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FILE PHOTO: Rebel Bamar People's Liberation Army soldiers in full armor marching. April 15, 2023.
Myanmar’s democratic rebels set terms for talks. Will the Junta engage?
An alliance of fighters loyal to the former democratic government and ethnic minority militias has opened the door to talks with the junta in Myanmar over building a civilian-led federal government. The plan comes just ahead of the three-year anniversary of the coup against Aung San Suu Kyi and her brief democratic experiment, and follows three months of successful rebel offensives to take key border crossings to India, China, and Thailand.
What’s the plan? The so-called National Unity Government and its partners outlined six principles they hold to be nonnegotiable. In brief, the military must leave politics and subordinate itself to civilian control, a new constitution representing all stakeholders must be written, and a process of transitional justice must be set up to reconcile the grieving nation.
If the junta agrees, the NUG says it will negotiate “with the responsible leadership of the Myanmar military to terminate military rule and for peaceful transition of power.” If not, it will keep pressing the junta politically and militarily.
Will it work? The military didn’t immediately jump at the opportunity for talks, instead extending an official state of emergency by six months and delaying promised elections again. It’s not unexpected: Even if they struggle to control the border regions now, the feared Tatmadaw forces outgun and outnumber the NUG and any individual ethnic militia.
What’s more, militias from the Three Brotherhood Alliance that did the lion’s share of the fighting to seize those border regions didn’t sign on to NUG’s statement. If the best rebel fighters aren’t aligned on the peace plan, the junta may feel little compulsion to consider it seriously.
That said, officials in foreign capitals have worried that a collapse of the military regime could lead to the collapse of the state and exacerbate violence. Laying out a peace plan publicly – in English as well as Burmese – could be aimed as much at enticing political support overseas as domestically.
Volunteer members of Karenni insurgent forces walk in Moe Bye in Kayah State, Myanmar November 12, 2023.
A rebel alliance makes Myanmar’s junta sweat
Yesterday marked one month since the start of Operation 1027, a joint offensive by the Three Brotherhood Alliance ethnic minority rebels in Myanmar that has pushed junta forces out of key border crossings with China. They’ve made common cause against the military junta that took over in 2021 with the People’s Defense Forces, paramilitaries organized by members of the former democratic government — but they face a tough fight to overthrow the regime.
The offensive has left about 40% of Myanmar’s access to China under rebel control and halted hundreds of millions of dollars in trade across the frontier. Their successes have spurred other ethnic paramilitaries to attack, with offensives making ground in the states of Shan and Kayah in eastern Myanmar, and Rakhine in the West. The People’s Defense Forces have also disrupted military control in Sagaing and Magwe, pitting fighters from the ethnic majority Bamar against the military they have traditionally supported.
What will it take to topple the junta? Despite recent successes, the junta’s forces still outgun the rebels and enjoy complete air superiority. Taking the big cities would likely require more military might than the rebels can muster.
And there’s the question of Beijing, which cautiously re-engaged with the junta last year after the coup strained ties. The Three Brothers Alliance is trying to earn goodwill by specifically targeting centers run by organized crime syndicates that often essentially enslave Chinese citizens to run phone scams, which Beijing had urged the junta to crack down upon.
Finally, while the People’s Defense Forces and Three Brothers Alliance are cooperating for now, their long-term interests are not wholly aligned. Myanmar’s ethnic minority militias have fought for autonomy from the central government for decades, and it won’t be easy to persuade them they’ll be better off supporting some sort of return to power of the former democratic government, even if they do manage to jointly kick out the junta.