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Russia-Ukraine war escalation
In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer analyzes how the Russia-Ukraine war grinds on with no sign of winding down any time soon.
Moscow has intensified strikes, hitting Ukraine’s most important government buildings. Ukraine, meanwhile, is expanding missile capabilities alongside growth in drone production.
Still, the front lines remain largely static.“Over time, the ability of the Ukrainians to continue to muster the fighting force…is deteriorating,” Ian warns. He add that it leaves Putin convinced “the longer they engage in this war, the less capable the Ukrainians will be… and that means that Russia's going to be in a better position to demand outcomes in terms that they want.”
The risk extends beyond Ukraine’s borders. With Trump’s Russia policy faltering and China offering Putin diplomatic support, Ian cautions the conflict is “increasingly not just a proxy war, but a direct hybrid war,” raising the danger of escalation in unpredictable ways.
India vs. Pakistan: Rising tensions in South Asia
Could tensions between India and Pakistan boil back over into military conflict? Last May, India launched a wave of missile attacks into Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, claiming it was targeting terrorist infrastructure. After four days of dangerous escalation, both sides accepted a ceasefire, putting an end to the most serious military crisis in decades between the two rival nuclear states. On GZERO World, former Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Khar joins Ian Bremmer to discuss Pakistan’s perspective and where the conflict stands now.
Khar argues India didn’t provide credible evidence to justify the attacks and that Pakistan’s response challenged the narrative of India’s conventional military superiority. She sees China as a stabilizing force in the region and says it’s important for Pakistan to maintain broader strategic relationships within southeast Asia and the West, including the United States. Though the conflict has cooled, nerves are still on edge in Delhi and Islamabad. Now, more than ever, Khar says, it’s crucial for Pakistan to continue to strengthen its military capabilities, including nuclear deterrence, to defend its sovereignty.
“The India-Pakistan region is home to one fifth of humanity, and to put them at stake because of political engineering happening in your own country is very callous,” Khar says, “The moment one nuclear state decides to attack another, you do not know how quickly you go up the escalation ladder.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.