We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Republican presidential candidate and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
DeSantis in a storm
Hurricane Idalia is set to make landfall on Wednesday in the US state of Florida. The storm will be the first of many this hurricane season, but it blows in at a sensitive political moment for state Gov. Ron DeSantis. The woke-bashing Republican is currently a distant second to Donald Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, but he’s also fending off an increasingly stiff challenge from the youthful upstart conservative tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. (Poll numbers here.)
If DeSantis handles Idalia well, it’ll enable him to look experienced and presidential, drawing a contrast with Ramaswamy’s scant political experience. Of course, if DeSantis flubs it, Idalia could deal a crippling blow to his campaign.
Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.
Christie takes aim at Trump
No one can win the 2024 Republican Party nomination for president without winning over millions of voters who like Donald Trump. For now, the polls say those voters are happy with Trump. This creates a dilemma for his rivals. All of them need someone to dent Trump’s popularity via direct attacks on the man and his candidacy. But no one wants to infuriate Trump supporters by leading those attacks, allowing other candidates to benefit. They all want someone else to lead the charge.
Cue Chris Christie, the former Trump rival-turned-ally-turned-caustic critic who will enter the race for the GOP nomination on Tuesday (former VP Mike Pence is set to launch his bid on Wednesday). The former New Jersey governor is currently polling at less than 1%, and he’s highly unlikely to win anything. But Christie has already gone where candidates like Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Nicki Haley, and others fear to tread by publicly referring to Trump as a coward, a loser, and a “puppet of Putin.” (He once blamed Trump for giving him COVID.)
It’s hard to say whether a Christie kamikaze candidacy might bring Trump’s high poll numbers back to Earth, but one thing is clear: Beginning Tuesday, the fight for the Republican presidential nomination is about to get louder.
2024 elections: Another likely Biden v Trump extravaganza
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.
What's the outlook for President Biden's reelection campaign?
This week, President Biden announced his intention to run for reelection in 2024, on the same day that he made the announcement that he was going to run for president in 2020. Already the oldest president in American history, Biden would be 82 years old on inauguration day if he wins, and 86 on his last day in office, putting a lot of attention on his running mate, Kamala Harris, who has proven herself not exactly ready for primetime in the three years she served as vice president, but will be once again Biden's running mate in '24.
Biden's announcement video put a lot of emphasis on a key theme of the last three years of his presidential campaigning, which has been democracy in the United States designed to create a contrast with Republicans, and in particular former President Donald Trump, who's under investigation by the Department of Justice for inciting the January 6th riots to overturn the results of the last election. Biden's very unlikely to face any serious opposition within the Democratic Party who are largely united around beating Republicans. And despite his advanced age and approval ratings in the low forties, they don't want to do anything to jeopardize their chances of doing that.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump is looking pretty good so far in the nomination battle. Nobody has yet to emerge that can seriously challenge him. Although it is very early in this race and there haven't really been any serious declared candidates as we await for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to finish the Florida legislative session this year, and probably declare sometime later this spring. A rematch between President Trump and President Biden would pit two of the oldest candidates ever in American history against each other, which probably plays in Biden's favor because it makes his age less of an issue on the campaign. But if DeSantis is the nominee at age 44, he can really create that contrast with President Biden.
Biden has a pretty good legislative record to run on with a very productive two years of bipartisan accomplishments. And so far, the economy, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, it has been pretty resilient, which is typically a nice tailwind for an incumbent seeking reelection in the United States. We are almost a year and a half out from votes being cast in this campaign, and not a lot legislatively is going to get done this year, which means that US politics will be continually dominated by these reelection cycles and expect to see your news feed clogged with the latest drama around former President Trump and the potential reelection of President Biden. Thanks for watching.
Two-party reckoning looms in America
US politics faces a unique moment. Both of the major political parties have leaders, but in each case, more than six in 10 Americans don’t want either to run for president in 2024. In the coming months, Democrats and Republicans will each face a reckoning, and the world will be watching closely.
Joe Biden
The president is in a tough spot. His approval numbers are circling the drain. Some 64% of Democratic voters don’t want him to seek reelection. No leader wants to admit failure by declining to run again, and Biden knows that unpopular presidents who opt out of reelection (Democrats Harry Truman in 1952 and Lyndon Johnson in 1968) or face tough challengers from within their own party (Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Republican George H.W. Bush in 1992) see their parties lose the White House.
If Biden did step aside, who might Democrats choose to replace him? Vice President Kamala Harris has a lower approval rating than Biden, and no Democrat with high political hopes wants to be first to draw daggers on a sitting president.
Donald Trump
Though he’s already announced informally that he will again run for president, many headlines featuring Trump’s name these days detail allegations that he attempted to steal the 2020 presidential election and tried to use violence against elected US officials, including his own vice president, to do it. That’s part of why 61% of Americans don’t want him to run, and half of Republicans want an alternative. The investigation of the Capitol Riot has persuaded even some Republicans that Trump has much to answer for.
Yet, Trump won’t be easier to dislodge from the position of party frontrunner than Biden. He still leads all likely Republican primary opponents by a sizable margin. Even if he gets indicted for alleged crimes related to the 2020 election, he’ll probably press ahead with a candidacy that could boost him politically and protect him legally.
And what happens if Trump runs for president and begins to lose the fight for the Republican nomination? His GOP opponents know that Trump might claim that votes are being stolen from him, and the party knows Trump can threaten at any time to run in 2024 as an independent, crippling the GOP’s chances of beating Biden or any other Democrat.
Three thoughts
There has never been a moment in modern US presidential politics when the parties faced such a significant reckoning simultaneously.
If Biden and Trump are the nominees, there’s no compelling evidence that Democrats disappointed with Biden or Republicans uncomfortable with Trump will stay home on Election Day and miss their chance to vote against the hated other party. In other words, an historically unpopular candidate can still become the next president.
The world is watching. Decision-makers across Europe, in China, inside the Kremlin, and in the Middle East need to know where US politics is headed — and understand they’d better hedge their bets on America’s direction.
This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media, a subsidiary of Eurasia Group that offers balanced, nonpartisan reporting, and analysis of foreign affairs. Subscribe to Signal today.
Trump speaks during a campaign rally when he was US president in Jacksonville, Florida.
What We’re Watching: GOP mulls Trump 2.0, UK leadership race heats up, energy crisis could get worse
Republican voters divided on Trump 2024
US Democrats seem to have soured on President Joe Biden, but are Republicans ready to turn their backs on former President Donald Trump? The short answer is: it’s complicated. A fresh New York Timespoll shows about half of GOP voters don't want Trump to run a third time in 2024, but the other half do. The main takeaway is that Trump's once-formidable hold over the Republican Party has waned somewhat since (tumultuously) leaving office in January 2021, yet he still wields considerable influence with the base. Since hardcore Trump fans are more likely to turn out for primaries, he has been busy endorsing candidates for November’s midterm elections, so far with mixed results. The big test for Trump's stature within the GOP will be whether his picks can win in the general — especially the battle for control of the Senate, which Republicans are eager to flip (and only need one seat to do so). Meanwhile, there's growing chatter that Trump may announce his reelection bid before the midterms, which he hopes will freeze a potentially crowded GOP field in which Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is now gaining on him.
Tory succession race narrows
The race is on to select the UK’s next prime minister following Boris Johnson’s tumultuous tenure. His resignation on Friday launched the search for a new leader of the Conservative Party. Eight candidates are vying to replace him: Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat, Nadhim Zahawi, Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, and Jeremy Hunt. Each has passed the first hurdle of getting at least 20 Tory MPs to endorse them — Johnson notably declined to back a possible successor so as not to hurt anyone’s chances. While the list confirms the ambitions of frontrunners like Sunak and Truss, it surprisingly did not include prominent figures Priti Patel and Sajid Javid. The most challenging steps are still to come, starting with the first round of voting on Wednesday in which all 358 Tory MPs will cast their first ballot, with subsequent votes held this week and next until the list is whittled down to two. Hustings will be held nationwide in August, before roughly 160,000 Conservative Party members vote by mail to choose the winner who will be named on Sept. 5. So much for a quiet British summer.
The worst-ever global energy crisis
Russia’s war in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions have made a difficult energy situation worse, and there is no end in sight. “The world has never witnessed such a major energy crisis in terms of its depth and its complexity,” the head of the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday. “We might not have seen the worst of it yet.” We’re already seeing fallout in the form of energy shortages and higher costs for both consumers and businesses, with economic and political consequences in every region of the world. The impact on Sri Lanka’s economy explains what all those protesters were doing in their president’s swimming pool last weekend. It explains eight days of protests in Panama, where demonstrators forced their government to lower fuel prices by 24%. It’s why European leaders are now racing to fill their inventories of natural gas to at least 80% capacity by November to prevent Russia from making the tough coming winter much tougher. And it’s the primary reason US President Joe Biden is in Riyadh this week to shake hands with a crown prince whose kingdom he once called a “pariah.”
Trump scores at CPAC: what it means
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
I thought I would talk today, I haven't spoken much about former President Trump since he's no longer president and I intend to continue that practice. But given this weekend and the big speech at CPAC and the fact that in the straw poll, Trump won and won by a long margin. I mean, DeSantis came in number two, but he's the Governor of Florida, CPAC was in Orlando, so that's a home court bias. In reality, it's Trump's party. And I think given all of that, it's worth spending a little bit of time reflecting on what that means, how I think about these things.
Because if he runs again and this is a long ways away, thank God, because I'm not ready for election coverage, but it's pretty clear that right now he would be the ex-ante favorite and probably get the nomination easily. And that means that he could easily become president yet again. It reminds me of Bolsonaro in Brazil. I mean, somewhat it's almost astonishing to believe that Bolsonaro was elected president to begin with, given who he is, what he is, what he represents, and yet elections coming up late next year, he could easily win again. He's in the low forties right now, approval in Brazil, that being the case, this is a guy that could become president again. So, you have to take yourself out of how you feel about these people and recognize what they represent in terms of political influence and power. And I say that because when I think back on the coverage that I did for four years of the United States during Trump's presidency, I have to admit, I found the Trump presidency emotionally exhausting, because almost everyone was outraged all the time. I mean, the volume... It's like Spinal Tap, the volume's always up to 11. Every tweet, every video, every news program with how much they love this guy or how much they can't stand this guy, incredibly divisive and that made it extremely challenging to be analytically balanced and fair. Especially, because I personally find Trump and have always found Trump since he first started flirting with the idea of running for office, completely unfit for public service for lots of reasons, right?
I mean the orientation towards authoritarianism, the personal corruption, the incompetence, the extraordinary narcissism and all of those things made me feel he was completely unfit. And to have that feeling, and that's an emotional response to someone who is president of the United States, and as a political scientist, the job is, if you're doing it right, is to be a referee, it's to call balls and strikes, it's not to be on one team or the other. That's actually extremely difficult to do consistently when you know that you have, if you're being honest with yourself, an emotional feeling. And by the way, being a referee doesn't mean bothsidesism, it doesn't mean 50-50, it means calling balls and strikes. Some people get walks, some people strike out, you're trying to be objective.
So, I mean, that doesn't mean that suddenly you give people that represent QAnon an equivalent platform to those that represent science and truth. No, QAnon is ludicrous and stupid, and they should be dispensed with as such. Flat earthers, anti-vaxxers, Obama birtherism, which remember, is how Trump kind of got his start in terms of presidential campaigning, all equally bullshit, none of them deserve the time of day. What it means is to take the emotions out of it. It is to try to call balls and strikes for Trump just as you would for someone that you don't have that emotional agita about. And it's admittedly much harder when everyone is screaming all the time. And I would say that there were a few lessons that I take away from that.
The first is to consistently recognize the limitations of presidential power. In other words, just because something is being tweeted, doesn't mean it's becoming policy. And understanding what is doable and what is not doable. It's also the whole, not a coup. I mean, if the military is not involved, a professional military in the United States, that consistently reports to the people, is independent from the executive, from the Joint Chiefs, to all of the former Secretaries of Defense, up to the rank and file in the military, the National Guard, you name it, all of them are completely separate from Trump. And that reality of patriotic service that continues in the United States, hasn't eroded in the United States. Very important to recognize that when you see lots of shiny objects that are being thrown around by either the former president or by the media that is covering.
Secondly, a recognition that the administration is broad, it is not just Trump himself. And therefore, assessing what the administration as a whole is doing their policies, their efforts, how aligned they are with previous Republican policies, how aligned they are not. Draining the swamp was not something that was being done, but appointing lots of conservative judges absolutely is. I mean, all of these people that hate Trump that say that Trump completely subverted the Republican party, well, actually a lot of his policies were aligned with the Republican party. Why? Well, because it wasn't Trump that was driving them, it was the administration that was driving them, or it was the Republicans in the legislature that was driving them. That's important too.
Also, the need to recognize when they do something that is successful. Even if you know that people that follow you are going to come after you for saying that or be disappointed. So, like the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, you may not like the execution, but the actual deal is an improvement on previous NAFTA, something that could have been done before, wasn't, now is, you say, "Yes, that's actually an improvement in policy." And I've spent time looking at all of the policies that have been engaged in under the course of Trump that were obvious successes, improvements. The Abraham Accords, another obvious example, the peaceful breakthroughs in diplomatic relations between Israel and a number of Arab States in the broader Middle Eastern region.
And then of course, calling out things that are poor policy, that are thoughtless, that are the process breaking down. The extraordinary amount of personnel churn, for example. Leaving the World Health Organization, or even worse, Trump organizing mask-free rallies in the middle of a pandemic, leaving the Paris Accord. I mean, all of these things, again, when you're focused on the policy, as opposed to the person, a lot easier to say, "Okay, this makes sense, this doesn't make sense. Let's talk about that, let's divorce it from individual feelings and emotions."
And then the funny thing is, and this was an interesting lesson for me, right after the election, right after Fox News called Arizona and it was clear that Biden had won, it was the end of the Trump administration, and so I, after four years of trying to be intellectually fair about what I did and didn't think about the Trump administration, trying not to be driven crazy by all of the divisiveness, basically saying, "okay everybody, so now Trump's gone, Biden's going to be president, now is the time to reach out to your neighbor, to your friend, your former friend, the member of your family that's a Trump administration and say, 'Look, I know how you feel.'" And I thought that from my perspective, at that time, very narrowly, I was thinking, "well, people aren't Trump supporters or Biden supporters, people are human beings and the amount of their humanity that's consumed by politics is tiny." I mean, what you really are is a soccer mom or you're into football or you're into tennis, or you like to go out and drink with your buddies or all those things that define you more effectively than who you happen to have voted for. And all of us, that is true for all of us, but what I hadn't appreciated enough given being in my head of, "I'm going to do my best to be analytically correct," all of that, is that the divisions in the United States driven by Trump and exacerbated by the media, made people on the other side feel abused.
I mean, four years of abuse, Trump won by being such an incredibly toxic and divisive candidate against the other side, us versus them in America. And when you've been in a relationship like that for four years, the first thing you're prepared to do when finally, you see the end of that tunnel is not say, "Okay, let me reach out to the person that's abused me." No, no, it's this catharsis that you need, it's this extraordinary outpouring of emotion. And as someone who focuses more on international affairs in the United States, it reminds me of the way the United States has for a long time treated developing countries, right? Which is not our problem, right? I mean, we're not treated as equivalent human beings, they may or may not be expedient for the United States, but actually it's really about us, it's not about them. Whether you talk about exploitation of resources or military presence, and yeah, we talk a great game on human rights, but the reality is, "what is in it for us?" Because it's America first, whether we say that or not.
And when you go and talk to someone that isn't American about US foreign policy, that as on the other side of that, whether in Central America or in Sub-Saharan Africa or South Asia, Southeast Asia, you don't start with a conversation of, "Well, let me explain to you why we should all have a kumbaya moment right now," you actually need to listen to a lot of anger that comes from the relationship with the United States. And so, the fact that there was this immense hostility to me for having dared to suggest that the Americans that had just won their election against Trump after four years of the anger and of the feelings of abuse should let bygones be bygones, they thought I was objectively insane, or worse, really ill-intentioned, and came after me hard. And I... That was a learning process frankly, I wrote underneath my initial posts I'm like, "Hey, or alternatively, if I got this completely wrong and you'd like to tell me to fuck off, please tell me to fuck off." And I think that it was a useful lesson.
Number one, do not take yourself seriously, right? I mean, you get things wrong, and you admit that you get them wrong. You missed something, you admit you missed something. But also, frankly, getting the entire country for a couple of days to tell me to "fuck off," was a little bit of my effort to help bring the country together. If that we could agree, all of us could agree on one thing, it was telling Ian to "fuck off" right after the election, and that actually felt like a public service, so I was happy to do that.
I hope everyone's good. Again, be safe, avoid people, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Why Mexico’s president waited so long to congratulate President-elect Biden
Weeks after President-elect Biden was declared the winner of the 2020 US election, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO for short) was one of the last world leaders to congratulate him. In fact, he waited until December, after the Electoral College certified its vote, to join Russian President Vladimir Putin and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro in being some of the last world leaders to contact the President-elect. Acclaimed journalist and Univision news anchor Jorge Ramos explains why the Mexican leader waited so long and if the delayed felicitations bode ill for US-Mexico relations.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Can AMLO Live Up to Mexico's Critical Moment? Jorge Ramos Discusses
This time, Trump's impeachment will have Republican support
Jon Lieber, who leads Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, shares his perspective as Congress considers a second impeachment:
Big story this week is the president of the United States is about to be the only president ever to be impeached twice by the House of Representatives. Articles of impeachment should pass the House on Wednesday morning. The difference between this impeachment and the last impeachment is that this time there will be Republican support for the removal from office. A Senate trial can't begin until probably after the president has left office however. So this really isn't about kicking him out. It's about holding him accountable for the riot that happened at the Capitol last week, and potentially disqualifying him from ever running for future federal office. All eyes will be on the Senate and while it doesn't look likely that he will be convicted there, should some of the more prominent leaders in the Senate come out in favor of his impeachment, I think you may find the 17 votes you need in order to convict Trump.
A long shot at this point, but the president's behavior over the last week has not earned him any allies amongst Republicans and is starting to alienate some of their donor base from supporting the Republican Party going forward, which could potentially be a huge problem even after President Trump is out of office. President Trump himself is facing some recriminations about the riot and is losing a lot of sponsorships at his properties. This could lead to future financial pressure on the president, which would of course only increase the importance for him to stay politically relevant as that would be a source of fundraising in an influence in the Republican Party.
So a big historic week here in Washington. With the inauguration next week as well, you have the potential for future violence here in Washington, DC, although with all the defense forces that are armed and the new fence around the Capitol building, that probably seems a lot less likely. However, federal officials are worried about violence at state capitals around the day of Joe Biden's inauguration.
So, 2021 not the quiet year we were expecting. We'll see what happens next.