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Why Assad’s sudden fall was surprising
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Why did you originally think Assad would be able to resist being overthrown?
I am absolutely surprised at the sudden regime change after 50 years of the Assads being in charge. A couple of reasons for it. First is because despite HTS wanting to engage in strikes, the Turkish government, which has been supporting them militarily, had been saying, "No, no, no." And even when they supported them, it was a flashing yellow light. It was take local territory, let the Syrians have more control over their border region. It was not going after Assad. Also, because the Russians and the Iranians, though they were significantly stretched, were providing military support in the early days. So that's the reason I thought that they were likely to be able to resist, but the fact is that they imploded very, very quickly.
What led you to believe Yoon's martial law declaration would fail in South Korea?
Well, here felt a lot like January 6th in the United States, January 8th in Brazil. You had a besieged individual leader, in this case not about an election, but facing 20% approval rates and massive corruption scandals and all sorts of impeachments against members of his cabinet, just getting desperate and deciding to pull the trigger on emergency martial law illegally and without talking even to leadership of his own party. So it seemed pretty clear that there wasn't going to be support. The South Korean people, the judiciary, the parliament, and rank and file, and the military were clearly not going to be supportive. So I mean, I expected that to last very, very briefly, and it fell apart very quickly indeed. He should be out of power in short order. And I expect he's going to resign, by the way, as opposed to being impeached, but it could go either way.
What's another major geopolitical assessment you've made that played out differently than expected, and what does it reveal about the complexities of global politics?
One of the biggest ones is probably the role of technology in geopolitics. Back in the '90s, if you think about the coloured revolutions in the former Soviet republics, you think about the Arab Spring after that, technology was really the communications revolution. It was decentralizing. It gave individuals access to more information and power. It undermined authoritarian regimes, and it promoted democracy. And today, just 20 years, 25 years later, technology has completely changed geopolitically. It's much more top-down. It's much more centralizing. It's about the data revolution, the surveillance revolution. It increasingly empowers authoritarian states that know how to use it, and it undermines democracies. And that is maybe one of the biggest geopolitical changes that's happened in my political lifetime, certainly the biggest since the Soviet Union imploded back in 1989 to '91. And it just goes to show that no matter what you think about the world, if you're not constantly updating your views, you're going to be wrong at some point.
Protecting science from rising populism is critical, says UNESCO's Gabriela Ramos
In a GZERO Global Stage discussion at the 7th annual Paris Peace Forum, Gabriela Ramos, Assistant Director-General for Social and Human Sciences at UNESCO, highlighted the crucial role of science in fostering peace and expressed concerns over rising populism undermining scientific efforts.
"We need good science to navigate these waters... If you don't invest in scientific endeavors, it's going to be problematic," she said.
Ramos also addressed the challenges of artificial intelligence potentially widening global inequalities due to its concentrated development in a few countries. Emphasizing the need for ethical AI, she stated, "We need to invest to change it because AI is amazing. It's a promising tool, so we really need to get it right."
UNESCO is proactively addressing these challenges by framing an international standard for ethical AI, developed in collaboration with 194 countries. "We move away from a technological discussion to a societal one to say, is it enhancing our human rights? Is it not discriminating? Is it helping us with the environmental transition? And if the answer is no, we need to invest to change it because AI is amazing. It's a promising tool, so we really need to get it right," Ramos asserted.
This conversation was presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft at the 7th annual Paris Peace Forum. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical debates on the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world.
Follow GZERO coverage of the Paris Peace Forum here: https://www.gzeromedia.com/global-stage
Rebuilding post-election trust in the age of AI
In a GZERO Global Stage discussion at the 7th annual Paris Peace Forum, Teresa Hutson, Corporate Vice President at Microsoft, reflected on the anticipated impact of generative AI and deepfakes on global elections. Despite widespread concerns, she noted that deepfakes did not significantly alter electoral outcomes. Instead, Hutson highlighted a more subtle effect: the erosion of public trust in online information, a phenomenon she referred to as the "liar's dividend."
"What has happened as a result of deepfakes is... people are less confident in what they're seeing online. They're not sure. The information ecosystem is a bit polluted," Hutson explained. She emphasized the need for technological solutions like content credentials and content provenance to help restore trust by verifying the authenticity of digital content.
Hutson also raised concerns about deepfakes targeting women in public life with non-consensual imagery, potentially deterring them from leadership roles. Looking ahead, she stressed the importance of mitigating harmful uses of AI, protecting vulnerable groups, and establishing appropriate regulations to advance technology in trustworthy ways.
This conversation was presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft at the 7th annual Paris Peace Forum. The Global Stage series convenes heads of state, business leaders, and technology experts from around the world for critical debates about the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world.
Follow GZERO coverage of the Paris Peace Forum here: https://www.gzeromedia.com/global-stage
Ian Bremmer and Amina Mohammed on the promise and peril of AI
In a GZERO Global Stage discussion at the 79th UN General Assembly, Ian Bremmer and Amina Mohammed emphasized the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to drive progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and address global inequities.
Bremmer noted that AI could be the key to achieving goals like clean water access and reducing hunger, pointing out the transformative power AI could bring in the coming years.
"AI is your opportunity," Bremmer said. He highlighted the importance of capacity building, standard setting, and ensuring that the Global South has a seat at the table in AI governance efforts, noting that AI has the potential to move the world towards meaningful progress by 2030.
Amina Mohammed echoed this sentiment but urged caution, emphasizing the need for responsible deployment of AI. "It's really exciting, it's scary, and we're not ready," she said, stressing the importance of investments and proper infrastructure to ensure AI benefits humanity as a whole. Mohammed underscored the responsibility of global leaders to ensure checks and balances are in place as AI continues to evolve.
Bremmer and Mohammed spoke during GZERO’s Global Stage livestream, “Live from the United Nations: Securing our Digital Future,” an event produced in partnership between the Complex Risk Analytics Fund, or CRAF’d, and GZERO Media’s Global Stage series, sponsored by Microsoft. The Global Stage series convenes heads of state, business leaders, and technology experts from around the world for critical debates about the geopolitical and technology trends shaping our world.
AI's existential risks: Why Yoshua Bengio is warning the world
In this episode of GZERO AI, Taylor Owen, host of the Machines Like Us podcast, reflects on the growing excitement around artificial intelligence. At a recent AI conference he attended, Owen observes that while startups and officials emphasized AI's economic potential, prominent AI researcher Yoshua Bengio voiced serious concerns about its existential risks. Bengio, who's crucial to the development of the technology, stresses the importance of cautious public policy, warning that current AI research tends to prioritize power over safety.
A couple of weeks ago, I was at this big AI conference in Montreal called All In. It was all a bit over the top. There were smoke machines, loud music, and food trucks. It's clear that AI has come a long way from the quiet labs it was developed in. I'm still skeptical of some of the hype around AI, but there's just no question we're in a moment of great enthusiasm. There were dozens of startup founders there talking about how AI was going to transform this industry or that, and government officials promising that AI was going to supercharge our economy.
And then there was Yoshua Bengio. Bengio is widely considered one of the world's most influential computer scientists. In 2018, he and two colleagues won the Turing Award, the Nobel Prize of Computing for their work on deep learning, which forms the foundation of much of our current AI models. In 2022, he was the most cited computer scientist in the world. It's really safe to say that AI, as we currently know it, might not exist without Yoshua Bengio.
And I recently got the chance to talk to Bengio for my podcast, "Machines Like Us." And I wanted to find out what he thinks about AI now, about the current moment we're in, and I learned three really interesting things. First, Bengio's had an epiphany of sorts, as been widely talked about in the media. Bengio now believes that, left unchecked, AI has the potential to pose an existential threat to humanity. And so he's asking us, even if there's a small chance of this, why not proceed with tremendous caution?
Second, he actually thinks that the divide over this existential risk, which seems to exist in the scientific community, is being overplayed. Him and Meta's Yann LeCun, for example, who he won the Turing Prize with, differ on the timeframe of this risk and the ability of industry to contain it. But Bengio argues they agree on the possibility of it. And in his mind it's this possibility which actually should create clarity in our public policy. Without certainty over risk, he thinks the precautionary principle should lead, particularly when the risk is so potentially grave.
Third, and really interestingly, he's concerned about the incentives being prioritized in this moment of AI commercialization. This extends from executives like LeCun potentially downplaying risk and overstating industry's ability to contain it, right down to the academic research labs where a majority of the work is currently focused on making AI more powerful, not safer. This is a real warning that I think we need to heed. There's just no doubt that Yoshua Bengio's research contributed greatly to the current moment of AI we're in, but I sure hope his work on risk and safety shapes the next. I'm Taylor Owen and thanks for watching.
UN’s first global framework for AI governance
Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming global industries and societies, and the United Nations has taken a bold step to address its governance. During its 79th General Assembly, the UN adopted a pact they are calling “Summit of the Future.” Ian Bremmer, a member of the UN's high-level advisory panel on AI, highlighted the UN's efforts to create a global framework for AI governance.
The newly released report, Governing AI for Humanity, represents the first truly global approach to addressing the governance challenges posed by AI. Carme Artigas, co-chair of the panel, reinforced why the UN is uniquely positioned to lead this effort. As AI transcends borders and industries, no single nation can manage its potential harms, such as bias, discrimination, and lack of inclusivity, alone. By bringing together nations, particularly those from the global south, the UN aims to foster collaboration, encourage responsible AI development, and ensure that human rights remain at the forefront of innovation.
As AI continues to evolve, global governance of this transformative technology will become increasingly important in ensuring equity and minimizing risks.
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- AI regulation means adapting old laws for new tech: Marietje Schaake ›
- Breaking: The UN unveils plan for AI ›
- The challenges of peacekeeping amid rising global conflicts - GZERO Media ›
UN Secretary-General António Guterres on AI, Security Council reform, and global conflicts
UN Secretary-General António Guterres joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World Podcast for an exclusive conversation from the sidelines of the General Assembly at a critical moment for the world and the UN itself. Amid so many ongoing crises, is meaningful reform at the world’s largest multilateral institution possible? Between ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the climate crisis threatening the lives of millions, and a broken Security Council, there’s a lot to discuss. But there are some reasons for optimism. This year could bring the UN into a new era by addressing one of the biggest challenges facing our society: artificial intelligence and the growing digital divide. This year, the UN will hold its first-ever Summit of the Future, where members will vote on a Global Digital Compact, agreeing to shared principles for AI and digital governance. In a wide-ranging conversation, Guterres lays out his vision for the future of the UN and why he believes now is the time to reform our institutions to meet today’s political and economic realities.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
- Can the UN get the world to agree on AI safety? ›
- An interview with UN Secretary-General António Guterres ›
- 2023 UN General Assembly's top objective, according to António Guterres ›
- Peace in Ukraine is world's priority, says UN chief António Guterres ›
- UN’s first global framework for AI governance - GZERO Media ›
- The challenges of peacekeeping amid rising global conflicts - GZERO Media ›
- At the Paris Peace Forum, war and conflicts were topics du jour - GZERO Media ›
Ian Explains: Why is the UN's Summit of the Future so important?
Will the United Nations be able to adapt to address problems of the modern era, like artificial intelligence and the growing digital divide? On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer looks at the challenges of multilateralism in an increasingly fragmented world.
In the face of crises like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the war in Gaza, and a rapidly warming planet, the UN’s goals of peace and security feel like a failure. But this year’s Summit of the Future during the General Assembly could be a turning point for the 78-year-old institution. UN members will vote on a Global Digital Compact to regulate AI, fight misinformation, and connect the whole world to the internet. Bremmer is one of 39 experts on the UN’s High-Level Advisory Body who've been studying the issue of global AI governance for the past year to better understand what that Compact should include. This week, the group released a report called “Governing AI for Humanity” with recommendations for creating a global regulatory framework for AI that is safe, inclusive, and equitable. Instead of a patchwork of regulation that’s happened so far, which has been concentrated in wealthy countries, can the UN lead the global AI conversation?
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