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2022's geopolitical twists and turns: Anne-Marie Slaughter & Tom Nichols discuss
From the rise and fall of the Roman Empire to the blink-of-an-eye tenure of British PM Liz Truss, political power is fleeting.
Just look at Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky.
Putin, who started 2022 as one of the most powerful leaders in the world, in many ways has now become a global pariah. Zelensky, a former comedian few trusted with a crisis, is now TIME Magazine's Person of the Year.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer looks back at 2022 and forward to 2023 with frequent guests of the show: New America CEO Anne-Marie Slaughter and The Atlantic staff writer Tom Nichols.
Were fears about US democracy in peril overblown or justified? Did China's Xi Jinping gain more power, or was his regime "cut down to size" when the zero-COVID policy finally caused massive protests? Russia's invasion of Ukraine upended the geopolitical balance around the world, but where will the war lead - especially if Putin really has no endgame?
This interview was featured in a GZERO World episode: On Russia’s reckoning, China’s vulnerability & US democracy’s Dunkirk
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- Podcast: Not infallible: Russia, China, and US democracy with Tom Nichols & Anne-Marie Slaughter ›
- Disinformation the “biggest threat” from Russia – Anne-Marie Slaughter ›
2022 showed Xi Jinping is not invincible; 2023 will be "rocky year" for him
What a year 2022 has been for Xi Jinping.
On the one hand, China's leader made clear he's the big boss after the 20th Communist Party Congress. On the other, he's been forced to roll back his zero-COVID policy following protests and the damage to the economy.
What will 2023 hold for Xi?
“It will be a rocky year for China,” former US State Department official Anne-Marie Slaughter tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. Moving away from lockdowns was long overdue, but the big problem now is that a large part of the elderly population is unvaccinated.
And it's very striking, she adds, that Xi had to reverse course when he realized he couldn't stop the protests.
For international relations expert Tom Nichols, the experience humbled Xi, whose "regime has been cut down to size." China, he points out, is no longer 10 feet tall like in the early days of COVID but just another government facing the same problems they all did during the pandemic.
Watch the GZERO World episode: On Russia’s reckoning, China’s vulnerability & US democracy’s Dunkirk
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- China’s tech crackdown & the Jack Ma problem - GZERO Media ›
Russia has no endgame — but it's not out of the game (yet)
Russia's war in Ukraine upended geopolitics in 2022. And its fallout will extend into 2023.
The one thing that keeps international relations expert Tom Nichols up at night is that there's no endgame for Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council turned nuclear-armed rogue state.
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, former US State Department official Anne-Marie Slaughter pushes back, arguing that while Russia may have gone rogue for the West, much of the rest of the world is still happy to deal with Moscow.
Still, Nichols says Vladimir Putin is a terrible strategist because he was already getting what he wanted before invading Ukraine: global institutions were weakening. If they hold now, he adds, it'll be thanks to Putin.
What's more, for Slaughter the Russian military has performed so poorly in Ukraine that they've made the Ukrainians "look pretty good by comparison."
Watch the GZERO World episode: On Russia’s reckoning, China’s vulnerability & US democracy’s Dunkirk
American democracy dodged a bullet in 2022
Were fears about US democracy in peril being overblown?
No, and in fact we're underestimating the danger, says Tom Nichols, a staff-writer at The Atlantic and author of the book "Our Own Worst Enemy: The Assault From Within On Modern Democracy."
"Election deniers and various other cooks and weirdos almost took over state offices," he tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, "and they're all coming back for another bite of the apple in 2024.”
For Anne-Marie Slaughter, former US State Department official and now CEO of New America, the main takeaway from the US midterms was Gov. Ron DeSantis's huge margin of victory in Florida and the many Trump-backed candidates who lost big. Both outcomes have massive implications for 2024.
Will the former POTUS beat DeSantis to win the GOP presidential nomination? Nichols, who used to be a Republican, puts Trump's odds at 60-70% and says he's amazed that some people question President Biden running again. It wouldn't be a debate for most other presidents.
Watch the GZERO World episode: On Russia’s reckoning, China’s vulnerability & US democracy’s Dunkirk
On Russia’s reckoning, China’s vulnerability & US democracy’s Dunkirk
2022 started and ended very differently for Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky.
Putin has gone from all-powerful to global pariah. Zelensky from untrustworthy former comedian to TIME magazine's Person of the Year.
It's one of the oldest lessons in the history books: political power can be fleeting.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer looks back at 2022 and forward to 2023 with two frequent guests of the show: former US State Department official Anne-Marie Slaughter and The Atlantic contributor Tom Nichols.
Lots to talk about: Ukraine, the state of American democracy, and Xi Jinping's rocky year.
Does Russia still have game after its disaster of a war in Ukraine? Did US democracy dodge a bullet with the unexpected result of the midterms? And has walking back zero-COVID humbled Xi on the year of his CCP coronation?
Podcast: Not infallible: Russia, China, and US democracy with Tom Nichols & Anne-Marie Slaughter
Listen: From the largest European land invasion since World War II in Ukraine to the essential “coronation” of the world’s most powerful person in Beijing, to one of the biggest political comebacks for Democrats in Washington, 2022 has been quite the year. Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of New America, and Tom Nichols, staff writer at The Atlantic, join Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World podcast to look back at the remarkable power shifts of 2022 and what it might mean for the year ahead.
Were fears about US democracy in peril overblown or justified? Did China's Xi Jinping gain more power, or was his regime "cut down to size" when the zero-COVID policy finally caused massive protests? Russia's invasion of Ukraine upended the geopolitical balance around the world, but where will the war lead - especially if Putin really has no endgame?
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.- Podcast: Can the US get its act together? Susan Glasser & Peter Baker on "the world’s greatest geopolitical crisis" ›
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- Podcast: Tom Nichols on Biden’s “boring” presidency and a narcissistic nation ›
- Disinformation the “biggest threat” from Russia – Anne-Marie Slaughter ›
- Podcast: Russia's view of the Ukraine war: a Kremlin ally's perspective - GZERO Media ›
- America vs itself: Political scientist Francis Fukuyama on the state of democracy - GZERO Media ›
- In divided America, anything goes in the name of “protecting democracy" - GZERO Media ›
What the West is doing wrong in the world's biggest crises
To fix our broken international political system, we need a crisis. For instance, a pandemic, climate change, Big Tech having too much power, or a Russia invasion of Ukraine. But it must be a crisis that's so destructive it forces us to respond fast, and together — like World War II. That's the crisis that created the international system we have today, and kept the peace until now. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer talks to Anne-Marie Slaughter, former US State Department official and now CEO of New America, and political scientist and Harvard professor Stephen Walt about the war and other crises.
Slaughter and Walt debate key issues such as the tough choices NATO faces on expanding to more countries but not Ukraine or other former Soviet republics, what we learned from the pandemic, and whether there are still reasons for hope in our current gloomy political environment. "If you're going to use a crisis effectively for change, you have to be able to have the right time horizon, the right group of countries, and a very specific set of goals," says Slaughter. But Walt believes we can't tackle all these crises at the same time — otherwise, at some point people will just throw up their hands and say it's just too hard.
For Walt, it was unfortunate to have "a lot of the wrong leaders in a lotta the wrong places at exactly the wrong time," which prevented for instance the US and China from coordinating a more effective global response to the pandemic.
Slaughter thinks we do have the ability to address many of the problems affecting the Global South because the most powerful countries are now all over the world. Many voices of people who need to be at the table — civic groups, CEOs, women, people of color — are not being heard.
Using today's crises to fix tomorrow's problems
We're moving toward more illiberalism, zero trust in the US-China relationship, and other global crises. Are there any reasons for hope?
Not for political scientist and Harvard professor Stephen Walt, who believes we can't tackle all these crises at the same time — otherwise, at some point people will just throw up their hands and say it's just too hard.
What's more, he tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, when a crisis hits, the temptation to turn to strongman rule to fix the problem "goes way up."
For her part, Anne-Marie Slaughter, former US State Department official and CEO of New America, thinks we do have the ability to address many of the problems affecting the Global South because the most powerful countries are now all over the world.
Still, she says that many voices of people who need to be at the table — civic groups, CEOs, women, people of color — are not being heard.
Watch the rest of Ian Bremmer's conversation with Anne-Marie Slaughter and Stephen Walt on this episode of GZERO World: Hope as major crises intersect