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The Graphic Truth: Do US party conventions help in the polls?
US presidential candidates usually get a polling boost immediately after their major party convention. But in recent years the so-called "convention bounce" is hardly guaranteed — Democratic hopeful John Kerry's numbers dipped slightly in 2004, as did Republican aspirant Mitt Romney's in 2012. Even when post-convention bumps have been bigger, that hasn't always translated into winning the White House in the end. With the DNC done and the RNC wrapping this week, we take a look at how conventions have historically affected the candidates' poll numbers.
DNC 2020 recap: Joe Biden's character & the 2020 presidential election
Watch as Eurasia Group's Jon Lieber offers a recap of the Democratic National Convention to nominate Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate for president:
All in all, a successful convention for the Democrats, four nights of pretty slick production values that drove home the message of Joe Biden's decency and the fact he is not Donald Trump. One interesting contrast between 2020 and 2016 was that the Democrats largely treated Donald Trump like a joke in 2016 and didn't seem to take very seriously. This year, they're treating him as though he's an existential threat to democracy with a really dark and ominous warning from former President Barack Obama.
Interesting snub of Julián Castro, the former presidential candidate who did not appear alongside the other Democratic candidates, even though Mike Bloomberg, a former Republican, got significant airtime along with other Republican validators of Joe Biden's bipartisanship and decency, trying to suggest that if you elect him, he's going to return represent a return to normalcy. Not a lot of talk about policy at the convention, which, of course, would take the focus off the character of Joe Biden and give President Trump stronger grounds for attacking.
Next week, you're going to have the Republican National Convention, where I think you're going to have a lot of focus on Democratic policies designed to make the Democrats look like out of touch urban elites. Some interesting, colorful characters. I expect ratings will probably be down for the Republicans as well. And in a couple of weeks, the campaign will have moved on to the next really important thing that's going to happen, which is the debates. And that's President Trump's next opportunity to try to make Joe Biden look like he may be a little bit too old for the job, something Biden did a great job last night of dispelling with a very competent workman-like acceptance speech.
Virtual DNC builds enthusiasm but Dems should not get complacent
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on this week's World In (More Than) 60 Seconds:
Number one, the DNC is underway, the Democratic National Convention, how do you think the first night went?
Well, it's weird, right? Because it's virtual. But the fact that it's virtual means that everybody gets to practice their speeches and get the cinematic quality right, before it actually goes out. So, I mean, you know, when you've got a whole bunch of money and you've got Hollywood sensibilities advising you, you can make it look really good. And that's what they did. So, I mean, I do think it was entertaining, it was engaging. I think from a more meaningful, substantive perspective, it is pretty clear that you have a broader tent that is focused on getting Trump out of office.
Now, I mean the other side of that is that Biden is not driving the train, right? I mean, there's not an immense amount of enthusiasm about the actual candidate. And Kamala Harris certainly helps, but ultimately, Biden is the presidential candidate. And, you know, he's not going to inspire the way that Obama did, or Michelle Obama did last night. But certainly, I don't think you're going to have Bernie Sanders delegates, you know, opposing Biden the way many did during 2016 when I was at the both the Democratic and Republican National Conventions then. It was quite something to see, just the dissonance inside what was not one happy tent. Here, you've got a lot of people that are very motivated because everyone's angry with Trump. And I think with Kasich as well, who I, you know, I know pretty well. And I mean, you know, is an older guy from Ohio and it's an important swing state, but ultimately, I don't think Kasich is the person that swings more people to vote for Trump. It's just that there are also, in addition to the Bernie Sanders people being really anti Trump, there are a number of disenfranchised Republicans that are opposed to Trump, too. So, I think all of that, you know, certainly hurts.
And I also think it's true that Trump has criticized the fact that, well, they did these takes at different times so, you know, some people said 150,000, 160,000, 170,000 dead. In other words, they've been done over the last two weeks. True. But I mean, the fact is that the biggest crisis of my lifetime is happening right now. And, you know, President Trump didn't ask for that. It's not his fault that that's when it happened, but he's got the bag. And how he has seemed to respond to that crisis is a big piece of whether people are or are not going to vote for him. And, you know, the fact that that is 170,000 deaths and counting, right now, and the US economy is hurting, right now, is a real uphill lift.
And I've seen a lot of people saying, "well, if it wasn't for coronavirus, the economy would be doing really well. And, you know, what would the Democrats have to run on?" Sure, but of course, you're going to run on the biggest crisis that we've felt in our lifetimes. And Trump's direct leadership of that crisis has been lacking. And I think that's why Michelle Obama's speech was so powerful. It's not that everyone in the world loves Michelle, it's that she focused on the fact that Trump is not handling the crisis very well. This idea that, you know, well, "it is what it is." That line was so damning because it was Trump's response to all of the people that have died on coronavirus, you know, while he's president.
So, you know, that's where I think the DNC is. You know, it's virtual, a lot of people are watching it, I guess it's giving enthusiasm. I don't think it's going to give that much of a bump to Biden. And by the way, I do think that the numbers are going to get tighter between Biden and Trump as you get close to elections. Why? Because coronavirus numbers are coming down and hopefully will continue to come down as we learn more about it, and as there is more social distancing, and more mask wearing, and the rest, and also because the economy is going to continue to rebound. So, I mean, I wouldn't be complacent if I was a Democrat right now.
What is going on in New Zealand?
Well, President Trump said that there is a new outbreak, a big surge, in New Zealand, which is true. It's nine people. And that is a big surge for New Zealand because they had no cases for 100 days in the whole country and they had gotten back to normal. I mean, you know, gyms, sporting events, nightclubs, you name it. Can't do that now. Auckland is the capital, basically, excuse me, Aukland is the biggest city in New Zealand, not the capital, is under lockdown right now. And that's because they don't want to have spiraling cases. That's pretty impressive. It also means that they are delaying their national elections for four weeks, which is perfectly legal for them to do. And it's because they want to make sure that they have as much control over this virus as they possibly can. And there is very little to learn from New Zealand for the United States. They are an isolated country with relatively small population. It's not dense, densely populated. The one thing you can learn is that taking a pandemic seriously and leading with science and experts is that generally smart thing to do. But aside from that, I wouldn't say very much.
With China's vice grip over Hong Kong tightening, will the US recognize Taiwan sovereignty?
No, I don't think so. The US has an ambiguous position on Taiwanese sovereignty, does not recognize China's position, but it also does not formally recognize Taiwanese sovereignty. It is certainly moving more in that direction with the recent decision to send Cabinet Secretary Azar, of Health and Human Services, to Taiwan. I would say that is moving up to a Chinese red line, but not actually crossing it. My sense from the Trump administration is that they don't want to actually cross red lines in the coming weeks because they don't want a crisis with the Chinese. They just want to continue to show they're the toughest out there. Having said that, that's what the advisers are saying. What President Trump actually does, you know, is at the end of the day up to him. But I'd be really surprised if they move on this. Taiwan's never been a significant issue for President Trump himself. And Pompeo, the Secretary of State, knows what those red lines are.
Finally, will Russia intervene in Belarus?
This is a big and open question, and I don't think they will. We do see Russian troops moving up to the Belarus border. And keep in mind, Belarus is connected to Russia, but otherwise borders on NATO states, the Baltics and Poland. And the Russians have claimed that there is the potential for external intervention and warned countries, and said this with Merkel, the chancellor of Germany, warned them against external intervention. And that the Russians said they would intercede if there was external intervention. So, I think what Putin is doing is basically showing the international community that Belarus is still going to be under Russian influence. And by the way, the Belarusian people who hate Lukashenko, the president, have no problem with a continued political alignment towards Russia. But Putin is also making it clear to Lukashenko that he's not intending to intervene. Russian state media is focusing a great deal on the demonstrations. Putin has said very little about Lukashenko and the domestic situation in Belarus itself.
This reminds me very much of two years ago with Armenia when the Russians allowed a Coloured Revolution, a Velvet Revolution, to remove a kleptocratic government and bring in a prime minister who was anti corrupt, but still Armenia, very aligned towards Russia for military purposes, for economic and trading purposes and otherwise. And I think that is the case with Belarus. If the Russians were to militarily intervene to prop up an incredibly unpopular and very incompetent Lukashenko government, they would end up with lots of Belarussians directly opposing them. And for that reason, I'd be very surprised if Putin intervenes militarily.
That does mean it is more likely that Lukashenko is forced out. But so far, the military forces in Belarus have been supporting him. And until we see significant breaches there, the potential for more violence is quite significant. I mean, frankly, if the Russians were to intervene, I think they would actually squeeze politically and economically Lukashenko to leave if it looks like he really is that his last thread, and he's starting to use violence, allowing him to get out of the country and giving him a place of exile, but facilitating a new Belarusian government that ultimately would more reflect the interests of the people but would have a good relationship with Russia. That's where I think we're going, a bright spot in otherwise a pretty gloomy geopolitical outlook.
Democratic National Convention goes virtual; Trump counterprograms
Jon Lieber, who leads Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, offers insight on this week's DNC:
The Democratic Party is supposed to have their convention this week in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. However, plans changed due to the coronavirus and now you're basically looking at a week-long zoom call. There will be a lot of traditional elements at the convention that feel the same to viewers at home. Several hours of primetime coverage every night, you are going to have the primetime speeches by the big party luminaries, you're going to have daily themes highlighting the ideas that Joe Biden wants to focus on, and then you're going to have smaller speeches during the day from kind of up and comers in the party, but it's just all taking place in a virtual environment that's going to look a lot different.
All the evidence suggests that there's usually a short bounce in the polls coming out of the partisan conventions. This week, Biden should expect to get one. Next week, Trump will expect to get one. That's probably because they get about a week of nice press and a lot of attention. And that helps them in the short-term, but it always fades. No reason to think that would be any different this year. One element that's going to be really different this year, however, is that President Trump is attempting to counterprogram against the Biden convention. He's giving speeches in Minnesota and Wisconsin, today. And on Thursday, the day that Joe Biden is giving his acceptance speech, he's going to give a speech in Biden's hometown of Scranton, Pennsylvania. He wants to keep the attention on him and try to limit that bounce for Joe Biden.