a diplomatic solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but the tensions have offered a silver lining to the alliance. “We are rock solid … one of the good sides of this very unfortunate turn of events,” says NATO Deputy Sec. Gen. Mircea Geoană. “I’ve never seen a more diversified and intense consultation from our US allies with the rest of the alliance.”
Politicians, pundits and people on both sides of the Ukrainian border have been wondering the extent to which Russia might use conventional or unconventional means of force to manipulate Kyiv. Bremmer doesn’t think we should expect a “sudden blitzkrieg to Kyiv” so much as a slower assault/encroachment via “recognition of the breakaway territories of the Donbas.”
But clearly there is deep concern about spillover effects in the Baltic states. Kersti Kaljulaid, former president of Estonia, says her country is watching closely. “Kyiv is “not fighting only for Ukraine, but for all of us,” she says. Kaljulaid believes the current crisis poses a threat to European security. “If we are too focused on Ukraine and whether it'll be a slice or a bigger slice, I think we are missing the big picture.”
Recent weeks have also seen an upswing in Russian cyberattacks, and many are wondering how far the Kremlin will go.
Cyber will be a part of the offensive, whatever the scale of escalation, says Geoană. “In all scenarios that Russian leadership would use against Ukraine, cyber is across the board. It’s a part of the non-kinetic operation, part of a destabilization operation, and it’s part of a huge disinformation campaign.”
Such threats are serious, and Geoană noted that the alliance has agreed that a massive cyber attack could trigger Article 5, which lies at the heart of NATO’s collective defense.
So what can NATO do to defend against such attacks? Beyond the defensive knowhow it has developed in recent years, it’s also working with member states such as the US, UK, Denmark, and Estonia to leverage their individual offensive capabilities, to mitigate threats.
Beyond the Russia crisis, cyberwarfare and disinformation pose huge threats to democracies around the world, and greater understanding of those capabilities is sorely needed.
“[Disinformation] is the single biggest threat that Russia poses,” says Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of New America. And the information domain generally is full of conflict. It’s used to divide and conquer, with leaders like Putin telling lies so big that “people think there’s something there,” she says.
The US is doing a good job to control the counter narrative in today’s Ukraine crisis, Slaughter adds, but “digital literacy and really training Americans and others to understand that information can be manipulated” is a must. Slaughter notes that such knowledge will be as important as any military strategy in the years ahead.
Kaljulaid agrees. She notes that while people increasingly want to live in free, democratic countries, “a partisan war has broken out precisely in the cyber domain” that is trying to break those democracies.
Beyond the current crisis in Russia — for which everyone on hand at Munich hopes will be resolved through diplomatic means — “[cyber] is the real risk,” says Kaljulaid.
“Live from MSC 2022: Securing Cyberspace,” a Global Stage live conversation on cyber challenges facing governments, companies, and citizens, presented by GZERO Media and Microsoft, was recorded on February 18, 2022, in collaboration with the Munich Security Conference. Sign up for alerts about more upcoming GZERO events.
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