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Trump 2.0 cabinet picks: "Loyalty is the currency of the moment"
2020 is not 2016, and when it comes to the second Trump term, the sequel is going to be quite different from the first go-round. Donald Trump’s Cabinet picks already mark a sharp departure from the team he put together during his first term, says New York Times national security and White House Correspondent, David Sanger. Sanger joins Ian Bremmer on the episode of GZERO World.
Based on some of Trump's picks so far, new administration, Sanger explains, Trump's cabinet will likely be filled with a mix of hardline politicians, TV personalities, and some high-profile figures, many of whom have already left Democrats and Republicans in shock. Ideology doesn't matter anymore, Sanger explains, because “loyalty is the currency of the moment” in Trump’s world. And Trump’s "revenge nominees" signal his desire to dismantle government bureaucracy. A change that Sanger says "is exactly what the supporters of President Trump were looking for." Against the backdrop of two global wars and a looming trade war, Trump’s incoming administration could reshape the global world order like never before.
Watch the full episode: Trump foreign policy in a MAGA, MAGA world
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What Trump’s cabinet picks reveal so far
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
This is what we're watching in US politics this week: It's Trump's transition, of course. Lots of activity happening over the course of the week with some unexpected developments, including a lot of very unusual cabinet appointees. Sean Duffy at Department of Transportation, former "Real World" star and congressman, who has very little experience with transportation other than presumably driving a car, and of course, competing on the "Real World/Road Rules Challenge" is going to be in charge of the transportation department.
Other picks like Pete Hegseth have been a little more controversial. The former Army National Guard member and Fox News host has been accused of sexual assault. Not a great look for the incoming Secretary of Defense. But he's nowhere near as controversial as the recently withdrawn pick, Matt Gaetz, the firebrand Congressman from Florida who resigned his seat in order to become Trump's attorney general, and then found out that no Republican wanted him in that job.
Gaetz's withdrawal will allow some of the more controversial attention to be focused on people like RFK Jr. as the Secretary of Health and Human Services, somebody with a long career in the nonprofit management space, but no experience in public administration and who's been extremely critical of the US's Public Health Administration, including on toxins in foods, additives in foods, vaccines, and the approval process for them. And he's tapped into a strain of anger among Republicans at the public health apparatus that they say failed to protect the public during the COVID-19 epidemic, pointing to inconsistent and sometimes unnecessary masking guidelines. Things like social distancing, keeping the schools closed, and of course the vaccine recommendations that a lot of Republicans rejected during that pandemic. RFK's confirmation odds, however, look pretty good if you look at the relatively warm reception that he's been received with by most Republicans.
One area that's still totally in doubt for the most part is Trump's economic team. It's been two weeks since the election, there's no treasury of the secretary, there's no USTR. There is a commerce secretary pick, another Trump ally who has no experience in public administration, Howard Lutnick, a lot like Wilbur Ross in the first administration, but potentially leaving Trump's trade czar, Robert Lighthizer, without any clear role. So there's a lot more clarity on the national security side than there is on the economic side for now. That may change over the weekend. And of course, the one thing with President Trump is you could always expect the unexpected.
Donald Trump is seen here at a Jets football game next to his campaign manager Susie Wiles, on Oct. 20, 2024. The president-elect has just named Wiles his White House chief of staff.
Who will Trump’s team be?
At last count — yep, they’re still counting ballots from last week’s US election — Republicans looked set for a clean sweep: taking not only the White House and Senate but possibly the House too. With 18 House races yet to be called, the GOP is leading in seven and needs to win just four for a majority.
Attention now turns to the president-elect’s naming of names for the first cabinet of “Trump 2.0.”
Here’s what we know:
Trump has made just one appointment so far: He has named Susie Wiles as the first-ever female White House chief of staff. The 67-year-old veteran Florida political operative ran Trump’s presidential campaign, helping to secure his stunning comeback.
We also know for sure that two people won’t be in Trump’s cabinet: Nikki Haley, who served Trump as UN ambassador but also ran against him in the 2024 primary, and Mike Pompeo, who was Trump’s secretary of state during his first administration.
No other appointees have been made official, so lots of Republicans are jostling for 15 Cabinet positions and various advisory roles.
Names being floated for secretary of state, the US top foreign policy role, include Richard Grenell, former ambassador to Germany and acting DNI director; former national security adviser Robert O’Brien, former Iran envoy Brian Hook, GOP Sen. Bill Hagerty of Tennessee, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
The US Treasury secretary position, which is the top financial position in the US government, is likely to go to one of five men: Robert Lighthizer, the arch-protectionist who helmed the US tariff war with China as Trump 1.0’s US trade representative; billionaire hedge fund managers Scott Bessent and John Paulson; former SEC chair Jay Clayton; and Larry Kudlow, Trump’s former National Economic Council director.
For interior secretary, which oversees management of federal lands, including their use as energy sources, the top names include South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, as well as North Dakota’s billionaire Gov. Doug Burgum — both were once considered veep candidates for Trump. Burgum, meanwhile, is also on the shortlist for energy secretary, along with Dan Brouillette, who held the post last time around.
We’ll be keeping an eye on official appointments for these and the other Cabinet positions, as well as for indications of what portfolios go to key supporters like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — who may be named a White House health and wellness adviser or even become secretary of health and human services – and Elon Musk, who has himself suggested being named to helm a new department focused on government efficiency.Robert F. Kennedy Jr at Supreme Court in Mineola, New York to appeal a ballot suit.
What can RFK Jr. do for Donald Trump?
Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is expected to exit the presidential race and endorse Donald Trump at his rally in Arizona on Friday. Trump is also holding a rally in Phoenix today, and the choice of location is no accident: Arizona is famous for its independent voters, whom both Democrats and Republicans are desperate to win over ahead of an inevitably close election.
Potential quid pro quo. On Tuesday, Kennedy’s running mate, Nicole Shanahan, told an interviewer the campaign was weighing whether to “join forces” with Trump and suggested that Kennedy would do an “incredible job” as secretary of health and human services, a controversial choice given that Kennedy is a vocal supporter of the anti-vaccine movement. Trump later confirmed that he would probably “consider” appointing Kennedy to some role.
Election impact. Five percentof the voting population prefers Kennedy, and an August NPR/PBS/Marist poll found that that breaks down into 2% of Democrats, 3% of Republicans, and 12% of independents. Since voters who identify as Republican or Democrat would likely vote for their party’s preferred candidate in a two-way race, most of the votes up for grabs are independents.
“Trump will benefit marginally from Kennedy’s exit and endorsement,” says Eurasia Group’s US analyst Noah Daponte-Smith,as he will “likely gain one or two percentage points, but unlikely anything more. Many of Kennedy’s supporters either won’t vote or will vote for another third-party option.”
Independent US presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville, Tenn., on July 26, 2024.
RFK Jr. to endorse Trump
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. the strongest third-party US presidential candidate in a generation, has reportedly decided to leave the race and cash in his chips – with Donald Trump.
The eccentric, conspiracy-minded, anti-corporate crusader – best known for his vaccine skepticism – polls around 5% nationally and in key swing states. He has drawn outsized support from Black, Latino, and young voters.
RFK Jr. is expected to formally announce his withdrawal in a big speech in Arizona on Friday and is in talks with the Trump campaign about a formal endorsement. Trump, who is also campaigning from the Grand Canyon state that day, has said he’d be open to giving RFK a position in his administration if he wins.
How will this affect the race? RFK’s endorsement would certainly counterprogram the climax of the DNC and could deliver Trump a few extra points worth of voters that he’ll need in a tight election. Polling has consistently shown RFK drawing more Trump-leaning voters than Biden-leaning ones.
Still, bringing aboard RFK – a conspiracy-theory aficionado whose brain has been eaten by a worm and who recently admitted to a bizarre bear-killing cover-up – could also play into one of the Democrats’ main strategies, says Clayton Allen, the US director at Eurasia Group.
“If he joins the Trump campaign,” says Allen, “that may exacerbate the Democrats’ “weird” attacks.”
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., waves to the crowd at a campaign rally at Brazos Hall Monday May 13, 2024.
RFK Jr’s clout: Use it or lose it
While the main election drama over the past few weeks has been about the shakeup on the Democratic ticket, the specter of an eccentric ex-Democrat continues to hang over the election.
Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – anti-corporate crusader, vaccine skeptic, and frequent conspiracy theorist – polls at about 5%, the highest of any third-party candidate since Ross Perotin the 1990s. RFK’s numbers are particularly strong among Latinos (24%) and voters under 30 (10%.)
RFK can’t win. But his endorsement could decide a tight election. RFK’s support in Pennsylvania and Michigan (5-6%) is larger than the likely margin of victory. Small wonder that Trump, whose voters are particularly enamored of Kennedy, recently sought his endorsement in private (or so he thought), and that the former president was angry when podcaster Joe Rogan appeared to endorse RFK Jr last week. Rogan almost immediately walked it back.
But RFK’s juice is waning. A wave of controversies – ranging from a worm eating his brain to a bizarre incident involving a dead bear – have hurt him. His favorability rating has been negative for months now. Although he made it onto the Texas ballot, New York booted him for using a bogus address. Other states may follow suit.
Meanwhile, fresh enthusiasm for Kamala Harris’ campaign may counteract the disillusionment that drives third-party interest. With less than three months to go before Election Day, RFK Jr. has to use his kingmaker’s power or lose it. Will he?Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks to attendees during a press conference in New York, U.S., May 1, 2024.
RFK Jr hits a roadblock
Robert Kennedy Jr. is falling further behind in the race for the White House. The independent presidential candidate won’t qualify to appear in next Thursday’s televised presidential debate because, contrary to claims made by his campaign, he hasn’t gathered enough signatures to appear on enough state ballots to reach 270 electoral votes. He has also failed to reach 15% support in enough approved national polls. (He got three but needed four.) In response, Kennedy filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission accusing CNN, which will host the debate, of violating campaign finance law.
Another sign of trouble: Kennedy’s campaign raised just $2.6 million in May, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission. In April, it reportedly brought in $10.7 million, but $8 million of that was donated by Kennedy’s vice-presidential running mate, wealthy philanthropist Nicole Shanahan. No word on whether Shanahan will continue giving to the campaign.
It remains unclear whether Kennedy’s candidacy poses a bigger threat to President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump, but both men would prefer to avoid the uncertainty RFK’s campaign might create.
An Afghan man stands on the debris of damaged houses after the recent earthquake, in the district of Zinda Jan, in Herat, Afghanistan October 9, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Thousands killed in Afghan quake, Thais caught in the fighting, RFK’s new approach, China claims to hit economic targets, US wealth gap grows
2,400: At least 2,400 people have died in Afghanistan following Saturday’s 6.3-magnitude quake near the western city of Herat, the country’s third largest. While the search for survivors continues, the devastating tremor brings new hardship to an area already hard hit by the economic crisis. The World Bank estimates that two-thirds of Afghan families are at risk of losing their livelihood.
11: At least 11 Thai nationals who were working as guest laborers on farms in southern Israel have been kidnapped by Hamas, and another dozen were killed in the weekend attacks. Over 30,000 Thais work in Israel, and at this stage they are thought to be the largest group of foreign nationals — not dual citizens of Israel — to have been taken hostage, though at least two Mexicans, three Brazilians, a Nepali, and a British citizen are also believed to be in Hamas’s hands.
14: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced on Monday that he will run for president as an independent, not as a Democrat, and polls show he is on track to be the most popular third-party candidate since Ross Perot in 1992. Two polls found 14% of voters would choose him over either former President Donald Trump or President Joe Biden.
5.1: The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a state-run think tank, says China’s economy will grow by 5.1% in the fourth quarter, putting the country on the path to meet its annual growth targets. International investment banks, however, remain more skeptical given Beijing’s reluctance to provide short-term stimulus funding.
26.5: The top 1% of American households, in terms of annual income, held about 26.5% of the nation’s wealth in 2022, up about 1.5 percentage points from 2019. The share owned by the bottom 40% of households, meanwhile, fell from 7% to 6.7%, so despite the perception that workers gained leverage during the pandemic, it didn’t result in them getting a bigger slice of the pie.