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Republican presidential candidate and former US President Donald Trump gestures at a watch party event to mark the Super Tuesday primary elections at his Mar-a-Lago property, in Palm Beach, Florida, on March 5, 2024.
Super Tuesday results shock no one
President Joe Biden and Donald Trump cemented their leads in the 16 primary contests yesterday, and a rematch of 2020 now looks inevitable.
Trump won at least 13 of the votes and is set to clinch the nomination as soon as next week. His biggest competition, Nikki Haley, carved out a surprise win in Vermont, bringing her delegate tally up to 89 compared to Trump’s 995. But she opted out of a victory speech in the Green Mountain State – and is reportedly planning to suspend her campaign.
But her showing in North Carolina signaled that anti-Trump sentiment is alive and well, especially among independents and college-educated Republicans. Trump only narrowly carried Republican primary voters with college degrees in North Carolina, 51% to 45%, and roughly one in four Republicans in the Tar Heel State said they would feel dissatisfied if Trump won the nomination.
Biden blew his rivals out of the water. The president won every race apart from the American Samoa, where he tied with entrepreneur Jason Palmer.
But the trend of Democratic voters choosing “uncommitted” in protest of US policy in Gaza continued on Super Tuesday. Uncommitted earned 19% of the votes in Minnesota, mirroring the results in Michigan last week and potentially threatening the Midwestern “blue wall” that was critical to his victory over Trump in 2020.
Other key races: In the California Senate race, Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff boxed out his Democratic rivals and is likely to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein when he faces off against the GOP candidate in the dependably blue state. In Alabama, newly drawn districts look likely to lead to the red state sending two Black representatives to Washington for the first time.
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Are you wondering about other elections around the globe this year? Check out GZERO's guide to the most pivotal votes of 2024.
Michigan’s primary mattered, here’s why
Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden won their primaries in Michigan yesterday, but the vote revealed vulnerabilities for Joe Biden that could come back to haunt him in November.
Why Michigan mattered: It was Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in Michigan that sealed the 2016 election, and Joe Biden’s triumph over Trump there and in other Upper Midwestern states in 2020 that decided the election. In all probability, it will play a decisive role this November
Michigan is also home to the largest Arab-American population in the United States. After a concerted campaign in protest of the Biden administration’s policy toward Israel and Gaza, 13 percent of Democratic primary voters chose “uncommitted” last night. In Dearborn and Hamtramck, two of the Michigan cities with the highest concentrations of Arab Americans, “uncommitted” won 56 and 61 percent of the Democratic vote respectively. Significant portions of Michigan’s college towns also voted uncommitted in protest, foreshadowing how many young, progressive voters are angry about American support for Israel.
GOP voters once again rejected Nikki Haley in favor of Donald Trump. Haley lost for a fifth time against the former president, winning 27% of the vote against Trump’s 68%. She has vowed to stay in the race through Super Tuesday, where the lion's share of the delegates are up for grabs.
U.S. President Joe Biden holds a campaign rally ahead of the state's Democratic presidential primary, in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S. February 4, 2024.
Nevada primary: Why Trump and Haley won’t be on the same ballot
Nevada will host its Democratic and Republican primary on Tuesday, and then another Republican caucus on Thursday. Confused? Allow us to explain.
In 2021, Nevada passed a law to replace its caucus system with a primary. But there’s a loophole: The state is required to hold a primary, but the parties still control how delegates are appointed.
Donald Trump pressured state party leaders to ignore Tuesday’s state primary and allocate its 26 delegates to the winner of a party-run caucus two days later. Trump, realizing the power state party officials wield in the primaries, has executed a backroom campaign to bend the rules in his favor.
Candidates could not participate in both races, and Nikki Haley chose the delegate-less primary in the hopes of generating headlines from a symbolic win while focusing on the next primary in South Carolina. This strategy could backfire if Trump supporters chose the “None of These Candidates” instead of voting for her. Trump, alone on the only ballot that matters, is guaranteed to lead Haley 59-17 after Nevada.
Although President Joe Biden is expecting an easy win in the primary, he has been campaigning hard in Nevada. After winning the swing state by just 3% in 2020, his campaign is trying to shore up support in preparation for a tough rematch against Trump in the general election.
What Democrats and Republicans have in common this Thanksgiving
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
What are three things that lawmakers have to be grateful for this Thanksgiving?
Well, the first is that they get to go home. Lawmakers reached a short-term deal to fund the government until January 19th, which means that they won't be around Washington, DC, beating each other up over levels of funding. That can all wait until 2024. They can go home and enjoy the holidays with their families and not pass much other legislation this year.
The second is that so far, the Inflation Reduction Act seems to be working to spur manufacturing in the United States. There are 22 new battery plants currently under construction. There's record investment in electronics manufacturing, and a number of European companies have announced their intention to expand green energy projects in the United States and not because of these subsidies. Now, of course, the real question about the success of the program is going to come when the subsidies stop, and you can judge how well the US has done in spurring this manufacturing in the US. But for now, Democrats are happy because it looks like the IRA is working. Republicans like the jobs, even though they didn't vote for the bill.
The third thing that both parties have to be grateful for is that there are no competitive primaries, which means that there's no choosing sides. There's no traipsing through the snowy fields of Iowa to campaign for one guy or another. Donald Trump is almost certain to win the Republican nomination, and Joe Biden faces no real challengers. So, both parties can marshal all their resources for the general election in 2024. And neither party is likely to go through a particularly divisive primary in the first half of the year.
Polling numbers of GOP candidates
The Graphic Truth: Who's leading the Republican primary?
If you know anything about the state of the Republican presidential race right now, you know that former President Donald Trump is leaps and bounds ahead of the pack. But the race is just getting started.
A lot can change in the first few primary states and debates, so we decided to track the polls in three early primary states to see if Trump holds onto his formidable lead or if another candidate emerges to give him a run for his money. These are where the numbers stood before the first debate. We will report back if the tides begin to turn.