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How Biden’s presidency will be remembered
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
This is what we're watching in US Politics this week: One question that's going to be debated for a long time in the coming years is what is President Biden's legacy? I think there are a couple of things that he's going to be remembered for.
The first is the extraordinarily chaotic global environment over which he presided. Republicans will tie this back to the shambolic withdrawal from Afghanistan that President Biden presided over. But following that, you had the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the events of October 7th in the Middle East that led to the ongoing war there that is just now starting to look like it's settling down. But this is clearly going to be one of the background themes of any assessments of President Biden's legacy.
Biden's now one of four one-term presidents in the last 50 years, and one of the reasons that he lost was of course inflation. And inflation, you could argue was fueled by the pandemic or you could argue it was fueled by early actions taken by the Biden administration to spend a lot of money, perhaps more money than was necessary. But either way, the inflationary story of 2021 and 2022 is going to be remembered as one of his key legacies and one of the reasons that he lost reelection. Now that loss to Donald Trump, allowing probably one of the more controversial presidents in certainly recent American history, to come back into office and mount an unprecedented political comeback is also going to be part of Biden's legacy. Because of the fact that he decided that he was able to run even at his advanced age, that blocked out the Democrats from having an opportunity to hold a primary and then forced the Democrats to change horses midstream and move over to Kamala Harris in the middle of the election cycle, who of course lost to Trump. That is also going to be part of his legacy.
And it's unclear. Biden thinks, says it publicly, he could have won election if he just stayed in. He's 82 years old. He'd be the oldest president ever if he did, and there's obvious decline in his faculties over the course of the year. But more importantly, the American people really started to lose confidence in Biden as time went on this year. So not at all clear that he would've won that election or that any other Democrat could have won that election if there were a primary process. But his sticking around and the White House staff and other Democratic operatives that covered for the age-related decline that he was experiencing is also going to be a part of President Biden's election.
Probably one of the more consequential things I think he's going to end up having done over the longer term is increasing the US confrontation with China, particularly over technology policy. The world is at a critical juncture when it comes to the advanced semiconductors and artificial intelligence. And the wall that the Biden administration has been trying to erect around Chinese access to US advanced technologies is going to have ripple effects and repercussions for years to come. The Trump administration's likely to continue a lot of that, and this could potentially be an inflection point in 10 years time as we look back and look at the two different tech ecosystems that are being built out. A lot of that legacy is going to trace back to the Biden administration.
So that's a pretty complex, mixed legacy. The US doesn't have lot of one-term presidents in recent history. Most one-term presidents aren't remembered that fondly. Presidents like George H.W. Bush look a lot better in the long distance of history, whereas President Jimmy Carter who recently passed away still has a bit of a mixed legacy. And that's probably where Biden's going to end up.
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What Trump’s cabinet picks reveal so far
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
This is what we're watching in US politics this week: It's Trump's transition, of course. Lots of activity happening over the course of the week with some unexpected developments, including a lot of very unusual cabinet appointees. Sean Duffy at Department of Transportation, former "Real World" star and congressman, who has very little experience with transportation other than presumably driving a car, and of course, competing on the "Real World/Road Rules Challenge" is going to be in charge of the transportation department.
Other picks like Pete Hegseth have been a little more controversial. The former Army National Guard member and Fox News host has been accused of sexual assault. Not a great look for the incoming Secretary of Defense. But he's nowhere near as controversial as the recently withdrawn pick, Matt Gaetz, the firebrand Congressman from Florida who resigned his seat in order to become Trump's attorney general, and then found out that no Republican wanted him in that job.
Gaetz's withdrawal will allow some of the more controversial attention to be focused on people like RFK Jr. as the Secretary of Health and Human Services, somebody with a long career in the nonprofit management space, but no experience in public administration and who's been extremely critical of the US's Public Health Administration, including on toxins in foods, additives in foods, vaccines, and the approval process for them. And he's tapped into a strain of anger among Republicans at the public health apparatus that they say failed to protect the public during the COVID-19 epidemic, pointing to inconsistent and sometimes unnecessary masking guidelines. Things like social distancing, keeping the schools closed, and of course the vaccine recommendations that a lot of Republicans rejected during that pandemic. RFK's confirmation odds, however, look pretty good if you look at the relatively warm reception that he's been received with by most Republicans.
One area that's still totally in doubt for the most part is Trump's economic team. It's been two weeks since the election, there's no treasury of the secretary, there's no USTR. There is a commerce secretary pick, another Trump ally who has no experience in public administration, Howard Lutnick, a lot like Wilbur Ross in the first administration, but potentially leaving Trump's trade czar, Robert Lighthizer, without any clear role. So there's a lot more clarity on the national security side than there is on the economic side for now. That may change over the weekend. And of course, the one thing with President Trump is you could always expect the unexpected.
US election: GOP could win a Trump-led sweep
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
It's election night in America. And a slightly unexpected result tonight, with the election returns coming back very strong for President Donald Trump. He may actually end up winning the national popular vote, which was not, I think, on anyone's bingo card, really.
Big surprise for Trump has been a surge in rural support where the Trump coalition showed up to vote for him. Meanwhile, Harris has somewhat underperformed in urban areas, and while she did have a pretty good showing with women voters, it wasn't enough to keep her ahead of Trump, at least in the results as we know them tonight.
Harris has been underperforming down-ballot Democrats generally, which has kept the Democrats competitive in the House, which could lead to an unusual situation where all three of the main political bodies in the United States, the White House, the House, and the Senate, flip in the same election. The Senate is in the bag for Republicans. They're going to have somewhere between 52 and 55 seats, it looks like. And Trump is probably the favorite to win in the Electoral College.
The House outcome we may not know in the next 24 hours. Some of the House seats that really matter in determining the majority, which is very close, are slow to count. But right now, it does look like Democrats have some momentum with a couple of Republicans losing key seats.
So stay tuned for more of what we're watching this week in US politics.
United States Senator JD Vance (Republican of Ohio) at the 2024 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland, U.S., on Friday, February 23, 2024.
The pluses and minuses of JD Vance
All running mates bring advantages and disadvantages to presidential candidates, but the choice of JD Vance is a striking sign of the political times. Vance strengthens Donald Trump’s “champion of the working man” message – a Republican rebranding away from its strongly pro-business past. We also saw that emphasis in the striking first-night convention speech from Sean O’Brien, president of the Teamsters, a labor union with 1.3 million members, who accused business and corporate lobbyists of “waging a war against American workers.” That’s not a speech you would have heard at any Republican National Convention of the past century. Vance’s reputation as defender of the globalization-battered working class can help Trump in the electorallycrucial Midwest industrial belt states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
But Vance is also an absolutist on restricting abortion, the Republican’s biggest current weakness, according to polls. He has adopted Trump’s line that abortion rules should be left to the states, but his voting record is striking. He favors banning abortions, even if the mother is avictim of rape or incest, as well as laws that allowpolice to track women who have crossed state lines for an abortion. He has opposed legislation that would protect in vitro fertilization. A poll earlier this month showed that61% of US adults want their state to allow abortion for any reason, and 62% support protections for access to IVF.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-LA., returns to his office in the US Capitol on Monday, Nov. 13, 2023.
Mike Johnson has a plan to avert the shutdown – will it work?
Is it better to kick two cans down the road rather than one? House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is about to find out in the first big test of his speakership. With another government shutdown deadline looming on Friday, the House plans to vote today on Johnson’s plan to keep the US government from plunging over the fiscal cliff – again.
The background: We’ve been here before, recently. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) avoided a shutdown in September only by relying on Democratic support for a bill that kept government spending flat. But he paid for it with his job: Far-right members led by Matt Gaetz (R-FL) had demanded deep spending cuts, and when they didn’t get their way, they ousted the speaker for the first time in US history.
The new approach: Johnson, who comes from the right wing of the GOP himself, isn’t trying McCarthy’s approach. Instead of asking members to vote on a single bill to keep the government running, Johnson has proposed what is known as a “laddered” approach that will fund government spending on military construction, Veterans Affairs, transportation, housing, and the Energy Department — where there is broad consensus on funding levels — through Jan. 19, 2024, while delaying a decision on the rest of the government’s funding until Feb. 2, 2024.
Johnson got the House Rules Committee to approve his unorthodox approach on Monday, but that was the easy bit. He’s now got to shepherd through a proposal that can pass the Democratic-controlled Senate (which will reject spending cuts) without angering the same far-right caucus that unseated his predecessor (which wants deep spending cuts).
“Johnson has more runway than McCarthy, but more runway is not a license to do anything you want,” said Eurasia Group’s US Director Clayton Allen. “Johnson is trying to find a way forward that does not blow up his position with the GOP conference.”
That path may require suspending the normal rules of the House to move the bill through. If he can cobble together a two-thirds majority of Republicans who are ok with no spending cuts right now and Democrats who want to keep the government funded even if they don’t love the two-step structure, far-right GOP members can still vote “no” but can’t offer amendments or otherwise delay the passage of the bill, thereby avoiding a shutdown.
And by separating the few easy spending items from the rest for early next year, Johnson is offering those same members another chance to get their desired cuts a little later, perhaps with some additional leverage to negotiate with the Senate. Will it be enough of a concession to save his bacon? That’s what we’re about to find out.
Polling numbers of GOP candidates
The Graphic Truth: Who's leading the Republican primary?
If you know anything about the state of the Republican presidential race right now, you know that former President Donald Trump is leaps and bounds ahead of the pack. But the race is just getting started.
A lot can change in the first few primary states and debates, so we decided to track the polls in three early primary states to see if Trump holds onto his formidable lead or if another candidate emerges to give him a run for his money. These are where the numbers stood before the first debate. We will report back if the tides begin to turn.
Former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump greets the crowd during a campaign rally in Windham, New Hampshire, on Aug. 8, 2023.
On stage or not, Trump will dominate the debate
When Republican presidential candidates take to the stage in Milwaukee on Aug. 23 for the first debate of the 2024 campaign, one issue will loom above all others – and you know exactly what his name is.
Whether Donald Trump appears on stage or chooses instead to offer live commentary via social media, the central question facing participants will be whether the frontrunning, hyper-charismatic, twice-impeached, thrice-indicted former president is the right candidate to carry the Republican standard into political combat next year against President Joe Biden.
How could it be otherwise? Poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight.com estimates that Trump leads Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, his nearest Republican challenger, by nearly 40 percentage points (53.7% to 14.3%) in current polling. No other candidate reaches 8%.
The 78 felony counts Trump now faces in three separate indictments – a fourth indictment, this one in Georgia, may land soon – have failed to dent his popularity with Republican voters. And they’ve kept Trump in the headlines, depriving rivals of chances to earn the attention they need to grow their campaigns.
That’s why the other candidates on the debate stage must think carefully about what to say about Trump. In hopes of staying on the good side of millions of voters devoted to Trump, or even of becoming Trump’s vice-presidential running mate, some will dodge questions that invite criticism of the former president and train their fire on Biden, other Democrats, and the media.
But anyone who hopes to beat Trump must find chances to persuade voters that Trump can’t beat Biden. And they won’t have many high-profile opportunities to draw voter attention with Trump’s various trials dominating political news for the foreseeable future.
Who can be on the stage? To qualify for the debate, each candidate needs to be polling at at least 1% in three quality national polls or in a mix of national and state polls, and they must have at least 40,000 donors. So far, eight candidates have met the requirements including Trump, DeSantis, Tim Scott, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Doug Burgum, and former VP Mike Pence.
The other great unanswered debate question: Will Trump show?
The arguments against him appearing are obvious. Trump is winning. Big. There’s no upside to appearing alongside minor-league rivals who desperately need to break through with the huge audience that only a Trump-dominated event can deliver.
But will Trump agree to sit at home when he could be center stage? He might not want to allow accusations from other candidates to go unanswered. Particularly since he knows that many Republican voters, who get most of their news from media outlets that avoid critical coverage of Trump, might be hearing strident criticism of him directly from fellow Republicans for the first time.
That includes criticism from rival candidates like Pence, Haley, and Christie, who have worked for or supported Trump in the past.
The bottom line: The polls say Trump is the prohibitive favorite for the Republican nomination. The Aug. 23 debate will give his Republican rivals an important early opportunity to rewrite this story. Donald Trump’s decision on whether and how to respond will set the tone for the rest of the primary campaign.
DeSantis is more disciplined than Trump, says NPR journalist
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is a rising Republican star. And his resounding victory in the US midterms is all but confirmation of a likely run for the president in 2024.
But he'll go up against former President Donald Trump.
For NPR White House correspondent Tamara Keith, they're not the same. DeSantis, she tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, is younger and far more disciplined than Trump.
And Florida's governor is more focused on policy — which may improve his potential for success.